Ron Rivera, coaches and the front office have done a lot of the right things when it comes to the 'forms' of organization. We are no longer signing free agents to mega-bucks deals, we are resigning our own key players (Allen, McLaurin) without rancorous negotiations and finding some performers in the late rounds (Kurl - Round 7) of the draft.
So, we are no longer the laughingstock of the league other than the mop-up on Snyder's culpability for mismanagement prior to the time Rivera came in the door.
But that only means Washington has risen from the depths of despair to being a mediocre football team. It's become one of the anonymous teams in the NFL, whose highlights and lowlights now sometimes don't even make it onto ESPN or other sports recap shows.
What Washington has NOT done is show that the collective brain-trust in the front office and coaching staff are above average in their methods or the results obtained.
In the area of player personnel the team has made some key mistakes that has equated to one step forward, two steps back over the past 2 years.
In each case I think the 'need' was identified by the organization, but the selection of player and attempts at resolution have not shown themselves to be successful.
Examples:
Jamin Davis. The Commanders needed an impact linebacker and Micah Parsons was selected earlier in Round 1. We took Davis at #19 despite the fact linebackers after Parsons were not that highly rated for Round 1 in 2021. Davis rang every bell at the NFL Combine and workouts with his physical ability. But smart clubs saw that he was also very raw, having started just one season at Kentucky, a team that while in the Southeast is not a top echelon program. Davis to me had second round written over him but Washington pulled the trigger much earlier. That has come back to hurt the team as not only has Davis been predictably slow to transition to the NFL game based on his inexperience but the opportunity cost was that Washington didn't select impact player(s) that were closer to contributing.
William Jackson III. Again, the Commanders properly identified outside corner as a critical need for the defense after 2020. Jackson was sought after in free agency and has good size and speed and was 28, in his NFL prime. But what Washington did was take a player that excelled in man coverage and put him in a strict zone scheme where he was defending territory rather than the opposing player. For a man cover corner to be put into a zone scheme once he has established himself on the outside is a echo of what the team did with Josh Norman, a career zone corner thrust into a cover role with 4.6 speed. Fitting a round peg in a square hole. Instead of looking to perhaps use Jackson in man coverage on one side and zone the other side for Fuller as Richie did for DG and the team later did for Cris Dishman, Del Rio and the staff simply plugged him into what they were already doing and ignoring they were paying extra for that very man coverage on the outside.
Dyami Brown. Brown has shown absolutely nothing since being drafted and successful teams like the Chiefs and Ravens would have cut or traded Brown once we knew what we had in McLaurin and then drafted Dotson to go with Curtis Samuel. Brown is so limited, he not only doesn't rate reps on offense in the passing game but he doesn't return punts or kicks either. Instead we have a former #7 pick doing that. This was a blown #3 pick and while ALL clubs make draft mistakes, the key is to move on from them and not cover them up by keeping the player on the roster to avoid criticism.
DT depth. Here I have no problem with Allen's contract and I have no issues with the team hedging its bets on giving Payne a long-term extension for big dollars. Drafting Mathis in Round 2 was the right decision to make given the upcoming transition in 2023. The fact Mathis was injured so early in the season is unfortunate and you really can't blame the club here. HOWEVER, an NFL team usually carries 4, 5 or even 6 DTs (some are DE/DT combos). As backups behind Allen and Payne for 2022 with Mathis a rookie, Washington went cheap on the DL and has two fringe NFL players in Daniel Wise and Casey Toohill on the active roster. These players from what I see are practice squad level performers and were not going to be legitimate options to replace any of the top 3 if there were injuries. The team ignored the position in free agency almost completely when there were serviceable veterans available to bridge to 2023. So, now we are down to searching the waiver wire for undrafted free agents or lower round draft picks cut by other teams such as Jeter and Ridgeway.
Is the front office being told to keep expenses down in 2022 by Snyder? It seems the club hasn't wanted to commit any monies for 2023 after the deal for McLaurin went through and the team traded for Wentz.
Which brings me to the Wentz decision. It is being reported now that Wentz was perhaps our #3 pick at quarterback in the offseason. Evidently Jimmy G was almost a Commander absent his decision to have offseason shoulder surgery. Mariota was supposedly an option as well.
