~***Breaking***~ - Sam Howell traded to Seattle

[SkinsOrlando]

Are picks lucky, though?

I didn't do a deep dive but I wonder how many of the #199 overall picks made it in the NFL over that time?

Of course Tom Brady was selected with that pick in 2000.

Here they are from 97 on

 

[Neophyte]

It's a tough position to judge like that though. The vast majority of QBs taken outside of Rounds 1 & 2 never see any meaningful game time in the league. By virtue of draft position, they just aren't viewed as having the pedigree. It usually takes a near Act of God for these guys to get on the field.

Look at recent lower draft choices to get a chance:
Brady - came after an injury to Bledsoe
Warner - season-ending injury to Green in late pre-season
Romo - multiple years behind pedigreed QBs like Vinny Testaverde, Vince Carter, and Drew Bledsoe before getting a chance because of the ineffectiveness of Bledsoe - nearly cut twice
Cousins - injury/ineffectiveness with Griffin
Purdy - injury to Lance
Howell - dumpster fire at the position w/ Wentz/Heinickie and team out of contention

The only guy I can find/remember to get a legit shot on his own after being drafted below Round 2 is Russell Wilson and even he wasn't drafted to be an immediate starter. The Seahawks had signed Matt Flynn that offseason to be their starter but he turned out to be horrible in pre-season and Wilson won the job for Week 1.

So if you are a later-round pick at QB you are quite literally reduced to hoping the other guys in your QB room get injured or totally bomb so you get a chance, otherwise your career is reduced to backup/practice squad without ever getting a look.

The sad part is I'd be willing to bet there are a number of guys on that list who could have had really good NFL careers if they had gotten a legit chance but because they were low draft picks, no one gave it to them.

 

[SkinsOrlando]

I think it still comes down to, "there's nothing for sure" in sports. To your point Neo, timing and circumstance seem to be a large dictator of success, not just in sports either. If Montana doesn't get hurt does Young ever really see the field? Without TD, Elway wouldn't be remembered a winner but as Marino with more Super Bowl losses. It's always going to be conjecture until it actually happens.

 

[Chris]

I have no idea how much of a role luck plays but I sure hope that luck is shining on Washington on April 25th.

 

[Bulldog]

We need the kind of luck the Rams had with Kurt Warner as a street free agent signing who is Super Bowl MVP a year later

 

[Primus Porcus]

Back in the day i heard a quote

Luck is where preparation meets opportunity.


I don't think it's an accident that certain players go to certain situations and thrive. I don't think it's an accident that seemingly the same front offices get 'lucky' later in the draft than others. The draft position is the least important guage of a player's ability to succeed in the NFL. Physical talent is at an all time high, and you can find 4.3 guys in all 7 rounds. NFL players are elite atheletes.

Player evaluation, as well as development is, imho, EXPONENTIALLY more a determining factor regarding a player being good or not, not 'luck.' If Kurt Warner comes to Washington, is he as successful over the same time period? Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady? Would they have been more successful than what we had? Probably... but I'm not buyin some notion that Tom Brady was all 'luck' beyond the fact that he was available when New England decided to pick him.

We may get 'lucky' that a guy we want doesn't get picked by a team ahead of us, but I don't think the hit / miss is luck.

 

[Kel Varnsen]

We need the kind of luck the Rams had with Kurt Warner as a street free agent signing who is Super Bowl MVP a year later

Shhh! If you say it too loud, there’s a guy who will jump back on here under a new account to say we had it with Heinicke and just never gave him a chance.

 

[Bulldog]

Well, when Arthur Blank said that the quarterback play in 2023 in Atlanta was 'deficient' I suppose he only meant Desmond Ridder because Heinicke is still on the roster and set to backup Kirk Cousins.

 

[SkinsNumberOne]

Back in the day i heard a quote

Luck is where preparation meets opportunity.


I don't think it's an accident that certain players go to certain situations and thrive. I don't think it's an accident that seemingly the same front offices get 'lucky' later in the draft than others. The draft position is the least important guage of a player's ability to succeed in the NFL. Physical talent is at an all time high, and you can find 4.3 guys in all 7 rounds. NFL players are elite atheletes.

Player evaluation, as well as development is, imho, EXPONENTIALLY more a determining factor regarding a player being good or not, not 'luck.' If Kurt Warner comes to Washington, is he as successful over the same time period? Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady? Would they have been more successful than what we had? Probably... but I'm not buyin some notion that Tom Brady was all 'luck' beyond the fact that he was available when New England decided to pick him.

We may get 'lucky' that a guy we want doesn't get picked by a team ahead of us, but I don't think the hit / miss is luck.

I think the concept of "luck" gets involved when you look at the actual possibility of knowing every factor. I remember when I was investing in stocks and someone was saying it was like gambling - I mean, I took offense, but then when I was invested in a company doing great and the CEO then got attacked for sexual harassment and the value cratered, it does reflect some aspects of luck and gambling. There are other stories I have that are even more severe, like Paramount and a hedge fund guy who made the value skyrocket 5x in one-day, and then it cratered back down a few days later, 5x up, 5/ down. Anyway, my point is, anytime you are "investing" there are measures of luck. Your eval process is almost never perfect, and it almost can't be. Yes, you can meet the family, go into some really detailed research and try to really limit how much bad stuff can actually happen that you're unprepared for, but at the end of the day the stars do have to align. A big part of the game is doing what you can to limit what is luck and what is not.

