Burner's Burning Questions: Grades, Predictions, Evals, Questions, 2019 Season

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Win4us

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We need an LT, there are 3 slated in the top 10, but at least 3 other teams likely choosing in the top 10 have LT needs, too. Unless there is a team who will throw the same picks we gave away for RG3, I wouldn't trade down and risk losing out on our LT for next 10 years. We won't get another shot at an LT outside the top 10 who can come in and start. Get what you can from Kerrigan and Williams in the off-season to get more picks.
Whether we grab one of those three lt's or trade down and dip into FA it's a tough decision, both views are appealing. Have no idea about the quality of some of these guys but as of now there's some tackles still in their 20's that are set to hit FA next year.

I think TE is supposed to be pretty thin in the draft this year, we could use two of those bastards as well

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/all/left-tackle/
 
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Elephant

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Whether we grab one of those three lt's or trade down and dip into FA it's a tough decision, both views are appealing. Have no idea about the quality of some of these guys but as of now there's some tackles still in their 20's that are set to hit FA next year.

I think TE is supposed to be pretty thin in the draft this year, we could use two of those bastards as well

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/all/left-tackle/

We need the LT of the future, one we can lock down for 8-10 years. That value simply cannot be underestimated.

If we can trade down 2 or 3 slots because we're in a position someone wants Herbert, that's fine. We can still get one of the better LT's in the draft.

I'd just assume draft Andrew Thomas and be done with it.
 
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fansince62

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I'ld prefer the OSU edge rusher. This franchise is not going anywhere until DS is gone. So what difference does it make?

DS ruined this franchise. It will require a total dismantling and rebuild. No way DS does that - and since he is the root cause - nothing will change until he is gone. Ax is right on one level, the TV money keeps rolling in. DS doesn't give a rat's patout what happens to the franchise while that state of affairs persists.
 

Ax

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Hang in there girls. Chachi really does love Joannie.
 

Elephant

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I'ld prefer the OSU edge rusher. This franchise is not going anywhere until DS is gone. So what difference does it make?

He's something special for sure. And, I wish I could not agree with you...but I can't.
 
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Burgundy Burner

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We need the LT of the future, one we can lock down for 8-10 years. That value simply cannot be underestimated.

If we can trade down 2 or 3 slots because we're in a position someone wants Herbert, that's fine. We can still get one of the better LT's in the draft.

I'd just assume draft Andrew Thomas and be done with it.
I'ld prefer the OSU edge rusher. This franchise is not going anywhere until DS is gone. So what difference does it make?

DS ruined this franchise. It will require a total dismantling and rebuild. No way DS does that - and since he is the root cause - nothing will change until he is gone. Ax is right on one level, the TV money keeps rolling in. DS doesn't give a rat's patout what happens to the franchise while that state of affairs persists.
I'ld prefer the OSU edge rusher. This franchise is not going anywhere until DS is gone. So what difference does it make?
/QUOTE]


He's something special for sure. And, I wish I could not agree with you...but I can't.
I agree with every word from Al and Brian here. Thomas would fill a huge need and the LT position would be manned by one of the best out there for a decade or more. However, this draft is deep in LTs and if the Skins trade down and pick up another first rounder or two, then they have many options.

Chase Young is even better than the Bosa brothers and Mack. He is comparable to Von Miller in his prime - maybe a tad better.
 

Ax

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Ah yes, the draft crap shoot.

SI had an article in April about draft myths.
https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/04/24/2019-draft-analysis-myths-ten-year-left-tackle-belichick-genius

9. The 10-Year Left Tackle
“You can plug this guy in at left tackle and not worry about that spot for the next 10 years,” dozens of draft analysts say about almost any left tackle taken in the first round. But why left tackle? And why 10 years? About 90 percent of the people making decisions on draft night will be making decisions for another team—or not at all—10 years from now. And why are guards, centers, tight ends, receivers, defensive linemen, linebackers or safeties not considered guys you can plug in for 10 years? It's utterly arbitrary.

A theory: In 1996 the Ravens drafted Jonathan Ogden fourth overall. The next year the Rams drafted Orlando Pace first overall and the Seahawks took Walter Jones sixth. All three had Hall of Fame careers, and as they neared a decade with their respective teams, the “10-year left tackle” became a thing. I first remember hearing about it—a lot—in 2004 with Robert Gallery of Iowa. Of course, the gritty Hawkeye would go on to illustrate that the “10-year left tackle” draft declaration is just empty noise. Drafted second overall by the Raiders, Gallery struggled for three years at left tackle before moving to guard, where he was decent for the next four years. Then, after one uneventful year in Seattle, he was out of the league.

Have other left tackles since Ogden-Pace-Jones come along and had stellar 10-plus year careers with their original team? Sure—but there's been an average of one per year. And included on that list are a few “good but not great” left tackles—Jeff Backus, D'Brickashaw Ferguson—whom we could debate as to whether they justified their first-round status. In between these players, you've had plenty of Greg Robinson-Matt Kalil-Jason Smith types. Left tackles can bust just like any other position.
 

