Burner's Burning Questions: Free Agency, The Mock Drafts, 2016 (Continual Updates)

So, looking at the macro view, unless Cousins becomes the next Tom Brady, Matt Jones needs to become the next Marshawn Lynch.

Cousins doesn't need to become the next Tom Brady or Peyton Manning to win a SB. He looked much better than Peyton last year, and Denver won the SB.

Denver certainly didn't win the SB because of a great QB or O-line. They had neither last season.

What they did have was a poor QB, a successful RBBC approach, and an incredible defense.
 
Save your breath, El. You'd have a better chance explaining the concept of money to Raymond Babbit.
 
Yeah El. Clearly you're just an obsessed RG3 apologist who can't see the forest for the trees.
 
McD5, your argument about our OL has been refuted repeatedly. You keep coming back stating, " they aren't as bad as the rest." Well, that doesn't pass the any legitimate measurement...the tallest midget in the room is still short.


There is a reason players along our OL were jettisoned...the FO knew they were not good. Our OL sucked and has been upgraded. If what you say is true, there would not have been an 80% turnover in less than 3 years.

Chester was getting old and needed to be moved.

But per PFF, our O-line was ranked the 5th best in 2013, and the 12th best in 2014. Far from terrible.

Maybe you disagree with their rankings big time, and we were really the 10th best in 2013, and 24th in 2014. Still very different than the opinions many of our fans shared.

I'd read Skins fans all over the internet screaming about how bad our O-line was. And then expert after expert would say the exact opposite.

Some of it, (not you), I understand was fans in disbelief that RG3 was a big part of the problem.
 
Anyway, I'll just politely agree to disagree on the O-line.

As far as Matt Jones goes, I see the same disconnect happening again. Albeit to a much lesser extent. Some of that is probably due to RG3 being a more popular and emotionally invested player to our fans.

From Hogs Haven:

Alf Morris had ~390 offensive snaps last year, Matt Jones 330. Still managed 794 total yards & 4 TDs. Jones should get bulk of Morris' snaps.

I think it's safe to say he's good for 1,200 APY next year if he can hold the rock.
 
Henry, I used to follow Football Outsiders for a period of time. Until I noticed their self-admitted flaws.

The methodology they use is why you'll see their grades vary so wildly from the consensus. An example being how poorly they have ranked Dallas over the last two seasons--a line that most agree is the best in the NFL.

From their site:

Among other reasons, they don't include quarterbacks or fumbles, long runs are truncated, and a different set of adjustments is used, attempting to isolate line play rather than total team offense.

However, it is important to understand that these ratings only somewhat separate the offensive line from the running backs. A team with a very good running back will appear higher no matter how bad their line, and a team with a great line with appear lower if the running back is terrible.

FO looks more at the total offense. They look at the result of a play, and grade accordingly without separation or respect given to the talent level of a particular group.

An O-line will look much worse on their rankings if Tony Romo isn't playing. They will also grade an O-line much higher if they have a great RB playing.

Interesting. The Dallas Cowboys. Historically the most over-rated team in the NFL. THAT'S your example?

Football Outsiders had Dallas as the #1 OL in the run game in 2014 and the #6 OL in the run game in 2015. Pass blocking they had the Dallas OL rated #16 and #19, respectively. Switching out Murray and Romo for scrubs didn't radically change their ratings from year to year. And their ratings for Dallas' OL were pretty good both years. Best in the league in some cases. I'd say Football Outsiders has a pretty good bead on things.

Maybe you don't. That's fine. I think other sites and opinions make nice supplements to an argument, but they don't in and of themselves make a decent argument. For example, when you say "this pundit and that pundit think X, so X must be true" I think that's pretty weak. You may not think FO's methodology is perfect, but at least they HAVE a methodology beyond "here's my impression of one of the 32 teams I watch."

Our offensive line has gotten better than total-crappy ratings in the past because Trent Williams is a great player and Lichtensteiger is solid and versatile. Our line hasn't been complete and utter drek across the board. That is true. However, there have been some spots that have been in desperate need of replacing. It wasn't just Scherff. Moses taking over the RT spot was huge.

But we still can't run the ball. That's a problem. And it's either Jones, Gruden, or the line. I mean, it has to be SOMETHING, right? You just made another post about how Jones isn't a problem. And this post is about how the line isn't the problem. And I KNOW you don't think Gruden is a problem. :)

It's gotta be something.
 
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Cousins doesn't need to become the next Tom Brady or Peyton Manning to win a SB. He looked much better than Peyton last year, and Denver won the SB.

Denver certainly didn't win the SB because of a great QB or O-line. They had neither last season.

What they did have was a poor QB, a successful RBBC approach, and an incredible defense.

