The 2026 Draft Thread - 1st Round - 7th overall

I listened to the Daft on Draft post on Edge rushers recently and the two guys on the episode didn't think much of Bailey as a run defender. I know his PFF run defense grade is good this year at 79, but the previous two years it was in the 50s and it sounds like he may lack the traits such as heavy hands or the techniques to shed blocks in the run game and a strong anchor. He does have fairly long arms which helps, but the tape seems to suggest he struggles once a tackle gets into his chest.

If you wanted to draft him as an every down player, you may have to play an over front where the 1 and 3 technique are effectively clogging the middle. In that context, his only responsibility is to set an edge and keep the play inside. This protects him because the interior defensive linemen are eating up the blocks and closing the interior gaps, allowing him to stay clean and use his length to contain the runner.

In other fronts where you need him to shed blocks or anchor and clog space, he probably does not have what it takes to be a good run defender. At least that is the vibe I was getting from the podcast, as I don't actually watch the film myself. We don't know who the next Defensive Coordinator will be or what fronts they will play, but that is definitely something to be aware of with Bailey. If we hire a DC who runs a more gap-heavy or odd front system, he might end up being just a situational pass rusher.
 
Draft Love. Let him and Daniels play in the preseason to establish some chemistry, then stash both on IR with season ending "injuries". Tank again. Draft Jeremiah Smith with the #1 overall pick. Build a defense with FAs and whatever draft picks are left and let the "3 Js" dominate the league.

In all seriousness, I would like Downs to be the pick. He can be the top quality mortar that will hold all of these misshapen, old, and cracked defensive bricks in place until enough of them can be upgraded. A true force multiplier for this broken down/talent-depleted defense.
 
KDawg said:
If we’re expanding all the positions we could use an upgrade I’d list:

G

RB

WR1/2/3 (2 of the 3… depending on where Terry slots)

TE1

CB1/3

FS

SS

DT

Edge x2

ILB

K

Realistically, we can’t target all of them.

Replace Quan, get a new top RB, get a possession guy and get two quality edges, imo. That puts us in position for immediate success.

Now… that is easier said than done even with the limited version of this list.
Click to expand...

It’s not going to be easy to fill all the premium positions (WR, EDGE, CB1, pass rushing DT) in one offseason but AP will have failed if he can’t fill all the non premium positions with upgrades, especially when a bunch of those positions have depth in FA in quality.

Curious as to why you see G as a need. Not a Chris Paul fan?
 
Last edited:
I mentioned this in a prior post but I am very much liking this year's NT-3-Tech-5-Tech DT class. I especially like the nose tackles. A prospect I really like that might fall into our laps at a bargain is Minnesota Golden Gopher NT Deven Eastern.

Also, Minnesota RB Darius Taylor will probably head back to school but I see him as a great fit for the Commanders too.
 
Last edited:
The Chump Bailey said:
I mentioned this in a prior post but I am very much liking this year's NT-3-Tech-5-Tech DT class. I especially like the nose tackles. A prospect I really like that might fall into our laps at a bargain is Minnesota Golden Gopher NT Deven Eastern.

Also, Minnesota RB Darius Taylor will probably head back to school but I see him as a great fit for the Commanders too.
Click to expand...

We may need some 5 techs depending on who the new DC ends up being
 
KDawg said:
Injuries will do that. I also think there is some blame on Sinnott/Kingsbury/Quinn. Sinnott is a YAC guy that hasn’t been getting the opportunities to be a YAC guy.

We need to get him the ball more. We need a possession guy - doesn’t need to be a stud - that makes consistent catches (doesn’t have to be anything spectacular) at X as well. Use Sinnott in that role as a move H.
Click to expand...

Well, as I'm sure you're well aware, there's this guy in the draft who has a 100th percentile contested catch rate. From a pretty good school too I hear :p
 
skinsinparadise No trade down scenario. Not too bad. WR Singleton Jr. from Auburn actually has some excellent mitts, good speed too but he's on the small side. Downs in the crown jewel. LBs Fisher and Louis are underrated. TE Royer is pretty athletic and has good hands and EDGE Young is on the upswing.

1767147664321.png
 
RWJ said:
No trade down scenario. Not too bad. WR Singleton Jr. from Auburn actually has some excellent mitts, good speed too but he's on the small side. Downs in the crown jewel. LBs Fisher and Louis are underrated. TE Royer is pretty athletic and has good hands and EDGE Young is on the upswing.

View attachment 13770
Click to expand...

