Burner's Burning Questions: Free Agency, The Mock Drafts, 2016 (Continual Updates)

[Henry]

How has Jones shown he's more talented that, say, Roy Helu? Jones runs high and gets knocked down too easily for his size. He's got deceptive speed which is why I think he's a better receiver out of the backfield. But for his size he's not durable at all.

Helu had 100-yard games in his first three starts as a rookie, but he couldn't stay healthy either. This is not directed at you, El, but I am surprised at how readily people dismiss the importance of something as basic and fundamental as durability. For a running back that's at least half the battle.

Looking pretty on the field is one thing. Actually BEING on the field ... I'll take that every day and twice on Sunday.

 

[Elephant]

How has Jones shown he's more talented that, say, Roy Helu? Jones runs high and gets knocked down too easily for his size. He's got deceptive speed which is why I think he's a better receiver out of the backfield. But for his size he's not durable at all.

Helu had 100-yard games in his first three starts as a rookie, but he couldn't stay healthy either. This is not directed at you, El, but I am surprised at how readily people dismiss the importance of something as basic and fundamental as durability. For a running back that's at least half the battle.

Looking pretty on the field is one thing. Actually BEING on the field ... I'll take that every day and twice on Sunday.

I maintain there is something more to his lack of playing time down the stretch than his "physical durability". We'll see what happens going into next season, but the book on Jones is not complete...yet. But you're right, being on the field trumps the production of a player missing in action, which Jones was down the stretch.

As for Helu, I think his performance in Oakland this year shows why we were so willing to let him go. I liked Helu, but he is nowhere near the talent level as Jones...the kid is big, strong, has vision and he's fast. He has some issues he needs to over come, but if he does, he can be more than solid. Look, you have no idea how difficult it is for a Seminole to defend a Gator, but I think the story of Matt Jones has yet to be written.

 

[Goaldeje]

I gotta be honest, the mere fact that Forte's name is being bandied about suggests some may not have truly learned the woes of this team over the course of the Snyder reign...aging vets and all.

The draft is where you find your RB. We found one in the 6th round 4 years ago, we can find one with a much better group of talent evaluators on staff. And as much as Goal seems to have written the book on Jones, the kid is more talented than many RB's we've seen in DC in a long time. He has his fumbling issues, but if you guys remember Morris' first season, he had a few fumbles that made many wonder. He had 4 fumbles his rookie year and 5 his 2nd year. Jones had 5 his rookie year...not much difference. The fumble issue can be fixed. What concerns me more is what the real issue was going down the stretch that kept Jones off the field. Was it injury? Word around DC was there was more to it...maturity issues. I don't know, but that concerns me more than a few fumbles...that aspect of a RB's game can be fixed.

I have written the book on Matt Jones from the 2015 season. I feel that's fair at this point. McD has said repeatedly we should have traded Morris for a 4th, and I have been trying to explain why I think that would have been disastrous, though Henry did a much better job above explaining it. Jones has a fumbling problem, was inconsistent and has durability concerns going forward.

None of that is permanent, he could, and hopefully will turn all of that around in 2016. But relying on THAT as a primary RB would have been a disaster this last season.

That's my only point.

 

[Burgundy Burner]

Free Agency, The Mock Drafts, 2016 (Continual Updates)​

The offseason is rolling along now as teams are fully immersed with retooling their rosters by releasing players, restructuring contracts, offering new deals, looking at free agency, and planning for the draft. BBQ takes the latest look at free agency and there are more scenarios to consider. We take the latest chatter from Redskins Park and media pundits as BBQ tries to formulate what could happen in the coming weeks. Who will the Redskins target, re-sign, release, and tender? We try to answer those questions and more. Feel free to offer your ideas on free agency and the draft.