Henry

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Not that I necessarily disagree with you, Ax, but oddly our previous two LTs were both top five picks who lasted nine and ten years with the team, respectively. It's one of the few positions this team seems to draft really well ...
 

Burgundy Burner

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Good point. LT has been a good position for the Skins over the years. Joe Jacoby. Jim Lachey. Chris Samuels. Trent Williams. That is a very good track record. Two of those players selected were in the Dan Snyder era. Andrew Thomas would fit the same mold.

But Chase Young is something else. I just don't see the Skins taking an edge in the first round two years in a row. Time will tell.
 

Ax

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Not that I necessarily disagree with you, Ax, but oddly our previous two LTs were both top five picks who lasted nine and ten years with the team, respectively. It's one of the few positions this team seems to draft really well ...
Wasn't me. It was the article.

We have indeed done well drafting LT's. But that puts us ahead of the norm. According to the article.

My main assertion, which holds true for every draft position, of every round, is that it is a crapshoot.

Edit: I would also add that I believe both Samuels, and Williams, to be on a level below Jacoby and Lachey.
And if only one of them makes it to the hall, it should be Jacoby.

Samuels and Williams, at least for now, are not in consideration.
 
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Ax

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Another thing is, lots can happen between today and draft day, which would dramatically change the team's draft board/FA wants/who all to cut, etc...
It's why I try not to get too involved in "team needs" for the following year, in the middle of an ongoing season.
Especially since the potential for seismic turnover is so high.

Besides, we have BB to do all that. ;)
And no one does it better.
 

Burgundy Burner

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Now we know. BGO is in its final weeks and BBQ will fade into the history books as well.

BBQ had an informal start in 2010 when the owners of BGO had a contest to predict the first Mike Shanahan draft. I correctly predicted that the team would draft Roy Helu and Evan Royster. In that same draft, I correctly predicted several of the positions - but the wrong players. That accuracy got me to thinking - maybe I can make this something of a feature on BGO. BBQ was born a few months later.

I just started to post the BBQ stuff one day and then the owners embraced it formally a year later. There were minor changes each year and it grew to what it is today. None of it would've happened without the great support from BGO staff and all of the members here. Thanks to each of you for embracing BBQ. Thank you so much.

I recently made arrangements to feature my BBQ work at Riggo's Rag starting after the first of the year. So you won't miss a thing if you choose. My templates will be modified to fit their formats and styles, but the work will continue. It won't be known as BBQ, just daily and weekly posts during the in-season and off-season. You will notice some minor differences, but a lot of it will look familiar.

In the meantime, the in-season blog will continue until the season is over. The off-season and in-season blogs at Riggo's Rag will be pretty much one in the same. The big difference is that it will now be in the form of an article, but the formatting will still look similar. You will have the opportunity to post comments on each article if you choose to do so - and I hope you will.

There is still work to do with this in-season blog and I will sprint to the finish. At that time, it is on to Riggo's Rag. I hope you will join me there and comment often - agree or disagree.
 

Bulldog

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This all starts though with who is picking the players.

Belichick wins Super Bowls with a 7th round WR in Julian Edelman, a 2nd round TE in Rob Gronkowski, and over the years backs like Antowain Smith and James White.

How many top 10 picks has New England had over the years to come up with the players to excel?

The answer to getting better is increasing the value add in the War Room on draft day and setting that up by expanding a pathetic scouting department in terms of numbers that is among the smallest in the NFL.

The Redskins and Bruce indicated in the past that they had the assistant coaches evaluating players as well so the number of scouts was adequate for the job.

What a joke. You think Bill Belichick and Andy Reid don't have their assistants participating in evaluations? That doesn't limit their attempts to get the best information in house in observations from scouts when the NFL season is underway and assistants don't have a chance to look at college players until January or February.

New England doesn't participate in the shared scouting services, instead counting on their own people to make evaluations and target players others might miss or undervalue.

Meanwhile, the Redskins are 20 years behind in setting up their scouting and evaluation system and that's one reason they are 1-8.

The other is that that the team habitually refuses to remain patient and build through the draft.

Every few years this team has to throw the Hail Mary in an attempt to short circuit the process and come up with the quick fix to overcome past miscues and failures.

This shows itself in the move for Donovan McNabb, the move to trade a generation of picks for Griffin, and the trade to acquire a 35 year old quarterback, Alex Smith, after Kirk Cousins walks out the door.

Winning teams over time like the Steelers and Packers draft replacements for veterans that leave in free agency, get hurt, or retire.

Occasionally, they dip into the free agent market but never to give up the kind of future considerations in risky deals the Redskins do and to tie up salary cap in aging vets.

Another team like that is the Ravens. They use free agency more than the Steelers or Packers, but at the core the Ravens almost never trade away their #1 pick or trading a pot full of future considerations for players nearing 30.

Free agency is another place this team has gotten taken to the cleaners.

New England spends megabucks to sign Stephon Gilmore at CB but he is one of the best cover corners in the NFL.

The Redskins go out and sign Josh Norman, a zone corner whose success is based at least partly on the dominance of the Carolina front seven from 2013-2015, to a top 5 contract after 2015 and then put him in a scheme where he is expected to play on an island on the outside with 4.6 speed.

