2024 - Way too early draft thread

[burgold]

I'm not sure Quinn isn't telling the truth.

There was a ridiculous amount of work to do to get to this point and I just don't see that there has been a lot of time to look at QBs yet.

I think he's fibbing. They more or less gave the same "Aw shucks" schtick right before free agency. I think they have a plan.

 

[Primus Porcus]

I have no doubt in my mind that he's 'fibbing' about the idea that they haven't invested any real time into the prospects.. They likely started looking at film, if no other reason, than to determine that they're comfortable moving on from Howell. These guys know these prospects.

That said, to your point Neo, and even you're Burgold.... There's likely a plan, but I don't think decisions have been made. Even if the big board is written in pencil, it's nowhere near sharpie... yet.

 

[burgold]

Oh I think it's written in sharpie, but to your point, I doubt it's engraved in stone. If they are blown away by a trade offer or a player during workouts indelible ink can't be erased, but the paper it's on can be recycled.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

Something to keep in mind: I’m positive both Peters and Newmark have been keeping their eye on college prospects throughout the season. It’s part of just the routine of front office personnel during the season. They weren’t here but they were employed in NFL front offices.

Quinn, I believe he hasn’t had a chance to fully dive into the draft. He was coaching defense last year, got this job, had a quick turn on current roster evaluation and then FA, and unlike Peters and Newmark, would not have been eyeing college prospects through the season.

I am positive Peters, Newmark and the FO have been all looking at all the prospects throughout the season. Quinn and Kliff probably haven't been. I'm sure they are doing the a lot of work at the moment to figure out what they want to do.

 

[Neophyte]

I have no doubt in my mind that he's 'fibbing' about the idea that they haven't invested any real time into the prospects.. They likely started looking at film, if no other reason, than to determine that they're comfortable moving on from Howell. These guys know these prospects.

That said, to your point Neo, and even you're Burgold.... There's likely a plan, but I don't think decisions have been made. Even if the big board is written in pencil, it's nowhere near sharpie... yet.

And that's kind of what I meant. They had to know they were comfortable with a couple of the options they knew they would have available before they sent Howell to Seattle. However, these guys are all pros who live, eat, sleep, and breathe football. The odds are that they all knew enough about these prospects to have an opinion. Chances are most of them needed more time to evaluate Howell than this year's QB draft class.

Other than that, I'm not so sure.

The calendar alone dictates the order of operations if you are a smart organization and I think we might now have one of the smartest organizations out there.

First, evaluate your own talent. Know who to keep, who to cut, and who to resign. Know if you have anyone on the roster who might be valuable that you don't want.

Next, figure out the plan for Free Agency. This means have a solid overall picture of the talent available in that year's draft but your scouting department has been doing that for you all year. At the point this team is at, Free Agency should be about raising the floor on the roster's overall talent. Then you go get your guys.

Remember, at this point, schools aren't even having Pro Days. Yes, the Combine has happened but that is an event where you learn who you don't want more than who you do want.

After you have your Free Agent class buttoned up you can start to really look at the draft class. Up to this point, you have let your college scouting department handle it. At this point, the board is probably all the work of the scouting department because Peters has been focused on other things.

Honestly, until the Free Agency rush is over, the QB coach is the only guy on the staff I want spending much time with QB film because he is the guy who has the time for it.

 

[SkinsNumberOne]

Bram has been saying that's what he think they are going to do for weeks. Bram is the radio voice of the team. Now, he's also said he hasn't heard a peep from the team, so it's just conjecture. He's also dead wrong on a lot of his guesses. So take that for what it's worth.

Bram also thinks they're going to trade and pay big money for a CB. I don't.

Keim has said he thinks it's an option to trade back into the 1st for a tackle.

The thing to note, literally every beat guy has said out loud none of their sources either know or they're not talking. So everything is conjecture.

I'm putting 2+2 together: They're going to draft a QB + the only LT they have on the roster is Lucas = they are going to draft a starting LT. The answer I don't know, do they have a guy targeted at 36 they think can start, or do they have to move up to get somebody.

Depending on how you view the draft and your ability to react (and probably also your relationships with certain teams/management), you can make plans that are extremely dynamic too. Like, if this scenario plays out and guys start disappearing, then at the last minutes make the call to trade up. Otherwise, keep your assets and get your guy anyway. That was always lacking in the past with this team; partly due to the ownership and the general attitude, they weren't good at forming relationships that have tons of value in these situations.

 

[Solitary Man]

 

[Chris]

What twitter does best. 🤣

 

[Solitary Man]

Aside from the two non spectacular throws I did find it odd with the music going at his pro day.