Free Agents Obtained:
Ziggy Hood, DE, Chicago

Unrestricted Free Agents:
Kirk Cousins, QB (Franchised or New Contract)
Colt McCoy, QB (Unknown)
Alfred Morris, RB (Very Likely Walks)
Pierre Thomas, RB (Likely Walks)
Darrel Young, FB (Likely Re-signs)
Logan Paulsen, TE (Very Likely Walks)
Alex Smith, TE (Very Likely Walks)
Josh LeRibeus, C (Very Likely Walks)
Kedric Golston, DE (Unknown)
Frank Kearse, DE (Likely Walks)
Terrance Knighton, DT (Likely Walks)
Keenan Robinson, LB (Likely Walks)
Junior Galette, LB (Definitely Re-signs)
Mason Foster, LB (Likely Re-signs)
Desmond Bishop, LB (Very Likely Walks)
Cary Williams, CB (Very Likely Walks)
Will Blackmon, CB (Unknown)

Restricted Free Agents:
Tom Compton, OT (Likely Tendered and Re-signs)
Duke Ihenacho, SS (Unknown)

Exclusive Rights Free Agents:
Will Compton, LB (Very Likely Re-signs)
Chris Thompson, RB (Very Likely Re-signs)
Tress Way, P (Very Likely Re-signs)

Possible Cuts, Cap Savings, Candidates For Restructure:
Robert Griffin, QB - $16.5M Fully Saved (Will Be Released)
Pierre Garcon, WR – (Likely Stays - $8M Saved if Cut)
DeSean Jackson, WR – (Likely Stays - $6.75M Saved if Cut)
Dashon Goldson, S – (Likely Restructures - $8M Saved if Cut)
Andre Roberts, WR – (Very Likely Cut - $3M Saved if Cut)
DeAngelo Hall, S – (Restructure? Likely Stays - $3.4M Saved if Cut)
Jason Hatcher, DE – (Retires or Likely Cut - $4.2M Saved if Cut)
Perry Riley, LB – (Restructure? Candidate For Release? - $4M Saved if Cut)
Shawn Lauvao, OG – (Unknown - $3M Saved if Cut)
Kory Lichtensteiger, C – (Unknown - $2.95M Saved if Cut)
Jeron Johnson, S – (Leans Toward Staying - $1.07M Saved if Cut)
Nick Sundberg, LS – (Unknown - $1M Saved if Cut)
Adam Hayward, LB – (Unknown - $945K if Cut)
Ryan Grant, WR – (Unknown - $550K Saved if Cut)
Jackson Jeffcoat, LB – (Likely Cut - $600K Saved if Cut)
Jerell Powe, DT – ( Very Likely Cut - $600K Saved if Cut)
One Interesting Note:
Chris Culliver, CB – (Unknown) The situation is explained here: Uncertainty remains for Chris Culliver, who vows to be ready for start of season - Washington Times

Here are some of the free agents that could be targeted. Obviously, the Redskins can’t sign each player, but having what looks to be substantial cap room will allow for some flexibility. Who do you like in this list and who would you avoid?

Possible Free Agent Targets:
Quarterbacks:
Chase Daniel, Kansas City

Running Backs:
Lamar Miller, Miami

Wide Receivers:
Marvin Jones, Cincinnati

Tight Ends:

Offensive Tackles:

Guards:

Centers:
Stefen Wisniewski, Jacksonville

Defensive Tackles:
Ian Williams, San Francisco

Defensive End:
Jaye Howard, Kansas City

Linebackers:

Cornerbacks:
Brandon Boykin, Pittsburgh

Safeties:
George Iloka, Cincinnati
Rodney McLeod, Los Angeles
Isa Abdul-Quddus, Detroit

Teams With Serious Cap Issues:
Miami
New Orleans
Buffalo
New York Jets
Pittsburgh
New England
Baltimore
Detroit

Teams With Enormous Cap Room:
Jacksonville
Oakland
San Francisco
Chicago
Tampa Bay

Teams with serious cap issues could help the Redskins if they have their eyes on a certain player or players. However, teams with plenty of cap room could snipe a Redskins player.

Several changes have been made for this week and are reflected in the listings.

In talking with several Redskins beat reporters recently, BBQ has learned the following: After more discussions, Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson are very likely staying, but recognize that they are in the last year of their contracts. Look for wide receiver and running back to be a priority in the draft and/or free agency.

