The 2026 Draft Thread - 1st Round - 7th overall

I've never understood why it was devalued to begin with.
Because it is a passing league now. The rules made it that way. You are about as likely to get a holding call against you on a running play as the defense is to get one on a passing play. The rules are skewed toward passing. Now you can certainly have a pass catching RB.
 
McShay seems to think Love goes before 7, Kiper had him going before 7, too. Not that its gospel what they think but they both are plugged in in the context of talking to scouts.

I don't think they can count on Love being slam dunk being there at 7. I'd guess 50-50.

Looking at the free agency. I think the easier approach is take the WR, TE, RB in FA and go all defense in the draft. WR is the wildcard, you have to overpay to go for a very good one like Doubs or Pierce assuming they even hit FA, plus there clearly are hungrier teams like this team under Peters as to helping their young QBs. So that's my long winded way of saying I wonder if they target Tate or Tyson.

The quandary they have if they are price conscious and Peters certaintly so far is big time price conscious -- edge and WR are expensive spots. If I am Harris I'd at least question Peters by saying the Bears major in high draft capital for passing weapons, we don't, why not? My point is I wonder if Peters feels some pressure to take a WR top 10.

If you think about it, imagine Ryan Poles in this situation if the Bears had freaken Noah Brown as their starting Z and Chris Moore as the top outside WR backup, blowing off WR with a top 10 pick when you arguably got 2 of them worth it in that range.

That's not my long winded way to saying draft Tate or Tyson. I am still in the Bailey camp. Love would be my 2nd. Downs #3. But at some point when your season goes to hell, people want your head, and you watch the most on point apples to apples comp to this team the Bears do it differently and win -- I wonder if the politics of that influences you.

I think you might have some ego-politics here potentially. Ben Johnson not only spurned this operation but made fun of it when doing so. Now he goes to the Bears, his FO goes all in to help Caleb, they beat this team in a game that sent both teams in opposite directions and now they are winning in the playoffs.

lol, if Peters starts to look at it as what would the Bears do? They'd draft Love or Tate or Tyson IMO. This defense needs to be fixed but the offense is incomplete and its showing its warts as to team building compared to teams like the Bears.
 
Started to break down some LBs.

Arvell Reese, Ohio State - I think I had previously underrated him a bit. He gets himself around the ball and finishes tackles. He is a very good pass rusher who is explosive off the edge. He is big at 6-4, 240 and runs roughly a 4.5 40. Those numbers will be verified, but he can play some edge and likely some inside linebacker. A lot of the big plays he makes are plays where he is unblocked. But when he is blocked you can see him keep his eyes on the action, diagnose and chase. And he makes quite a few cleanup tackles and drive saving tackles off of that recognition and hustle. He is an offensive coordinator's physical nightmare. He can be moved all over the defense, though he is probably best on the edge in a 3-4 type defense (keep that in mind if we hire a 3-4 guy). I did see him lose contain a few times on the edge and he isn't great in coverage.

Sonny Styles, Ohio State - Styles is a true inside linebacker. He does a REALLY nice job reading guards when he is in the box and has extremely quick feet which allow him to hesi-fake a lineman and plug himself into the open gap. He uses his hands well , keeps his shoulders square as he scrapes on outside run and when getting downhill, positions his body well maintaining inside hip leverage as a tackler and has good sideline to sideline speed. He can also line up wide and play more of a hybrid role on occasion and blitz or drop into a curl/flat responsibility. He is incredibly athletic. I think he is more of a true inside backer, he tends to lose quicker guys in coverage. His pass rush move is mostly "run as fast as I can at you and explode into you" but at times he shows more versatility in his toolbox. He bites on playaction, but that's a double edged sword - he'll be there on the run. He'll be late on pass. Pick your poison. He is also really inexperienced at LB, which I actually view as a net positive given his skillset. He has a lot of room to grow and is at a high level already.

Anthony Hill, Texas - Athletic linebacker. He's really aware in coverage. Uses his eyes to play the quarterback's vision cone and doesn't fall for cheap tricks. He gets himself in good position and capitalizes as he has a good ability to break on the ball. He is a guy that likes to force turnovers. When someone does catch the ball and they don't have eyes on him the first thing he does is finds the football and as he wraps he punches. He also finds himself around the football on a regular basis. Big hitter, good pass rusher, reads the run well and he processes information really well. He relies a lot on his physical traits to defeat blockers and at times can struggle against the bigger more powerful offensive linemen, needs to use his hands better when taking on blocks. Man coverage is good but can use improvement.

