2024 - Way too early draft thread

For teams in different conferences, the next tie breaker is head to head results. If the season was over right now NE would have the 3rd pick.
 
Yep, and San Francisco and Dallas are only going to dilute the Commanders strength of schedule with victories over us the next two weeks :devilish:

It appears if we want Drake Maye we are going to have to make a trade with the Bears or Arizona.

In any case we KNOW the Patriots will be taking a quarterback.
 
I’m still banking on NE beating the Jets for Billy B. in his (likely) Patriots swan song. 🤞
 
Thing about the Pats is, you can never predict what Belichick does in an NFL draft. Every expert out there could predict he goes QB with their first pick and he either doesn't do that, or he picks a QB no one had ranked in the top 3.

Belichick - he does Belichick things.

Of course, not if he's not in New England :)
 
This team has gotten Wizards syndrome - bad, but up until now not bad ENOUGH to get a generational player to turn the fortunes around.

Winning that game against Miami in 2019 cost us the chance to draft Joe Burrow.

Winning any of these two remaining games is really going to cost the new ownership in terms of moving forward if the thought is upgrading at quarterback.

Luckily this is the hardest ending schedule I have seen in a while with 11-4 and 11-5 teams left to play.
 
There are other degrees of this that need to be accounted for.

New England losing to Buffalo count's double against them, which would offset the difference they made up with Dallas winning, since they play them twice, where we only played them once. Additionally, the same can be said if New England loses too the Jets.. So that means them losing the next 2 would count toward 4 of their opponents, where us losing to San Fran, and Dallas would only count toward 3 of ours, so there's a small advantage there.

Our divisions are alarmingly similar where there are 2 teams vying for playoff spots, a middle of the pack team, and then us fighting for draft position.
 
It's amazing that Washington is set to go 0-6 in the division in 2023.

Our division record going back years has been dreadful, especially at home.

If you can't beat the no-account Giants you aren't going anywhere in this league.
 
Bulldog said:
This team has gotten Wizards syndrome - bad, but up until now not bad ENOUGH to get a generational player to turn the fortunes around.

Winning that game against Miami in 2019 cost us the chance to draft Joe Burrow.

Winning any of these two remaining games is really going to cost the new ownership in terms of moving forward if the thought is upgrading at quarterback.

Luckily this is the hardest ending schedule I have seen in a while with 11-4 and 11-5 teams left to play.
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That's not totally true.

2020 - no. 2 overall - Chase Young
2015 - no. 5 overall - Brandon Scherff
2014 - no first round pick (went 3-13 in 2013)
2012 - no. 6 overall - traded up to no. 2 for RGIII
2010 - no. 4 overall - Trent Williams


5 times in 13 years we've had (or should have had) a top 6 pick in the draft, and only once did we take a QB. That's not getting enough pitches, it's swinging at balls.

I still am not convinced that you HAVE to pick top 6 to get your QB of the future. In fact, I'm pretty sure I heard a stat the other day that the only top 5 QB to appear in the Super Bowl with his drafting team since 2000 were Matt Ryan, Joe Burrow, and Peyton Manning.

Proper talent evaluators are the biggest issue. I'm not going to ever believe that you can 'depend' on picking a late round QB and it be the route, any more than i'm going to argue that you can model your team after the 2000 Ravens and just go at it with Trent Dilfer every year because it happened ONE TIME. What I will say is that there is a level of proper talent evaluation, as well as development has been seriously lacking. Not only have we not brought in the talent consistently enough, we haven't properly developed and managed it, if it was in the building.

Look at Detroit. On draft day, a ton of people (myself included) were simply lost about them taking Gibbs when they did. Now I'm not saying by any stretch that he is the only reason they are where they are, but they just locked up their first division title in 3 decades. They have 11 wins. Want to know the last time we had 11 wins or more? 1991.

They did not have a top 5 pick, nor did they even draft a QB. They're doing it with Jared freaking Goff. It's not about finding 'the best guy' and more about finding 'the right guy.' The right guy for them, may not be the right guy for 27 other teams in the league. The right guy for us, may not need to be a top 5 pick either.... Maybe it is, maybe it isnt, but I don't think there is a 100% 'have to do' way to win in the league, and in fact, more often than not, top 5 picks are NOT the ones playing into January.
 
This team finished 7-9, 7-10, 8-8 under Ron and will likely be 4-13 in Year 4.

Over that time though few if any impact players have been added that form a core this team can build with in the future.

