Coronavirus - COVID19

[MikefromOH]

I get you are a sarcastic dude, but does it have to be everything?

Just asking. If so, cool. But, I am curious.

 

[riggins44]

The VA DMV is closing today until the first of April. Governor has issued a 60-day extension on driver licenses, plate renewals, and such. A daycare in Poquoson was closed yesterday due to a child having a family member that is presumptive positive. Both deaths in VA has been in the James City County, Williamsburg, and upper York County area.

This is uncharted waters. With a snowstorm or hurricane, we know about when and how long it will last.

It is really hurting business.

 

[Boone]

All bars and restaurants in NC close until further notice tonight at 5pm.

Crazy. And bring me another double...

 

[MikefromOH]

Ohio Primary has been delayed

 

[Shi no Tenshi]

Texas has been leaving a lot of the, let's say more "draconian", measures to the cities themselves. Austin just put a kabosh on all gatherings over 10 people closed all restaurants and such.

I fail to see how this virus is any worse than any other pandemic that has occurred though. I understand the desire to stop its spread, but why are such severe measures needed this time, versus, say, the H1N1 or SARS pandemics?

I've heard one person suggest it's possible that people can become reinfected with it, so it would go through the population continually. If so, that at least makes some amount of sense, but I haven't seen that corroborated by any research so far. Has anyone else seen anything of note on this?

 

[Boone]

Texas has been leaving a lot of the, let's say more "draconian", measures to the cities themselves. Austin just put a kabosh on all gatherings over 10 people closed all restaurants and such.

I fail to see how this virus is any worse than any other pandemic that has occurred though. I understand the desire to stop its spread, but why are such severe measures needed this time, versus, say, the H1N1 or SARS pandemics?

I've heard one person suggest it's possible that people can become reinfected with it, so it would go through the population continually. If so, that at least makes some amount of sense, but I haven't seen that corroborated by any research so far. Has anyone else seen anything of note on this?

It’s a virus so it won’t be ‘eradicated’. Vulnerable folks might have to get vaccinated in the future just as they do with the flu. Corona viruses are not new. This is just a new strain that humans are more susceptible to.

 

[Fear The Spear]

All bars and restaurants in NC close until further notice tonight at 5pm.

Crazy. And bring me another double...

You can still order Carryout - or Delivery. Just no "eating in".
And if you live in Boone's part of NC, you can easily get Moonshine, so there's another option

 

[Win4us]

We’ll all have it at some point so no use in worrying about it. Hell we could of already had it and not known to be honest, zero sense in panicking. And if you’re at the store and you see a tp hoarder let them know what a pos they are.

If you guys are interested in the VA’s info concerning it here’s the link I was just texted. Probably nothing you guys didn’t already know though.

Veterans programs for health and wellness | Veterans Affairs

Our Veterans programs for health and wellness offer information, resources, and treatment options to help you stay healthy. Find out how to get help quitting tobacco use, preventing disease, managing your weight, and maintaining your mental health.

www.publichealth.va.gov

 

[Boone]

Without personalizing it too much, I’m more worried than the average guy my age. Besides having only half a lung on the right, I have diaphragm damage. And I work in healthcare every day, which doesn’t help things much either.

 

[Fear The Spear]

One of the scare tactics they keep using is vagueness.
We keep hearing stuff like "50 people tested positive so far in ______ state"
But they pretty much never mention their condition ; exactly how bad.
So people are instantly associating testing positive, with being in dire condition.
Do most or all of those people just have a sore throat ?
Or is it more serious ?
That's the question and answers we need.

Another scare tactic is saying ______ celebrity has just decided to self-quarantine.
Again, that sounds much more worse than it may actually be.

 

[Shi no Tenshi]

It’s a virus so it won’t be ‘eradicated’. Vulnerable folks might have to get vaccinated in the future just as they do with the flu. Corona viruses are not new. This is just a new strain that humans are more susceptible to.

I guess that's kind of my point. I know how the pathologies of these things work; what it's different on this one that caused this level of response?

