The 2026 Draft Thread - 1st Round - 7th overall

[Primus Porcus]

Digesting this into some macro points and correct me if I am misreading you.

A. Rivera's bad drafting goes beyond his one trade down. I agree.

B. At different points in the draft there are better possibilities than who Rivera took. Agree, too. I was actually on ES made fun of for overreacting when they skipped on Gonzalez for Forbes. Darrisaw is the player I wanted instead of Davis, etc.

C. The more players you can pick, the more players you land. I actually agree with this and big time so.

D. Your conclusion is that A and B and C is somewhat proof that it really doesn't matter where you pick, it matters who you pick and there is always a player every round that's a hit. So why not us being the FO landing that hit round by round. And adding all those lottery picks improve the odds of hits.

So I agree with the premise of these points. Mind you, I've said multiple times I'd be good with a trade down if it includes a 2027 first rounder. But why wouldn't I for a 2nd rounder. Why?

A. It's simple i do think in many drafts and on first blush this one too, top half of the first round is easier to find top tier talent. Go through the 2022 draft. I like that one because you have three years for it to play out. You got some elite players going before Washington picked. Hutchinson. Gardner. Hamilton. Garrett. And some great ones like Walker, Drake London, Olave. Jordan Davis is good. Go through our pick 16 through 32, some nice ones you mention Lloyd, he's been good, actually started off meh, but had a good season this year but not an elite player. Karlaftis is a nice player, not a barn burner, and these are the BEST players in that 2nd half of that draft. Quay Walker is decent, nothing great. Some good players, some meh, some busts. You didn't find elite. I am not saying you can't find elite but its harder.

B. If judge every draft in every round by this best picks in each round -- with the idea of why can't be our team at every turn? It's just not realistic. Yeah there is going to be a great player picked in EVERY round. But name that GM who consistently is the one on the right side of all of that?

C. this is my larger point I don't disagree that we will get more good to solid players if we trade down. Heck I am the dude here who says that Peters didn't bomb the 2024 draft. If you compare his picks with the likelihood of success -- I gather you reject that premise of percentages but plenty use that metric I am not on an island with the success ratio per round, its commonly used. Peters did fine. 50% of 2nd rounders fail. You could reject that idea but just think about all the 2nd rounders we've had or take any random team and go through like 10 years of their picks. Sinnot and Sainristill contribute. Newton less so. McCaffrey for a late 3rd rounder is a good pick. Coleman good pick. MaGee for a 5th rounder -- good pick. Jean-Bapitise for a 7th rounder is a good pick.

If the idea is lets load up this roster with more McCaffreys, Macgees, Sainristil's and we can do so better by trading down. I 100% agree. But what's working against this thought for me is something Chris Cooley once said, the power of an elite player goes beyond the actual player. It has a ripple effect on the rest of the team. Playing next to an elite player often makes the other players better. Teams have to game plan for that dude and it takes focus off of someone else and helps that player unleash. The elite player often makes the big play in the big moment. It increases the confidence of other players to have that dude, etc.

Myles Garrett is obviously lol and extreme example but yesterday the joke was the Steelers were so focused on stopping him they changed their game plan for the worse and it contributed to a loss. We know this because just about every team we play against has a guy like that and we talk about said player the week leading to a game. Jayden was asked about the Ravens once and he goes wow they were the most confusing defense he's ever faced with Kyle Hamilton lining up everywhere. How do we stop Barkley and Jalen Carter. On and on and on.

I want a player like that more than adding good players. If Peters thinks that player exists if they trade down to 13 or whatever, I am on board. But the idea of me just endoring the idea of its always better to trade down and to say that Peters, Shanny, Cerrato, Rivera, McClougan all failed royally doing the same is because they were all incompetent, I am not in agreement. And lol, if I play along with that if Peters was fooled once, why couldn't he be fooled again? And if its that simple why isn't everyone trading down? Howie Roseman of late seems to like to trade up for dudes he covets.

I think you're picking up what i'm laying down..... but i'll just add that it's hard as hell to look at anything right now and determine whether trading down or staying put is the right call. That question can't even remotely be answered until we're on the clock. Who is available will be the biggest factor in that choice.