Part of that is the front office obviously, the other part is a coach that historically delivers mediocre results. That keeps you out of the sweepstakes for top talent taken at the top of the draft in April.

Yes, there are GMs that make hay with the #25 or #27 pick in Round 1 consistently - see New England from 2001 to 2018 here.

But MOST NFL teams pick up the Andrew Luck, Joe Burrow, etc. by being a bad team and rebooting with the #1 or #2 overall pick(s) in the RIGHT YEARS.

Teams do in fact target their rebuilds. Irsay targeted Manning in 1998 and did it again in 2012 with Andrew Luck.

Cincinnati was all but trying to lose games in 2019 to get that top pick.

Yes, Washington finished poorly in 2019 and got the #2 pick. On the surface, based solely on the numbers from college, Chase Young looked like a solid pick. But I don't watch much college football outside of the playoffs, so I didn't know he was a self-absorbed prima donna that was going to be hard to coach. The front office spending 12 months scouting these players should have discovered this aspect of his personality as part of the eval. Do we really want him here?

And since the team didn't have an established quarterback in 2020 you HAD to at least consider the selection of a Tua or Justin Herbert or moving down a couple of picks and still taking one of the quarterbacks.

But Ron was tunnel-visioned into that #2 pick from the beginning as he all but admitted.

He was building a defense first.

Great thought process for the NFL of the 1980's and 1990's before all of the rules changes and free agency that created a parity among the teams where the play of ONE player at quarterback could make or break your franchise.

In subsequent years Washington ended up picking in the teens and low twenties, not high enough for a club with this relatively average level of talent to make a game changing move or two.

The most ironic circumstance? The Dallas Cowboys have been a better team than Washington in recent years and had ONE stumble season when Dak Prescott was injured and missed most of the season.

That was the ONE year Dallas had a top 10-15 pick in a number of years and they land Micah Parsons :p

Meanwhile, where was Washington? Again finishing out of the playoffs but above Dallas for the first time in years. Rivera is sitting there at #19 and looking for a linebacker with a couple off the board, over-reaches for Jamin Davis and we end up with an average NFL player.
 
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Bulldog said:
Washington has drafted quarterbacks in Round 1 FOUR times since 2003 and all four turned out to be whiffs.
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This makes my point. 20 years, we've taken a crack at a top 5 QB 4 times and missed each. It's not the pick number, it's the talent evaluator. We know for a fact that twice, Snyder has stepped in and dictated the first round QB pick in RG3 and Haskins. How much different would things have been had we taken Sweat at 15 like Kyle Smith wanted, and retained our second round pick in 2019 (46th overall), as well as our second round pick in 2020 (34th overall). That essentially means we spent 15, 46, and 34(2020), and got Montez Sweat.

For reference, A.J. Brown went 51st overall to the Titans in 2019....

If you really want to feel bad, look at some of the names taken in the 2nd round of 2020.

Again, none of these changes would have effected the QB positions specifically, but the roster talent would be vastly different adding A.J. Brown and Deandre Swift / Jonathan Taylor to this roster... and those are just the playmakers.
 
I agree we need a new front office, but we also need good strategy from ownership and the head coach.

We need to make a commitment to building a championship team, including making strategic moves during the season and in the draft to accumulate picks and talent.

Hopefully, those picks for Sweat and Young will pay off for the next regime.

Too many times we see listless play out of this team and then all of a sudden there is a stated urgency to 'do what we can to win' a particular game or two at the end of a lost season, etc.

It needs to be not a slogan but a way of doing everyday business like it is in San Francisco or KC.
 
The Arizona win over Philly today potentially brings the #2 pick into play.
 
If we lose next week and New England beats the Jets, we get the 2 spot.
 
Up to the minute update-

IMG_2968.jpeg
 
So - if we lose the finale we are guaranteed no worse than #3? Or can Arizona still jump us?
 
I just looked and it shows the opposite, Washington 2 and New England 3. I think the games ending are changing the strength of schedule, so we will probably have to see how it shakes out after this weeks games. Definitely rooting hard for the Pats to beat the Jets next week.
 
We are currently in the #2 slot per Tankathon.
 
Kel Varnsen said:
I just looked and it shows the opposite, Washington 2 and New England 3. I think the games ending are changing the strength of schedule, so we will probably have to see how it shakes out after this weeks games. Definitely rooting hard for the Pats to beat the Jets next week.
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Up to the minute means up to the minute. 🤣
 
The Giants game hadn't finished. Now it has, dropping our SOS to .519. In addition, the Saints game ended lifting NE, and ARI's SOS
 
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