Well ok. That's one out of the past eight teams to appear in the Superbowl to follow that model. We can certainly hope that, like the 2011 Giants and this year's Broncos, things fall exactly right, we get hot at just the right time, someone misses an extra point or something and we win a Super Bowl without an elite rushing or passing game. In this day and age of shitty parity outliers do exist and we can pray to be the next one. That's one way to go.

Or we can try and be like every other team that's been in the Super Bowl over the past six or seven years, which requires us to have top passing and/or rushing talent. Cousins may continue to develop and become awesome and maybe we can then get away with a committee of rushers. Or he could be just a solid-if-he-has-a-good-line type of QB, in which case we'll need a Ray Rice, or a Marshawn Lynch, or a Frank Gore.

And given that nothing is set in stone ... not having an awesome defense or an elite passer or an awesome OL or any of that ... I'd feel better if we had a more promising set of RBs on the roster. A guy with a lackluster rookie effort, a guy with straight ahead speed who can't stay healthy, 7th round pick and ... that's it? Not sure I'm ready to make the leap to 'more than adequate.'

Unless our big offseason plan is to start praying.
 
Henry, what's the one biggest factor that has allowed teams with weaknesses to make it to the SB over the last 15 years?

Defense, right?

It's what allowed the Giants to stop Brady. It's what allowed guys like Brad Johnson to win it all. It's what kept Baltimore so strong for many years. It's what allows teams with awful O-lines like Seattle and the Patriots to win year in and year out.

It would be great to have all of our units dominate.

But in the pecking order, it's really the defense that matters.

The good news is that it's what McLovin has done throughout his career, and we have guys like Norman, Cravens, Galette and Fuller to look forward to.

Get Kerrigan back to 100%, and give us one more draft. We may have something very special 12 months from now.
 
Looking at the list of the teams who played in the Super Bowl over the last 15 years, I would say the biggest single factor one can point to is QB. If you have had Brees, Brady, Manning, Rothlisberger, Eli, etc, you have played in at least one SB and probably more than one.

There are certainly exceptions to that generality (Brad Johnson, Sexy Rexy, etc), but by and large the teams that made had GREAT quarterback play.

So from there it follows that it's a good idea to protect the QB. If we can all agree that the QB is the most position in ALL of sports, wouldn't it make sense to protect one if you get a franchise QB (cough, Colts, cough)? Andrew Luck is kind of the perfect case study for this theory, isn't he? He made do with a below-average line for years, and because of his youth and toughness, he made it work. Until he didn't, last year. Then he got injured and they had to rely on 308 year old Matt Hasselbeck (all ages approximate).

If you have a guy back there, I guess OLine doesn't matter as much? But if you have THE guy back there, protect him for goodness' sake so you can keep him upright and mobile and good.
 
Goal, that's almost the exact opposite of what Belichick believes.

They have a great QB, and have one of the worst O-lines every year. Do we know more than Belichick?

Seattle and Denver don't believe that either. Nor does Green Bay. And they certainly have a great QB.

So who is right? Those that scream O-line? Or Belichick, Seattle, Denver and Green Bay?

And to put things into perspective, Cousins was sacked 27 times last year. Aaron Rodgers was sacked 46 times.

Some of us have no idea how good our O-line already is, and how lucky we are.
 
No worries fellas. We will have a very very good running game this year. The reason is obvious. When you have a formidable passing attack, the biggest beneficiary is the running game. So get ready, its coming. (a side benefit will also be fewer QB sacks).
 
Henry, what's the one biggest factor that has allowed teams with weaknesses to make it to the SB over the last 15 years?

Defense, right?

It's what allowed the Giants to stop Brady. It's what allowed guys like Brad Johnson to win it all. It's what kept Baltimore so strong for many years. It's what allows teams with awful O-lines like Seattle and the Patriots to win year in and year out.

It would be great to have all of our units dominate.

But in the pecking order, it's really the defense that matters.

The good news is that it's what McLovin has done throughout his career, and we have guys like Norman, Cravens, Galette and Fuller to look forward to.

Get Kerrigan back to 100%, and give us one more draft. We may have something very special 12 months from now.

Sure. Defense wins championships. Lets build an awesome defense.

That's not what we're talking about here. We're talking about whether or not our OL or runningbacks are any good.

Again, with the exception of Denver, all those other teams were at least good at SOMETHING on offense. Without an elite QB, that means you need either a good OL or a good RB or both. Until Cousins becomes an elite QB or we build a top five defense, we should probably care about those other things. They might actually matter.
 
Well it looks like we're trying to build a top 5 defense for starters.

As far as the O-line goes, FO ranks us as the 15th best in the league. PFF has us at 11. Either way.....or average the two together....we are above average.

