2025 Washington Commanders- All Things Defense

[Conn]

I really think the Conerly pick was a hard clue into AP’s approach. I fully believe he takes in coach input as a high priority. Not saying I know when he gets it or doesn’t but I imagine he gets at least some and I think there is a high value there. I also think that may or may not be a good idea all of the time, and I think as he gets more years under his belt he may change some of his mix and strategy.

That Conerly pick, and AP showing us that paper, I thought it was some hard evidence of some of his weighting of variables in player selection.

Nailed it, I agree and should have read further before posting my version of this

 

[Conn]

I can’t speak to the efficacy of this stat but it looks bad for ol’ Quan

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

I actually have the opposite fear. We have some examples of picks being a favorite of this staffer or that, and late round picks are mainly guys who assistants stand on the table for (Commanders Caucus picks — not the same as Commander Tag). That seems fine, but:

I do sometimes worry that because he hasn’t run the whole show before or had final say ever before, that AP is being a little TOO collaborative with the coaching staff. You want collaboration, but you also want your guy known to have a studly eye for talent to be the one swinging the bat on high upside guys more often, if he feels the conviction. And maybe AP does, we don’t know. But if Whitt turns out to be a bad DC, what’s to say he knows what his D needs from a college prospect, and even more so, can actually identify it on their college film and then pound the table for that guy?

I’m sure it’s a healthy process and I’d certainly rather the GM work with his coaches to keep the building on the same page and avoid political games with players who nobody but the “talent guys” wanted, which we’ve heard stories of before. That’s a nightmare scenario.

But I do wonder if AP isn’t a little green and inexperienced in his position, and maybe leans on his coaching staff a little TOO much. Part of me wonders if the 2025 draft seeming more productive earlier on than the 2024 draft (which had way more capital, and obviously not counting the home run that was Jayden Daniels) is a result of AP learning some things last year and applying them this year. Who knows. But I think it’s reasonable to wonder where the appropriate line is between personnel/coaching staff in the building in regards to college prospect scouting and if we definitely have the exact correct balance there. Logic says we probably don’t, just because AP is learning to be the big shot caller on the job and we expect him to improve his processes and decision making over time, just like we would any stud prospect.

Or maybe it’s the opposite and AP is becoming MORE collaborative and it’s a good thing. Who knows. They didn’t advertise who the “Commander Tag” players were this year because I think they learned from last year that it created unrealistic expectations from fans and created a caste system within the draft class (from the outside) that really isn’t fair to anyone. So we don’t get that info anymore, which I think is smart even though it sucks losing the inside info.

I don't disagree with anything you said. I think my larger point, and what I was responding to, is Adam Peters is an empowered GM. He has been given the responsibility for the roster construction and generally for football operations. I don't think it's fair to put defensive player selection on Whitt, which was the post I was replying to.

However Peters comes to the decisions on who is going to be on the roster is kindof up to him, but at the end of the day he has the accountability, authority and responsibility for the roster.

Conversely, Whitt not being able to figure out how to play tighter coverage on 3rd and 6th is on Whitt, not Peters.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

I can’t speak to the efficacy of this stat but it looks bad for ol’ Quan

That right there is an SAT word you don't see on message boards very often. Kudos.

 

[Conn]

 

[Dah-Dee]

I can’t speak to the efficacy of this stat but it looks bad for ol’ Quan

Matches the eye test for me, seems like Martin is consistently out of position to make plays; and the presence of all-world S Hamilton on the other end of the rating spectrum gives the graph credibility.

Martin and Reaves are like kittens with a ball of yarn out there, and with Harris still out for a while we've got nobody herding the cats in our messy secondary. Looks to me like they really dropped the ball when Harris went down and they didn't give Justin Simmons his bag, he's the kind of general we need back there. Is this maybe another instance where Quinn's lame 'hindsight is 20/20' comment on Noah Brown would apply? Feels like it, and those seem to be adding up.

 

[Dah-Dee]

This also matches the eye test, I think everyone on the boards here agrees that Wagner has visibly lost a step. One of the problems with addressing that is, he's the leader of our defense, makes the calls out there. In addition, he's the only guy who regularly wraps up tackles; I shudder to think what our defensive rankings would look like if we didn't have Wagner actually bringing runners down and instead, for example, Magee was in that spot for 100% of snaps. It would be ugly with both Magee and Luvu whiffing on guys or trying their one-handed grab tackles all the time.

