Bears @ Commanders - Day After Thread

[Dah-Dee]

That Swift TD is a comedy of errors, it's embarrassing. Lattimore lets Moore just push him straight back into Martin, who stands there like an idiot and lets it happen. Martin is a beat slow in any event reacting to Swift cutting outside, meaning that was going to be a catch with room to run even if Martin hadn't let Lattimore screen him off the play. The missed tackle is just the cherry on that crap sundae.

I don't know what the hell Martin was doing on the second play, just totally misread it, and apparently the only person on offense or defense or on the sideline or in the crowd or in the bathroom who did. Bizarre. Nice job by Luvu on escorting the runner down the field though.

 

[Gooseneck]

Sad game; just saw it. Observation; this will be a tough year with the injuries. What seems solid is our offenses but need someone other than Noah Brown (like him if he remains healthy). I think we resign Wiley, can play along the line, Allgretti, mobility can play center, Coleman a chance to compete- he is signed, I assume we do not resign Lattimore and have 100,000,000 and the draft. A good third WR, and resign Wiley extend Deebo we still have 60,000,000, and the draft. I think that builds us a very good defense. Assuming Wagner is gone. Probably need to pick up a TE later in the draft if Ertz goes/

 

[Kel Varnsen]

Look at this play by Quan. Where the hell he going???

The Swift missed tackle on the TD, what makes that worse is he doesn’t even have to tackle him there. He can just push him out of bounds. So it’s not just a tackling error, it’s a mental error too. That second clip, I have no idea what is going on unless he is supposed to be the one to watch the backside. But it looks awful seeing him run completely away from the ball carrier.

 

[SkinsNumberOne]

The Swift missed tackle on the TD, what makes that worse is he doesn’t even have to tackle him there. He can just push him out of bounds. So it’s not just a tackling error, it’s a mental error too. That second clip, I have no idea what is going on unless he is supposed to be the one to watch the backside. But it looks awful seeing him run completely away from the ball carrier.

I think you got it right, there are calls for players to watch the backside, I don't know how common it is for a safety to be in that position to the extent that he seemed to go, but it does seem reasonable based on his body movement. He pivots pretty fully to the spot you'd expect backside coverage to go too as soon as it is clear where the run is going.

 

[SkinsNumberOne]

By the way, quick observation, for those who say our run game is "creative enough" - that sweep play doesn't exist at all in our playbook. It can be situationally useful to spread out a defense with the run as opposed to screens which have different dynamics in their execution (blocking/coverage/etc). Some OCs look at a WR screen and a sweep as attacking the same area and almost seem to conclude they can leave it at that. I completely disagree. We haven't had a sweep in our playbook for 5 years, I think. Not sure about that, but we had screen-happy OCs for 5-years; guys who love screens vs outside runs and have seemed to see them as replaceable.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

By the way, quick observation, for those who say our run game is "creative enough" - that sweep play doesn't exist at all in our playbook. It can be situationally useful to spread out a defense with the run as opposed to screens which have different dynamics in their execution (blocking/coverage/etc). Some OCs look at a WR screen and a sweep as attacking the same area and almost seem to conclude they can leave it at that. I completely disagree. We haven't had a sweep in our playbook for 5 years, I think. Not sure about that, but we had screen-happy OCs for 5-years; guys who love screens vs outside runs and have seemed to see them as replaceable.

We generally have run a few end-arounds per game. Which is kindof like a sweep. My understanding is the traditional sweep, where you toss the ball to a running back and they attack the outside shoulder of the tackle, who is on the move, is meant to get the ball outside so your primary blockers are the tackle, TE and any WR outside, and you essentially run away from the interior of the defense.

I think we do that a lot, but in different ways. End-arounds, we do a lot of counter-action where the ball is headed to the outside with a pulling guard/tackle, or tackle/TE. We also do the same thing with read option type runs, where Daniels reads the DE, and then if the DE crashes, keeps the ball to stretch to the outside.