The ship has sailed on Josh LeRibeus. There is a 99.99% chance that he will not return. Shawn Lauvao may never return to form with his various leg injuries, but there is optimism at Redskins Park. The Chris Culliver situation is interesting and BBQ thinks there will be a restructure in his immediate future or be released. We have made changes to the statuses of Jason Hatcher, Terrance Knighton (changed to likely walks), Perry Riley, Jeron Johnson, and Dashon Goldson. Other players above have their situations mentioned, but no other insight is known at this time

We have decided to include very good football players on the free agent list from other teams only. It is almost impossible to know who of the “lesser” players could be targeted, so no attempts will be made unless media chatter dictates otherwise. We have updated FA targets in the running back category and defensive ends. Obviously the Redskins can’t sign each player, but we think that one or two very good free agents could be on the table.

We’ll update the free agency situations frequently and as media chatter warrants. We will have one more mock draft before free agency begins and will the mocks will return in mid March. Give us your thoughts on free agency and what you think will happen.

Hail To The Redskins!

 

[Burgundy Burner]

Some Tuesday morning tidbits:

The Terrance Knighton situation has deteriorated in recent days. Will he walk? Stay at a reduced salary? It's hard to say and that bumps him down to "likely walks".

The thought amongst some at Redskins Park and a few media pundits is that the Redskins will go WR in the first or second round. Look for Lequon Treadwell to be the first target and then Will Fuller or Tyler Boyd if they can't get the Ole Miss receiver.

The Kirk Cousins situation is at an early impasse. The franchise tag is now a real possibility. Would one of the teams who pick in the top ten offer him a contract (it would require two first round picks) or offer a very attractive package to the Redskins? Stay tuned.

FYI, franchise tags can start to be applied as of today.

As mentioned earlier, the chances of Alfred Morris returning are near zero. We only have one target at RB in the latest FA targets list. It's more likely that the Redskins select a RB in the middle rounds of the draft and another in the seventh round/undrafted FAs list.

One other note about Morris. The coaching staff started to notice that the wear and tear on Alfred's body was becoming more noticeable. They actually had high hopes for him this season, but missing holes and gaps was a big concern. It was also obvious to the staff that he really had lost a bit from his first couple of seasons. Don't shoot the messenger, but this has been discussed in recent weeks by Redskins media. Just saying.

The salary cap likely climbs to the $156M to $157M range this coming season. This would be an increase of about thirteen to fourteen million.

Kory Lichtensteiger probably sticks around for one more season, but as a backup.

Jeron Johnson likely saved his job by having a decent second half of the season. The story is the same for Perry Riley.

It sounds like Dashon Goldson is open to changing his contract and lowering his cap number. Look for a two year deal paying $3M a year with a $1M signing bonus.

It is now unlikely that Jason Hatcher returns - either by retirement or getting cut.

 

[Burgundy Burner]

My own personal thoughts - feel free to disagree or rip them apart. It's just opinions and nothing more.

If the Redskins were to sign a free agent like Marvin Jones, then Pierre Garcon will be released.

Lamar Miller is a definite target. He was/is not a good fit in Miami's offense, but could do very well in what will be a power scheme for the Redskins.

Lequon Treadwell is a player they hope will be there at pick 21. If not, they would likely go with Tyler Boyd in the second round with Will Fuller being a second choice.

If one of the top three QBs is there at 21, look for the Broncos to offer to move up and grab him. Trading down is not a bad thing for the Redskins.

It's possible that DeSean Jackson gets extended and has offseason workout clauses in any new contract.

I'm thinking that getting a center in FA is less likely. I can't rule it out, but my thinking is that it will be addressed in the draft.

I don't think Cousin Kirk will want the franchise tag applied and will agree to a five or six year deal worth about $19M a year with $51M guaranteed.

Ziggy Hood is an unknown, but it feels like a replacement for Kedric Golston.

If Treadwell is not there at 21 and no trades are imminent, look for Vernon Butler to be the surprise pick here.

Dashon Goldson likes it in DC and he will likely agree to a new deal that was mentioned in the previous thread. He is a good presence in the locker room.

I'm thinking that Scot McCloughan will be a bit more active in FA than the Redskins are admitting. I could be totally wrong as this is just a gut feeling.

Finally...