It did not look like the most professionally run showcasing of a qb ready to enter the draft.

 

[Chris]

Aside from the two non spectacular throws I did find it odd with the music going at his pro day.

It did not look like the most professionally run showcasing of a qb ready to enter the draft.

I agree. Seemed more spring break than job interview.

 

[burgold]

Is this photo of Daniel’s elbow real?

 

[Chris]

While Daniels’ elbow looks pretty nasty, fans and teams shouldn’t be worried about drafting him.

According to sports doctor Jesse Morse, Daniels is suffering from bursitis of his right throwing elbow, which is a mild condition.

“Daniels appears to be dealing with operation bursitis of his right throwing elbow. This is an inflammation of the bursa, which is a sac that is usually empty and is there to protect the bone underneath. We have them in several joints including the elbow and the knee.

‘Banging’ your elbow against a hard surface often results in inflammation of the bursa, causing the body to fill it with fluid. This is a protective mechanism to prevent fracturing the bone underneath.

These are VERY common, and more annoying than concerning. As long as they are not infected.”


Another sports doctor confirmed the bursitis diagnosis.


SportsInjuryMD/X

“A lot of talk about Jayden Daniels elbow here. Just a simple case of olecranon bursitis. Looks like it first happened in 10/2022 and even when drained they can come back. More of a cosmetic thing as long as it’s not infected. Won’t effect him at all #LSU #NFLDraft”

 

[Bulldog]

The PFF report on the top quarterbacks in 2023 and the support they received as measured by unit WAR is an interesting development.

As I posted in the other thread the quarterbacks were rated:

Nix - 3.6
McCarthy - 2.6
Daniels - 2.4
Maye - -0.23

So, Nix and McCarthy of the top prospects received the most support - OL, WR, RB - to help them sustain the offense in WAR.

Daniels was third and was close to McCarthy.

Maye, though, by the numbers was surrounded by the poorest overall talent of any of the top quarterbacks. OL, WR, RB.

The -0.23 number indicates his offensive mates were graded out to be slightly below replacement level.

I am wondering if Maye is in a similar spot as a a Phil Simms or Josh Allen that suffers in some evaluations because he was playing on a team with limited talent around him, even vis a vis the other teams in a so-so conference.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

Maye, though, by the numbers was surrounded by the poorest overall talent of any of the top quarterbacks. OL, WR, RB.

The UNC OL is horrid. Both in terms of talent level and "know what to do." There was a play in the UVA game where, for reasons which would only be clear to the RT, he blocked down to triple team a DT and turned the DE completely free. And that was exactly where Maye was going with the ball, so Maye set up, saw only the DE in front of him, and had to evade immediately. I honestly can't remember what he did, I think he side-stepped and ran up the middle (where the RT was actually blocking) for a few yards.

But it should have been an easy completion.

What the heck the RT was doing, I have no idea.

When I went play-by-play through the UVA game, the number of times I wrote "(OL player) lost immediately) was astounding. And UVA's DL isn't exactly Alabama's.

He also went through a stretch in the second quarter where he put balls on receiver's hands something like 5 straight times which resulted in outright drops.

If Maye had any degree of protection, he would have had significantly better statistics. I don' know if drops were a problem in all the games, but damn, in the UVA game, they were a HUGE problem. Big drops, too.

He's not perfect. He missed 2 deep balls on consecutive plays (1st and 2nd down) which should have been TDs. Just overthrew the receiver.

The 3rd and 4th down plays were drops. Ooops.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

His ball floats. Especially to the outside. You can see it in that clip. That's going to be a problem in the NFL.

My 2 biggest concerns with Daniels:
1. He HAS to be presented as a run threat. He's 200lbs. Those 2 things = missing time.
2. He doesn't have the arm to drive the ball to the outside.

Maye and McCarthy are bigger and have significantly better arms.

That's predominantly why I think it's going to be Maye, with an outside chance it's McCarthy.

There is a world where Daniels is the QB which falls. If we take Maye, I think there's a HIGH likelihood the Patriots take McCarthy. Arizona either auctions the pick for Daniels, or just stays put and drafts Harrison Jr. which is what I would expect them to do.

The Chargers are not taking a QB at 5. Do they move down for somebody to move up to get Daniels? The 3 most likely teams to want to move up would be the Vikings, Raiders and Broncos. Well, the Chargers are not trading with the Raiders or Broncos. So, do the Vikings move up? The Chargers could just stay put and draft the best tackle on the board.