I grant you, we don't toss the ball out to the running back much. That's also a play you mostly run from under center, at least traditionally. We don't get under center much because it's not where Daniels is most comfortable.

 

[SkinsNumberOne]

I grant you, we don't toss the ball out to the running back much. That's also a play you mostly run from under center, at least traditionally. We don't get under center much because it's not where Daniels is most comfortable.

I am not totally convinced that it is because it's not where Daniels is most comfortable - I am thinking that it is more of a Kliff thing. After all, on the other side of this game was a guy drafted #1 last year who was comfortable under center. There is also historical data; I am no expert on the Cardinals, but searching "Cardinals Shotgun" made this nugget appear pretty high in the results:

Cardinals' Kliff Kingsbury sees no reason not to snap it out of shotgun

The Arizona Cardinals' Kyler Murray may take a snap under center here or there, but expect Kliff Kingsbury to use shotgun a large majority of the time.

arizonasports.com

All indicating Kliff likes the shotgun, and that may be more the reasoning than anything on Daniels' side.

 

[Conn]

I am not totally convinced that it is because it's not where Daniels is most comfortable - I am thinking that it is more of a Kliff thing. After all, on the other side of this game was a guy drafted #1 last year who was comfortable under center. There is also historical data; I am no expert on the Cardinals, but searching "Cardinals Shotgun" made this nugget appear pretty high in the results:

Cardinals' Kliff Kingsbury sees no reason not to snap it out of shotgun

The Arizona Cardinals' Kyler Murray may take a snap under center here or there, but expect Kliff Kingsbury to use shotgun a large majority of the time.

arizonasports.com

All indicating Kliff likes the shotgun, and that may be more the reasoning than anything on Daniels' side.

Kliff clearly loves shotgun/pistol, but it’s also logical to give your mobile QB a clear view of the lanes opening in the defense, that’s free rushing yardage from Daniels when he’s healthy. He sees things very well and being set back from the line helps with that.

Kyler was a midget, he needed shotgun to see anything and still has zero ability to see the middle of the field. Kliff didn’t have much choice there, although it did play into his obvious preferences, agreed.

All that said, there’s still a place for under center looks here and Kliff should explore that. There are times when it makes no sense to make 3rd and 2 into 3rd and 6 for the RB because they get the handoff so far back. Now JCM ran a lot out of shotgun in college and has great vision set that far back from the line, it works well at times. But there are still times where under center runs are smarter and more efficient.

 

[SkinsNumberOne]

Kliff clearly loves shotgun/pistol, but it’s also logical to give your mobile QB a clear view of the lanes opening in the defense, that’s free rushing yardage from Daniels when he’s healthy. He sees things very well and being set back from the line helps with that.

Kyler was a midget, he needed shotgun to see anything and still has zero ability to see the middle of the field. Kliff didn’t have much choice there, although it did play into his obvious preferences, agreed.

All that said, there’s still a place for under center looks here and Kliff should explore that. There are times when it makes no sense to make 3rd and 2 into 3rd and 6 for the RB because they get the handoff so far back. Now JCM ran a lot out of shotgun in college and has great vision set that far back from the line, it works well at times. But there are still times where under center runs are smarter and more efficient.

It won't happen; at least, "I will believe it when I see it."

I mean, if Kliff has been doing it for this long, I don't expect him to change; and the playbook is extensive - and there are plenty of quotes (like in that article) which I think show his stance. The data won't show some big advantage, but I have lived a life of looking at data that doesn't show advantages, and yet seeing clearly that logic does. It happens oh so frequently, but you know, biases can lead one to support using "data" to block out logic (we also see that frequently!).

