Capital Obsession: To The Draft!

[KDawg]

Lanky, ranging from indicates that those are the top guys in the draft.

I wasn't saying he'd be there. The point in listing twenty guys was to show just how much talent was in the draft. It wasn't saying what would be at the tenth necessarily.
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[PF Chang]

KDawg,

Have you watched film on Ponder? I think there's a significant dropoff after Luck and Gabbert as far as QBs go and would prefer we draft BPA at 10 or trade down. A team in the state that the Redskins are in should prefer to draft a "BPA" with elite potential as opposed to a QB with above average potential. Sadly, there is always next year's top-10 pick for a QB. One thing's for sure, it's going to be a long process.

 

[Lanky Livingston]

Lanky, ranging from indicates that those are the top guys in the draft.

I wasn't saying he'd be there. The point in listing twenty guys was to show just how much talent was in the draft. It wasn't saying what would be at the tenth necessarily.
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Thanks for the English lesson! I already know what "ranging from" means, but when you preclude that with "at the tenth pick, many high grade prospects will be there for the taking..." it doesn't say what you apparently wanted it to say. It means you think all the players you list WILL be there.

 

[KDawg]

You're a little chippy, aren't you? Heh.

I listed all the major prospects, Lanky. Obviously, some will be gone at ten.

Pf, no, I haven't yet. It's on my to do list.
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[PF Chang]

Completely open to correction here but this draft does not seem top-heavy in OL prospects. That's not good news.

DT Fairley looks solid but Auburn plays a 4-3, it seems like his best fit for us would be a 3-4 DE.

Even if Peterson somehow dropped to us, I think going CB would be more of a luxury than a need (provided Rogers resigns). I agree with the essence of KDawg's blog; we should be getting a premier player at 10 provided we don't reach for a QB (we should seriously keep in mind that it's probably not a good thing to draft the third or fourth best QB in the top 10; when would the fourth best DT go?)

What would help is an accurate ranking of team needs. IMO the progression is:

OL, QB, DL, LB, WR, S, CB, RB, TE.

 

[Lanky Livingston]

If somehow the heavens opened up and smiled on us and Peterson fell to #10, Shanahan and Allen would have to be completely mental to not take him. Luxury or not, Peterson is a game-breaking type player.

 

[Lanky Livingston]

You're a little chippy, aren't you? Heh.

I listed all the major prospects, Lanky. Obviously, some will be gone at ten.

Pf, no, I haven't yet. It's on my to do list.
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Just giving you an English lesson, friend.

 

[fansince62]

Completely open to correction here but this draft does not seem top-heavy in OL prospects. That's not good news.

DT Fairley looks solid but Auburn plays a 4-3, it seems like his best fit for us would be a 3-4 DE.

Even if Peterson somehow dropped to us, I think going CB would be more of a luxury than a need (provided Rogers resigns). I agree with the essence of KDawg's blog; we should be getting a premier player at 10 provided we don't reach for a QB (we should seriously keep in mind that it's probably not a good thing to draft the third or fourth best QB in the top 10; when would the fourth best DT go?)

What would help is an accurate ranking of team needs. IMO the progression is:

OL, QB, DL, LB, WR, S, CB, RB, TE.

PSU...eh? what years?

I'd switch the OL and DL order given projected talent in this year's draft. and, to be frank...if Shanny really, really thinks his QB is there at 10...take the guy no matter where Mayock or Kiper think the guy ranks out.

 

[Ax]

I'd switch the OL and DL order given projected talent in this year's draft. and, to be frank...if Shanny really, really thinks his QB is there at 10...take the guy no matter where Mayock or Kiper think the guy ranks out.

Yeah, I'm of the BPA at OL or DL camp. Then LB.
But, if Shanny wants his QB, go for it.

In my perfect world, we trade back to the end of the 1st, pick up another 2nd, or two, and a 3rd, or two. Then, with those 5 picks grab a combination of C/G - G/C - NT/DE - OLB - QB.

In no particular order, since, in my world, they are all future HOF'ers.

 

[PF Chang]

PSU...eh? what years?

I'd switch the OL and DL order given projected talent in this year's draft. and, to be frank...if Shanny really, really thinks his QB is there at 10...take the guy no matter where Mayock or Kiper think the guy ranks out.

By my list I meant what we need as a team, not necessarily what we should draft at 10. Though I personally hate the idea of drafting the third or fourth ranked QB at 10, obviously Shanny knows 1000x more than I do. (Though as I've mentioned, I am skeptical of his personnel decisions after he evaluated McNabb and brought him in). To make a long story short I agree with your post.

PSU from 2006-2010. Real world from 2010 - death. The real world is decidedly less fun, though I am no longer broke. You a PSU fan?

 

[fansince62]

By my list I meant what we need as a team, not necessarily what we should draft at 10. Though I personally hate the idea of drafting the third or fourth ranked QB at 10, obviously Shanny knows 1000x more than I do. (Though as I've mentioned, I am skeptical of his personnel decisions after he evaluated McNabb and brought him in). To make a long story short I agree with your post.

