2024 - Way too early draft thread

[tomwvr]

That is a no brainer

 

[Boone]

I'll play contrarian. Yes - that would be a good haul for moving down 1 spot. But - it's not a no-brainer. If you love the QB available at #2, but not the guys available at #3 - you pass on almost any offer you receive 100% of the time.

We have to get our QB in this draft. If we miss, it sets us back 3 years at a minimum, probably more than that.

It is hard enough to hit on a franchise QB in the draft when you get to pick the guy you love. Hitting on one with 'the next best QB' is not the scenario you want to put yourself in.

So while I'm open to trading down for a really good offer, only if it allows you to still get the guy you wanted all along.

 

[burgold]

Therein lies the rub. Do we LOVE any of the QBs. Is it only one? Is it two or three? If you more than like like a QB and if you know it's more than a crush, then don't date around. Go and buy the ring. On the other hand, flirting with all the pretty QBs out there right now is harmless and probably a good idea. On draft day though, if you love one don't trade. Run to the altar.

 

[burgold]

Then, hypnotize all thirty-one other GMs into forgetting that Joe Alt exists and grab him with your second rounder.

 

[Primus Porcus]

Then, hypnotize all thirty-one other GMs into forgetting that Joe Alt exists and grab him with your second rounder.

 

[Om]

Here's the good news ...

Peters, Quinn and company will decide whether they love one or more of the guys available at #2 based on FAR more and MUCH deeper data than us and the analysts who write about these guys. We don't need to list all those things here, right? Yeah, they could still get it wrong--we know that based on history. But it won't be for lack gathering and analyzing all available intel.

Sitting here today I'm comfortable with the notion they'll make the most informed decision possible.

 

[Primus Porcus]

Here's the good news ...

Peters, Quinn and company will decide whether they love one or more of the guys available at #2 based on FAR more and MUCH deeper data than us and the analysts who write about these guys. We don't need to list all those things here, right? Yeah, they could still get it wrong--we know that based on history. But it won't be for lack gathering and analyzing all available intel.

Sitting here today I'm comfortable with the notion they'll make the most informed decision possible.

this is why i'm not freaking out one way or another. In years past there have been guys where i'm like "I REALLY DONT WANT XX"

This year.. ill be pretty good with whoever it ends up being as they haven't given me a reason to doubt yet. It could blow up in our faces, but no matter what i'll be riding with whoever we go with and let it all play out.

 

[tomwvr]

If I am sitting at two and have evaluated every thing for these 3 qbs and I have determined that I really like one much more than the others than I take him at 2. If on the other hand if I see them all as pretty much the same quality each with different things that I like and I can move back 1-2 spots and still get one of them I make that trade or trades every day of the week.
So unless they really love a qb and think they are far superior to the others a drop back of 1-2 spots and getting another 1st round pick out of it would be worth it.

 

[Chris]

Taking the chance to trade out of #2 with the hope/plan to trade back up to a top pick for a QB reminds me of 5 kids playing musical chairs with only 3-4 chairs.

A better chance than russian roulette but not by much. Don’t get cute.

 

[Kel Varnsen]

I'll play contrarian. Yes - that would be a good haul for moving down 1 spot. But - it's not a no-brainer. If you love the QB available at #2, but not the guys available at #3 - you pass on almost any offer you receive 100% of the time.

We have to get our QB in this draft. If we miss, it sets us back 3 years at a minimum, probably more than that.

It is hard enough to hit on a franchise QB in the draft when you get to pick the guy you love. Hitting on one with 'the next best QB' is not the scenario you want to put yourself in.

So while I'm open to trading down for a really good offer, only if it allows you to still get the guy you wanted all along.

You are correct. The team has to evaluate if the guy they want will be there and be comfortable with the options that are there if they trade down. We don’t know who these guys like, and like others have said, I’m good with that. If they want one of the top QBs, they have to take him at 2. They can’t pass on a QB without it being a risk. It’s just crazy from where we sit, not really knowing who they want, that type of value exists for the #2 pick and knowing you could still get your guy at 3. There is always value for trading down, but to trade down and still (hypothetically) get your guy is amazing. Plus getting picks next year from a team that will almost certainly be bad again.

