Coronavirus - COVID19

[Beetlejuice]

I have not seen any evidence that the threat justifies the shutdowns.

Italians thought the same thing. Now they've seen as many deaths as China, with 30% of the cases. This is not to be taken lightly. And this is coming from a guy who downplays everything.

 

[Beetlejuice]

I'm not a medical professional. I don't even play one on tv. But something has recently been brought to my attention by my parents. I wrote them regularly from prison. My mom read a letter to me tonight that I sent her in December of 2018. In it, I was telling her how worried I was about a new virus. they quarantined the entire prison, because in the span of less than a week 170 inmates were sickened by a virus, and 7 of them had died. All of them were taken to Duke medical center for testing, where they were told they had some type of virus, but they had no idea what it was or how to treat it. After a month of quarantine, it was gone. All total there were over 300 cases and 20 deceased. They never figured out what it was, it just went away.

The thing I'm now wondering, is what is the likelihood that this event over a year ago was the same or a similar strain of coronavirus?

 

[Fear The Spear]

Because they were never at this stage. There have only been 7 pandemics in human history. In our lifetimes, nothing has ever spread this rapidly or easily, with such a high fatality rate. All of the diseases you mentioned combined had about 30,000 cases. And they weren't global.

With Covid-19, the death toll has increased by roughly 25% every day since it started here. Worldwide, that number is about 20%. People see 108 U.S. deaths and blow it off as nothing. But yesterday that number was 85. The day before, 69. Based on that daily increase, if nothing were to change, the death toll here at home would be 250,000 by mid April, and Would wipe out the country by June. Thankfully measures have been taken to prevent that, but this is taken more seriously because it's far more serious than anything we've ever seen personally.

I read somewhere that the SARS mortality rate reached 35% and the MERS mortality rate reached 10%, while the CV rate hovers between 1 and 3%.
If that's accurate, then they each bypassed this stage of CV by quite a bit.
Are you getting different data than that ?

 

[Boone]

In our lifetimes, nothing has ever spread this rapidly or easily, with such a high fatality rate. All of the diseases you mentioned combined had about 30,000 cases. And they weren't global.

This is not factual. We do not have reliable data on morbidity with COVID-19. Folks are concentrating on the numerator with no reliable data on the denominator. Without knowing definitively how many are infected it is literally impossible to determine what % of folks will die as a result of infection. Honestly Nathan - it’s passing that kind of data around that is fueling panic and hysteria. That in no way minimizes this is a risky virus. But we do not know morbidity rates. The CDC doesn’t know, the WHO doesn’t know, and we certainly do not know. It is highly contagious - and that part of your post is accurate.

As for it being a ‘pandemic’ - there have been many whether they were labeled as such or not. HIV killed exponentially more people than this virus likely will. Flu killed an estimated 80,000 - in America alone - in 2018. Flu is an annual pandemic. We need to keep this in perspective. The difference so far with COVID-19 is that it spreads extremely quickly and we do not have a vaccine for it as we do with flu. Once we do it will likely join annual flu vaccination as a routine annual threat we proactively address.

 

[Boone]

Just to put things in perspective Beetlejuice - the worldwide death total for COVID-19 just surpassed 8000 (that total may be suspect) and of course it could grow much higher - but you see the contrast.

 

[Chris]

You can still order Carryout - or Delivery. Just no "eating in".
And if you live in Boone's part of NC, you can easily get Moonshine, so there's another option

I’d love to see some pics of the moonshine delivery driver‘s cars.

 

[Henry]

Italy has been completely overwhelmed by this. They didn't take the virus seriously at the outset and now have 31,506 confirmed cases, with 2,503 deaths. That's about an 8% fatality rate.

In South Korea, where they immediately began aggressive testing and preventative measures, have only seen about 8,400 confirmed cases and 84 deaths ... a fatality rate of about 1%.

Both countries have very similar population sizes.

Maybe we don't know exact morbidity rates but those numbers are so strikingly different I don't think you can simply ignore them. I think just looking at different approaches to this virus we can see that taking this seriously as soon as possible significantly reduces it's impact. I think we'll find out very soon which approach the US has taken. We are months in. Have any of you been tested? I know I haven't. Tests are still not widely available here. The best thing we can do, the only thing really, is to stay away from each other and 'flatten the curve.' Yes, we all might get it in the end, but the less strain we can put on our hospitals by spreading this out, the better.

