The Sky is not Falling Thread

[Riggo44]

Beyond the injuries. The 2nd most unluckiest team in the NFL this year

I didn't need to see that chart to know every fumble bounces away from us, every time...what's telling though--the Eagles with dropped passes, given how much their fans bitched about Smith dropping that pass against us last year...

 

[Riggo44]

Tom Schad had an interesting point on Keim's podcast--despite the injuries, we're essentially three plays away from being .500: fumble vs. the Bears, missed FGs vs. the Dolphins, and the 2 pt. conversion vs. the Broncos. Yes, the losses were ugly, but still, I don't think we're are a 3-win team--just insanely injured and unlucky, plus Joe Whitt.

 

[Primus Porcus]

Tom Schad had an interesting point on Keim's podcast--despite the injuries, we're essentially three plays away from being .500: fumble vs. the Bears, missed FGs vs. the Dolphins, and the 2 pt. conversion vs. the Broncos. Yes, the losses were ugly, but still, I don't think we're are a 3-win team--just insanely injured and unlucky, plus Joe Whitt.

I've been trying to look at things this way all season. The difference between winning and losing is so much closer than scoreboards generally imply. There are clearly examples of blow outs that a team gets dominated, but so often, a tipped ball, dropped ball, or blown call extends a drive that pushes momentum causing a game to fall out of reach.

Look at the game this year vs Dallas. 2nd quarter, we drive down and score with less than a minute to go, and we're getting the kickoff to start the 2nd half. This brings the score to 20-15 and we're flying high. Pickens makes a damn near impossible catch along the sideline, and the flood gates open up. Dallas scores and the air is out of the balloon. I am confident if we don't give up that drive at the end of half the game goes different.

 

[skinsinparadise]

Tom Schad had an interesting point on Keim's podcast--despite the injuries, we're essentially three plays away from being .500: fumble vs. the Bears, missed FGs vs. the Dolphins, and the 2 pt. conversion vs. the Broncos. Yes, the losses were ugly, but still, I don't think we're are a 3-win team--just insanely injured and unlucky, plus Joe Whitt.

It feels absolutely like a one off.

The good news is it exposed the warts in a way that it might not have otherwise: specifically to Joe Whitt, you can't have just one legit outside WR, and you got to take DE seriously among other things.

 

[Faithful Fan]

Sure, if a few plays turned out differently than they did in the real world, then we would be middling instead of terrible, and if my aunt had a penis she would be my uncle. Reality is that we are what our record says we are, 3-9, the 6th worst record in the NFL with the 8th worst point differential.

We are also 19-27 over the last three seasons, and roughly .400 over the last 10, 20, 30 years. This season really has me thinking 2024 was more of an outlier than a turn around. I’m not getting my hopes up again until I see some sustained success.

 

[bowhunter]

Sure, if a few plays turned out differently than they did in the real world, then we would be middling instead of terrible, and if my aunt had a penis she would be my uncle.

I'm pretty sure she at least had your Uncles

We are also 19-27 over the last three seasons, and roughly .400 over the last 10, 20, 30 years. This season really has me thinking 2024 was more of an outlier than a turn around. I’m not getting my hopes up again until I see some sustained success.

I think we all said the same thing LAST Year lol. When you're hungry even tofu seems palatable

 

[skinsinparadise]

Sure, if a few plays turned out differently than they did in the real world, then we would be middling instead of terrible, and if my aunt had a penis she would be my uncle. Reality is that we are what our record says we are, 3-9, the 6th worst record in the NFL with the 8th worst point differential.

We are also 19-27 over the last three seasons, and roughly .400 over the last 10, 20, 30 years. This season really has me thinking 2024 was more of an outlier than a turn around. I’m not getting my hopes up again until I see some sustained success.

I'd be as concerned, if this was a normal season -- normal schedule, normal injuries. Yeah who cares if they played some tight games when its sunny outside and 70 degrees. But yeah I do think it matters when you do it in a blizzard.

But yeah if it was normal context that it would suck that Jayden, Terry and crew couldn't repeat last years magic and fell back to earth.

