Capital Obsession: To The Draft!

[Hog Fever]

You guys who say Luck is making a mistake need to look at it from his perspective before anybody calls him an idiot. This is the type of young man who has a different set of priorities than the guy who wrote that article HogFever attached and the few who agree with him.

It's all about perception. He sees completing his education as more valuable. You guys see the money or potential of money lost. It doesn't make this kid an idiot.

If someone like Cam Newton decided to stay for his senior year if he was a Jr., he would be an idiot. His best chance at success in life is his football career. Luck has other options.

Sorry, all the noble stuff just doesn't hold water in this case. An education is a wonderful thing but what is the purpose of going to college? Is it really to become a more educated person or is it to prepare you to be able to enter the profession you want and make more money? If your goal was simply to be educated he could have taken other paths. Certainly playing football at all probably cuts into the time he could be seeking higher education. I've always thought that explanation was a red herring anyway.

If he was selected as a very high first round draft pick, even if they instituted a rigid salary scale, it would have allowed him to make life altering money with his very first contract, probably more than you and I will make in a lifetime. His stock will never have been higher than right now so where is the benefit to his long term future by staying? The college experience? Please.

He may play wonderfully next year and be drafted just as high as he would be this year...but maybe not. There are a million things that can happen between now and then that could change his situation. Besides, do you ever see him going to work at 60-70k a year as an architectural engineer after making 50 million or 10 million or 5 million for his first NFL contract and being a bust (in the worst case scenario)? I can't. So he's staying for a degree he will most likely never use.

He has a narrow window of time to be an NFL quarterback and the rest of his life (and the off-season) for intellectual pursuits. The kid has a right to do whatever he wants. It doesn't change the fact that it's just not that smart.

 

[Jimbo]

There are two sides to Luck's decision. The Business decision and the Personal decision. Is Luck making a poor Business decision? Abso-freakin-lutely. Is he making a poor Personal decision? I don't think we are qualified to judge that. Perhaps he wants another shot at a Heisman. Perhaps he wants to stay in school to help out his sister, who is also attending Stanford. Perhaps he doesn't WANT to wait on getting his degree. Maybe he's not ready to deal with the headaches the business side of the NFL brings.

We all have things we'd give up a few million dollars for if we figured we were still gonna get paid big money anyway. Many of us, including me, are greedy to the point where losing out on several million dollars is a big deal. The difference between $30 million and $50 million might not be that big a deal to him. After all, even a "paltry" $30 million is a LOT of money.

 

[Elephant]

Sorry, all the noble stuff just doesn't hold water in this case. An education is a wonderful thing but what is the purpose of going to college? Is it really to become a more educated person or is it to prepare you to be able to enter the profession you want and make more money? Tell that to someone who just finished college to become a teacher! If your goal was simply to be educated he could have taken other paths. Why? He must have wanted to play football too. Certainly playing football at all probably cuts into the time he could be seeking higher education. I've always thought that explanation was a red herring anyway. That is your opinion.

If he was selected as a very high first round draft pick, even if they instituted a rigid salary scale, it would have allowed him to make life altering money with his very first contract, probably more than you and I will make in a lifetime. His stock will never have been higher than right now so where is the benefit to his long term future by staying? The college experience? Please. Again, perception. You believe one way that he obviously doesn't believe for himself.

He may play wonderfully next year and be drafted just as high as he would be this year...but maybe not. Not his priority as evidenced by his decision to stay. There are a million things that can happen between now and then that could change his situation. Besides, do you ever see him going to work at 60-70k a year as an architectural engineer after making 50 million or 10 million or 5 million for his first NFL contract and being a bust (in the worst case scenario)? I can't. So he's staying for a degree he will most likely never use. But no one will ever be able to take that away from him. Doesn't mean he couldn't have done it while being a pro QB, but he doesn't think so, obviously.