Be careful and stay safe.

 

[SkinsOrlando]

Listening to Rand Paul yesterday he had mentioned that this generation is the only generation that's been insulated from this type of pandemic, essentially after polio there hasn't been anything remotely like this and that since it's a new experience for such a large part of the population that's why we've seen panic like not seen before, just an interesting take. I work for a finance company that provides lines of credit to small businesses, my phone rings non-stop asking if we're cancelling payments etc. I'm hoping my corporate office does make a substantial move to help with these monies coming due otherwise I'll be spending the next 2 months or so just shutting their business down and in turn, maybe my own branch. Yesterday I ordered pizza from my local mom n pop joint even though I'm working on changing my eating habits just because I know they're struggling, tipped the driver very well, he stated "That's more than usual" my response "You need it more than me right now." For the small businesses not closed and those not under quarantine, go buy something, even if it's a dollar, this is going to be a roller coaster ride.

 

[Elephant]

I'm not a medical professional. I don't even play one on tv. But something has recently been brought to my attention by my parents. I wrote them regularly from prison. My mom read a letter to me tonight that I sent her in December of 2018. In it, I was telling her how worried I was about a new virus. they quarantined the entire prison, because in the span of less than a week 170 inmates were sickened by a virus, and 7 of them had died. All of them were taken to Duke medical center for testing, where they were told they had some type of virus, but they had no idea what it was or how to treat it. After a month of quarantine, it was gone. All total there were over 300 cases and 20 deceased. They never figured out what it was, it just went away.

The thing I'm now wondering, is what is the likelihood that this event over a year ago was the same or a similar strain of coronavirus?

This piqued my curiosity, so I tried to find some info on a quarantine in a North Carolina prison where 20 inmates died from a mystery virus. I'd think that would be a major story, so I wanted to read about it.

I could not find anything, anywhere.

You mind providing some sources? I'm very interested in this story.

 

[Shi no Tenshi]

Listening to Rand Paul yesterday he had mentioned that this generation is the only generation that's been insulated from this type of pandemic, essentially after polio there hasn't been anything remotely like this and that since it's a new experience for such a large part of the population that's why we've seen panic like not seen before, just an interesting take. I work for a finance company that provides lines of credit to small businesses, my phone rings non-stop asking if we're cancelling payments etc. I'm hoping my corporate office does make a substantial move to help with these monies coming due otherwise I'll be spending the next 2 months or so just shutting their business down and in turn, maybe my own branch. Yesterday I ordered pizza from my local mom n pop joint even though I'm working on changing my eating habits just because I know they're struggling, tipped the driver very well, he stated "That's more than usual" my response "You need it more than me right now." For the small businesses not closed and those not under quarantine, go buy something, even if it's a dollar, this is going to be a roller coaster ride.

Doing the same thing. Had no intentions of eating out much right now, but those smaller restaurants you like the food of may not be there in a couple months if this thing drags out, so I've been going to get food from them to hopefully do my part to keep them open.

Hopefully this doesn't go on for more than a few weeks, I don't like the outlook of how devastating it could be.

 

[Shi no Tenshi]

Italy has been completely overwhelmed by this. They didn't take the virus seriously at the outset and now have 31,506 confirmed cases, with 2,503 deaths. That's about an 8% fatality rate.

In South Korea, where they immediately began aggressive testing and preventative measures, have only seen about 8,400 confirmed cases and 84 deaths ... a fatality rate of about 1%.

Both countries have very similar population sizes.

Maybe we don't know exact morbidity rates but those numbers are so strikingly different I don't think you can simply ignore them. I think just looking at different approaches to this virus we can see that taking this seriously as soon as possible significantly reduces it's impact. I think we'll find out very soon which approach the US has taken. We are months in. Have any of you been tested? I know I haven't. Tests are still not widely available here. The best thing we can do, the only thing really, is to stay away from each other and 'flatten the curve.' Yes, we all might get it in the end, but the less strain we can put on our hospitals by spreading this out, the better.