Hindsight is always 20/8 (best eyesight humanly possible) and we can easily look back and say what should've, could've, might've been done. As soon as Cousin Kirk was named the starter, I wanted the Redskins to trade Robert right away. The most we could expect was a sixth or seventh rounder, but it was better than nothing. No one is going to make an offer now.

I'm thinking that Robert ends up in one of the following places: Houston. Kansas City. Arizona. Denver. St. Louis.

As for Alfred, I wanted him to do well with these new changes. After a while, it was obvious that he would be gone following this season. There is really no way to know what he could've brought in a trade last August. However, let's be honest - that was not going to happen under any circumstances. Again, 20-8. With what we know today - sure, it would've been nice to get something in a trade, but the most we would've gotten last August is a sixth or seventh. But you don't make that trade due to lack of depth at RB along with a rookie and an injury prone (Thompson) back who had proven nothing at that juncture.

One piece of eye candy...
https://twitter.com/MarkBullockNFL/status/699325764987195392

Enough from me and my silly thoughts. Mock draft coming late next week. FA updates coming more often and as it warrants.

See you as we go along.

 

[Goaldeje]

Of course he had to show a clip of Miller destroying the Giants. Now I want him.

 

[McD5]

I'm not sure that we'll go in his direction. We may just grab a RB in the draft. We may not even have a chance at him. Miami is dumping contracts to try and keep him, and Dallas fans have already started a LamartoDallas website. They're salivating.

But if we do get him, he's the complete back. Above average blocker, great runner and great WR too. He'd be the most exciting RB we've had since Portis' first season. Maybe the most solid back since before Portis was in DC.

 

[McD5]

The play at the 1:40 mark reminds me of someone. Actually, all of the plays from 1:40 on are nice.

 

[Henry]

I'm not sure that we'll go in his direction. We may just grab a RB in the draft. We may not even have a chance at him. Miami is dumping contracts to try and keep him, and Dallas fans have already started a LamartoDallas website. They're salivating.

But if we do get him, he's the complete back. Above average blocker, great runner and great WR too. He'd be the most exciting RB we've had since Portis' first season. Maybe the most solid back since before Portis was in DC.

Since when do Dallas fans know anything about football?

If there's any sort of bidding war I'd let him go. You don't want to pay top-dollar for half a running back.

Miller might be a fine part-time back, but he'd have to take about 50% more snaps to be as solid as Portis. He's not even close to Portis.

 

[Burgundy Burner]

Some Wednesday updates.

It is becoming less likely that the Redskins will sign a free agent running back, but we are still leaving Lamar Miller as a possibility and adding Chris Ivory. Still thinking that one or two will be selected in the draft or signed as an UDFA.

It is unknown if the Redskins want too add a different veteran quarterback to back up Cousin Kirk. While the Colt McCoy situation is in limbo, look for a QB to be taken in the sixth or seventh round anyway.

A center will not be added in FA. One could be added in the draft.

The communication between the Redskins and Cousin Kirk continues as McD5 reported yesterday. I sent him a private email yesterday afternoon (I was at PT) to tell BGO that communciation on both sides continues. WaPo, PFT, and a few Redskins beat reporters confirmed it late yesterday and last night.

What wasn't reported is that the Redskins now have the negotiations in the hands of their capologist, Eric Schaffer. It will take time, but expect a deal to get done.

Scot McCloughan and Mike McCartney (Kirk's agent) have a long, trusting friendship. The lines of communication are fine.

However, BBQ now believes that the tag could happen - for how long is an unknown. The two sides will come togther at some point. July 15 is the deadline and it could push that window. Maybe it won't. You never know. Thinking that the numbers will be for five or six years, around $96 to $102M, and about $55M guaranteed.

Could the Redskins take two WRs in the draft as reported by a couple of Redskins pundits? Uh, no. Look for one early in this draft and another one in 2017.

Many Redskins players love the new culture at Redskins Park and like what Scot McCloughan is building. Many of them have expressed huge support for Kirk over the last couple of days.

And...something for discussion.

What happens if we do place a tag and one of the quarterback needy teams who pick somewhere in the top ten makes an offer that Kirk signs? Do we match? Do we take those two first round picks?