He has a narrow window of time to be an NFL quarterback and the rest of his life (and the off-season) for intellectual pursuits. The kid has a right to do whatever he wants. It doesn't change the fact that it's just not that smart. Again, I am not saying he is right or wrong, but you have to accept that it is your perception of smart, not necessarily reality.

Perception Hog. That's my point. Perception. You can try to justify his decision any way you want to meld with your perception of the facts. He is making the decision from his perspective not yours. To him, it could be a smart move.

 

[Rymanofthenorth]

Jake Locker, nuff said

 

[PF Chang]

What's your point? That you value money more than Luck does because he chose to stay in college for his senior year?

This kid has a different set of priorities than you do.

This could win the annual Office Space "Jump to Conclusions" mat award. I kid, but that was one hell of a leap from "Sam Bradford got 50 million guaranteed" to "I suddenly understand the priorities of a person I don't know the first thing about."

Really, my point was that fifty million dollars is an ASTOUNDING figure to risk. Nothing in life is guaranteed. Luck could suffer an absolutely catastrophic injury. We aren't talking about a 5th round pick here, he is the sure fire #1 pick in the NFL draft.

Not only are you apparently the authority on how I think, but you're also the authority on Luck. You have absolutely no idea why he stayed outside of the statement he released about finishing his degree, something that isn't mutually exclusive with entering the draft.

All in all, good for him. He's taking a risk but clearly it's what he wants to do. He'll have a great time during his senior year of college with his friends and his teammates. You can't buy that.

 

[Elephant]

This could win the annual Office Space "Jump to Conclusions" mat award. I kid, but that was one hell of a leap from "Sam Bradford got 50 million guaranteed" to "I suddenly understand the priorities of a person I don't know the first thing about."

Really, my point was that fifty million dollars is an ASTOUNDING figure to risk. Nothing in life is guaranteed. Luck could suffer an absolutely catastrophic injury. We aren't talking about a 5th round pick here, he is the sure fire #1 pick in the NFL draft.

Not only are you apparently the authority on how I think, but you're also the authority on Luck. You have absolutely no idea why he stayed outside of the statement he released about finishing his degree, something that isn't mutually exclusive with entering the draft.

All in all, good for him. He's taking a risk but clearly it's what he wants to do. He'll have a great time during his senior year of college with his friends and his teammates. You can't buy that.

Know the first thing about? From everything I have seen and read, the kid is an academic. He has stated clearly that he values his education, he made a commitment and is sticking to it. I am not jumping to conclusions, I am simply following a man on his word. He has been saying this all along, not just yesterday when he reiterated it by officially declaring his intentions to return. Nothing has been disclosed that would suggest otherwise. nothing but speculation from people who obviously prioritize money above the commitment Andrew Luck made to return to one of the most prestigious Universities in the world.

And I thought I understood what you were saying when you stated, "Fifty. Million. Dollars." But by using the question mark, I left you the option of clarifying, which you have. It appears you value the money more than Luck does. It's quite simple, between his words and his actions thus far, it is not a reach to suggest he doesn't value the 50 million he, almost assuredly, would get. So really, it wasn't much of a reach after all. I didn't claim to be an authority on you or Luck, simply drawing conclusions based on the information I am provided. Kinda like making the assumption after reading what you have written, you are a bit of a smart ass who likes to tongue lash people who question you. Am I an authority, no. Just simple observations, that's all.


Ryman, first thing I thought about when they said he was returning was Jake Locker. This could be the case. No one knows what the future holds. But returning for a senior year at Washington is slightly different than returning to college at Stanford.

 

[stevenaa]

There are two sides to Luck's decision. The Business decision and the Personal decision. Is Luck making a poor Business decision? Abso-freakin-lutely. Is he making a poor Personal decision? I don't think we are qualified to judge that. Perhaps he wants another shot at a Heisman. Perhaps he wants to stay in school to help out his sister, who is also attending Stanford. Perhaps he doesn't WANT to wait on getting his degree. Maybe he's not ready to deal with the headaches the business side of the NFL brings.