CJ Allen, Georgia - He is incredibly aggressive. He has good hips and can get from coverage to run defense and vice versa really well. Clearly has a high football IQ and closes on tackles really well. He sheds blocks really well. He seems a little bit slow in changing direction from a side to side scrape situation. This isn't all that much of an issue for him as his football IQ rarely puts him in a place where that comes into play, but his aggressiveness does sometimes get him a bit out of position and causes him to need to change direction quickly and it's not always a net positive for him. He's definitely more of a run stopper than a coverage guy, but can do both. He has a really high ceiling.

Taurean York, Texas A&M - You can tell he knows how to take command of the defense and has intimate knowledge of A&Ms scheme. He leads that defense and understands the nuances. Physically he isn't all that imposing. He's smaller than the top guys in this class and he takes on a lot of unnecessary blocks and struggles to get off them at times. Good blitzer, good in underneath coverage, good motor and I'd bet he has a really high tackling percentage - he doesn't appear to miss often when he is in the right spot. He is a quality guy to snag in day 2/3 and can blossom into something great - but he lacks some of the tools the top guys have which means he will likely not be in the conversation with them in the early rounds.

Josiah Trotter, Mizzou - I don't see his name talked about a lot but I watched a Mizzou game this year and he jumped out. So I decided to take a look at him. This guy is 100 miles per hour at all moments of all times. Ball goes across the field? No problem, he'll chase it and make a touchdown saving tackle when all the point of attack defenders missed. Block shedding? Yes, he does it well. Blitzing? Yup. Looks like he's shot out of a cannon. Lateral movement? Check. Hammer mindset. Uses a good butt/bench technique to take on the larger offensive lineman and diagnoses plays and goes. He also has an uncanny ability to navigate traffic. There are times that you can tell he is a bit smaller for a linebacker. Sometimes he does everything right and an offensive lineman will get a piece of him and he'll be two gaps away from where he was supposed to be. Sometimes he has such a "hammer" mindset that he will forego the ball carrier to destroy a blocker, which can be great and at times he does it to free a stunt and that is valuable... but sometimes he just does it because he wants to send a message. Which... I also love. But he'll do it at the expense of the play at times. He needs to reign that in. This guy is my sleeper for this class at the moment.

Deontae Lawson, Alabama - He looks the part. And he is physically intimidating. He always seems to be talking pre-snap and he may be the best in this class at hand usage as far as block shedding goes. He does everything you want from an inside backer. But he gets lost inside sometimes when OL get to the second level he gets swallowed up inside at times. Not a sideline to sideline guy and even though his hand usage is great when shedding blocks it doesn't always equate to winning, he doesn't look like he gets much juice out of his lower body when butt/benching an OL, which makes it difficult to separate. He also has a bit of a checkered injury history.

My ILB rankings (so far):

1. Sonny Styles, Ohio State
2. Anthony Hill, Texas
3. CJ Allen, Georgia
4. Josiah Trotter, Mizzou
5. Taurean York, A&M
6. Deontae Lawson, Alabama

Arvell Reese isn't listed here. I am not sure he is an inside linebacker in the NFL. He is better on the edge and moving around, so he is sort of a wildcard positionally. He can definitely play inside, but he can also play edge (though a bit small for that on a routine basis). I think fairly highly of Reese and in a vacuum where size doesn't enter the equation I think he might be the second best pass rusher in class, only behind David Bailey. Total package wise Reese is a first rounder, likely top 15. But I have a hard time slotting him into any one position which does cause a bit of concern for me.

Josiah Trotter is my wildcard here. I LOVE his all gas no brakes style.
Great breakdowns!
I have been a big Hill fan since last year this year.

I fell in like with Reese and Bailey early this year. I really like what you wrote about Reese. My understanding with some of the late games OS played he was being used as a spy and why was not on the edge as much. I did see they moved him around a lot. ( I love Bailey like many others here have fallen for)

In paying attention to Reese a lot, Styles jumped out constantly especially later in the year and in games Reese was quieted. I think he is like a gem later in the first round.

