BGO Blind Pig: QB Free Agent and Trade Options (Poll Added)

[Boone]

On this week’s episode, we agonize over available QBs on the free agent market or possible trade targets. The guys are ‘less than enthusiastic’ …

 

[Boone]

This alone is grounds for taking him off our list lol…

 

[Primus Porcus]

HAHA

He's always been accused of being a little 'doughy' I'll say, he doesn't look 'doughy' there.

 

[SkinsOrlando]

Good pod as usual, I think staying away from the Rodgers and Wilson stuff comes because you guys have the smarts to know, that isn't happening and it's just noise whether we'd like it to be reality or not, those guys aren't coming to the Commanders. I find Trubisky intriguing and could deal with him at a reasonable cost but I think he'll want at least a 3 year commitment and I dunno if I could stomach that unless it's 3 years but all guaranteed upfront in case he the bed so we have a quick release valve. I have a sneaking feeling we draft and run it back with Taylor this year, there's really no clear cut option that makes the ol jimmy jump to attention this offseason for me that makes more sense.

 

[Chris]

Trubisky’s value and options are currently rising by the minute. He looks like the leading front-runner in the FA QB derby.

Timing is everything, they say.

 

[Boone]

Good pod as usual, I think staying away from the Rodgers and Wilson stuff comes because you guys have the smarts to know, that isn't happening and it's just noise whether we'd like it to be reality or not, those guys aren't coming to the Commanders. I find Trubisky intriguing and could deal with him at a reasonable cost but I think he'll want at least a 3 year commitment and I dunno if I could stomach that unless it's 3 years but all guaranteed upfront in case he the bed so we have a quick release valve. I have a sneaking feeling we draft and run it back with Taylor this year, there's really no clear cut option that makes the ol jimmy jump to attention this offseason for me that makes more sense.

Well, on Trubisky, my counter thought to that is, why are you bringing him in if you don't think he's worth at least a 3 year commitment? I would hope we are past the 'let's just sign someone and see if by chance they can get the job done' approach. If you think he's got what it takes, sign him. If you don't, go another direction. Pretty simple in my mind.

 

[Knightingale]

Listened to the pod today on the way home from work. Awesome job, chaps!

I pretty much concur with everything you said. Of all the veteran options on the table, the one I could live with would be Trubisky. I'm intrigued enough by his potential upside to see what he's got. I'm just not sure how much I'd be willing to pay for him.
If, as you say, timing is everything and he's the flavor of the month, then he could get pretty pricy.
However, I'm also in the camp that we should draft a QB and then roll with Heineke till he's ready.

Who that rookie is? I don't know. I keep hearing that Willis is the one with the most upside out of this class, but needs time. In a draft class this shallow, I think I'd rather draft on potential and hope he turns into something special.
If not, then draft again next year.

I think at this point you just keep rolling the dice in the first round until you find that one QB who will lead you forward for the next decade (or more). I was shocked to hear that statistic that despite not having a franchise QB for 30years, we've only drafted a handful of times at that position. It would be an interesting exercise to look back over 30 years of drafts and see who we COULD have had at our first-round draft positions every year.

In fact... let's look... Just for S&Gs. I'm NOT going to look at what we could have had if we traded up. Just what was on the board when we picked.