So, the team after a year with Taylor Heinicke as the full-time starter correctly assessed that he was a good backup quarterback who could win a couple of games for you in the case of injury but was not a 16 game starter.
But the decision-making on the WHO to solve the problem was once again questionable. Jimmy G was a successful starter because he had a top 5 defense and playmakers on offense that took the pressure off him. When the pressure was on him to carry the team, he failed.
Mariota has been mostly a career backup. He can run, congrats, so can all of our running backs.
Eventually 3 draft picks went to Indy for Wentz. Wentz is 29 years old and making $28M for 2022. Those were a lot of picks for a guy whose presence on the Colts roster had them hamstrung on cap space to make other moves. In my mind you either give up fewer picks or make Indy retain some of his salary to make a deal work. It is interesting that Matt Ryan cost the Colts less in trade than Wentz cost Washington.
But those are logistics. Was Wentz the right move? Was ignoring QB in the draft or trade market in 2020 and 2021 the right ones? Wentz has a strong arm and has streaks not unlike his predecessor Fitzpatrick where he can get hot. But he also is limited in his decision-making and ability to read defenses and can be a turnover machine as well. That type of quarterback profiles as a top backup or a spot starter brought in when there are injuries. Is a quarterback that needs great pass protection and everything else clicking to be mostly productive and on the positive side of his TD/INT worth the investment?
To me, he's a better bet than Fitzpatrick at 39 in 2021 to be a more productive player over 16 games. But that's not saying that much.
Again, the team has correctly identified the need for position upgrade but they seem stuck in cement in refusing to trade enough to move up and take a quarterback in the draft or make a major trade for a veteran. Maybe it's the fear of taking another Robert Griffin or Sam Darnold and waking up later to having potentially blown 3 or 4 high picks. Also, I think there is a bias on the part of HCs with experience as defensive coaches in thinking they can win with a 'get a guy with an arm, make some big plays off play action and then run the ball' mentality, discounting the need for a Mahomes or Herbert.
So, overall I think this team from the HC/President down to the front office and coaches are average. And this team was 7-9 in 2020 and 7-10 in 2021, mediocre but not awful numbers. 2022 seems to be shaping up as a 6 or 7 win campaign, I think the defense will get better as the season progresses and it's a third place schedule. So, more of the same.
Yes, Jack Del Rio could be fired. Again, I don't think he has necessarily made the most of his personnel in terms of scheme/fit and he doesn't seem to want to change anything but rather stay the course. I am not a fan of the 3 safety package on early downs and only depending upon 2 linebackers to support vs the run. I think except for long-yardage conversion plays, that's a move that will be attacked morning, noon and night in the NFL.
Who schemes to have Jamin Davis covering Devonta Smith? We already know that Mayo and Bostic can't cover period. That leaves us with ONE linebacker with some cover skills, Holcomb.
And we are fine with that. Evidently, we are fine paying Jackson III top third money at CB to continue to look lost in the zone scheme.
I thought this was according to Ron going to be a season in 2022 of a rise in the standings and the end of the 'rebuild' stage (??).
Instead at cornerback we are going with Wildgoose and Castro-Fields as our backups, both of whom were acquired on waivers after the cutdown to 53 around the NFL.
Those seem like moves a 2-14 type team makes to pick up some guys that have some upside and MAY develop in the future, not the moves of a team ready to compete for a wildcard or division.
So, in the end when the issue of what's going wrong comes up the answer to me is it's a team/system problem.
I don't see the clear strategy in place that you see in KC where Reid drafted Mahomes and then went about building a defense with key free agent and trade acquisitions.
You could say the same thing about the Chargers who took Herbert and are drafting skill players on both sides of the ball to grow with him.
Wentz is not going to take Washington to a Super Bowl win either this year or in any real projection of future years.
So, what the hell are we doing? Treading water.
And after the 4-12 and 5-11 seasons under Jay Gruden with all of the team management dysfunction and scandals, finishing 7-10 and being mediocre is an improvement.
The question is - FOR HOW LONG?