Be careful and stay safe.

I know part of that is the limits in care for Italians given the surge, but also partially the age of the population. Stats are showing this thing being highly impactful to those above 60, but below that, it drops off rapidly.

Societal differences have played a part as well...most of the Asian countries around China know what to do after the SARS and Bird flu outbreaks, and get that thing locked down rapidly.

 

[Boone]

This peaked my curiosity, so I tried to find some info on a quarantine in a North Carolina prison where 20 inmates died from a mystery virus. I'd think that would be a major story, so I wanted to read about it.

I could not find anything, anywhere.

You mind providing some sources? I'm very interested in this story.

As soon as you provide your sources on Rivera coveting Jameis Winston I’m sure he’ll get right on it

 

[MikefromOH]

my wife and I are both working from home full time and the boys are with us. We believe that Ohio will be closing schools for the rest of the school year. Doesn't make much sense to have them go back middle/end of May just to get out a few weeks later. They will already be in a routine with the curriculum sent home every week by their teachers, and we are coming up with quite the routine.

They now can earn $1 a day IF: they make their bed, fold their pajamas, pick up their clothes from the night before, and brush their teeth. We even got them little wallets so when they go to the store they can pick out the toy they want.

We do a little art in the morning
sight words after
tablet time
Cincinnati Zoo is doing a daily 30 minute video of an animal and even do a little "quiz" after
Lunch
Outside to run
Back in for video games (hand eye)

then we do what we normally do after work. Is it weird? Yes. but, honestly, if I had the ability and education to I would home school them and keep them on the property as much as I could.

 

[Henry]

I know part of that is the limits in care for Italians given the surge, but also partially the age of the population. Stats are showing this thing being highly impactful to those above 60, but below that, it drops off rapidly.

Societal differences have played a part as well...most of the Asian countries around China know what to do after the SARS and Bird flu outbreaks, and get that thing locked down rapidly.

South Korea has a significantly older population than the United States, and yet there have been fewer deaths and a lower fatality rate there from the virus than here in the US. I think your second point is the big one. Getting on top of a situation like this is the most important thing.

 

[Fear The Spear]

Something for everyone to think about.
This is absolutely inevitable, or at least realistic in the very near future.
America will face a pandemic/epidemic, or some other non-disease disaster, that will be 10, or 20, or 30 times worse, or even worse than that.
Look at the panic that is happening now.
So, what kind of panic, pandemonium, shutdowns, etc will happen, when we face a much bigger threat.

 

[Fear The Spear]

I know part of that is the limits in care for Italians given the surge, but also partially the age of the population. Stats are showing this thing being highly impactful to those above 60, but below that, it drops off rapidly.

Societal differences have played a part as well...most of the Asian countries around China know what to do after the SARS and Bird flu outbreaks, and get that thing locked down rapidly.

When Coronoa hit Italy, were they like "Fughetoubit !!!" ?
I mean, here's the video proof.
Warning : Languages uses the F word.

 

[MikefromOH]

a 2 year old boy in Ohio has just tested positive for it. He lived in the home of a confirmed case. It can and will spread to all ages.

and THAT is my fear!

 

[MikefromOH]

When Coronoa hit Italy, were they like "Fughetoubit !!!" ?
I mean, here's the video proof.
Warning : Languages uses the F word.

you know that is Eddie Murphy's voice in coming to America, right?

 

[Boone]

There’s no way not to be anxious about this. One would have to be brain-dead not to be. I’d take heart in knowing this doesn’t *seem* to be a major threat in terms of severe symptoms and mortality in kids and young adults with no other health issues. Not minimizing concern as we all have it, but that seems to be the case.

 

[MikefromOH]

There’s no way not to be anxious about this. One would have to be brain-dead not to be. I’d take heart in knowing this doesn’t *seem* to be a major threat in terms of severe symptoms and mortality in kids and young adults with no other health issues. Not minimizing concern as we all have it, but that seems to be the case.

I hear ya, and I don't think you are saying its dumb to worry. But, like I said before...I don't want to be the dad that who ends up proving stats wrong. I am not a fear mongerer, just an overly protective dad.