Yes you're right Rivera's bad drafting wasn't because of his trade back. Even with the trade back, the talent was still there and he missed it. I want to believe my GM wont miss it.... the day I pre-determine that my GM is so bad that he needs to have the highest draft pick possible because it's 'more' likely he gets lucky, then we're lost already.

as far as point 'D', yes i agree nobody can expect to always knock it out of the park, but I also think there needs to be an adjustment to expectations. The expectations of a 6/7 round pick of what should be considered a successful pick, at times, is out of line. I look at those picks as being a fringe Camp Cut who starts out making the team on ST. Seeing a guy like JCM seems like a massive win in the 7th round already.

Your point is valid if the argument isn't having more choices, and it's more about having a shot at elite talent, so maybe i was looking at the conversation the wrong way. I've had a lot of conversations that put the emphasis on a higher pick being better because there's more players to choose from, and my argument has always been, if the guy making the choice isn't good enough, the number of choices is irrelevant. It goes the same for trading back and having more picks..

now to pivot a bit to your later point...

I'm with you on needing more impact, but I also think you have to build your floor before you build your roof. Elite players go to bad teams and rarely do they actually turn them around quickly. Miles Garrett is a perfect example to this point. No that doesn't mean you pass on a guy like that, because we're clearly in a different position than the Browns are right now... just come back to my point from above. Take the right guy at the right time. If you're top 5 and you can get a difference maker, you do it. If there isn't a difference maker for you, and someone wants to dance, trade back and recoup value. Don't pigeonhole yourself into anything (not saying YOU are specifically doing it... just have seen a lot of binary arguments about 'do x' or 'do y' without much flexibility)

 

[Darrell Green Fan]

Me, too. I loved the theortical process of trading down, especially as a draft geek who dives deep into the draft - i love myself some 2nd rounders.

But over the years, two things have changed my thoughts.

A. losing every trade down, regime to regime for decades now. And big loses including to our division rivals.

B. Is there a team in the NFL worse at landing elite players? I am sick of playing teams where we worry about this dude and that dude and other teams have no worries about any player from this team.

I am not dreaming anymore of the rare hits from the mid first round for this team like a Jonathan Allen. I was giddy when they drafted Allen. But I am dreaming bigger now. Why can't we have a Malik Nabers or Aidan Hutinchson or Bijan Robinson, etc.

Why can't we have a James Bond? Why does it always have to be a high end Robin at best instead of Batman? Our division rivals have more Batmans. We just got one.

I think we are all guilty of falling in love with our draft picks. Even with Ron's picks. I didn't love the J. Davis pick but saw a LB with speed and became intrigued. Every trade down makes us fell like Jimmy Johnson just loaded us up with young players that will turn our team around.

It just doesn't happen that way. And I've come to the belief that when your team trades back that is not always good news, it probably means the players they really liked are off the board.

 

[Conn]

That's Sinnott.

I don’t think it’s obvious that Sinnott has a ton of skill after the catch. He’s rumbled forward a couple times this season but he looks extremely unathletic on those plays (which I didn’t expect. He’s not agile at all). It worried me to see, honestly.

 

[skinsinparadise]

I think you're picking up what i'm laying down..... but i'll just add that it's hard as hell to look at anything right now and determine whether trading down or staying put is the right call. That question can't even remotely be answered until we're on the clock. Who is available will be the biggest factor in that choice.

Agree. I have said the same to RWJ who is pushing the trade down. I got to see how it plays out. If they are trading down 2-3 picks and great players are on the board still -- do it. But to me trading down isn't some reflex homerun. I used to think it was. The Shanny 2011 draft is my favorite example. He kept trading down it and it was a blast for someone like me who likes to dive into the draft. It didn't age well but it was fun at the time. I've grown much more cynical about it.

Yes you're right Rivera's bad drafting wasn't because of his trade back. Even with the trade back, the talent was still there and he missed it. I want to believe my GM wont miss it.... the day I pre-determine that my GM is so bad that he needs to have the highest draft pick possible because it's 'more' likely he gets lucky, then we're lost already.

Am half way on this point. In theory there are always great players in every round, but you will rarely find the same team consistently nailing that talent in each round. So it could be Washington getting Pickens. But its not some slam dunk drill where it should happen. I recall for example some of the personalty issues about Pickens was part of the narrative in that draft. Is your GM going to ignore it and let it ride? Maybe. But its not a no brainer. With the power of hindsight it becomes that. And we remember our hits more than our misses.

as far as point 'D', yes i agree nobody can expect to always knock it out of the park, but I also think there needs to be an adjustment to expectations. The expectations of a 6/7 round pick of what should be considered a successful pick, at times, is out of line. I look at those picks as being a fringe Camp Cut who starts out making the team on ST. Seeing a guy like JCM seems like a massive win in the 7th round already.