It's a joke. And a bad one.

Friends who root for other teams and business associates used to razz me about some of the Redskins moves years ago for Haynesworth, etc. but they don't anymore.

The Redskins have become so non-competitive that a lot of people actually feel sorry for the plight of rooting for a team owned by Dan Snyder and managed by Bruce Allen.
 

Elephant

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The Redskins have become so non-competitive that a lot of people actually feel sorry for the plight of rooting for a team owned by Dan Snyder and managed by Bruce Allen.
And this is the truth of this team.
 

Rymanofthenorth

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if haskins proves to be even decent then we almost have to go LT, otherwise take the edge rusher and build up our defence this offseason, find a better corner, a couple backers and scheme around our great young DL. then next year go all in on OL then the following year, look for a qb. I prefer to build a defence first then Oline then skill spots then qb
 

Bulldog

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Ryman, we simply can't continue to take OLB with our high picks, there are other areas of need. If we can't identify and draft the appropriate candidates as edge rushers than we need to go into free agency and sign one.

In the past 8 years look at what we have done:

2011 - Ryan Kerrigan - #1 choice
2014 - Trent Murphy - #2 choice
2015 - Preston Smith - #2 choice
2017 - Ryan Anderson - #2 choice
2019 - Montez Sweat - #1 choice

That's enough draft picks to build out the core of an entire defense!

Meanwhile, other than Kerrigan we are wondering if the players on this list that are still here are going to improve to justify their draft position, not to mention the ones that we didn't re-sign and allowed to go play for other teams, who seem to get more out of them.
 

Elephant

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Ryman, we simply can't continue to take OLB with our high picks, there are other areas of need. If we can't identify and draft the appropriate candidates as edge rushers than we need to go into free agency and sign one.

In the past 8 years look at what we have done:

2011 - Ryan Kerrigan - #1 choice
2014 - Trent Murphy - #2 choice
2015 - Preston Smith - #2 choice
2017 - Ryan Anderson - #2 choice
2019 - Montez Sweat - #1 choice

That's enough draft picks to build out the core of an entire defense!

Meanwhile, other than Kerrigan we are wondering if the players on this list that are still here are going to improve to justify their draft position, not to mention the ones that we didn't re-sign and allowed to go play for other teams, who seem to get more out of them.
I agree, we just invested a 1st rounder on an average OLB/DE in Sweat, another 1st round investment might be stretching it.

However, have you seen Young play? He is a man among boys out there...and this is coming from someone who thinks we should take OT Andrew Thomas. But, I wouldn't be upset at all if we drafted him...he may be the best player in the upcoming draft.

If the team is smart they move on from Kerrigan and get what they can in a trade. Sweat would have to play the other side. We could not get their potential out of Smith and Murphy here, and Ryan Anderson is a bust, unless like you have stated we can play him at weak side OLB in the 4-3.

This is a complete rebuild, that is a position of need. Sweat has not really shown he can play at the level we need from that position.
 

fansince62

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Ah yes, the draft crap shoot.

SI had an article in April about draft myths.
https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/04/24/2019-draft-analysis-myths-ten-year-left-tackle-belichick-genius

9. The 10-Year Left Tackle
“You can plug this guy in at left tackle and not worry about that spot for the next 10 years,” dozens of draft analysts say about almost any left tackle taken in the first round. But why left tackle? And why 10 years? About 90 percent of the people making decisions on draft night will be making decisions for another team—or not at all—10 years from now. And why are guards, centers, tight ends, receivers, defensive linemen, linebackers or safeties not considered guys you can plug in for 10 years? It's utterly arbitrary.

A theory: In 1996 the Ravens drafted Jonathan Ogden fourth overall. The next year the Rams drafted Orlando Pace first overall and the Seahawks took Walter Jones sixth. All three had Hall of Fame careers, and as they neared a decade with their respective teams, the “10-year left tackle” became a thing. I first remember hearing about it—a lot—in 2004 with Robert Gallery of Iowa. Of course, the gritty Hawkeye would go on to illustrate that the “10-year left tackle” draft declaration is just empty noise. Drafted second overall by the Raiders, Gallery struggled for three years at left tackle before moving to guard, where he was decent for the next four years. Then, after one uneventful year in Seattle, he was out of the league.

Have other left tackles since Ogden-Pace-Jones come along and had stellar 10-plus year careers with their original team? Sure—but there's been an average of one per year. And included on that list are a few “good but not great” left tackles—Jeff Backus, D'Brickashaw Ferguson—whom we could debate as to whether they justified their first-round status. In between these players, you've had plenty of Greg Robinson-Matt Kalil-Jason Smith types. Left tackles can bust just like any other position.
All due respect AX: as far as "analysis" goes the article is about 3rd grade level - if that. There's no analysis! There's a world of difference between crapshoot (i.e., totally random) and probability theory (i.e., statistical prediction, confidence intervals, etc., etc.). That article was written by someone who apparently doesn't have a clue about the difference - you know, a fknuckle.
 

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