2024 - Way too early draft thread

Derek, we have been under the impression that we have a pretty good receiving core currently with Terry, Jahan, and Curtis. We thought they would cook with EB in town. It hasn't quite materialized and I think it all comes back to the deficiencies up front to a large extent. Teams do win championships far more often than people think being really strong along the OL and having solid, yet not superstar status players at the skill positions. It's backwards design doing it in reverse order and expecting consistent winning results. The way I see it, the best, most consistent teams year over year have been able to solidify their trenches and add the high end skill along the way. But they never waver in managing their priorities.

All in all, i think the question in regards to Harrison will largely come down to where we go find out new GM. If we access the San Fran or Baltimore trees for instance, I am not sure WR takes priority.

Personally, I don't think I would be able to stomach a sexy draft this year. Get back to the Washington Redskins classic brand of football. Get back to basics when it comes to team building.
 
I've always been in the camp of you draft the best player available at a position of need. So for example, you don't draft Bijan Robinson in this last draft if he makes it to you since you don't need an RB. He didn't make it there so they didn't have to make that decision, but you get the point. But you also can't pass on a game changing talent because you need to draft a certain position. I've never been in an NFL draft room, but I would hope the draft board would take these things into account. If you have two players you really like and really need, then you take the one that fits the immediate need. Or you take the one where there is less depth later in the draft that can fill your need. So I expect there is a lot of factors that goes into it. I think the unsuccessful teams are the ones who will draft a need because they have a need. And they will take the 5th OL while passing on the top or 2nd best DB for example because that's what they need.

What frustrated me about this current drafting process, and it was the same when drunk Scot was in charge, they always seemed to draft guys they thought would make them look like a genius instead of having an overall plan of attack in the draft. If they really liked a guy, they would decide to draft him before anyone else could. Sometimes it's worked out, like with Jahan Dotson. Other times it hasn't worked out like with Josh Doctson. But the overall draft and the ability to build a team through the draft has been severely lacking. I just feel like they should have filled more holes through the draft over 4 years. By focusing so many picks on one side of the ball, they have made picks to the determent of other positions, such as the OL. Missing on players doesn't help, but it's going to happen. That's even more reason why you need balance in drafting so that you can build depth for when you miss on a guy.

As for Harrison specifically, if you believe he will be a talent on the level of his father, then you have to consider drafting him if he's available. I know it's unfair comparison because of his last name, but if you can get a HOF receiver, you don't want to pass on that. But by the same token, if you see a HOF tackle or guard or any other position of need, you have to prioritize that. If they see Harrison Jr as that guy, then they should take him. Then you cut/trade Samuel. I can't tell what his contract status is for next year, but it looks like there may be an out of some sort. You also probably don't re-sign Dotson in 2025 or 2026 if you exercise the option. You fill in your receiving core with the low round guys and cheaper vet WR that typically fill your WR depth. By the time Dotson's contract is up, you draft another WR in the mid rounds that can replace him for less money.

For the record, I'm not advocating that's what they should do, I'm just laying out what I believe will happen if they decide to take Harrison.
 
Kel Varnsen said:
I've always been in the camp of you draft the best player available at a position of need. So for example, you don't draft Bijan Robinson in this last draft if he makes it to you since you don't need an RB. He didn't make it there so they didn't have to make that decision, but you get the point. But you also can't pass on a game changing talent because you need to draft a certain position. I've never been in an NFL draft room, but I would hope the draft board would take these things into account. If you have two players you really like and really need, then you take the one that fits the immediate need. Or you take the one where there is less depth later in the draft that can fill your need. So I expect there is a lot of factors that goes into it. I think the unsuccessful teams are the ones who will draft a need because they have a need. And they will take the 5th OL while passing on the top or 2nd best DB for example because that's what they need.

What frustrated me about this current drafting process, and it was the same when drunk Scot was in charge, they always seemed to draft guys they thought would make them look like a genius instead of having an overall plan of attack in the draft. If they really liked a guy, they would decide to draft him before anyone else could. Sometimes it's worked out, like with Jahan Dotson. Other times it hasn't worked out like with Josh Doctson. But the overall draft and the ability to build a team through the draft has been severely lacking. I just feel like they should have filled more holes through the draft over 4 years. By focusing so many picks on one side of the ball, they have made picks to the determent of other positions, such as the OL. Missing on players doesn't help, but it's going to happen. That's even more reason why you need balance in drafting so that you can build depth for when you miss on a guy.

As for Harrison specifically, if you believe he will be a talent on the level of his father, then you have to consider drafting him if he's available. I know it's unfair comparison because of his last name, but if you can get a HOF receiver, you don't want to pass on that. But by the same token, if you see a HOF tackle or guard or any other position of need, you have to prioritize that. If they see Harrison Jr as that guy, then they should take him. Then you cut/trade Samuel. I can't tell what his contract status is for next year, but it looks like there may be an out of some sort. You also probably don't re-sign Dotson in 2025 or 2026 if you exercise the option. You fill in your receiving core with the low round guys and cheaper vet WR that typically fill your WR depth. By the time Dotson's contract is up, you draft another WR in the mid rounds that can replace him for less money.

For the record, I'm not advocating that's what they should do, I'm just laying out what I believe will happen if they decide to take Harrison.
Click to expand...


Jimmy Fallon Yes GIF by The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon
 
First, I don't believe we will have a shot at Harrison. I feel like he will be Top 3 or 4 in this draft and I detailed why I don't see us drafting there in this post.

Second, having a game-changing WR is really only good if your QB isn't throwing from his ass or running for his life. Currently, ours is trying to do both things - often on the same play.

Third, if Harrison is there when we are on the clock, the phone should be ringing off the hook. We should answer it and take the best deal offered.