We're stupid thin at LB. Kaho and Medrano can't stay healthy, and even when they are it seems the team only sees them as special teamers, doesn't trust either for actual snaps on defense. Bellore is a career STer. Von Miller is listed as a LB but we know he only rushes the QB (same for Jacob Martin). That leaves Wagner. Luvu and Magee. That's it.

 

[skinsinparadise]

It sounds like you and Voice_of_Reason are potentially saying complementary things:
VOR: he is not being asked to do much so his numbers look better than they "should" - but he is not a starter
You: he wasn't taught well here. no one has truly improved here. seems like his snapcount is rising.

I can interpret, maybe, that:
1) He is being slowly brought up / coached up, and as he proves himself, given an opportunity to do more
2) It is a worthwhile investment if you see enough potential, and pretty much every player can benefit from coaching and investment if it is planned the right way; the fruits will be worthwhile IF the planning is done right (contract / timing / etc.)

If all of that is true, maybe he matures into something more resembling a starter, but that snapcount seems super low.

One thing that is sometimes underrated on CBs is how well they hold the edge. Very valuable in divisions with big rushing attacks, which the NFCE definitely does. This dude always was a pretty solid tackler, again sometimes underrated but yikes when you watch Quan you kind of appreciate it at that moment for sure!

We were just listening to two different reporters who cover the team, one (who I listened to) said he's really played well. The one he listened to said he played well with a disclaimer that they aren't playing him a ton and picking their spots how they use them.

I recall looking at his reps after that comment and it showed yeah he played the equivalent of one game rep wise in the span of 5 games. But looking at his reps now, they are clearly playing him more than they did early in the season -- and heck according to PFF metrics, he'd be by far the best CB on this team.

That's not me lamening St. Juste being gone. But to me its another log on the fire that Whitt's secondary scheme might not be that hot.

Quan another dude who has regressed. Sainristil a talented as heck college slot CB, has also had a bad season and regressed.

 

[SmiffySkins]

Maybe someone who understands defensive schemes better than I do can explain why we seem to have evolved from playing man to zonal coverage since the start of the season. Looking at the scouting reports for our CBs it seems that they are all better at press-man. Why have we shifted towards a zone coverage scheme when it is not playing to the apparent strengths of our secondary?

 

[skinsinparadise]

I'd add they spent resources to fix the secondary since he's been here. The Lattimore trade. Drafting Saintristil. Drafting Amos. Signing J. Jones.

We thought that dumping St. Juste and Forbes would turn the secondary around. Shawn Springs this off season thought Amos is a stud. Plenty thought Sainristill would emerge as one of the best slot CBs. Heck Quinn talked up Quan Martin as the breakout player of camp with pro bowl protential. And ex-pro bowl player Lattimore would be fine once he aborbed the scheme and could stay healthy.

Yet, you add it all together and the secondary is a train wreck. Arguably even worse that the St. Juste-Forbes and company version of it last year.

 

[skinsinparadise]

Maybe someone who understands defensive schemes better than I do can explain why we seem to have evolved from playing man to zonal coverage since the start of the season. Looking at the scouting reports for our CBs it seems that they are all better at press-man. Why have we shifted towards a zone coverage scheme when it is not playing to the apparent strengths of our secondary?

According to some film junkes -- Sainristil is beyond awful at man. And Lattimore isn't good at it either.

Amos in college was good at both.

 

[SkinsNumberOne]

We were just listening to two different reporters who cover the team, one (who I listened to) said he's really played well. The one he listened to said he played well with a disclaimer that they aren't playing him a ton and picking their spots how they use them.

I recall looking at his reps after that comment and it showed yeah he played the equivalent of one game rep wise in the span of 5 games. But looking at his reps now, they are clearly playing him more than they did early in the season -- and heck according to PFF metrics, he'd be by far the best CB on this team.

That's not me lamening St. Juste being gone. But to me its another log on the fire that Whitt's secondary scheme might not be that hot.

Quan another dude who has regressed. Sainristil a talented as heck college slot CB, has also had a bad season and regressed.

I think I pointed out the secondary coach earlier in this thread. A major concern.

The thing about organizational management is it shares qualities across different org types. It is why Myers is useful regardless of sport and calling him a “basketball guy” is a doofus comment (cough cough Ben Johnson).