Allen slid a little on my scale late as he seemed to only being used part time, I want a guy that can always be in the game and feel coaches felt he wasn't great in passing situations

You have me pumped to check out Trotter more, I read very little on him.

It feels like there like normal are a lot of day 3 LBs that could be nice backups and STers
 
Agree with this below, one of my favs last year

Kenyon Sadiq is a fun watch but not a polished receiver like Loveland. He’s sort of like the Luther Burden version of TE’s. YAC guy and can motor off of screens. Good blocker too

Max Klare IMO a poor man’s version of Loveland.

 
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Watched more Bailey, Love, Tate, Tyson, Downs -- IMO all likely going to be really good NFL players, Tyson the biggest grower for me in that mix. Love his head fakes and how he stems his routes, natural seperator. Bailey my #1 guy.

I watched more Lemon, too. I see he has some detractors on this thread. He physically doesn't look like the typical #1 WR. But i am doubling down on the idea if they trade down he'd be my #1 want. Just a quick seperator, glue hands, one of the better YAC guys in this group -- but among these WRs he's the dude who comes off as one who won't be denied, baller, it jumps out in a big way when watching him. I've watched a bunch of these WRs, still diving in, Lemon is the most fun watch so far. And you can see his intensity when the camera pans to him off the field -- he has that sort of old school Gary Clark look.

Among draft geeks I noticed Tate, Lemon, Tyson are interchangeable as to their #1 Wr, with Lemon usually the third because of being a slot. For me I got no issue with that, lol I hate to fall in line with consensus on these three but right now i am there with the consensus but the combine can be a game changer on this front. Only WR close to those three IMO is Boston.

All three are different flavors so it depends on what you want. Tate -- Devonte Smith-Adams hybrid IMO. Can make acrobatic catches, great body control, amazing hands, great blocker -- but he's not an all over the field kind of WR IMO to use a baseball analogy he's a doubles-home run hitter. He's a natural Z IMO.

Tyson is an all over the field type of WR. Stefon Diggs some JSN, quick seperator and in small space and on that front reminds me of Beckham. Tyson would easily be my #1 if he was a YAC guy and some say he is but he's not. I think he's an X who could replace Terry at some point.

Lemon -- hard comp for me, he's IMO a mix of Kupp, McConkey, JSN. Not exactly like anyone of them. To use a Washington example, Jamison Crowder at his peak but a better athlete, much more intense and better than Crowder at everything. But I bring up Crowder because at his peak was a quick seperator. He's a natural of course Y-slot WR. Super quick seperator in tight spaces like Tyson. But plays with a competitiveness and drive that is hard to miss that makes him come off to me like a gamer that's why I comp him some to McConkey. In a big game in the playoffs with everything on the line, I'd trust a big throw from Jayden to Lemon. You throw a quick screen and need the WR to dodge a defender and motor 5 yards to win the game -- am not trusting Boston or Tate or Tyson to do it, I am trusting Lemon.








At 5-foot-11 and 195 pounds, Lemon is on the smaller side. I have him categorized as a slot receiver, not just because he played 354 snaps in the slot compared to just 54 out wide in 2024, but also due to how he wins and his strengths. Lemon is lightning quick. He has short strides but moves his legs like pistons in an engine, firing out of his stance to eat up cushion in coverage or getting vertical before defenders can adjust.

He is also a nuanced and technical route runner, despite being just a true junior entering 2025. He knows how to set up defenders against their leverage and can find soft spots against zone by tempoing his speed at different points in his route. Lemon's PFF Game Athleticism Score in 2024 ranked just above the 95th percentile, with five plays where he topped 20 mph. But more telling than his top speed is his play speed, evidenced by his 100 plays where he was clocked between 15-20 mph. Despite facing press on only 85 of his 262 receiving snaps in 2024, he already has a good baseline of different releases versus press coverage. And as a run blocker, he is feisty and strong for his body type.

Lemon also fares well in PFF's stable metrics, which are predictive of success from year to year. In other words, if a player ranks highly in a stable metric in college, they have a strong chance of doing so in the NFL, even with a built-in dip in rate because of the bump in talent. The opposite is true, too.