I don't really blame Kliff, in a way - but I do think it handicaps our offense unfortunately. I think Kliff is a really good OC in many ways. I do not think he really likes running the ball (plenty of quotes to support that), and I don't think our running game is as strong as it could/should be. It doesn't mean our offense sucks or anything of the sort, due to Kliff's talents, but I think we are unnecessarily weaker, and against the league's best / prepared defenses (regular season v postseason; the best coordinators take it up a notch...), we're going to have trouble. It just means getting to the Super Bowl and winning (first getting there) is unnecessarily harder than it has to be (in my opinion). It's not really an opinion that has to change even if we make the Super Bowl, mind you. That's the great thing. I can whistle my opinion around as much as I like.

Haha!

By the way, just another quick search if we need any more evidence, but https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl...-texas-tech-air-raid/32e4caf24458dc9fa15b7ea2 ---
As the name suggests, the offense is pass-heavy and utilizes multiple receivers to spread the defense out while attacking downfield. It doesn't feature much of a running game, either. Quarterbacks typically run the offense out of the shotgun, and it's usually a fast-paced system, most of the time going no-huddle.

In Washington, the Commanders don't run a pure Air Raid system, even though there are elements to it in the system. Jayden Daniels' running ability paired with Brian Robinson's rushing attack makes it a bit more of a hybrid Air Raid.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

In Washington, the Commanders don't run a pure Air Raid system, even though there are elements to it in the system. Jayden Daniels' running ability paired with Brian Robinson's rushing attack makes it a bit more of a hybrid Air Raid.

Quote from an article from Kliff's new hire press conference: Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury specifically stated he "wouldn't categorize anything we do under that name" when asked if his offense in Washington would be the "Air Raid"

I also think too much is made of being under center vs. shotgun/pistol.

One other thing, I don't think the offense Kliff is running now looks like the offense he ran in Arizona, nor did that really look like the offense when he was at Texas Tech with Mahomes. He's evolved as an offensive guy. Sure, he has some principals he sticks to, but I think you have to give him credit as to how he's evolved.

Also, even given all the players in and out, including the starting QB, we still have a top 10 offense and the 3rd best point differential (with a crappy defense) in the NFC.

There aren't many OCs (or offensive Head Coach's who are basically OCs) I'd take over Kliff at the moment. The obvious ones are Andy Reid, Kyle Shanahan, McVay and KOC. (And yeah, I know 3 of those guys were here.) I would not take Ben Johnson. Detroit's offense seems to be fine without him and I have always thought he was somewhat overrated.

 

[Conn]

Some relevant back and forth Keim got into recently:















Kind of rare to see Keim gets into the weeds with people (or I’ve missed it before, I stumbled across this). He’s clearly rightly annoyed with the D and sees what they’re accomplishing on O as impressive given the circumstances, even if it’s not perfect

I was surprised at how heavily weighted towards “run” our pistol calls are. 83% is pretty crazy. Can kill teams off of that if we exploit it but it’s kinda insane it was only in the Bears game that it started to actually falter, given teams know what we’re doing in those situations. Now hit PA passes out to pistol and teams will get lit up

For the people talking about under center looks: 8 snaps, 8 runs

 

[SkinsNumberOne]

Some relevant back and forth Keim got into recently:















Kind of rare to see Keim gets into the weeds with people (or I’ve missed it before, I stumbled across this). He’s clearly rightly annoyed with the D and sees what they’re accomplishing on O as impressive given the circumstances, even if it’s not perfect

I was surprised at how heavily weighted towards “run” our pistol calls are. 83% is pretty crazy. Can kill teams off of that if we exploit it but it’s kinda insane it was only in the Bears game that it started to actually falter, given teams know what we’re doing in those situations. Now hit PA passes out to pistol and teams will get lit up

For the people talking about under center looks: 8 snaps, 8 runs

That’s good data, and to me at least some of the broad strokes say what I have been saying.

Regardless of success, our run game has a weird and disconcerting level of predictability to it. There are certain looks we give that tip off run, especially in certain situations. The best DCs in the league will use that info to their advantage and hurt our O badly.

Kliff and Jayden can still score points in those games. They are that good. With our D though, it won’t be good enough.