It would suck Jayden isn't a franchise QB -- he's just another Wentz, Heinicke, Howell, etc. The poor suckers have no cap room to improve their roster, etc. Quinn is a buffoon. Peters is just a cap guy like Bruce posing as a personnel guy and what's the point because Harris would override him anyway and make the pick.

If you told me before the season, it would be mostly Mariotta throwing to dudes like Chris Moore, Robbie Chosen and J. Lane -- the fall off wouldn't shock me one whit.

They just get one weapon back against Denver, the best team in the AFC, again without Jayden, and they were one batted ball froim beating them.

To each their own but my level of concern that this is a new norm is a 0 out of 100. If you convinced me that Mariotta is our new QB from now on, and they are moving on from Terry and I should learn to embrace Chris Moore as the top X Wr from now on, I'd share the pessimism.

As Logan Paulsen aptly put it they have had to play left handed most of the season. If they were playing right handed, this would suck big time -- in that case, we got our soliders and got our asses kicked. But we don't. They lead the league in injuries. #1. And the injuries are to the best players. How did Cincy do this year without Burrow?

This wasn't some annoying rain interferring with the season, it was a hurricane.

 

[Chris]

I make quite the distinction between ‘best team’ and ‘best record’, especially in the AFC so far this year. I believe the playoffs will prove me correct.

 

[SkinsNumberOne]

I make quite the distinction between ‘best team’ and ‘best record’, especially in the AFC so far this year. I believe the playoffs will prove me correct.

Yes I agree; to be a tier-1 team, you need to have proven it. Regular season success does not make a tier-1 team.

For tiering, we never really talk about records as much as true league-level success. No division success. It's all about your ability to make the playoffs consistently and your ability to make or win the Super Bowl.

This year's Commanders could have cemented tier-2 for a time, but that didn't happen. At least, this is how I tier the teams - by their consistent success. There are too many one-off years otherwise which end up being meaningless in terms of telling how strong a team is year in and year out.

 

[SkinsNumberOne]

If you told me before the season, it would be mostly Mariotta throwing to dudes like Chris Moore, Robbie Chosen and J. Lane -- the fall off wouldn't shock me one whit.

I don't get why we always talk like this was the whole season. I agree that there were tons of injuries and much of the season was like this - but there were also games where we had some of our receivers, and some games with our starting QB, and the offense wasn't clicking that great. If this team wants to win the Super Bowl, it has to play better more consistently (especially if that is where the investment goes) and letting them completely off the hook in those games isn't going to be helpful.

Then this season truly becomes a lost season.. Whether fans are doing this or not, I hope AP has the sense not to. This season still needs to be used for evaluation of this team's players and coaches. You need coaches who can put any team in a position to do their best.

The truest "force multiplier" of any team is the coaching staff. I think the Rams draft well but I think it's also telling when they can take players off of other teams and make "something" out of them. It's a good sign for them and probably a pretty key reason on their ability to be competitors every year, making the playoffs at a minimum (tier-2).

 

[Riggo44]

This season still needs to be used for evaluation of this team's players and coaches.

Every season is an evaluation for players and coaches.

 

[Riggo44]

It would suck Jayden isn't a franchise QB -- he's just another Wentz, Heinicke, Howell, etc. The poor suckers have no cap room to improve their roster, etc. Quinn is a buffoon. Peters is just a cap guy like Bruce posing as a personnel guy and what's the point because Harris would override him anyway and make the pick.

There is absolutely no comparison to what happened prior to July 20, 2023 and this year. None.

 

[skinsinparadise]

There is absolutely no comparison to what happened prior to July 20, 2023 and this year. None.

Exactly. We got a new owner. New GM. New HC. Franchise QB.

Can a season fall apart when injuries are insane? Can a winner look like a loser all of a sudden? Of course look at SF last season. Cincy this season. How did Dallas look without Dak last season? You lose your QB for half the season, his two top weapons, starting RB, three top edges, two starting CBs, on and on, yeah lol things are going to get out of hand.

 

[skinsinparadise]

I don't get why we always talk like this was the whole season. I agree that there were tons of injuries and much of the season was like this - but there were also games where we had some of our receivers, and some games with our starting QB, and the offense wasn't clicking that great. If this team wants to win the Super Bowl, it has to play better more consistently (especially if that is where the investment goes) and letting them completely off the hook in those games isn't going to be helpful.