We all have things we'd give up a few million dollars for if we figured we were still gonna get paid big money anyway. Many of us, including me, are greedy to the point where losing out on several million dollars is a big deal. The difference between $30 million and $50 million might not be that big a deal to him. After all, even a "paltry" $30 million is a LOT of money.

The difference between $30 million and $50 million wouldn't mean much to me either. Lifestyle would be the same with either payday. But the difference between $50 million and the modest 6 figure income he'll likely earn if he's has a career ender is astronmical. Stating the obvious, I know, but it is just hard to see how anyone close to him wouldn't encourage him to take the advantage he's provided for himself. Even those to whom he committed to for 4 years. I can understand at that age wanting to finish another year and enjoy the school atmosphere. But that will turn into one huge regret if the unfortunate happens. It's difficult for a kid that age to truly understand that. It sure would have been for me.

 

[PF Chang]

Know the first thing about? From everything I have seen and read, the kid is an academic. He has stated clearly that he values his education, he made a commitment and is sticking to it. I am not jumping to conclusions, I am simply following a man on his word. He has been saying this all along, not just yesterday when he reiterated it by officially declaring his intentions to return. Nothing has been disclosed that would suggest otherwise. nothing but speculation from people who obviously prioritize money above the commitment Andrew Luck made to return to one of the most prestigious Universities in the world.

And I thought I understood what you were saying when you stated, "Fifty. Million. Dollars." But by using the question mark, I left you the option of clarifying, which you have. It appears you value the money more than Luck does. It's quite simple, between his words and his actions thus far, it is not a reach to suggest he doesn't value the 50 million he, almost assuredly, would get. So really, it wasn't much of a reach after all. I didn't claim to be an authority on you or Luck, simply drawing conclusions based on the information I am provided. Kinda like making the assumption after reading what you have written, you are a bit of a smart ass who likes to tongue lash people who question you. Am I an authority, no. Just simple observations, that's all.

Ryman, first thing I thought about when they said he was returning was Jake Locker. This could be the case. No one knows what the future holds. But returning for a senior year at Washington is slightly different than returning to college at Stanford.

Hey, I think everything you're saying is fair. I had no issue with the questioning part of your post, more the statement about my priorities based on a major assumption. I don't know if I value money more than Luck or not because I'm not in his position. In all likelihood I'll never have anything close to the same opportunity; in his world, it's a matter of pushing it a year back. It's not like he's Pat Tillman here, the guy is going to get paid huge either way (99% chance) and there are a lot of factors at play that neither of us may fully understand in his decision.

I apologize for the tone of my post. Coming from extremeskins, I am used to civil conversation quickly degrading into nothing but personal attacks and that's a major reason I came here. Takes a while to get adjusted I guess. Again, I am sorry for what seems to be misunderstanding.

(fwiw, I am selfishly glad he's going back to school. Now the Skins get a second crack at him...)

 

[Lanky Livingston]

The other factor here is that Luck's family isn't exactly hurting for cash - his dad is the AD of West Virginia, which is only the top of a very long list of well-paying jobs. Luck could probably do nothing for the rest of his life, and live it in luxury.

 

[Elephant]

I apologize for the tone of my post. Coming from extremeskins, I am used to civil conversation quickly degrading into nothing but personal attacks and that's a major reason I came here. Takes a while to get adjusted I guess. Again, I am sorry for what seems to be misunderstanding.

(fwiw, I am selfishly glad he's going back to school. Now the Skins get a second crack at him...)

Yeah, would be nice to have a character franchise QB for a long time to come like an Andrew Luck.

I appreciate your apology a great deal. I think that is what is great about this site. The posters here have the ability to maintain respectful discourse. It goes a long way when someone can do what you did. I hope you will accept my apology for calling you a smart ass.

Back to our regularly scheduled Draft Thread. to never bringing Cam Newton to Washington!

