2011 Tropical Weather Updates

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Chris said:
Yawn.

Damned if you do, damned if you don't.
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So a media that completely distorts the news they are supposed to report does not bother you?
 
My folks have been without power for 26+ hours now. Refridgerated items are now in ice chests - with ice. Freezer can go for two more days if needed. He may look for a generator tomorrow afternoon if power is not restored by then.

Flooding in this region is continuing to increase in many localities. Two locations nearby will be affected for a least a week. Numerous trees are down with a lot of damage. Cleanup will take several days.

The rest of you can keep arguing. Bah.
 
Be happy BB, they have Ice to cool food and drinks. There were nearly fist fights between people there was so little ice available after Charley. Six days without power, and I actually drove 4 miles with my family after 2 days to get a cold drink.
 
It's not fun at all. We are lucky in this location - power out for 14 hours is very doable for most people.

My folks had their power restored at 10:15 am - things are back to normal for them.
 
1/2 of my apt is still without power. Unfortunately this means no AC and no hot water for me. I'd much rather have those two things at this point over cable/internet and lights. At least I have something.

My parents and both my brothers have been without since Saturday. Everyone stayed at my oldest bro's house Sunday night bc he has a generator. My parents left bc it was such a zoo (literally, there were like 6 dogs + a cat staying there). So now my grandmother, who is also w/out power, is staying with my parents (only 3 dogs there :)). They were able to plug their fridge and freezer into the neighbor's generator.
 
Miles Monroe said:
Be happy BB, they have Ice to cool food and drinks. There were nearly fist fights between people there was so little ice available after Charley. Six days without power, and I actually drove 4 miles with my family after 2 days to get a cold drink.
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After Isabel I went 14 days without power. At one point I drove 20 miles to my Uncle's house. The county he lived in was giving out ice, so he got me a couple bags, which he had power. My parents had power, but heard their was ice at a local Kroger store. Met my parents there and they got a bag for me as I did, since limited you to one bag per person.

My father said he was 74 yrs old and never thought he would be standing in line to get ice.
 
All the models show Katia on a similar path as Irene, hold on to your hats folks.

We gulf-coasters are not safe either - there is a tropical wave in the caribbean ready for rapid intensification. Could slam the coast as early as this weekend.
 
NO ice..... It reminds me of Italy last summer. I was ready to kill for a glass with ice for my water, or a real cold can of Coke. When Cindy hurt her ankle, I got ice from the hotel under the pretense of using it for an ice pack for her foot. I did, but also used some for our drinks back in our room.

Funny, she needed another ice pack the following night.
 
Lanky Livingston said:
All the models show Katia on a similar path as Irene, hold on to your hats folks.

We gulf-coasters are not safe either - there is a tropical wave in the caribbean ready for rapid intensification. Could slam the coast as early as this weekend.
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Can't find squat about anything in the Caribbean on the NOAA sight.
 
I suppose I should have been more specific and said Texas, but nobody knows what it will do, so it might swing towards FL? They are talking about a low pressure area developing in the Western Gulf by the end of the week, which could be bad. Texas does need the rain reeeaallly badly, so its not necessarily a bad thing if we get dumped on.
 
It's also on Stormpulse. Right now they have it listed as low potential for development, with less than a 10% chance of developing into a tropical system.
 
Extreme said:
It's also on Stormpulse. Right now they have it listed as low potential for development, with less than a 10% chance of developing into a tropical system.
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Ya, our local guy mentioned it this morning, but doubts anything will come of it. I know it's keeping us pretty rainy here, pushing moisture into the area. I'm gonna need a herd of goats my lawn is gettin so tall.
 
Miles Monroe said:
Ya, our local guy mentioned it this morning, but doubts anything will come of it. I know it's keeping us pretty rainy here, pushing moisture into the area. I'm gonna need a herd of goats my lawn is gettin so tall.
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That's the exact opposite of the problem we have up here. Outside of Irene, we haven't had a drop of rain in months, other than a few 30 second pop up storms. Almost every lawn in the area is dead and dirt.
 
Hmm, the Houston weather people seem to think its a bit more serious than 10% - but then again their jobs are pretty easy. "Today it will be HOT."
 
It was recently upgraded to 30% potential for development. The thing is, there is almost no moisture with it, and it's extremely unorganized. Zero rotation, pulling no moisture in, etc. If it does anything, it will be just barely.
 
Extreme said:
It was recently upgraded to 30% potential for development. The thing is, there is almost no moisture with it, and it's extremely unorganized. Zero rotation, pulling no moisture in, etc. If it does anything, it will be just barely.
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You're right, it will probably turn out to be not a big deal - but conditions are perfect if a low-pressure area develops. The Gulf is smokin' hot right now. I think we'll get at least a tropical storm out of it.
 
Lanky Livingston said:
You're right, it will probably turn out to be not a big deal - but conditions are perfect if a low-pressure area develops. The Gulf is smokin' hot right now. I think we'll get at least a tropical storm out of it.
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Very possible with the Gulf heated up so much right now, but it will all depend on how it tracks. Right now, there is a small area of upper level winds off the western coast of Florida that would shear it apart and pull it into Florida as thunderstorms. Right now, the disturbance is headed that way. If it continues on that track, it will be eaten alive.

There is a similar area of upper level wind shear off to the south of Brownsville. So the only way this disturbance does anything, is if it manages to wiggle between those two areas. If that happens, you will definitely have a problem, because it could intensify rapidly.
 
At this point, they don't think it will intensify to a hurricane in the gulf, but a tropical storm is likely. Heading towards the big easy.....
 
Lee (as it will be named) is heading toward the Florida panhandle. The rains will head north to Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, New York, and New England - all areas that don't need it. Let's hope that the rains are no more than a couple of inches in most places.

Katia will stay out to sea and do the Hurricane Field Goal - go between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast and curve northeastward into the North Atlantic.

FYI...

When the NHC says that a system has a 10% chance of developing to a tropical cyclone - that is for the next forty-eight hours only. With each passing day, those odds can increase or decrease - but each forecast is for the next forty-eight hours only.

Also...

Texas will miss out on Lee. A shame - they could use the rains. A lot of rain. And cooler temps.
 
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