 

[Boone]

Yeah, didn't mean to talk down to you by any means. But there's nothing unique about people getting the same virus over and over - that's all I meant. It happens every year, with cold and other viruses, with maybe the only difference the virulence of mutated strains.

I can't definitively answer your question, not sure anyone could at this point. To an extent, there's NOTHING unique about COVID 19 that makes it inherently more dangerous to the average person. It's pretty contagious, probably more contagious than the flu from what I've heard. I'm not buying the morbidity rates I've heard, because while we know when people die as a result of the flu, because we nearly always test for it, there hasn't been reliable testing. I suspect that when we know more, Coronavirus won't turn out to be any more lethal some of the other common viruses (like those that cause pneumonia). On the plus side, it seems to be a relatively mild risk to kids (thank God) and younger adults. It sounds like it has a longer survivability rate on surfaces than some viruses (I've heard up to 72 hours) meaning you can put your hand on a table that someone touched 3 days ago and potentially still be infected.

In no way would I ever minimize the risk of any infectious agent especially one that is moving so quickly through the populace around the world. But the misleading thing is that if we were watching flu during any given flu season, it would be equally alarming, and probably resulting in more deaths than this current virus has or will. But it's the age we live in. 24/7 news, social media, an unsettled, anxious, distrusting world that's watched a lot of 'Outbreak' and apocalyptic movies and too many seasons of the Walking Dead. The hysteria is real and probably nearly as dangerous as the virus itself.

I went to my local Food Lion tonight and literally half the shelves were empty. Produce was gone. People are in line with carts just filled with shit they don't really need. I saw a couple of 300 lb adults with 12 cases of soda. Because, you know - that's exactly what they need to survive the zombie apocalypse. I'm pretty disappointed in what I've seen both in Virginia and NC over the past week.

We're a far sight away from the Greatest Generation. Pretty much every man for himself from what I can see.

Since I'm not hoarding and I'm not being a hysteric - I may end up living on squirrels in my back yard by the time the dust settles. #RantOver

 

[Neophyte]

Dallas has closed all bars, restaurants, nightclubs, lounges, and gyms. That started at midnight last night.

Gatherings over 50 people are prohibited. Most area churches moved services to virtual this last weekend.

My local Kroger looks like it's auditioning to be a set in the live action movie of Fallout 4. Sunday morning there were no potatoes, tomatoes, onions, salad, bread, ground beef, chicken, or rice. I've never seen anything like it - not even a couple days before Thanksgiving.

The level of response has a lot to do with the state of our healthcare system, Shi. Boone is more qualified to speak to this than I but as I gather, flu season seriously strains our medical resources in this country as it is. If this thing gets rolling, it would overwhelm our ability to respond. I've seen estimates from the CDC where, if left unchecked, this virus could generate a need for 5 times the number of hospital beds we have in the whole of the country. That is what is doing Italy in right now. Doctors are having to make choices about who gets care and who doesn't because they don't have the facilities, personnel, and resources to care for everyone.

On a personal side note, I am discovering just how isolated my daily life is. I haven't had to change a thing in my day to day life and I am still outperforming every single suggestion on how we should be behaving. Not sure if that is awesome or pathetic.

 

[Boone]

I have no doubt that there is the potential to overwhelm our Critical Care and Intensive Care Units - where there are only so many of those beds, staff trained to care for that type of patient, and critical illness equipment (primarily ventilators). Just as an example - I work in a 300 bed hospital which is a pretty average sized hospital in the US. We could probably manage 25-30 vent patients if we absolutely had to at one time. I've never seen anything close to that # - ever - even in the worst of flu seasons. So if we got to that point or beyond, it would present major problems. I don't know what's transpired in Italy or what their healthcare system is like so I can't really make comparisons. I guess the biggest unknown for me is whether all of these patients are requiring ventilators or if they are being hospitalized for other support, such as IV fluid resuscitation or just monitoring. I just don't know enough to know how worried to be. MY biggest concern is staffing. Because hospitals in the US are chronically short-staffed. Hospital nursing is hard, demanding, and over the years nurses have become increasingly abused and underappreciated. We struggle to retain staff and staff the units we have even prior to this. Closing beds and even units and diverting patients to other hospitals because we don't have enough staff to care for them is routine - PRE-CORONA VIRUS. So having a bunch of nurses come down with the virus would be a nightmare, not to mention since the majority of nurses are female, many have their kids at home to worry about on top of everything else. One final thing I didn't mention is that, unlike most respiratory viruses which tend to result in upper respiratory infections, I have heard that COVID19 is more likely to result in lower respiratory infections - where the actual lungs themselves are infected and breathing more likely to be impacted.