He placed in the 87th percentile in separation rate (83.6%) and ranked in the 65th percentile in separation rate against single coverage (63.3%) in 2024. His 3.03 yards per route run — a good way to look at per-play production — slotted him into the 89th percentile.

Makai Lemon's 2024 Stable Metric Ranks

Stable MetricPercentile Among WRs
PFF Receiving Grade94th
PFF Receiving Grade vs. Single Coverage94th
PFF Receiving Grade vs. Zone, Underneath, Top72nd
Separation Rate87th
Separation Rate vs. Single Coverage65th
Yards per Route Run89th
Average Depth of Target27th
Yards After the Catch per Reception81st
When we think of WR1-caliber prospects in a draft class, big-bodied “X” receivers often come to mind. That's true for most drafts. But just like in 2023 when Jaxson Smith-Njigba was WR1, there are outliers. The name of the game is getting open, and Lemon does that at a high level and possesses the traits to continue to do so in the NFL.
 
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Let’s talk about Love.

I see a ridiculously fast runner that has great hands. He’s a North and South back and awesome in the pass game. Obvious ++ athlete that will test amazing if he chooses to participate and has tons of production. Has power between the tackles and when the pads meet.

He’s at least an easy top 20 pick in this draft, but I wonder about a few things compared to other high 1st round RBs because I don’t see him being very shifty.

Bijan had all he does, plus he slithered through traffic. Barkley had all that, but he had these crazy jump cuts and insane 2nd level vision. Gibbs had all of that, but was more compact in size and had the shiftiness.

I’m trying to pick holes in an elite prospect. And in that vein, I don’t like that he relies so much on hurdling or just out sprinting dudes. I don’t think those traits translate to the same degree in the NFL.

It kind of reminds me of Reggie Bush, who was super elite prospect and turned into a very good pro, but didn’t hit the expected ceiling. And I called that one because I didn’t like how he was basically never contacted in college. He was just faster than everyone and had great vision and cuts, but didn’t break tackles or grind through traffic. I’m having similar vibes with Love although they aren’t quite the same concerns.

To be clear, I believe he’s going to be really good. I’m interested in dissecting between All-Pro or sometimes Pro-Bowler. And I haven’t reached any conclusions so would appreciate to hear thoughts from this very intelligent group.

It’s interesting because it’s a rarer archetype of runner to see become unquestionably elite, but it has happened—the top modern examples being CJ2K and Jamaal Charles. I think Love has playing strength and ability to navigate traffic past the LOS closer to those guys than let’s say, a CJ Spiller type.
 
It's fascinating to me how the running back position is now valued more than it was just a year or 2 ago. Unless it's a Barkley teams have been reluctant to pick a back high as the position had been devalued so much in today's game. I remember reading a lot of questions when Atlanta took BJ. I'm glad to see this, a top RB can have a huge impact.

With all that said I don't want them to draft Love. Top edges are really hard to acquire and I'm confident they won't be picking at 7 too many times moving forward. Bailey is now my guy even thought I love the idea of Downs, a premier pass rusher can have a larger impact. Which is why I don't think Bailey will be there at 7.

I think many agree, and like you said, it’s a major reason why Bailey might not even be there at 7 anyways. So then you’re looking for a game changer if you aren’t 1000% sold on Downs.
 
It would be organizational malpractice if this team takes Love or Downs over Tate/Tyson/Bailey.

Willing to entertain it, but they had better be generational, or your team had better have their higher value positions filled.

The rookie pay scale makes it make so much more sense to go after QB/WR/Edge/LT in the top 10 over the rest.

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So at 7, we're paying an average of like 8.9M per year.

If you take an RB, you're paying Chubba Hubbard, DSwift, DMonty money right out of the gate. Jeanty is the 14th highest paid RB right from the get-go. You're probably just paying the market rate for Love, and for like an extra mil you can probably get Breece Hall who's a proven receiving back AND get to use your 1st elsewhere. Like Love would need to be Barkley/Henry tier to be really saving you any real money.

For safety it's a little better, you'd be the 22nd highest AAV. They start saving you some money if they get into that "really good" tier that costs 15Mish a year, but even there it's not exactly massive savings.
 
