2013 NFL Predictions

Nobody said:
Not hardly. They lead at the half, or in the 3rd or 4th quarters in a lot of the games they lost. He hadn't thrown 50 times at those points in the game, and they weren't playing from behind. What's your explanation for that? You're still acting like it was pass heavy for no reason other than they were playing catch up. Only they weren't, so your logic is still flawed.

The Packers were winners last season. And they did it with a garbage defense, no running game, and Rodgers throwing the ball 118 times fewer than Brees.

Look at the career numbers for Brees. With the exception of 2010 and 2011, the less Brees throws the ball, the more games his team wins. Generally when he throws it almost every down, he's ended up with a losing record. It isn't a coincidence.
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Ex, they were playing from behind a lot. Their offense was good enough to keep pace so scores at the half or whatever might tell a different story, but they were often playing from behind.

Edit: that's how a potent, quick strike offense like the Saints does it.

And the Packers defense was bad, but not HISTORICALLY bad.
 
servumtuum said:
Oh, absolutely, 2009 was their best season and Brees passing was notably less a dominant part of the offense.

2007 and 2008 the Saints led the league in passing attempts and were 2nd and 4th in percentage of the offense that were passing plays and two mediocre seasons as you point out, 7-9 and 8-8.

You're absolutely right about that.

However...

You know what?

They also led the league in pass attempts and were 2nd and 3rd in percent of offensive plays that were passing plays in 2010 and 2011. Those season records were 11-5 and 12-3.

Same approach, but widely different results.

What was different?
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Don't forget the time he played in San Diego. Same result. 3 pass heavy seasons where his record was 9-7, 8-8 and 2-9. The one season it wasn't pass heavy? He was 11-4. This has been going on since he took his first snap in the league, it isn't a snapshot over the past few seasons. There is a direct correlation between Drew Brees passing excessively, and his team being a loser as a result. A correlation no other QB in the league has had totally dominate their entire career, regardless of their team's running back or defense situations. You mention two seasons where that wasn't the case, but there are about a decade of seasons where that was the case.

Lanky Livingston said:
Ex, they were playing from behind a lot.
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They played from ahead a lot too, you can't discount that part just because it skews your stance. You ignore it only because it waters down your argument.

Lanky Livingston said:
And the Packers defense was bad, but not HISTORICALLY bad.
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The Saints defense wasn't HISTORICALLY BAD. Hell, they weren't even the worst in the league, there were two teams behind them. When the Packers did it, they were 32. THIRTY TWO. So not only was the Packers defense historically bad, to invalidate that aspect of your argument, they were the worst in the league. They WERE more historically bad than the Saints.

I'm not wrong, it's your perception of my correctness that's inaccurate ;)
 
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Ex, reread Serv's post; they were the first defense in NFL history to give up over 7000 yards through the air, hence historically bad.
 
Lanky Livingston said:
Ex, reread Serv's post; they were the first defense in NFL history to give up over 7000 yards through the air, hence historically bad.
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Correction Lanky, They gave up over 7000 yards of total offense not just passing yardage. It is still an all time NFL high.
 
I heard Rich Gannon on Sirius NFL predict the Skins to take the NFC East at 10 and 6 again. Dallas in second at 9 and 7.
 
servumtuum said:
Correction Lanky, They gave up over 7000 yards of total offense not just passing yardage. It is still an all time NFL high.
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My bad, 7000 yards total. Still historically awful, so my point stands. :) I will assume Ex has conceded by liking your post. :D
 
Enough arguing: time for my NFL prediction - I think the most improved team in the NFL will be Jacksonville. I believe they will challenge for the AFC South crown (eventually losing out to Houston), but if Jones-Drew can stay healthy all season, I think they secure a Wild Card berth.
 
Saints are 3-0, and Brees is on pace for over 5400 yards and 32 TDs through the air. Hrmmm.

:)
 
Lanky Livingston said:
Enough arguing: time for my NFL prediction - I think the most improved team in the NFL will be Jacksonville. I believe they will challenge for the AFC South crown (eventually losing out to Houston), but if Jones-Drew can stay healthy all season, I think they secure a Wild Card berth.
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Sorry, just had to quote this one before some "computer glitch" caused it to be edited. Lol
 
Goaldeje must have read Lanky's predictions before his FF drafts


;)


I'm still holding out for 12-4 from the skins.


That's right, you didn't misread that.

*ducks*
 
Nobody said:
I've been reading and watching a lot of things this offseason, and it made me realize something. I can make a lot of predictions that will seem bold as hell right now (and some a little less bold), that will make me look like a wizard by the end of the season. So here are the top 10 things I feel confident in saying.......(save your laughter for the end of the season)


1. The Arizona Cardinals are a sleeper team. They will finish with a winning record, and have the potential to fight for the wildcard. I feel like they just have too much to overcome within their own division though, and either Seattle or San Francisco will prevent them from getting it.

2. The Cincinnati Bengals will win the AFC North. No doubt in my mind about it. Baltimore took too much of a hit in the offseason, and it will leave them struggling to win more than 8 games.

3. The Pittsburgh Steelers will finish with a losing record. Big Ben is too fat, most of the team is too old, and there isn't a team in the league that truly fears them anymore. While I don't think they'll be 4-12 bad, they won't win more than 6 or 7 games.

4. The New England Patriots will lose their sense of invincibility this year. Their losses and drama will be too much to overcome. They'll only win 9 or 10 games, but since they have the benefit of being in such a pathetic division, they will still win the AFC East. And they will promptly be bounced out of the playoffs in the first round.

5. Drew Brees will have a mediocre season, by Drew Brees standards. He won't be close to 5,000 yards, and he will not throw more than 30 TD passes.

6. Russell Wilson will regress the most of all the hyped sophomore QBs.

7. Chris Johnson will return to elite form and be near the top of the league in yards and TDs all season.

8. The Houston Texans will get beat up a lot more than expected, and likely finish 10-6.

9. The Muscle Hamster will lead the NFL in rushing yards or TDs.

10. After week 6, the Jets will have a better record than the Giants.
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1. Check
2. Check
3. Pending, but likely
4. Pending
5. Meh, you can't get em all
6. See above
7. Shitting the bed
8. Worse than I expected them to be, and I expected them to be bad. The 10-6 was generous
9. IR
10. Full of win

Overall, not too shabby considering the predictions are supposed to be far fetched.
 
Jackass? Check.
 
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