Also, even though I posted that simulator trade offer, I have this discussion with my dad every draft for the past umpteen years. Every year he says to trade down and get more draft picks. Well, at some point you have to take the talented players to make your team better. You can’t pass on great players to get a handful of mediocre guys.

 

[tomwvr]

Taking the chance to trade out of #2 with the hope/plan to trade back up to a top pick for a QB reminds me of 5 kids playing musical chairs with only 3-4 chairs.

A better chance than russian roulette but not by much. Don’t get cute.

Not if there are 4 chairs and you dont care which of the 4 you get.

 

[Boone]

Not if there are 4 chairs and you dont care which of the 4 you get.

If there is an NFL GM who has a choice of 4 and 'doesn't care' - he should be fired.

Historically, one of those 4 will turn out to be a very good QB. It's a huge decision.

 

[tomwvr]

I agree but lets say the team knows that Williams is the best of the 4 but it cost too much to get him and then the other 3 are all equal - in that they all have an upside and some issues. But they feel that any of those can make it in the NFL ( IE they like them but don't love them) and they understand that, and lets say New England loves one of them and offers us a haul to move back one spot.Why not take it, knowing that will still get one of the 3 we are looking at. Now if they LOVE one of the 3 after Williams then no you don't move

 

[Boone]

I agree with you that they should consider all possibilities. I just think that it's unlikely when push comes to shove that they favor any 2 of these QBs *equally*. At some level, there are going to be key differences, and it's those differences that could separate a failed pick from an incredibly successful one.

So I wouldn't say never to a trade down opportunity (and you're right that someone offering a 'haul' has to be entertained) but my default would be 'you have to draft the QB you believe has the best chance to be the long-term guy, almost excluding any other consideration. Almost...

 

[Boone]

I like you Tom. You make good arguments, and you don't mind folks disagreeing with you. That's cool - not everyone can do that on the interwebz. Glad you are here

 

[tomwvr]

This is football we are talking about a game. No reason to ever take anything personal or get upset. And hell if you listen to everyone you can learn things. Its a long forgotten skill....

 

[tomwvr]

And I wish I hadn't lost track of this site when I first signed up - but my father in law died about then and I lost track of a lot of stuff. Glad I heard Al Galdi talking about it and reminded me ...

 

[Boone]

This is football we are talking about a game. No reason to ever take anything personal or get upset. And hell if you listen to everyone you can learn things. Its a long forgotten skill....

100% - still kudos to you for always embracing diverse opinions. Not everyone can do it! Appreciate you.

 

[Bulldog]

In looking at the Williams-Daniels-Maye trio of top prospects at quarterback I think some of us are unnecessarily freaking out over ANY perceived weaknesses. I know I was guilty of that in focusing almost solely at first on Daniels slight frame. Others did it with Maye's lack of TD productivity without considering his offensive unit mates graded out at BELOW replacement grade by PFF.

To me now as I look back to past drafts these three quarterbacks would be solid top 3 picks that in reality there would have been few substantive questions about.

Unless there is a generational quarterback available like John Elway or Andrew Luck, most passers come into the league and have some things to work on.

Teams like the Broncos or Vikings are desperate to move up because they whiffed on their past decisions at quarterback.

Taking a $86M cap hit for Russell Wilson is unprecedented as far as I can recall.

For the Vikings, they should have been drafting a young passer and developing him behind Kirk Cousins for the past couple of years as he went from 34 to 36.

Washington is set at #2 and there is no real sense of desperation. No need to trade. Lots of draft picks to fill in other spots on the roster.

For the first time in 25-30 years other teams are jealous of the position we are in.

 

[Chris]

Yep, stick and pick. Don’t overthink it. Don’t try to get cute.