Agree.

I'm with you on needing more impact, but I also think you have to build your floor before you build your roof. Elite players go to bad teams and rarely do they actually turn them around quickly. Miles Garrett is a perfect example to this point. No that doesn't mean you pass on a guy like that, because we're clearly in a different position than the Browns are right now... just come back to my point from above. Take the right guy at the right time. If you're top 5 and you can get a difference maker, you do it. If there isn't a difference maker for you, and someone wants to dance, trade back and recoup value. Don't pigeonhole yourself into anything (not saying YOU are specifically doing it... just have seen a lot of binary arguments about 'do x' or 'do y' without much flexibility)

I agree if there is a guy who they think can make a difference do it. If not don't.

Specifically to this team. IMO we got the QB. We got an O line. We got likely around 110 million in cap room.

Lets take the WRs, RBs. I think we got solid players right now.

I don't love Will Harris but is he solid? Sure. Luvu? yeah he's good not great. Amos looking to be good not great. Armstrong -- good player. Payne, Kinlaw decent.

They need IMO an elite and or great player. I am not looking for the next Daron Payne and lets say even a semi successful 2nd rounder like Sainristil. I want a Hutchinson or Kyle Hamilon or Jamar Chase or something close to it.

Ala PFF's point in their mock today

Post-Week 17 Mock Draft: Las Vegas Raiders, New York Jets select new franchise quarterbacks

Las Vegas resets at quarterback by landing Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza, a poised and efficient passer whose ball security stands in sharp contrast to the Raiders’ recent struggles at the position. New York follows by adding Arizona State wide receiver Jordyn Tyson, giving Jaxson Dart...

www.pff.com

7. Washington Commanders: S Caleb Downs, Ohio State​

Regardless of the position, the Commanders must add star power on defense this offseason. Ohio State safety Caleb Downs is arguably the best defensive player in college football. Downs has earned at least an 83.8 PFF overall grade in each of his three college seasons. His awareness and versatility make him a seamless fit in any defense, and Washington would be wise to select him as the new leader of its secondary if available.

 

[RWJ]

Agree. I have said the same to RWJ who is pushing the trade down. I got to see how it plays out. If they are trading down 2-3 picks and great players are on the board still -- do it. But to me trading down isn't some reflex homerun. I used to think it was. The Shanny 2011 draft is my favorite example. He kept trading down it and it was a blast for someone like me who likes to dive into the draft. It didn't age well but it was fun at the time. I've grown much more cynical about it.


Am half way on this point. In theory there are always great players in every round, but you will rarely find the same team consistently nailing that talent in each round. So it could be Washington getting Pickens. But its not some slam dunk drill where it should happen. I recall for example some of the personalty issues about Pickens was part of the narrative in that draft. Is your GM going to ignore it and let it ride? Maybe. But its not a no brainer. With the power of hindsight it becomes that. And we remember our hits more than our misses.



Agree.



I agree if there is a guy who they think can make a difference do it. If not don't.

Specifically to this team. IMO we got the QB. We got an O line. We got likely around 110 million in cap room.

Lets take the WRs, RBs. I think we got solid players right now.

I don't love Will Harris but is he solid? Sure. Luvu? yeah he's good not great. Amos looking to be good not great. Armstrong -- good player. Payne, Kinlaw decent.

They need IMO an elite and or great player. I am not looking for the next Daron Payne and lets say even a semi successful 2nd rounder like Sainristil. I want a Hutchinson or Kyle Hamilon or Jamar Chase or something close to it.

Ala PFF's point in their mock today

Post-Week 17 Mock Draft: Las Vegas Raiders, New York Jets select new franchise quarterbacks

Las Vegas resets at quarterback by landing Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza, a poised and efficient passer whose ball security stands in sharp contrast to the Raiders’ recent struggles at the position. New York follows by adding Arizona State wide receiver Jordyn Tyson, giving Jaxson Dart...

www.pff.com

7. Washington Commanders: S Caleb Downs, Ohio State​

Regardless of the position, the Commanders must add star power on defense this offseason. Ohio State safety Caleb Downs is arguably the best defensive player in college football. Downs has earned at least an 83.8 PFF overall grade in each of his three college seasons. His awareness and versatility make him a seamless fit in any defense, and Washington would be wise to select him as the new leader of its secondary if available.