 

[Dlts20]

Maholmes has been the most average QB in the league the last couple of years with all of their receiver injuries but every time they get moderately healthy then he looks great again. We just need Terry back but that's looking less and less likely every week

 

[DWinzit]

Regardless of success, our run game has a weird and disconcerting level of predictability to it. There are certain looks we give that tip off run, especially in certain situations. The best DCs in the league will use that info to their advantage and hurt our O badly.

It's not just the best DCs, it's really all of them and opposing defenders that will use the predictability against us.

 

[Dlts20]

People talking about the pistol and the run game literally sounds exactly like the Falcons fans used to. I was on their board the week we played them and all the talk from them and the national media was the predictably of how much they run out of the pistol, etc. This was coming off of their 30-0 loss to Carolina. Everyone blamed the OC, Zach Robinson. I told them we ran the pistol with RG3 and dominated in the run game.

I say the same to our Commanders fans. The Falcons ran it right down our throat and right down the Bills throats without Robinson succumbing to pressure. We led the league in rushing coming into the Bears game and predictable or not, our ypc are crazy high in it.

As the old S Skins would say. You knew what was coming. You knew the counter trey was coming and you still couldn't stop it. We didn't care if you knew. We were still going to run it right down your throat. That is honestly so mentally defeating to a defense. Our run game is fine. Sometimes you just lose the battle..

The combination of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry seem completely unstoppable every time I watch them. Im always like, this is the most impossible to stop attack in history and the commentators 2nd that opinion. Then the next game they get completely shut down. That's just going to happen in the NFL. Chicago dominated the trenches like Greenbay did but those are abnormalities. For the most part our run game will dominate week in and week out and I expect this week to be the same

 

[Conn]

That’s good data, and to me at least some of the broad strokes say what I have been saying.

Regardless of success, our run game has a weird and disconcerting level of predictability to it. There are certain looks we give that tip off run, especially in certain situations. The best DCs in the league will use that info to their advantage and hurt our O badly.

Kliff and Jayden can still score points in those games. They are that good. With our D though, it won’t be good enough.

I think some coordinators set things up earlier in the season in order to go against their own established tendencies later on. Some guys spend weeks setting up future opponents with specific behavior in specific situations, in order to dictate how they’re prepared against and defended to set up special situations. But I don’t think this is that, it’s definitely extremely predictable

 

[CuredFromBatteredFanSyndrome]

Posting here as it seems the best fit.

The Chicago Bears Fanbase is quickly becoming a group of folks that I’ll cherish in their misery, as I would a division foe.

This group is unbelievable to the extent that I have to wonder if they really truly believe what they type on the Internet or it’s just all for show.

I’m not just talking about fans, but their local radio guys and the like. These folks cannot stop talking about Jayden Daniels. The level of cope is unreal. The audacity is even more staggering.

They literally watched Jayden throwing to the likes of Chris Moore, while our defense plays dead, and pretend that Jayden has it so much easier than Caleb. They know no bounds in their coping and trying to speak Caleb’s greatness into existence.

 

[Dlts20]

Posting here as it seems the best fit.

The Chicago Bears Fanbase is quickly becoming a group of folks that I’ll cherish in their misery, as I would a division foe.

This group is unbelievable to the extent that I have to wonder if they really truly believe what they type on the Internet or it’s just all for show.

I’m not just talking about fans, but their local radio guys and the like. These folks cannot stop talking about Jayden Daniels. The level of cope is unreal. The audacity is even more staggering.

They literally watched Jayden throwing to the likes of Chris Moore, while our defense plays dead, and pretend that Jayden has it so much easier than Caleb. They know no bounds in their coping and trying to speak Caleb’s greatness into existence.

Yea, their fans and media are the worst I've been around in a long time. As far as the easier comment go, it was just a little over a year ago where everyone was saying that Caleb is coming into the best situation that a number 1 pick ever has and Jayden is going to a horrible franchise and roster. Now because 5 took us to the championship game and Caleb flamed our, it's extremely convenient for them all to flip the narrative