The two linebackers you took at the end remind me a bit of this year's LB'er class. Fisher is a bit like Ale Kaho. Not overly physically talented but decent instincts. Fisher plays a much bigger role with his college team than Kaho. Kaho was he third LB'er on his team and only played like a third of snaps. Carson Schwesinger the possibly Defensive Rookie of the Year was LB1 and Madrano was LB 2 for UCLA leave Kaho as the LB for UCLA who only played in base. Fisher is the #1 LB for Indiana. I think Fisher has more NFL tools than Kaho, but same basic compromises inof decent instincts compromised physical traits. I do think Fisher goes earlier than 197, I am guessing 120 to 150 or something like that. Kyle Louis is like Kain Medrano, more of an undersized overhang LB (where you will be fighting off blocks of TE's and WR's) than a traditional stack LB (where you will be fighting off blocks of Guards) and like Medrano feels more like he could potentially take on a S/LB hybrid role. I don't know if he has Medrano's explosive atheleticism (Medrano ran a 4.46), but Louis is pretty athletic. He is in the same ballpark as a prospect as Medrano, but he seems redundant because we already have Medrano. He could end being a better or worse player than Medrano. He may not be quite as athletic gifted as Medrano but may be a better tackler. The overhand LB'er is ideally a good tackler. The assignments are easier, you have to deal with TE's and WR's as overhang LBers, but if you lose the RB gets outside and you are looking at 10 to 30 yard run. As a stack LBer the assignments can be tougher taking on a guard, but if you fail to get off that block, the consequences are usually more like a 5 to 15 yard run. So Medrano lack of tackling skill is a pretty big downside to an overhang LB'er even if athleticism is excellent.
 
Last edited:
Bailey bench presses 405, squats 550, and supposedly has 34-35 inch arms. PFF grade against the run 78. Some youtubers say he's good against the run, some say he's not. McShay who talks to scouts seems to like him against the run.

Not enough footage right now for me to watch to evaluate. But talking about this conceptually yeah the idea of a Brian Burns, Max Crosby, Micah Parsons type isn't about run stopping but about terrorizing the QB.

If we are looking more for a pass rusher who on occasion can bring pressure but won't terrorize a QB and generally won't make a play with a game on the line but is strong against the run, we can maybe get D. Wise back. Bring us your 4 sacks and set the edge.

To use the Eagles as a comparison. Jalen Carter is a pass rusher, he's meh at best against the run but generally below average. If you want the run stopper that's Jordan Davis.

But yeah in general if you'd rather have a 4-6 sack guy who is stout against the run versus a 10-15 sacks guy, who might be ok against the run, but not always, David Bailey isn't your cup of tea.



 
Micah Parsons is interesting cause his arms were only 31.5 inches. It doesn't affect his pass rush much because he is not a bull rusher. If uses power its speed to power on the outside shoulder and he is the best pure get the edge speed pass rusher in the NFL (which also sets him up for inside counters when the Tackle overcommits to protecting the edge). But Parsons is small (240 to 245) and has short arms and has not been a good run defender.

For Bailey I am going off secondary opinions of the two guys on the Daft on Draft podcast but essentially I took from them that he could be an every down player and okay run defender an over front where basically he just needs to set the edge and force the play inside because he has the long arms. But in fronts where you need more from an edge where you need them to shed blocks ( questions of whether he has violent enough hands) or clog lanes (questions of whether he can anchor against a T/TE double team) he is probably not an every down player at least at the start of his career. I am guessing that his run grade at Texas Tech may be better than at Stanford more because of Texas Tech defense usage. I think Texas Tech uses a 3-4 where he is technically an on the ball LB and he really only needs to set the edge and force the play inside. I think Stanford ran a 4-3 where they asked him to do more as a run defender and he was so-so at it. Regardless I do think Bailey is the best pass rusher and worthy of a top 10 pick. But in some systems he is like a top 5 pick and in other systems he is more like a pick 10-15 guy because he may not be an everydown player. We don't know right now what defensive system we will run next year.
 
And that's why this draft kinda feels win win.

An amazing wide receiver falls to us? We need that!
A devestating edge falls to us? We need that too!
A rangy linebacker with passrushing skillls? Bring 'im on!
A really smart, instinctual game changing safety? Nothing wrong with high quality pastry!
A generational running back? Why would we say no!

I like Bill (and his story enough) that I think we will be good without at RB without Love. I sort of feel about getting Love the way I did about getting Connerly. I thought we were set at right tackle with Coleman and given his play at left I think I was correct, but the team wanted to do better than set and thought Connerly a future star. So while Love would be my least favorite pick I could easily get behind the idea. Trading good for great isn't a bad thing. I just think that Bill with a year under his belt to get better at the pass pro, get a little stronger, and work on his receiving skills could be a top third RB so I'd look to pass rusher first, everything else second.
 
Bain is so hard for me to figure out. lol, i need to spend more time on it. Not a lot of games to watch on some of these prospects I assume that will change once the college season is over.

I think I've talked myself into Tyson. I still like Tate over him. But Tyson is so good at seperating, can beat man and zone, has good releases. My issue with him aside from durability is he's ordinary at YAC and isn't a big deep threat -- he's more of a dude who kills on the first and 2nd level.

But he's so consistent, and can seperate so well including in tight space, and ala Terry can make some spectacular catches even with defenders draped on him. If Tate is gone, and they go Tyson lets say at 7, I've seen enough that I'd be good with it.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Total: 5, Members: 0, Guests: 5)

Help Users

You haven't joined any rooms.

    You haven't joined any rooms.
    Top