Yes the secondary coach needs to be analyzed by his bosses - I think the data is there to suggest an issue. It is present in small details and large. Things like not correcting numerous PI issues last year (it went beyond st juste; he was hit harder as the #1 but others were hit just as hard by percentage I think), to unit communication, tackling as a unit (they seem to be our worst)- really, the list goes on. The most damning point will be if guys go to other teams and do better. Early returns there don’t look good.

 

[Dah-Dee]

I think I pointed out the secondary coach earlier in this thread. A major concern.

The thing about organizational management is it shares qualities across different org types. It is why Myers is useful regardless of sport and calling him a “basketball guy” is a doofus comment (cough cough Ben Johnson).

Yes the secondary coach needs to be analyzed by his bosses - I think the data is there to suggest an issue. It is present in small details and large. Things like not correcting numerous PI issues last year (it went beyond st juste; he was hit harder as the #1 but others were hit just as hard by percentage I think), to unit communication, tackling as a unit (they seem to be our worst)- really, the list goes on. The most damning point will be if guys go to other teams and do better. Early returns there don’t look good.

Agree 100% - whatever Donatell, Gay, and SImmons are teaching, it's not working.

 

[SmiffySkins]

According to some film junkes -- Sainristil is beyond awful at man. And Lattimore isn't good at it either.

Amos in college was good at both.

Lattimore was signed to play man. I’m sure of that

 

[skinsinparadise]

Lattimore was signed to play man. I’m sure of that

Yeah we all know so what. Lattimore hasn't been what we'd thought he'd be clearly.

From what I've heard some film junkies say they've gone more zone in the last two games and Lattimore has played better.

So I decided to look up the PFF metrics just now.

Lattimore ranked to them, 120th in man, 55.1 grade, 78.5 completion rating against him. Yuck. Sainristil really bad, too.

In zone, ranked 77th, with 62.3 completion rating against him. Neither stellar but zone has been better.

It's pretty well documented that this team has struggled in man coverage.

Among others the dude who played football, Sutter, that Sheehan has on and has rewatched all the games with All 22 has said Lattimore and Sainristill has been awful playing man. atrocious level bad. This is the first time I've looked up that count on PFF and it backs him up.

 

[Conn]

Shut down man coverage is a young man’s game, even without the constant injuries Lattimore has had. They’re trying to salvage him while they must and it’s at least better than it was before. I think we all know he didn’t earn an extension and won’t be here after this season

 

[SmiffySkins]

Shut down man coverage is a young man’s game, even without the constant injuries Lattimore has had. They’re trying to salvage him while they must and it’s at least better than it was before. I think we all know he didn’t earn an extension and won’t be here after this season

Ok this makes sense to me. I think I did also hear that the transition from man towards zone was also a result of the pass rush not getting home? I mean if the pass rush is not getting home then it’s going to be an issue for the secondary regardless of scheme but perhaps it’s more an issue for man coverage and this is the reason for the change. I just recall that play on Monday when Lattimore went to pass on Moore in zone and no one went with him. Looked terrible

 

[Simeon]

Supposed upgrade for personnel on front 7 and secondary, yet

Receivers running wide open on multiple plays per game

Multiple breakout running plays per game against quality teams

Players who sucked epically here last year playing well for others this year

Team wide communication issues

Poor tackling

For me at least the debate is over. The problem is coaching. It is still possible Whitt learns from his mistakes but I just don’t think he’s doing that. He may have reached his Peter Principle with this promotion to DC. Quinn needs to take over until Whitt learns his job or gets fired next year. Problem is I don’t think Quinn has it in him to fire a close friend. That was one of his problems in Atlanta.

 

[SkinsFTW]

And lookie lookie, the Eagles Rookie way over there in the top Right.

What's also scary is it says that the minimum is 100 snaps in coverage.

Bobby Wagner probably shouldn't be in coverage 100+ times in 6 games. Is that real? 16+ coverage snaps a game?

 

[Conn]

And lookie lookie, the Eagles Rookie way over there in the top Right.

What's also scary is it says that the minimum is 100 snaps in coverage.

Bobby Wagner probably shouldn't be in coverage 100+ times in 6 games. Is that real? 16+ coverage snaps a game?

Certainly feels real, watching him get burnt through his zone multiple times per game