Our defense was far from average. And that seems to be where we focused a lot of our energy.

The only way our O-line or RB situation could have been improved was to either spend our higher draft picks there......or get more draft picks. I advocated trading away both RG3 and Alfred before last season began for specifically that reason. That this day would come.

We didn't, and here we are.

Now we just have to keep our eyes open for cuts, develop what we have and wait another season.
 
Or, maybe actually commit to running the ball, with more than just a lot of hot air.
 
Goal, that's almost the exact opposite of what Belichick believes.

They have a great QB, and have one of the worst O-lines every year. Do we know more than Belichick?

Seattle and Denver don't believe that either. Nor does Green Bay. And they certainly have a great QB.

So who is right? Those that scream O-line? Or Belichick, Seattle, Denver and Green Bay?

And to put things into perspective, Cousins was sacked 27 times last year. Aaron Rodgers was sacked 46 times.

Some of us have no idea how good our O-line already is, and how lucky we are.

Uh, no. My boss is a Pats fanatic. Like we are for the Skins, but for NE. I asked him about your theory and he laughed. He says that Belichick has not been great at drafting OLine.

So I went back and looked. Here. Over the past 15 years, he has drafted multiple OLinemen 10 times. Only in three years did he fail to draft an OLinemen at all. NE fans will tell you Belichick values the OLine a great deal - in fact he spent first or second round picks on the OLine 4 times in that time period.

Just for poops and ha-has, the Skins over the same time period drafted multiple linemen 5 times. 6 times we didn't draft an OLineman at all. We have two times that we drafted an OLinement in the first or second round.

(OK, that exercise totally sucked. I'm ready to start drinking. Heavily.)

Across all metrics I listed above, Belichick literally values OLinemen twice as much as we do. Twice as much.

So for you to claim Belichick doesn't care about the OLine so neither should we... well... no. Just no.
 
No worries fellas. We will have a very very good running game this year. The reason is obvious. When you have a formidable passing attack, the biggest beneficiary is the running game. So get ready, its coming. (a side benefit will also be fewer QB sacks).

We had a formidable passing attack for the last 9 games of the season last year and our running game got worse.

I hope you're right, but I haven't seen or heard anything to demonstrate the magical turnaround you are espousing will happen.
 
Goal, tell your boss that he's a bandwagon fan:)

Then ask him how many first rounders NE has on offense, and how many they have on defense. I'll give you a hint, they draft defense at the top nearly every year.

NE's first round picks, over the last ten years:

2006: RB
2007: S
2008: LB
2009: No pick
2010: CB
2011: OT
2012: 2 first round picks. DE and LB
2013: No first round pick
2014: DT
2015: DT

They've taken exactly 1 shot on any O-lineman in the first round in the last 10 years.

Out of 9 total first round picks, they've drafted defense 7 out of 9 times.

Defense.

Patriots fans, lol.
 
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YOU can tell him. I like my job.

You're kind of making my point for me. Brady covers a multitude of sins. If the Pats had Jason Campbell, Patrick Ramsey, Griffin and other first and second round fails, they wouldn't have had the ability to draft those defensive players. If you count the Griffin draft bonanza, do you have any idea how many first and second round draft picks we have used on that one position since Brady supplanted Bledsoe? 6. That's a lot of picks that could have been used to take a lot of other postions.

My point still stands, and the fact that you changed the terms from 15 years to 10 didn't elude me. Belichick drafts OLinemen. A lot. IMO, he clearly values the position and is trying to protect Brady.

Just for fun, let's look at the Seahags, another team on your list. 9 years out of 15 they dedicated at LEAST two picks to the OLine. 7 times they drafted an OLineman in the first or second round. Twice in 15 years they didn't draft an Olineman at all.

In looking at this, one of the clear reasons we have sucked for so long is that we have continued to ignore our OLine, which is what many on this site have been saying for years, going back to the ES years. Until we consistently devote resources, almost every year to our OLine, we will be consistently inconsistent. THAT'S what the good teams do, and it is what we should be doing. Not pretending it is just fine and concentrating solely on any area of the field.
 
Yeeeeah ... about New England. If you look at 2006-2010, every single starter on their line was a home-grown player. Every single one. For five years. For the first four of those years, they started the same five guys at the same five spots every year. There's a reason why they didn't draft OL high during that stretch. They were set. In fact, the Pats do an EXCELLENT job of finding linemen and keeping them on the team and having them play together and get comfortable as a unit for 5, 6, 7 years at a time.

If one favors 'macro' examples :) one might look at New England in 2015 and see a hot mess on the OL. That's due to a bad combination of turnover and injuries. Not because the team historically ignores the offensive line. It happens to every team now and then. Fortunately for the 2015 Patriots, they had Tom Brady.
 

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