2000 Draft. We picked number 2 - Our pick: LeVar Arrington (LB) QB next up: Chad Pennington. (Infamously, this was the draft where Tom Brady was still on the board for EVERYONE in round 1)
2001 Draft. We picked number 15 - Our pick: Rod Gardner (WR) QB next up: Drew Brees (33rd pick - Round 2)
2002 Draft. We picked number 32 - Our pick: Patrick Ramsey (QB) QB next up: Josh McCown (81st pick - Round 3)
2003 Draft. We picked number 44 - Our pick (44 - No 1st round pick): Taylor Jacobs (WR) QB next up: Dave Ragone (88th pick - Round 3) Note: This is the draft where Rex Grossman went at pick 22.
2004 Draft. We picked number 5 - Our pick: Sean Taylor (S) QB next up: Ben Roethlisberger (11th pick) Note: Tough call in hindsight. I LOVE Sean, but would we have been better long-term with BigBen? Who knows.
2005 Draft. We picked number 9 - Our pick: Carlos Rogers (CB) QB next up: Aaron Rodgers (24th pick) Note: Well... bugger.
2006 Draft. We picked number 35 - Our pick: Rocky McIntosh (LB) QB next up: Kellen Clemens (49th pick) Note: Not a great year for QBs
2007 Draft. We picked number 6 - Our pick: LaRon Landry (S) QB next up: Brady Quinn (22nd pick) Note: Another crappy year for QBs
2008 Draft. We picked number 34 - Our pick: Devin Thomas (WR) QB next up: Brian Brohm (56th pick) Note: Chad Henne also came later, but I don't think we missed out here.
2009 Draft. We picked number 13 - Our pick: Brian Orakpo (OLB) QB next up: Josh Freeman (17th pick)
2010 Draft. We picked number 4 - Our pick: Trent Williams (OT) QB next up: Tim Tebow (25th pick) Note: Think we did fine here! LOL (Colt McCoy was in this draft)
2011 Draft. We picked number 16 - Our pick: Ryan Kerrigan (DE) QB next up: Andy Dalton (35th pick) Note: Kaepernick was at 36, Tyrod Taylor was at 180.
2012 Draft. We picked number 2 - Our pick: RGIII (DE) QB next up: Ryan Tannehill (8th pick) Note: Hmmm. RGIII looked solid at the time, but Tannehill has outlasted him. PLUS...Russell Wilson went at 75 and we also obvs took Cousins at 102
2013 Draft. We picked number 51 - Our pick: David Amerson (CB) QB next up: Mike Glennon (75rd pick) Note: At this point, we think we were golden with RGIII as the wheels hadn't come off that wagon yet.
2014 Draft. We picked number 47 - Our pick: Trent Murphy (LB) QB next up: Jimmy Garropolo (62nd pick) Note: Interestingly, Logan Thomas went as a QB with the 120th pick!
2015 Draft. We picked number 16 - Our pick: Brandon Scherff (OT) QB next up: Garrett Grayson (75th pick)
2016 Draft. We picked number 22 - Our pick: Josh Doctson (WR) QB next up: Paxton Lynch (26th pick) Note: Dak Prescott was up with pick 135
2017 Draft. We picked number 17 - Our pick: Jonathan Allen (DE) QB next up: DeShone Kizer (52nd pick) Note: This was the Mahomes and Watson draft, but they went higher than our pick.
2018 Draft. We picked number 13 - Our pick: Daron Payne (NT) QB next up: Lamar Jackson (32nd pick)
2019 Draft. We picked number 15 - Our pick: Dwayne Haskins (QB) QB next up: Drew Lock (42nd pick) Note: Crappy pick, but honestly QBs in this draft were slim pickings.
2020 Draft. We picked number 2 - Our pick: Chase Young (DE) QB next up: Tua Tagovailoa (5th pick) Note: Justin Herbert at 6. Would he have been a better pick than Chase?
2021 Draft. We picked number 2 - Our pick: Jamin Davis (LB) QB next up: Kyle Trask (64th pick)

My observations...

I know hindsight is a wonderful thing, but...
Apart from the Sean Taylor pick, our first-round drafting was seriously awful from 2000 to 2008. And during that time, despite the fact we had little in the way of decent QBs (except perhaps for Brunell), there were a bunch of future elite QBs on the
board we could have picked. Brady, Brees, Big Ben, Aaron Rodgers were all there. To be fair, A LOT of teams missed them. (If you expand it to the full 21 years, we also missing on Wilson, and Prescott. So potentially we missed out on 6 franchise level QBs over the years).
Some years, we were just in the wrong position to draft the top QBs that year.
Can't argue much with the picks from 2009 to 2012. Pretty solid in the moment.
The span of 1st Round drafts from 2015 to 2020 was pretty solid except for the epic Haskins reach (tbf there weren't many other QBs available for us to take that year without a trade-up)
Another big miscalculation was taking Doctson in 2016 when Prescott was available. Of course, with hindsight, we had Kirk at the time, and nobody picked up Prescott.

I guess what I come away with, is the fact that we've very rarely drafted QB despite needing one for most of the past 20years. We very rarely even take late-round punts on development QBs.
11 QBs taken in 21 years, despite our need.

Personally, I hope we start mining the draft until we hit gold. Gotta be in it to win it.

 

[Kel Varnsen]

Great job as always. It’s a good listen when I’m out for a walk in this nice weather.

Boone you should add the poll here that you posed on the podcast.

 

[Boone]

Great job as always. It’s a good listen when I’m out for a walk in this nice weather.

Boone you should add the poll here that you posed on the podcast.

Great idea!

 

[Primus Porcus]

Listened to the pod today on the way home from work. Awesome job, chaps!

I pretty much concur with everything you said. Of all the veteran options on the table, the one I could live with would be Trubisky. I'm intrigued enough by his potential upside to see what he's got. I'm just not sure how much I'd be willing to pay for him.
If, as you say, timing is everything and he's the flavor of the month, then he could get pretty pricy.
However, I'm also in the camp that we should draft a QB and then roll with Heineke till he's ready.

Who that rookie is? I don't know. I keep hearing that Willis is the one with the most upside out of this class, but needs time. In a draft class this shallow, I think I'd rather draft on potential and hope he turns into something special.
If not, then draft again next year.