By the way, to your point on Brady and others:

The unsung heroes who spurred the Patriots to draft Tom Brady when no other team wanted to

Scouts wondered why Tom Brady hadn't separated himself sooner in college. But Dick Rehbein and Bobby Grier saw that Michigan had made the mistake, not Brady.

sports.yahoo.com

How The Patriots Drafted A Hall Of Fame Quarterback In The 6th Round

The Patriots were fortunate, but drafting Tom Brady was not all luck.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[Primus Porcus]

I think the concept of "luck" gets involved when you look at the actual possibility of knowing every factor. I remember when I was investing in stocks and someone was saying it was like gambling - I mean, I took offense, but then when I was invested in a company doing great and the CEO then got attacked for sexual harassment and the value cratered, it does reflect some aspects of luck and gambling. There are other stories I have that are even more severe, like Paramount and a hedge fund guy who made the value skyrocket 5x in one-day, and then it cratered back down a few days later, 5x up, 5/ down. Anyway, my point is, anytime you are "investing" there are measures of luck. Your eval process is almost never perfect, and it almost can't be. Yes, you can meet the family, go into some really detailed research and try to really limit how much bad stuff can actually happen that you're unprepared for, but at the end of the day the stars do have to align. A big part of the game is doing what you can to limit what is luck and what is not.

By the way, to your point on Brady and others:

The unsung heroes who spurred the Patriots to draft Tom Brady when no other team wanted to

Scouts wondered why Tom Brady hadn't separated himself sooner in college. But Dick Rehbein and Bobby Grier saw that Michigan had made the mistake, not Brady.

sports.yahoo.com

How The Patriots Drafted A Hall Of Fame Quarterback In The 6th Round

The Patriots were fortunate, but drafting Tom Brady was not all luck.

www.businessinsider.com

Fair, but that's also just the first stage of it. The trajectories of these prospects are not set. There are many football related effects that are going to have influence over the ultimate careers. Coaching, schematic fit, injury, training staff... things that are 100% out of the control of the player. None of these things are 'luck' on behalf of the team either. To the point about Brady, identifying him as a potential QB on the roster was the first step. Taking him in the draft was the second. There are an umpteenth number of things that then went into Brady, again, a lot he had absolutely no control of, but someone did, that turned him into the QB that currently resides on the mount rushmore of QBs in the history of the NFL. Those factors are things like Roster Construction, health among the rest of the team, and the investment of other things around the facility that are not 'lucky.'

I guess my point is I don't want to just believe it's lucky, because there's so much about a player being successful that isn't just 'luck.'

 

[burgold]

Yep, no matter how much due diligence you do there’s always info you can’t get or acts of G-d lurking.

 

[Primus Porcus]

Yep, no matter how much due diligence you do there’s always info you can’t get or acts of G-d lurking.

Agreed


But I also think we've been massively lacking in the 'due diligence' part of things also, and that there are a lot of franchises out there that find a way to remove as much 'luck' from the equation.

 

[burgold]

100% or the due diligence is ignored to satisfy the owner’s pet desires.

 

[DixieFlatline]

It's a tough position to judge like that though. The vast majority of QBs taken outside of Rounds 1 & 2 never see any meaningful game time in the league. By virtue of draft position, they just aren't viewed as having the pedigree. It usually takes a near Act of God for these guys to get on the field.

Look at recent lower draft choices to get a chance:
Brady - came after an injury to Bledsoe
Warner - season-ending injury to Green in late pre-season
Romo - multiple years behind pedigreed QBs like Vinny Testaverde, Vince Carter, and Drew Bledsoe before getting a chance because of the ineffectiveness of Bledsoe - nearly cut twice
Cousins - injury/ineffectiveness with Griffin
Purdy - injury to Lance
Howell - dumpster fire at the position w/ Wentz/Heinickie and team out of contention

The only guy I can find/remember to get a legit shot on his own after being drafted below Round 2 is Russell Wilson and even he wasn't drafted to be an immediate starter. The Seahawks had signed Matt Flynn that offseason to be their starter but he turned out to be horrible in pre-season and Wilson won the job for Week 1.

So if you are a later-round pick at QB you are quite literally reduced to hoping the other guys in your QB room get injured or totally bomb so you get a chance, otherwise your career is reduced to backup/practice squad without ever getting a look.

The sad part is I'd be willing to bet there are a number of guys on that list who could have had really good NFL careers if they had gotten a legit chance but because they were low draft picks, no one gave it to them.

When did the rookie salary cap come in? Wasn't RGIII the inaugural year? I would suspect that has an effect too. Before then you had a lot of money tied up with those early QBs, so you were incentivized to keep playing them.