Redskins Add Kevin Carberry, Shane Waldron To Coaching Staff

 

[McD5]

Since when do Dallas fans know anything about football?

If there's any sort of bidding war I'd let him go. You don't want to pay top-dollar for half a running back.

Miller might be a fine part-time back, but he'd have to take about 50% more snaps to be as solid as Portis. He's not even close to Portis.

I don't think we'll get him. We're more likely to go through the draft, too many other teams want him, and I'm not even sure how he'd fit in DC with Matt Jones.

That being said, he's either the complete back that every GM would kill for, or Alfred is only 25% of a RB. Either way, he'd be a big upgrade.

Aside from not fitting our scheme, I can't think of a single thing Alfred does better than Miller.

Miller is much faster. Scores TDs at a better rate. Better blocker. Much better receiver. Accelerates quicker. Doesn't need 10 carries to warm up. And makes more defenders miss. And younger with more tread on the tires.

We should be so lucky.

He'll be asking for $5 million a year though, and some team like Dallas will give it to him. If we didn't already have Jones, I could see Scot paying him $4 million a year quickly. But I don't see how the two backs would work together.

 

[TomE]

Tough call on the match or draft pick thing for Kirk.

Unless there is a viable option at QB via the Scot prowess, don't we then become one of those quarterback needy teams if we don't match?



Of course.......... we do still have a healthy Griff under wraps for now

 

[McD5]

BB, those assistants look good.

It appears that Carberry has decided to follow Callahan from Dallas. Two birds with one stone--build up our staff, and hurt theirs at the same time.

The other addition also has some O-line experience.

 

[Henry]

That being said, he's either the complete back that every GM would kill for, or Alfred is only 25% of a RB. Either way, he'd be a big upgrade.

He's an upgrade in the sense that our coach doesn't want Alfred. Alfred is gone so my brother-in-law would be an upgrade. That's neither here nor there.

Aside from not fitting our scheme, I can't think of a single thing Alfred does better than Miller.

Miller is much faster. Scores TDs at a better rate. Better blocker. Much better receiver. Accelerates quicker. Doesn't need 10 carries to warm up. And makes more defenders miss. And younger with more tread on the tires.

We should be so lucky.

Alfred has proven on multiple occasions, in both college and the pros, that he can carry the ball 250-300 times a season and produce. Miller has never done that.

Not in college. Not in the pros. Never. Miami last year was dead last in rushing attempts. Clearly Miller is not and has not been the focus of that offense. He's a supplemental player.

If the Redskins seem hell-bent on a rushing scheme consisting of randomly handing the ball off to whomever happens to strike Gruden's fancy at any given moment, Miller would indeed be a better fit. Yay. However, he's not a guy I'd count on to be the focal point of a running game. Nobody's ever seen him do that, so if you expect that of him it's a roll of the dice.

So if we want a part-time player, which he's proven to be, I wouldn't overpay for that.

Or, if we want a real complete, solid running back that can be the focal point of the running game and might actually force opponents to key on the run once in awhile, I wouldn't overpay for a guy who's never done that before.

Either way, let someone else pay through the nose for him.

 

[McD5]

He's an upgrade in the sense that our coach doesn't want Alfred. Alfred is gone so my brother-in-law would be an upgrade. That's neither here nor there.



Alfred has proven on multiple occasions, in both college and the pros, that he can carry the ball 250-300 times a season and produce. Miller has never done that.

Not in college. Not in the pros. Never. Miami last year was dead last in rushing attempts. Clearly Miller is not and has not been the focus of that offense. He's a supplemental player.

If the Redskins seem hell-bent on a rushing scheme consisting of randomly handing the ball off to whomever happens to strike Gruden's fancy at any given moment, Miller would indeed be a better fit. Yay. However, he's not a guy I'd count on to be the focal point of a running game. Nobody's ever seen him do that, so if you expect that of him it's a roll of the dice.

So if we want a part-time player, which he's proven to be, I wouldn't overpay for that.

Or, if we want a real complete, solid running back that can be the focal point of the running game and might actually force opponents to key on the run once in awhile, I wouldn't overpay for a guy who's never done that before.