 

[Rymanofthenorth]

El, thats a great point, nobody knows what the future will bring. BUT, we are reasonably sure it will bring a rookie salary cap, and we are also certain that unless Luck has another season of personal superlative play, its very likely he just cost himself in the realm of 30 million dollars especially if he isnt a consensus #1 pick next year. Bradford got 50 mil guaranteed, while Luck is likely to get somewhere near 20 mil (according to the financial pundits who are pretty sure the League will force through a rookie salary cap) and thats if he remains a #1 pick.

I like the kid, and before the era of the supercontract would have applauded his decision but now he is one hit away from regretting that decision his whole life.

I do see your points tho and Im hoping he doesnt regret his decision.

 

[Jimbo]

The difference between $30 million and $50 million wouldn't mean much to me either. Lifestyle would be the same with either payday. But the difference between $50 million and the modest 6 figure income he'll likely earn if he's has a career ender is astronmical. Stating the obvious, I know, but it is just hard to see how anyone close to him wouldn't encourage him to take the advantage he's provided for himself. Even those to whom he committed to for 4 years. I can understand at that age wanting to finish another year and enjoy the school atmosphere. But that will turn into one huge regret if the unfortunate happens. It's difficult for a kid that age to truly understand that. It sure would have been for me.

It's a gamble to be sure. He won't have Harbaugh running the show so the likelihood is that his production next season won't match what he did this year. As for injury, he obviously thinks the odds are with him. I'm sure he's well-versed by now in what a cutthroat business the NFL can be but he's obviously willing to gamble he won't lose that much money. The advantage he'll have is that teams might be willing to overlook a somewhat poorer showing by the team next year as long as he looks close to what he was this year. I'm hoping he doesn't screw the pooch.

Regardless of what he says, I still think he's looking at the possibility of a Lockout and maybe a shortened NFL season. If it were me, I'd make the jump. Then again, I'm greedy like that.

 

[KDawg]

Do we know what the ramifications are if a team drafts someone and the league goes into lockout state with that player unsigned? Conventionally, they go back into the draft the next year, I believe. However, with a lockout, does the same rule apply or does a team retain that player's rights?

I don't see many teams doing anything personnel wise during a lockout period, which is why if a player isn't signed pre lockout, who knows what happens.

 

[Hog Fever]

I don’t want to beat this to death here and I understand your points El, but my perception has nothing to do with my main points. I hope we can agree on a these facts.

- If he declared for the draft all information currently available has him going number 1 overall. His stock will never be higher. He can’t be drafted #0.

- If he’s drafted #1 overall he stands to make significantly more money than if he stays in school next year (where it should be nothing right?). He may or may not have to deal with a rookie cap. Either way the guy taken first overall makes more than anyone else taken that year. Money may not matter to him; I don’t know.

- Any number of factors could cause his value to slip and cost him millions or in the worst case scenario cost him a chance to play ball at all. Maybe this doesn’t matter to him either.

- Any degree he might be interested in could be obtained at any point in his life after football. Stanford would be more than happy for him to come back to school after his playing time and have him pursue any number of degrees he might be interested in.

Now for a reasonable supposition:

If you are a QB in a big time program it seems reasonable that one of your goals in life would be to play pro football. You have had to give up a lot to get to that point in the first place and it’s the ultimate payoff for years of hard work. What kid doesn't dream of this at some point in their life?

Now, I’ll perceive:

If he wants to hang around college because he enjoys being BMoC (and there are no reports to support this that I’ve seen) then he’s a fool. Nobody will convince me otherwise.

If you want to make the argument that he’s staying in school because he wants to mature as a player and a person because he feels he’s not ready, I’ll listen to that (even though he didn’t say that). Honestly that could be better than a good thing, it could be great. That level of self understanding is not something I had at his age. Perhaps he not only wants to play in the NFL but to be among the best ever and he sees another year at QB in college, regardless of who is coaching or where he’s drafted next season, is essential to that. Bravo to you in this case sir.