Unlike most folks out there, I actually think our state and national governments and healthcare leaders are doing a hell of a job doing everything they can to mitigate the risks and try to prepare and avoid the worst case scenario. Like everyone else, I hope all of these efforts pay off and get us to a place where the virus is not a major risk, at least until we have a viable vaccine before it rears its ugly head again.

 

[fansince62]

Texas has been leaving a lot of the, let's say more "draconian", measures to the cities themselves. Austin just put a kabosh on all gatherings over 10 people closed all restaurants and such.

I fail to see how this virus is any worse than any other pandemic that has occurred though. I understand the desire to stop its spread, but why are such severe measures needed this time, versus, say, the H1N1 or SARS pandemics?

I've heard one person suggest it's possible that people can become reinfected with it, so it would go through the population continually. If so, that at least makes some amount of sense, but I haven't seen that corroborated by any research so far. Has anyone else seen anything of note on this?

There was experience in China/Hong Kong that folks who survived an initial bout with the virus were susceptible to reinfection for up to a month: the idea is that the immune system is weakened considerably on the first go-around.

It would be interesting to see a global heat map showing the cross-hatch of higher infection rates and higher Chinese emmigration/business presence. This, for instance, is beginning to appear to be one cause (aside from a poor/slow start at quarantining) in Northern Italy. Would also like to know if this actualluy had its inception in the Wuhan P4 lab or eating the wrong critters. Finally, closed state or not, not much coming out of NK.

On the positive side, I guess: SK has been aggressively testing. Last I tracked this a few days ago about 4% of SK tests were popping positive.

 

[Fear The Spear]

Unlike most folks out there, I actually think our state and national governments and healthcare leaders are doing a hell of a job doing everything they can to mitigate the risks and try to prepare and avoid the worst case scenario. Like everyone else, I hope all of these efforts pay off and get us to a place where the virus is not a major risk, at least until we have a viable vaccine before it rears its ugly head again.

Just one main thing I still don't understand.
When SARS, MERS, Swine Flu, and several other examples of virus were at this same stage as CV, why didn't we see similar measures, shutdowns, etc ?

 

[fansince62]

Just one main thing I still don't understand.
When SARS, MERS, Swine Flu, and several other examples of virus were at this same stage as CV, why didn't we see similar measures, shutdowns, etc ?

A case can be made that politics had a hand - just as it does now. But I think you already know that.

 

[fansince62]

Stay healthy all......Boone needs the membership!!!

 

[Fear The Spear]

A case can be made that politics had a hand - just as it does now. But I think you already know that.

You're right.
This is going to ruin small businesses all over the country. Literally put them out of business.
And yea, I get that human lives are more important than businesses, but you have to objectively measure the true threat/risk.
I have not seen any evidence that the threat justifies the shutdowns.

 

[Beetlejuice]

Just one main thing I still don't understand.
When SARS, MERS, Swine Flu, and several other examples of virus were at this same stage as CV, why didn't we see similar measures, shutdowns, etc ?

Because they were never at this stage. There have only been 7 pandemics in human history. In our lifetimes, nothing has ever spread this rapidly or easily, with such a high fatality rate. All of the diseases you mentioned combined had about 30,000 cases. And they weren't global.

With Covid-19, the death toll has increased by roughly 25% every day since it started here. Worldwide, that number is about 20%. People see 108 U.S. deaths and blow it off as nothing. But yesterday that number was 85. The day before, 69. Based on that daily increase, if nothing were to change, the death toll here at home would be 250,000 by mid April, and Would wipe out the country by June. Thankfully measures have been taken to prevent that, but this is taken more seriously because it's far more serious than anything we've ever seen personally.