Either way, let someone else pay through the nose for him.

I'm not great at quoting individual parts of text, so I'll just throw a few ideas by number. I don't think your portrayal is accurate. I think it's normal for us to overvalue our own players and to discount others.

1. I don't believe Gruden or Scot dislike Alfred anymore than some thought they didn't like Robert. Both situations are similar. Robert ran a gimmick offense, and Alfred was very successful with a ZB scheme that very few teams around the league use.

2. We could go back to a ZB scheme that would certainly help Alfred, but then we'd need to go back to the smaller linemen and have our QB get sacked more. Scot's never favored that approach in his past, and is on record saying he doesn't want that. Very few teams do. Gruden has also always favored the "big guy" approach. It's not that they don't want Alfred, it's that the great majority of the league doesn't want Alfred. Only 3 teams out of 32 use ZB as their primary scheme. 10%. He's going to have a very tough time starting anywhere next season.

3. Suggesting that Miller can't carry the load isn't accurate. He's rushed for more than 1,000 yards in a season both in college and in the pros. In 2014 with the Dolphins, Miller rushed for more yardage than Morris.....and on exactly 50 fewer carries. That's not even to mention all of the yardage he earns on receptions.

4. Last year was no different. Miller again had more yardage than Morris, and on fewer carries. And again, a lot more yardage if you include receptions. There's a pretty clear pattern.

5. Miami has fired two coaches in the last 12 months, specifically for not giving the ball to Miller even more. They went crazy on the first coach and booted him, then elevated their TE coach to become the HC. His big mantra was to establish the running game. He didn't, and he was also fired. Miller still had more yardage both on the ground and in the air than Morris.

6. In the end, the market will determine which RB is more valuable in the NFL. It appears that both may hit FA this season. We'll just have to compare the contracts they get offered to see what the professional GMs think. I expect Miller to get $4.5 million a year. And Morris to get $1.5 million a year.

 

[McD5]

I think below is a pretty accurate description of what I just wrote, or how others outside of our own fans view the two.

Executive Bruce Allen has already admitted the team will let Morris reach the open market, but Keim reports they're unlikely to re-sign him even at a team-friendly rate. Per Keim, the Redskins were frustrated with Morris' "lack of productivity" last season, "especially when the blocking wasn't there." Keim reports there's "a belief" that Morris' 1,078 career carries have already taken a toll on his effectiveness. Morris' 1,613 rushing yards as a rookie were the 49th most in NFL history, but his production has steadily waned ever since. He was a product of ex-coach Mike Shanahan's zone-blocking scheme. Feb 4 - 4:00 PM

Alfred Morris - Washington Redskins - 2016 Player Profile - Rotoworld.com

The Miami Herald's Adam Beasley reports the Dolphins "definitely" want to re-sign impending free agent Lamar Miller.

Beasley correctly says the sticking point will be Miller's price tag. Miller will not turn 25 until April and has averaged 4.6 yards on 638 career rushing attempts. Explosive and young, Miller is arguably the highest-upside back available in free agency and should command north of $5 million annually. Miami is in the process of clearing serious cap space, but that still may be too high a price to pay with sophomore Jay Ajayi waiting in the wings.

Lamar Miller - Miami Dolphins - 2016 Player Profile - Rotoworld.com

 

[Goaldeje]

Miller has more than 200 carries once. And that topped out at like 220 or something. When Henry says he's never carried an NFL offense with 250-300 carries, that's what he means.

Hard to dispute facts. /shrugs

 

[McD5]

With that said, I can't see either Miller or Jones being used as a third down back. I'm also pretty sure that we'll draft another. But what type of RB would we draft?

Someone to compete with Matt Jones, or someone to compete with Chris Thompson? Not an easy call.

 

[Henry]

McD5,

Im not sure why you keep comparing Miller to Morris. Its an irrelevant comparison.

What is important now is who replaces Morris, not whether or not he should be replaced.

I dont think it should be Miller. Not unless he comes at the price of a part-of-a-comittee back, which by most accounts isnt going to happen.

Let Dallas swoon over the guy. They havent been able to find a consistantly durable feature back since Smith. They have no idea what they are looking at.