It’s interesting because it’s a rarer archetype of runner to see become unquestionably elite, but it has happened—the top modern examples being CJ2K and Jamaal Charles. I think Love has playing strength and ability to navigate traffic past the LOS closer to those guys than let’s say, a CJ Spiller type.

I had to go back and watch some CJ and Charles highlights because my kneejerk reaction was I recall them being much different than I described Love. I saw more creativity, cutting, and juking in the first couple clips than I’ve seen from Love in totality.

I’m struggling to think of a comp I can agree with.
 
Watched more Bailey, Love, Tate, Tyson, Downs -- IMO all likely going to be really good NFL players, Tyson the biggest grower for me in that mix. Love his head fakes and how he stems his routes, natural seperator. Bailey my #1 guy.

I watched more Lemon, too. I see he has some detractors on this thread. He physically doesn't look like the typical #1 WR. But i am doubling down on the idea if they trade down he'd be my #1 want. Just a quick seperator, glue hands, one of the better YAC guys in this group -- but among these WRs he's the dude who comes off as one who won't be denied, baller, it jumps out in a big way when watching him. I've watched a bunch of these WRs, still diving in, Lemon is the most fun watch so far. And you can see his intensity when the camera pans to him off the field -- he has that sort of old school Gary Clark look.

Among draft geeks I noticed Tate, Lemon, Tyson are interchangeable as to their #1 Wr, with Lemon usually the third because of being a slot. For me I got no issue with that, lol I hate to fall in line with consensus on these three but right now i am there with the consensus but the combine can be a game changer on this front. Only WR close to those three IMO is Boston.

All three are different flavors so it depends on what you want. Tate -- Devonte Smith-Adams hybrid IMO. Can make acrobatic catches, great body control, amazing hands, great blocker -- but he's not an all over the field kind of WR IMO to use a baseball analogy he's a doubles-home run hitter. He's a natural Z IMO.

Tyson is an all over the field type of WR. Stefon Diggs some JSN, quick seperator and in small space and on that front reminds me of Beckham. Tyson would easily be my #1 if he was a YAC guy and some say he is but he's not. I think he's an X who could replace Terry at some point.

Lemon -- hard comp for me, he's IMO a mix of Kupp, McConkey, JSN. Not exactly like anyone of them. To use a Washington example, Jamison Crowder at his peak but a better athlete, much more intense and better than Crowder at everything. But I bring up Crowder because at his peak was a quick seperator. He's a natural of course Y-slot WR. Super quick seperator in tight spaces like Tyson. But plays with a competitiveness and drive that is hard to miss that makes him come off to me like a gamer that's why I comp him some to McConkey. In a big game in the playoffs with everything on the line, I'd trust a big throw from Jayden to Lemon. You throw a quick screen and need the WR to dodge a defender and motor 5 yards to win the game -- am not trusting Boston or Tate or Tyson to do it, I am trusting Lemon.








At 5-foot-11 and 195 pounds, Lemon is on the smaller side. I have him categorized as a slot receiver, not just because he played 354 snaps in the slot compared to just 54 out wide in 2024, but also due to how he wins and his strengths. Lemon is lightning quick. He has short strides but moves his legs like pistons in an engine, firing out of his stance to eat up cushion in coverage or getting vertical before defenders can adjust.

He is also a nuanced and technical route runner, despite being just a true junior entering 2025. He knows how to set up defenders against their leverage and can find soft spots against zone by tempoing his speed at different points in his route. Lemon's PFF Game Athleticism Score in 2024 ranked just above the 95th percentile, with five plays where he topped 20 mph. But more telling than his top speed is his play speed, evidenced by his 100 plays where he was clocked between 15-20 mph. Despite facing press on only 85 of his 262 receiving snaps in 2024, he already has a good baseline of different releases versus press coverage. And as a run blocker, he is feisty and strong for his body type.

Lemon also fares well in PFF's stable metrics, which are predictive of success from year to year. In other words, if a player ranks highly in a stable metric in college, they have a strong chance of doing so in the NFL, even with a built-in dip in rate because of the bump in talent. The opposite is true, too.

He placed in the 87th percentile in separation rate (83.6%) and ranked in the 65th percentile in separation rate against single coverage (63.3%) in 2024. His 3.03 yards per route run — a good way to look at per-play production — slotted him into the 89th percentile.