Then this season truly becomes a lost season.. Whether fans are doing this or not, I hope AP has the sense not to. This season still needs to be used for evaluation of this team's players and coaches. You need coaches who can put any team in a position to do their best.

The truest "force multiplier" of any team is the coaching staff. I think the Rams draft well but I think it's also telling when they can take players off of other teams and make "something" out of them. It's a good sign for them and probably a pretty key reason on their ability to be competitors every year, making the playoffs at a minimum (tier-2).

And they started 3-2. Not 0-5. Injuries became bad smack in the middle of the GB game and just kept snowballing.

As far as there were other issues. No doubt. I was one of the rare people here who was worried at the start of the season, I expected some setbacks for reasons I outlined at the time.

But in spite of those issues, if they had normal injuries, I'd guess they'd have had a 10-7 season, worse case 9-8. Nothing crazy bad. And if they had a cupcake schedule ala the Patriots, they'd have likely repeated last years record or close enough.

 

[Riggo44]

Exactly. We got a new owner. New GM. New HC. Franchise QB.

Can a season fall apart when injuries are insane? Can a winner look like a loser all of a sudden? Of course look at SF last season. Cincy this season. How did Dallas look without Dak last season? You lose your QB for half the season, his two top weapons, starting RB, three top edges, two starting CBs, on and on, yeah lol things are going to get out of hand.

Kyle Shanahan went to the Super Bowl his third year as HC--he had losing seasons the other three of his first four years in San Fransisco, totaling 16 wins in those three years. The 6 win fall off in 2020 was driven by injuries--Garappolo, Kittle, Samuel, and Mostert all missed at least half the year. Sounds familiar, doesn't it?

The Eagles won just 4 games 3 years after winning the Super Bowl--driven mainly by injuries. 2 years later they were back in the Super Bowl with largely the same roster.

 

[Riggo44]

And they started 3-2. Not 0-5. Injuries became bad smack in the middle of the GB game and just kept snowballing.

As far as there were other issues. No doubt. I was one of the rare people here who was worried at the start of the season, I expected some setbacks for reasons I outlined at the time.

But in spite of those issues, if they had normal injuries, I'd guess they'd have had a 10-7 season, worse case 9-8. Nothing crazy bad. And if they had a cupcake schedule ala the Patriots, they'd have likely repeated last years record or close enough.

And, despite the litany of injuries and 0.00 snaps from the starting offense at all this year--STILL--we have been rather competent on that side of the ball. I posted this from Galdi a few days back, and it bears repeating, since some people seem to think Kingsbury isn't doing well:



That's almost a top-10 in major metrics with practice squad castoffs.

 

[Chris]

The framing of an argument that minimizes injuries (therefore overall talent) combined with ignoring or overlooking the difference in schedules and then placing a microscope on the HC/OC/GM is, well, pretty damn questionable to me.

Could things have been better? Sure. Could things always be better? Again, sure.

 

[skinsinparadise]

And, despite the litany of injuries and 0.00 snaps from the starting offense at all this year--STILL--we have been rather competent on that side of the ball. I posted this from Galdi a few days back, and it bears repeating, since some people seem to think Kingsbury isn't doing well:



That's almost a top-10 in major metrics with practice squad castoffs.

Yeah absolutely. The offense has been decent, mostly with a backup QB, and receivers off the street. The defense clearly handcuffed by a bad defensive coordinator and injuries and lack of talent.

Next season if injuries are normal, not crazy. It should be fun. They got the franchise QB, got the O line. Add some talent to defense, and have Quinn or add a new D coordinator and this team should be really good.

For the critics who think this is a homer take, I'll start with plenty of national observors with no ties to the team feel the same.

When you got the franchise QB expect to win. There will be outlier seasons especially when the QB is out -- but the new normal should be winning.

 

[Chris]

Prior to last night the national observers were collectively slobbering over Dallas. 🤣

 

[skinsinparadise]

Prior to last night the national observers were collectively slobbering over Dallas. 🤣

They love Dallas. Sadly Dallas = ratings. Ratings = money.

It's nauseating how much Dallas gets coverage on sports talk shows among other things.