So all of a sudden, Daniels is sitting there at 6 for the Giants. I personally think this is where he goes. Either to the Giants or somebody else trading up. However, if he doesn't, I think all the teams would just sit and wait.

The team to really watch is the Saints. He's an LSU guy. He's massively popular. Do they make a surprising move up? I don't know.

Or ... we take him at 2 or the Patriots take him at 3. That's probably the more realistic scenario. But I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility he falls to 6. If he falls further than that, then what that tells us is NFL teams question his arm and durability.

 

[Bulldog]

Size to me is an important issue. Going back to the Gibbs days when there was a choice between a WR like Art Monk who ran a 4.52 40 and a guy that was 5'11 and 185 that ran a 4.5, Washington took the 6'3 and 210 receiver. Similarly, the team had the biggest offensive line in the NFL in the mid-1980's and Joe Bugel talked that strategy noting 'my experience tells me when bigger skilled players go up against smaller skilled players the former usually wins'.

And part of winning in my mind is being able to stay on the field and hold up, not just for the rookie season but for a 12 year career.

If Jayden Daniels grades out as a 9 on an internal ranking score and Drake Maye is a 7.5, then I take Daniels.

But if they are about even or if its close and you factor in the lack of support at the UNC program, then I take Maye.

If it takes him a year to acclimate to the NFL so be it. After 35 years of waiting for a quarterback, I can certainly be patient with a 21 year old player on a team that is in the midst of a complete roster rebuild.

I expect if we take Daniels that he is also going to require patience. Some of the ESPN folks were IMO getting over their skis by saying that Daniels more so than Williams or Maye was going to be a Day 1 starter and hit the ground running. Wishful thinking on some folks part.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

The "day 1 starter at a higher level" folk on Daniels are projecting his team is going to present him as a run threat significantly, like Lamar and Hurts, so he can generate offense by himself immediately.

This is a factually CORRECT statement.

I am sure any OC who wants to do that can do it, they can scheme it up to limit Daniel's passing attempts, present him as a runner, and have a run-first offense where the QB is a significant part of the run game.

Here's the problem: He's 200-210lbs. Lamar is between 215 and 225. Hurts is between 220-230. And they both get hurt. Lamar has missed parts of 2 seasons. Hurts played this entire last season with a bum knee.

I could be DEAD freaking wrong. I just don't see them going with a QB they are going to have to expose that much to injury. Lamar and Hurts both had about 9.5 carries per game last year. That's between 160 and 170 carries. That's a lot of opportunity for bad things to happen.

I know there is significant momentum in the media for Daniels. I'm very interested to see if that's real or make believe.

 

[Boone]

I think it's pretty clear, the media doesn't know jack shit when it comes to what Washington will do. And the smart ones, like Keim and Galdi, will admit that's the case.

 

[Bulldog]

It's funny, ten years ago when you draft a quarterback who is featured in the run game you get crushed. Now, it's just the opposite. If you are even looking at a quarterback who is a pocket passer or a mix passer/scramble guy the media is down your throat for being outdated.

You can win with a mix of quarterbacks. Media types seems to forget that Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford both won Super Bowls this decade and were almost statues in the pocket compared to ANY of the passers available in 2024.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

On JP's pod, he had a 1:1 with Dan Quinn, and asked Quinn (sarcastically because he knew he wasn't going to answer) "Who do you like at #2"

Quinn replied, "I'll tell you after you tell me."

JP: "Jayden."

Quinn: "I'm not going to tell you."

I found that interaction kindof amusing.

But it leads to this point: A large percentage of the media in this area have fallen in love with Jayden Daniels. Sheehan, JP, Mitch, Bram, Callow, probably some others. I refuse to listen to the drek on sports talk radio, so I hear things second hand or through podcasts I do like.

Galdi is the holdout for Maye.

Bram is convinced the pick is Daniels. So is JP. He said he would put 85-90 chips on it. (He did then say he wasn't reporting it, he just feels that's what they are going to do.)

All the coverage to me seems like confirmation bias. They've gone all in on Daniels, and everything which comes out, they're finding a way to spin it to their point of view.

And they might be right. I don't personally think they are. But they might be. And if so, I'm fine with that.

But what I'm frustrated about is the immediate backlash if they pick Maye because they've all convinced themselves the pick should be Daniels. And the story won't be Maye, but the story will be "they passed on Daniels for Maye. " And lord help us if they pick McCarthy. Which again, I don't think they are going to do. But the way I evaluate the QBs, I think they're going to pick between Maye and McCarthy. I don't think Daniels fits what they want.

But, I'm wrong more than right. So who knows. I'm just super frustrated by our media.