Makai Lemon's 2024 Stable Metric Ranks

Stable MetricPercentile Among WRs
PFF Receiving Grade94th
PFF Receiving Grade vs. Single Coverage94th
PFF Receiving Grade vs. Zone, Underneath, Top72nd
Separation Rate87th
Separation Rate vs. Single Coverage65th
Yards per Route Run89th
Average Depth of Target27th
Yards After the Catch per Reception81st
When we think of WR1-caliber prospects in a draft class, big-bodied “X” receivers often come to mind. That's true for most drafts. But just like in 2023 when Jaxson Smith-Njigba was WR1, there are outliers. The name of the game is getting open, and Lemon does that at a high level and possesses the traits to continue to do so in the NFL.


skinsinparadise Maybe you’ve looked into this but anecdotally it seems some of these guys who get labeled slot only by the draft media get meaningful outside reps. Njigba and Nakua as examples
 
It’s interesting because it’s a rarer archetype of runner to see become unquestionably elite, but it has happened—the top modern examples being CJ2K and Jamaal Charles. I think Love has playing strength and ability to navigate traffic past the LOS closer to those guys than let’s say, a CJ Spiller type.

Oh shit bro just watched him a bunch more and I got it…the comp is Eric Dickerson. Everything is full speed all the time, shot out of a cannon, subtle side steps with enough power to bounce off the glancing blows the speed creates and can hit the B button on contact and roll it back to full speed immediately. And Dickerson was a good receiver it just wasn’t utilized as much back then, but Love has him beat in the hands category soundly even with the era adjustment.

Ok ok, I get it now. He needs to stop trying to jump over everyone though.

I revise my previous statements. He should be under consideration at 7. In theory I’d rather their top WR (haven’t watched them much yet) or Bailey, but I get it now.

Not changing my mind on Downs. He’s awesome but we can’t shop in that aisle.
 
skinsinparadise Maybe you’ve looked into this but anecdotally it seems some of these guys who get labeled slot only by the draft media get meaningful outside reps. Njigba and Nakua as examples

Lemon has played outside some. He can do it at least in college well, played about 33% wide last year, but body type he comes off more of a slot
 
I’ll need to watch more of Lemon. On first watch he was not someone I thought was worthy of a high selection, and it seems like the media is trying to push his traits to kind of offset that. But generally SIP has a good eye and I’m not generally as far off on a guy as we seem to be on Lemon… so when I get a chance I’ll take a look again and see what I think.

Sarratt is still my guy.
 
I’ll need to watch more of Lemon. On first watch he was not someone I thought was worthy of a high selection, and it seems like the media is trying to push his traits to kind of offset that. But generally SIP has a good eye and I’m not generally as far off on a guy as we seem to be on Lemon… so when I get a chance I’ll take a look again and see what I think.

Sarratt is still my guy.

This is not a great draft class. All the draft class analysts that I listen to like Dane Brugler (Building the Beast podcast) or the guys on the Daft on Draft podcast agree on that. And that makes a receiver like Lemon who may go between 15 and 25 in other draft classes viable in like the 6 to 20 range pending on team needs. I like Sarratt too, but his lack of athleticism means he is not going in the first round. He kind of reminds me of Jahan Dotson in terms of quality of prospect (totally different player though, Dotson was more athletic and way less physical) in that he is a prospect who has a realistic projection as a WR2. Dotson never fulfilled his potential as a solid #2 WR, but I think Sarratt could, but Surratt is definitely a prospect you can get on day 2.
 
This is not a great draft class. All the draft class analysts that I listen to like Dane Brugler (Building the Beast podcast) or the guys on the Daft on Draft podcast agree on that. And that makes a receiver like Lemon who may go between 15 and 25 in other draft classes viable in like the 6 to 20 range pending on team needs. I like Sarratt too, but his lack of athleticism means he is not going in the first round. He kind of reminds me of Jahan Dotson in terms of quality of prospect (totally different player though, Dotson was more athletic and way less physical) in that he is a prospect who has a realistic projection as a WR2. Dotson never fulfilled his potential as a solid #2 WR, but I think Sarratt could, but Surratt is definitely a prospect you can get on day 2.
I agree that Sarratt is a day 2 guy while also simultaneously believing he is the best overall receiver in the class.

That feels weird to say but draft classes are odd.
 

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