I don't pick winners when I have a vested interest. I'm a jinx that way. I do see a hell of a series that goes seven games.
So many people seem to be sleeping on the Heat defense though. There is not a better one in basketball this year. This will be the first quality defense that the Mavs have faced in the Playoffs. Dirk will not be guarded by the likes of Collison and Ibaka. He will face a bevy of defenders in Anthony, James, Bosh, and noted Dirk-killer Udonis Haslem.
Bosh is also not a weak defender, he just has strengths that most four's don't. His work against the Bull's pick and roll was a key to the last series. He is mobile and long, just not a physical presence inside. But then neither is Dirk.
I can't wait to see how Carlisle attempts to defend James and Wade. Dirk can't cover LeBron, Marion can't for 40 minutes. Neither Terry nor Kidd can stick Wade. Maybe Dallas goes zone.