You know me, SIP. I like you am a draft junkie! It's in the blood. I am running simulation after simulation at this time. I understand your assessments and agree to a point but I give a bit more ground on a trade down than the 2 or 3 spots, let's say around 6 spots. There will be a player that I/we like there and it allows us to pick up the 2nd round choice we desperately miss from the Tunsil trade.

 

[Primus Porcus]

Agree. I have said the same to RWJ who is pushing the trade down. I got to see how it plays out. If they are trading down 2-3 picks and great players are on the board still -- do it. But to me trading down isn't some reflex homerun. I used to think it was. The Shanny 2011 draft is my favorite example. He kept trading down it and it was a blast for someone like me who likes to dive into the draft. It didn't age well but it was fun at the time. I've grown much more cynical about it.


Am half way on this point. In theory there are always great players in every round, but you will rarely find the same team consistently nailing that talent in each round. So it could be Washington getting Pickens. But its not some slam dunk drill where it should happen. I recall for example some of the personalty issues about Pickens was part of the narrative in that draft. Is your GM going to ignore it and let it ride? Maybe. But its not a no brainer. With the power of hindsight it becomes that. And we remember our hits more than our misses.



Agree.



I agree if there is a guy who they think can make a difference do it. If not don't.

Specifically to this team. IMO we got the QB. We got an O line. We got likely around 110 million in cap room.

Lets take the WRs, RBs. I think we got solid players right now.

I don't love Will Harris but is he solid? Sure. Luvu? yeah he's good not great. Amos looking to be good not great. Armstrong -- good player. Payne, Kinlaw decent.

They need IMO an elite and or great player. I am not looking for the next Daron Payne and lets say even a semi successful 2nd rounder like Sainristil. I want a Hutchinson or Kyle Hamilon or Jamar Chase or something close to it.

Ala PFF's point in their mock today

Post-Week 17 Mock Draft: Las Vegas Raiders, New York Jets select new franchise quarterbacks

Las Vegas resets at quarterback by landing Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza, a poised and efficient passer whose ball security stands in sharp contrast to the Raiders’ recent struggles at the position. New York follows by adding Arizona State wide receiver Jordyn Tyson, giving Jaxson Dart...

www.pff.com

7. Washington Commanders: S Caleb Downs, Ohio State​

Regardless of the position, the Commanders must add star power on defense this offseason. Ohio State safety Caleb Downs is arguably the best defensive player in college football. Downs has earned at least an 83.8 PFF overall grade in each of his three college seasons. His awareness and versatility make him a seamless fit in any defense, and Washington would be wise to select him as the new leader of its secondary if available.

No argument here... especially with the understanding that nobody bat's .1000. It's not possible, going back to my original point about all the factors. What i will say though is that the minute you've lost the confidence in your GM so much so that they have to rely on Luck over skill... that's problematic. Finding players in the draft is not an exact science, no different than building a roster. If there was a singular way to do it, everyone would do it. The human element in all of this is the biggest factor in success and failure.

 

[skinsinparadise]

You know me, SIP. I like you am a draft junkie! It's in the blood. I am running simulation after simulation at this time. I understand your assessments and agree to a point but I give a bit more ground on a trade down than the 2 or 3 spots, let's say around 6 spots. There will be a player that I/we like there and it allows us to pick up the 2nd round choice we desperately miss from the Tunsil trade.

If they end up picking 5 and can trade down to 8, something like that, I am good with it. If they are picking 7 and trade down to 16 at the moment that feels nauseating to me if all they got was a 2nd rounder. I'd want a 2027 first.

Among the players I've watched:

Reese
Tate
Downs
Bailey
Love

Are the ones that intrigue me and believe might end up elite. Bailey I am a little less sure of as opposed to the other 4. I like Tyson, am trying to love him, I am not there yet.

I am not smart enough to figure out Bain. He is a beast if I am judging him purely on his play. But I can't figure out if an outlier as to length like him can succeed in the NFL. Outliers often don't.