If you want to make the argument that he just places such a great value on higher education though, which is what his initial statement suggests, that’s a heck of a lot harder to understand given the facts that Stanford is unlikely to close before his NFL career is finished. It seems to have no short or long term benefit unless he plans to work in that field before or instead of going to the NFL. Maybe I would have had to been smart enough to be accepted at Stanford to understand his reasoning.

He doesn’t owe me or any of us an explanation but based on the information he’s given us I think he’s making a mistake. To each his own though. We’ll see if this turns out to be the right decision.

 

[Rymanofthenorth]

I think thats the best argument for coming out, he cant get better than number one, even if there was no salary cap for rookies implemented, he can literally only go down.

 

[KDawg]

Anyone know the answer to my above ?

If teams dont lose the rights to a drafted, unsigned player because of a lockout, that would mean that if Luck came out and Carolina didn't sign him right away he'd spend a year with no football and no money.

I know normally an unsigned player goes back to the draft pool...

Is that the case in a lockout?
Posted via BGO Mobile Device

 

[Elephant]

He doesn’t owe me or any of us an explanation but based on the information he’s given us I think he’s making a mistake. To each his own though. We’ll see if this turns out to be the right decision.

I agree with the facts of your post. There is no disputing the value that has been placed upon him as a QB in the NFL, a #1 pick overall in the draft.

What you don't seem to understand or maybe I am just missing something is that your suppositions are based on your perception of how he should handle this decision.

Yes, he could come back and get his degree as he plays football in the NFL.

Yes, he could earn in the realm of 30 - 50 million dollars if he declared this year.

Yes, he likely stands to lose large sums of money by not coming out this year.

But, your idea that it is foolish to not take advantage of that money now is based on how you perceive the money/returning to school decision. My perception is that it is not foolish, rather admirable. I come to my conclusion from everything I have read about this kid and how I feel about a college education.

This kid has a tremendous earning potential. Look at his father. From what I see, this is a young man who is intent on fulfilling a commitment. Again, like I told PFChang, I suppose this because of the interviews and articles I have seen reported about the kid.

I will admit it would be foolish for me to believe this kid and his father have not discussed all his options and the ramifications of declining eligibility in the draft. His father is an Athletic Director at a Major University. They know what they're doing.

Who knows, he has another week to change his mind. I kinda wish he had waited until the deadline so we could have been speculating all week.

 

[PF Chang]

No hard feelings Elephant, just a misunderstanding -- thanks for being a good guy.

I saw on ESPN's bottom line that Luck consulted with Peyton Manning and Bradford about the decision. Both apparently advised him to stay in school. That's coming from two #1 picks who both knew they'd be no worse than #2 overall.

 

[stevenaa]

It's a gamble to be sure. He won't have Harbaugh running the show so the likelihood is that his production next season won't match what he did this year. As for injury, he obviously thinks the odds are with him. I'm sure he's well-versed by now in what a cutthroat business the NFL can be but he's obviously willing to gamble he won't lose that much money. The advantage he'll have is that teams might be willing to overlook a somewhat poorer showing by the team next year as long as he looks close to what he was this year. I'm hoping he doesn't screw the pooch.

Regardless of what he says, I still think he's looking at the possibility of a Lockout and maybe a shortened NFL season. If it were me, I'd make the jump. Then again, I'm greedy like that.

Greedy or just smart. As long as he doesn't get hurt, it will work out fine. Hopefully he won't.

 

[Hog Fever]

I agree with the facts of your post. There is no disputing the value that has been placed upon him as a QB in the NFL, a #1 pick overall in the draft.

What you don't seem to understand or maybe I am just missing something is that your suppositions are based on your perception of how he should handle this decision.

Ok, we agree on the facts. We're making progress here. Given those facts, and in his position, what would you do?