PSU from 2006-2010. Real world from 2010 - death. The real world is decidedly less fun, though I am no longer broke. You a PSU fan?

grad school 80-82. yes...though the whole Mann data fabrication episode and PSU whitewash has me upset.

"Let's go State...Let's Go State...roar Lions roar"...championship season back in 82 baby!

 

[Lanky Livingston]

Stanford announced Luck is returning to school for his senior season; that throws a monkey wrench in the draft for sure. I wonder if Harbaugh is gonna stay also?

With Luck out of the picture, the only sure-fire lock is Pat Peterson - I could see the Panthers taking him #1 overall. Would be a huge contract for a CB though...

 

[Burgundy Burner]

This could actually help the Redskins. Fewer QBs in the elite pool means that some teams will want to trade down. Knowing this, the Redskins may not need to surrender too much to move up. Gabbert is going to be very good and the Redskins may need to pay a small price to move up (some teams don't want to spend big bucks anyway - no problem for Dan Snyder though). Gabbert coming out surprised me a bit, but he has better intangibles than Luck imho.

Luck situation may not be over though. Harbaugh looks like he is going to the Dolphins and Luck may realize before the Jan. 15 deadline that waiting a year could cost him mucho millions, especially so when the rookie money pool is expected to shrink drastically in 2012 and beyond.

 

[Hog Fever]

Couldn't have said it better myself.

http://www.businessinsider.com/andrew-luck-stanford-nfl-draft-2011-1

 

[stevenaa]

This could actually help the Redskins. Fewer QBs in the elite pool means that some teams will want to trade down. Knowing this, the Redskins may not need to surrender too much to move up. Gabbert is going to be very good and the Redskins may need to pay a small price to move up (some teams don't want to spend big bucks anyway - no problem for Dan Snyder though). Gabbert coming out surprised me a bit, but he has better intangibles than Luck imho.

Luck situation may not be over though. Harbaugh looks like he is going to the Dolphins and Luck may realize before the Jan. 15 deadline that waiting a year could cost him mucho millions, especially so when the rookie money pool is expected to shrink drastically in 2012 and beyond.

Don't know about Gabbert, but Luck is making a ver poor decision. The only scenario where it doesn't cost him 10's of millions is if there is no Rookie cap, and I don't see that happening. Every other possible outcome has him loosing 10's of millions IMO, and if he has a career ender, he's really screwed. Bad, Bad decision.

 

[Elephant]

You guys who say Luck is making a mistake need to look at it from his perspective before anybody calls him an idiot. This is the type of young man who has a different set of priorities than the guy who wrote that article HogFever attached and the few who agree with him.

It's all about perception. He sees completing his education as more valuable. You guys see the money or potential of money lost. It doesn't make this kid an idiot.

If someone like Cam Newton decided to stay for his senior year if he was a Jr., he would be an idiot. His best chance at success in life is his football career. Luck has other options.

 

[PF Chang]

Last year Sam Bradford got 50 million guaranteed. Fifty. Million. Dollars.

 

[servumtuum]

There's a thread that started today on Luck's decision on that Packer site I visit and one of the posters had what I think was an interesting take on the idea of his decision costing him millions of dollars.

There very well may be a rookie wage scale for 2011, too. If the CBA gets done before the draft, there will be.

Also, if you're an NFL owner, and you select a guy #1 overall this year you know a couple of things:
-you hold his rights for the next football season
-there won't be football until there's a new CBA
-when there's a new CBA, there will be a rookie wage scale
-you have until training camp to get this kid signed.

Knowing all of that, why does anyone think an owner will pay a giant contract, like last year, to the #1 overall pick, even if a CBA isn't done by April. There is NO reason to sign the kid before the CBA; and the CBA will limit what the kid can make. So the rookie wage scale, in effect, has already cost the kid money. Even if the wage scale isn't in effect, the leverage is ALL on the team. They can offer him a modest contract and say "sign it, or re-enter the draft next year and you'll get a contract under the rookie wage scale and make even less."

So he's probably barely losing anything by waiting a year. Especially considering that the guy picking first this year (owner Jerry Richardson) HATES spending money and is at a lower-revenue team. There's no way Luck was getting a Bradford contract this year. There's just no reason to give him one.

 

[Elephant]

Last year Sam Bradford got 50 million guaranteed. Fifty. Million. Dollars.

What's your point? That you value money more than Luck does because he chose to stay in college for his senior year?

This kid has a different set of priorities than you do.

 

[fansince62]

You guys who say Luck is making a mistake need to look at it from his perspective before anybody calls him an idiot. This is the type of young man who has a different set of priorities than the guy who wrote that article HogFever attached and the few who agree with him.

It's all about perception. He sees completing his education as more valuable. You guys see the money or potential of money lost. It doesn't make this kid an idiot.

If someone like Cam Newton decided to stay for his senior year if he was a Jr., he would be an idiot. His best chance at success in life is his football career. Luck has other options.

well...ahemm....I'd pocket the change and finish my degree in the offseason. It's been done before.