Trading down Styles, Lemon intrigue me. On first blush though neither strike me elite. Styles to me is like Tyson in that I like him a lot but can't quite fall heads over heals but lol am working on it.

 

[Darrell Green Fan]

The more I read about Downs the more I want him to be the pick. There is so much momentum I'm not convinced he will be there at 7.

 

[skinsinparadise]

The more I read about Downs the more I want him to be the pick. There is so much momentum I'm not convinced he will be there at 7.

Quan now multiple times benched for blowing his assignments. Replacing him with Downs could be transformative.

 

[RWJ]

If they end up picking 5 and can trade down to 8, something like that, I am good with it. If they are picking 7 and trade down to 16 at the moment that feels nauseating to me if all they got was a 2nd rounder. I'd want a 2027 first.

Among the players I've watched:

Reese
Tate
Downs
Bailey
Love

Are the ones that intrigue me and believe might end up elite. Bailey I am a little less sure of as opposed to the other 4. I like Tyson, am trying to love him, I am not there yet.

I am not smart enough to figure out Bain. He is a beast if I am judging him purely on his play. But I can't figure out if an outlier as to length like him can succeed in the NFL. Outliers often don't.

Trading down Styles, Lemon intrigue me. On first blush though neither strike me elite. Styles to me is like Tyson in that I like him a lot but can't quite fall heads over heals but lol am working on it.

I wouldn't move to #16 but to #11 and no further than #13 would be the limit. I believe trading down even to #13 lands them an elite player of need.

Quan now multiple times benched for blowing his assignments. Replacing him with Downs could be transformative.

Two drafts. One with trades the other straight up. Using MD DB simulator. The straight up on is actually better than the one with trades but I still like the idea of trading down. We won't really know until the draft and when we're in position. Here's what I got:

With trades:

Without trades:

 

[skinsinparadise]

I wouldn't move to #16 but to #11 and no further than #13 would be the limit. I believe trading down even to #13 lands them an elite player of need.

Two drafts. One with trades the other straight up. Using MD DB simulator. The straight up on is actually better than the one with trades but I still like the idea of trading down. We won't really know until the draft and when we're in position. Here's what I got:

With trades:

View attachment 13757

Without trades:

View attachment 13758

Maybe depends on who is there and how things unfold.

There is also a decent shot no one offers a trade.

 

[clskinsfan]

There is also a decent shot no one offers a trade.

Exactly. Takes 2 to tango. And there isnt a player I would trade up for in this draft imo.

 

[0rder 0f 0ut]

Quan is my least favorite player currently. Getting him off the field would enough of a bonus that I wouldn't have any issue taking a Safety early.

But is Downs best suited to the Will Harris role?

 

[Riggo44]

I don’t think it’s obvious that Sinnott has a ton of skill after the catch. He’s rumbled forward a couple times this season but he looks extremely unathletic on those plays (which I didn’t expect. He’s not agile at all). It worried me to see, honestly.

Watching Bullock's analysis of Sinnott, he didn't look that unathletic to me

 

[method man]

I think we are all guilty of falling in love with our draft picks. Even with Ron's picks. I didn't love the J. Davis pick but saw a LB with speed and became intrigued. Every trade down makes us fell like Jimmy Johnson just loaded us up with young players that will turn our team around.

It just doesn't happen that way. And I've come to the belief that when your team trades back that is not always good news, it probably means the players they really liked are off the board.

It’s the press conference after and the local media finding draft guys sans Thor Nystrom who claim to love our drafts. Watch out for the “selling” that goes on there.

 

[Riggo44]

Not sure how anyone can look at that run by Robinson and turn their nose up at Love.

 

[JPPT1974]

So much promise as really a huge letdown for 2025. Need a healthy Jayden and building around him.

 

[Primus Porcus]

Watching Bullock's analysis of Sinnott, he didn't look that unathletic to me

Because he's not....

He's 6'4 - 245. Not everyone out there, especially TEs, glide. The point is he is able to separate at an NFL level. Why he hasn't been used to this point is still a conundrum, but it is what it is i guess.

 

[Riggo44]

I'm not saying he's going to be LaPorta, but he can be a solid, two way TE. Hes never dropped a pass either

 

[Riggo44]

Watching Xavier Watts in this game makes me get very excited about Caleb Downs too