I think at this point you just keep rolling the dice in the first round until you find that one QB who will lead you forward for the next decade (or more). I was shocked to hear that statistic that despite not having a franchise QB for 30years, we've only drafted a handful of times at that position. It would be an interesting exercise to look back over 30 years of drafts and see who we COULD have had at our first-round draft positions every year.

.......

My observations...

I know hindsight is a wonderful thing, but...
Apart from the Sean Taylor pick, our first-round drafting was seriously awful from 2000 to 2008. And during that time, despite the fact we had little in the way of decent QBs (except perhaps for Brunell), there were a bunch of future elite QBs on the
board we could have picked. Brady, Brees, Big Ben, Aaron Rodgers were all there. To be fair, A LOT of teams missed them. (If you expand it to the full 21 years, we also missing on Wilson, and Prescott. So potentially we missed out on 6 franchise level QBs over the years).
Some years, we were just in the wrong position to draft the top QBs that year.
Can't argue much with the picks from 2009 to 2012. Pretty solid in the moment.
The span of 1st Round drafts from 2015 to 2020 was pretty solid except for the epic Haskins reach (tbf there weren't many other QBs available for us to take that year without a trade-up)
Another big miscalculation was taking Doctson in 2016 when Prescott was available. Of course, with hindsight, we had Kirk at the time, and nobody picked up Prescott.

I guess what I come away with, is the fact that we've very rarely drafted QB despite needing one for most of the past 20years. We very rarely even take late-round punts on development QBs.
11 QBs taken in 21 years, despite our need.

Personally, I hope we start mining the draft until we hit gold. Gotta be in it to win it.

GREAT POST Knight.

I think we're staring the Rivera 'era' dead in the face at a major crossroads. The more I think about it, the more I feel Trubisky is a risk than drafting ANY of the QBs at 11. If Rivera hitches his wagon to Trubisky, he better be right. another sub -.500 season is not going to be good. Whoever as added to this roster at QB is very likely going to be QB1 when it's time for Rivera and Snyder (or other owner... fingers crossed) to negotiate his next contract. 7-10 with Trubisky aint gonna cut it. 7-10 with a rookie in the process of developing is a VERY different narrative.

Just a caveat to that... there's nothing to guarantee that Rivera even WANTS another contract here. Given the turmoil and nonsense that he's had to deal with over the last 48 months (not to mention the last 30 years), he may just say "this aint worth it."

I can't hold the dreggs of the last 2 decades and missed QBs against THIS front office, but if my faith in them is going to continue.. something has to happen. THIS is the draft to find the QB imho. I know it's 'weak' but that puts more of an emphasis on talent evaluation and getting it right. A GREAT front office is going to find the right guy in this draft and know exactly what they need to get the most out of them regarding HOW they develop him. Look, Tom Brady would not be Tom Brady without Bill Belechick and the way he was developed. That doesn't mean he would been an failure, but he may not have been AS GOOD. IF Washington took him in that draft, are we looking back now at 6 more rings on the mantle? Does the Commanders name announcement have 9 Lombaridis? I think we all know the answer to that question.

Some guys have 'it' more than others, but at the end of the day, development is probably just as important as ability. So if Rivera and co. draft a guy this year and hit on him... that's just a bigger testiment to their abilities. If they DONT... then it's the same excuses. "We tried for Staffrd" "We Tried for Wilson" "We liked Herbert, but Chase Young was staring us in the face"... and I'm STILL not upset with them for taking him... but I also look at them and say "BE DAMNED what the rest of the world thinks, if your guy is there you take him regardless of position" AND WITH THAT QB is the most important position in sport. I need my front office to be smarter than me...

 

[Boone]

Just a side note... I'm seeing a lot of folks imply that Rivera is on (or potentially could soon be on) the 'hot seat'. I don't believe that's the case. The guy has had to navigate more than any NFL coach in recent memory his first several seasons. I'll be bold and say he will absolutely be offered a 2nd contract. Of course, anything can happen and even for likable capable coaches, it's all about the recent record. That was true even for Rivera in Carolina.

But I think with the launch of the new franchise identity, it's sort of a 'do over' for Rivera. It's not like he's been a failure his first 2 seasons. I know you aren't saying he has been ST - but I think short of absolute disaster, a string of 4-6 win seasons, I think he'll be the coach in Washington as long as he wants to be.

 

[Boone]

Poll added

 

[Kel Varnsen]

I went with Jimmy G and Carson Wentz. The Wentz pick was solely based on talent not on any of his alleged problems with his teammates. That is something that scares me, but none of these guys are ideal. But I’ll also say this about Wentz. His coaches have been Pederson, who seems like a let them do what they want players coach, and Reich who seems to be from the more laid back positive reinforcement Tony Dungy school of coaching. Rivera isn’t a grab you by the face mask scream and yell tough guy coach, but he’s somewhere in between what Wentz has had and that overbearing tough guy. Maybe he needs someone with a little more toughness to get the best out of him and make him more liked in the locker room. Of course, maybe Rivera is not that guy, I’m just hypothesizing on how to fix his alleged issues.