Fourth, after drafting Young at #2 because he was the most "no-brainer" in the draft that year and seeing how that worked out, I no longer believe in no-brainers.

Yes, I'm cynical.

And yes, someone hurt me.
 
End of November, put me in the I want Brock Bowers camp. I know we need a left tackle. Just sayin. He’s different
 
I saw this today and it was something I didn’t know, I thought that head to head record was the primary tie-breaker.

 
I feel compelled to point out that the only reason we are 5th is because we have played fewer games than the Jets and Bucs. Both currently have a lower Strength of Schedule but are below us on the current list because we have lost 8 games while they have only lost 7.

Our bye is the week after next and I fully expect us to drop below both teams.

I also expect our SOS percentage to go up after playing Miami, SF, and Dallas again.
 
The Jets currently have a higher SOS according to Ben’s tweet. But, yes, I expect Washington’s will rise over the remaining games.
 
Totally fair, Chris. I was looking at the below order. Not sure when either was updated though so not sure which is correct in this moment. Both have the correct win/lose record for the teams though, so I'm guessing someone is off on that whole SOS thing.

24DraftOrder112723.PNG
 
This is from the NFL Rulebook...

"In situations where teams finished the previous season with identical records, the determination of draft position is decided by strength of schedule — the aggregate winning percentage of a team’s opponents. The team that played the schedule with the lowest winning percentage will be awarded the higher pick."

I'm assuming this means that SOS is not static, that it can and will change as a season progresses, and it won't be until the regular season is over that, if required as a tie-breaker for draft position, team rankings can be known.
 
Here is one more from MSN-

NFL draft first-round order​

(as of Nov. 26; * denotes wild-card team and # denotes division leader)
  1. Chicago Bears (from Panthers) — Carolina Panthers' record: 1-10 (strength of schedule: .537)
  2. Arizona Cardinals — Record: 2-10 (.533)
  3. New England Patriots — Record: 2-9 (.544)
  4. Chicago Bears — Record: 3-8 (.455)
  5. Washington Commanders — Record: 4-8 (.458)
  6. New York Giants — Record: 4-8 (.574)
  7. Tennessee Titans — Record: 4-7 (.500)
  8. New York Jets — Record: 4-7 (.536)
  9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Record: 4-7 (.549)
  10. Los Angeles Chargers — Record: 4-7 (.553)
 
Boone said:
This is from the NFL Rulebook...

"In situations where teams finished the previous season with identical records, the determination of draft position is decided by strength of schedule — the aggregate winning percentage of a team’s opponents. The team that played the schedule with the lowest winning percentage will be awarded the higher pick."

I'm assuming this means that SOS is not static, that it can and will change as a season progresses, and it won't be until the regular season is over that, if required as a tie-breaker for draft position, team rankings can be known.
Click to expand...
Yes, it is fluid.
 
How exciting to be tracking draft position instead of tracking playoff positioning. 🙃
 
Yes. This crossed my mind. :joker::juggle::rain::wall:
 
Yeah, the whole thing is crazy fluid, Boone.

We play Dallas again, SF, and Miami for 3 of our final 5 games. Those 3 teams are a combined 24-9 and that wining percentage is likely to increase. Even factoring in the 4-7 Jets and the 5-6 Rams, our SOS is going to go up.

The Jets have the Falcons, Texans, Dolphins, Commanders, Browns, and Patriots - so likely to go down IMHO. Of course, they could also win 2-3 of those games too so there is that.

The Bucs have the Panthers twice, Falcons, Packers, Jags, and Saints - so also likely to go down but also likely to win at least 2 games there.

I think we have a shot at winning one or both of the Rams and Jets contests (of course, we could get blown out in both as well) so all 3 teams are pretty much in the same boat except that they both have 6 games and we only have 5.
 
Sean McVay is probably licking his chops thinking about the Washington pass non-defense.

But…I’m sure the new DC will fix it right up. 😎
 
A handful of true Left Tackles will be available and where they likely pick, should be an easy decision IMO. Don't get suckered into how this is the best QB draft since whatever. 5 went in the top 15 in 2021 and only the #1 overall is developing. Happens every year now, you get someone talking about Zac Wilson and then the next thing you know, sportstalk in every town is talking that guy up, saying how much they love his game. And, I think there are front offices who fall for that when they media is locked in on a guy for months.
 
A five or even four, we probably wouldn't get our first choice at quarterback. Heck, we probably wouldn't even get our second. That's one more reason not to go QB. There have been situations where the third quarterback turned out amazing, but not all that often.

Howell has shown enough to say we have a legit NFL starter on our roster. He may have even shown he's a good QB. Despite our line, he already looks more advanced than quite a few first rounders like Picket or Mac Jones. He looks better than several second overall picks like Mitchell Tribusky or Zach Wilson.
 
burgold said:
A five or even four, we probably wouldn't get our first choice at quarterback. Heck, we probably wouldn't even get our second. That's one more reason not to go QB. There have been situations where the third quarterback turned out amazing, but not all that often.

Howell has shown enough to say we have a legit NFL starter on our roster. He may have even shown he's a good QB. Despite our line, he already looks more advanced than quite a few first rounders like Picket or Mac Jones. He looks better than several second overall picks like Mitchell Tribusky or Zach Wilson.
Click to expand...

New GM, New Coach, new system. I'd much rather have the smart pick for the OL. Unless something crazy happens and they can take Marvin Harrison Jr. I know we have some WRs but that dude is special. I'd probably take him if drafting that high.
 
This club needs the next franchise LT with a top pick. The bust rate is a lot lower for OL in the top 10 than quarterback.

And unlike a number of the teams with 2-3-4 wins, Washington has a quarterback with 18 touchdowns on the season.
 
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