As for Jimmy G, I agree with the comments on the podcast that he seems to make mistakes in critical moments. But he’s also taken his teams further than any Redskins/Football Team QB has since 91. So that represents an improvement for this team. We know he’s not ideal, but none of these guys are. He may be the best available option and if he is, they should go after him.

 

[Boone]

I actually changed my picks to Trubisky (because I still think he could be a 'hidden gem' ala Tannehill, who might thrive in the right environment) and Wentz because he's probably the most talented available guy. I had the same thought you had Kel that maybe Rivera could get his mind right? I avoided Winston (although I get the argument for him) only because of the ACL injury and I think he's had more opportunities to show who he is and it hasn't been good - something's missing there. This might be true for Wentz as well, but he's a much better decision-maker so would be willing to take a risk.

 

[Chris]

I voted for Trubisky and then Winston because I had to pick two. 😉

I am solidly in the camp of sign 1, draft 1. Based on the Senior Bowl and the Combine, for what that was worth, I want Trubisky and Pickett. Desmond Ridder if Pickett is gone.

 

[Kel Varnsen]

My issue with Winston is I can’t get over the turnovers. Being a 30/30 guy is impressive in baseball, but not football. He just seems like that Jay Cutler, Rex Grossman type to just chuck it deep because I have a big arm. He also had some outstanding receiving options in Tampa and still threw 30 INTs. The guy averages over 17 INTs a year in his 5 full seasons of play. He also averaged 10 fumbles a year in those 5 years. He’s going to lose as many games as he will win and that’s not good.

 

[Boone]

I think Mark's point - which is a good one - is that he appeared (granted, in a small sample size) to have turned the corner last year before the ACL tear. Maybe sitting behind an all-time great in Brees did him some good? But turnover issues are part of his history for sure. Wentz has about half the INT rate by comparison.

 

[Chris]

Being coached by Sean Peyton didn’t hurt his development either.

Neither Winston or Wentz pass my personality test though. Jameis is too goofy for my liking and Carson is too much of a dick.

 

[Primus Porcus]

Just a side note... I'm seeing a lot of folks imply that Rivera is on (or potentially could soon be on) the 'hot seat'. I don't believe that's the case. The guy has had to navigate more than any NFL coach in recent memory his first several seasons. I'll be bold and say he will absolutely be offered a 2nd contract. Of course, anything can happen and even for likable capable coaches, it's all about the recent record. That was true even for Rivera in Carolina.

But I think with the launch of the new franchise identity, it's sort of a 'do over' for Rivera. It's not like he's been a failure his first 2 seasons. I know you aren't saying he has been ST - but I think short of absolute disaster, a string of 4-6 win seasons, I think he'll be the coach in Washington as long as he wants to be.

I think it depends on how you define 'hot seat.' I wasn't suggesting he would get fired, I just mean that he's got 3 years left on his current contract and the QB he invests in this offseason is very likely the QB1 when him and the owner sit down to discuss contract extensions. If he invests in a Garappolo, trades assets to get him, pays him with the top tier QBs in the league, and it DOESNT work... we're looking at a troublesome couple of seasons without the luxury of a direction at QB for the future... when they sit down and talk about another $5+ mil per year contract, it's going to weigh heavily on what direction the team wants to go at HC. The same can be said about Trubisky, Winston, or Wentz if we're signing them to a multi-year contract.


All I'm suggesting is that Rivera is married to whoever he invests this years draft at QB. Whether that be trading the pick away for a starter, drafting a QB early, or bypassing QB again and waiting til next year.. It's not a fireable offense, but like I said, it could influence the direction the team goes after this contract expires.

 

[Knightingale]

I kind of feel like a little of the power here resides with Rivera. I definitely don't think he's on the hot seat, in fact, I think (like Boone) that unless he really screws-the-pooch, he'll be back for a second contract (if he wants it).

Washington just went through a rebranding exercise, which in many ways has NOT gone over well with the majority of the fan base. We all hate Snyder. Wright has dropped the ball a few times. The dates issue on the patch was a giant SNAFU.
And we've had a long history now of front-office dysfunction, including all the sexual misconduct allegations, etc.

The ONE thing about this organization that is currently respected by the fans, press, players etc... is Rivera. Something especially important as the face of a rebrand. I think he has a pretty long leash at this point.

Side note: Did anyone see the footage of Malik Willis at the combine? That deep ball was sweeeeeeeeeet! (I know it's just the combine, but still... makes you wonder what he could do with McLaurin)