The All Things Terry Thread

[Chris]

There are supporting facts on both sides to support whatever argument you want, but the overwhelming truth is that this team going forward is better with Terry Mclaurin on it at the right price.

And therein lies the rub.

 

[Chris]

Have you priced a Lamborghini recently? Maybe 1.5 used ones, or one new one. Inflation man.

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www.lamborghiniwashington.com

Fair enough. How about 10 2025 Corvettes? Though I know he is too young for them. 😉

 

[burgold]

I was thinking about this argument that AJ Brown was OBVIOUSLY better than Terry and it occurred to me that we have a good window into that. We can look at how AJ performed when he wasn't on a Superbowl team. Back when he was on a team without a worldclass O Line and a super stacked roster who was he? Well, Here below are his Titan's stats. As you can see they are good, but they are not mindblowing. In fact, they're pretty close to Terry's though his yards per catch is a little better which just feeds into the argument that the team really shapes perception. If AJ wasn't on a team with an all world running back, the league's best o-line, a defense that keeps getting the ball back quickly, a number 2 receiver and tight end who are the upper half of the league (heck, someone in this thread said their number 2 receiver was the fourth best receiver in the NFC East) then what would AJ's stat line look like? If defenses didn't have to spend so much energy trying to stop Barkley, having to respect Hurts legs, etc. I will argue that Mclaurin's stats are hurt worse by being the only weapon other teams were scared of then AJ needing to share the ball more. No one was scared of BRob hurting them. No one was scared of Ertz's run after the catch. People were a little scared of Daniels' legs.... and this was the best offense Terry's been on in five years. A year where the team had no one to fear, but him.

And I just checked, the Titans were a far better team than the Commaders/Redskins in those years. The titans were 32-17. Their worst year was 9-7. By contrast, Washington was 17-32 (ironic) with their best year being 7-10. So, AJ was always on a better team with presumably better talent/play around him.

2021 2021	Titans	63 63	869 869	13.8 13.8	57 57	5 5	10 10	5.0 5.0
2020 2020	Titans	70 70	1,075 1,075	15.4 15.4	73 73	11 11	0 0	- -
2019 2019	Titans	52 52	1,051 1,051	20.2 20.2	91 91	8 8	60 60	20.0

 

[skinsinparadise]

I heard Logan and Hoffman talk about Metcalf as a comparison, but one of them referenced how much of a physical speciman Metcalf is, and then perhaps is an edge over Terry and he's 2 years and change younger.

While I've watched a lot of Ceedee, I haven't done the same for Metcalf, so I was just assuming Terry had better stats. But actually, nope. They almost have identical stats. DK with the better YPC and TD numbers. Terry by a hair better catch number and yards. Neither ever hitting 100 catches but with DK coming closer with 90.

Do you factor potential and age though? that's what they were referencing in the podcast. Most would. But playing along, as they mentioned, DK's contract is basically a 2 year 30 million contract if you ignore the fluff. I'd be OK with that and pander to Terry by ignoring the age and potential of the player. I don't get the impression though he would considering multiple reporters said they believe he wants north of 30. Rappoport said north of 30. And Nikki from the WP on Standig's podcast, she heard that Terry sees Metcalf as the starting point in a negotiation if I heard it riight.

I am guessing Terry's side wants the team then to start at 30. They start with something like 36. And they meet in the middle at 33.

I suspect what really happens is the team starts at 26 or something like that. Terry's side is at 36 or something like that. Hence stories about both sides been stubborn about where they are and are world's apart.
Eventually the team lets say goes up to 28. Terry's side goes down to 33. And they meet in the middle at 30.

Considering Metcalf, who some say was overpaid is basically getting 30 a year. I think it would be ridiculous to pay Terry more than him. Their stats are just about identical (I didn't realize that, I thought Terry's was better) yet Metcalf is youngerand more freakish than Terry. I'd put more money on Metcalf holding up at 29 than I would Terry at 32.

 

[burgold]

It's funny. My impression of Metcalf was always that he was a physical freak and a bit of an underachiever. Maybe I'm just remembering stories of his rookie or early years? For whatever reason, Terry has always felt more consistent and a harder worker. Metcalf a guy who relies more on his natural gifts.

 

[skinsinparadise]

I was thinking about this argument that AJ Brown was OBVIOUSLY better than Terry and it occurred to me that we have a good window into that. We can look at how AJ performed when he wasn't on a Superbowl team. Back when he was on a team without a worldclass O Line and a super stacked roster who was he? Well, Here below are his Titan's stats. As you can see they are good, but they are not mindblowing. In fact, they're pretty close to Terry's though his yards per catch is a little better which just feeds into the argument that the team really shapes perception. If AJ wasn't on a team with an all world running back, the league's best o-line, a defense that keeps getting the ball back quickly, a number 2 receiver and tight end who are the upper half of the league (heck, someone in this thread said their number 2 receiver was the fourth best receiver in the NFC East) then what would AJ's stat line look like? If defenses didn't have to spend so much energy trying to stop Barkley, having to respect Hurts legs, etc. I will argue that Mclaurin's stats are hurt worse by being the only weapon other teams were scared of then AJ needing to share the ball more. No one was scared of BRob hurting them. No one was scared of Ertz's run after the catch. People were a little scared of Daniels' legs.... and this was the best offense Terry's been on in five years. A year where the team had no one to fear, but him.

And I just checked, the Titans were a far better team than the Commaders/Redskins in those years. The titans were 32-17. Their worst year was 9-7. By contrast, Washington was 17-32 (ironic) with their best year being 7-10. So, AJ was always on a better team with presumably better talent/play around him.

2021 2021	Titans	63 63	869 869	13.8 13.8	57 57	5 5	10 10	5.0 5.0
2020 2020	Titans	70 70	1,075 1,075	15.4 15.4	73 73	11 11	0 0	- -
2019 2019	Titans	52 52	1,051 1,051	20.2 20.2	91 91	8 8	60 60	20.0

AJ Brown's case IMO hurts Terry in multiple ways, including those numbers you posted. Don't get me wrong, those numbers are still very good, especially YPC -- what makes AJ Brown special is not just he's a physical possession WR type but also for a big dude he's a big play WR and deep threat and red zone threat.

He kept getting better. Is Terry going to keep getting better into his 30s? Judging by most other WRs, nope. More likely a decline than improvement.

I don't think it helps AJ to have D. Smith, and Barkley on his team. Less reps, less chances. While I can see some comping Terry to Metcalf. I don't see anyone doing it with AJ. I forgot which PFF guy said it but they think he's the best WR in the NFL. I wouldn't go that far myself. But he might be slam dunk the third best.

 

[skinsinparadise]

It's funny. My impression of Metcalf was always that he was a physical freak and a bit of an underachiever. Maybe I'm just remembering stories of his rookie or early years? For whatever reason, Terry has always felt more consistent and a harder worker. Metcalf a guy who relies more on his natural gifts.

Same with me. I get those that think DK is more freakish and still has more potential. But didn't realize how closely their production mirrored each other. If we went purely on stats, that's Terry's twin.

 

[burgold]

AJ Brown's case IMO hurts Terry in multiple ways, including those numbers you posted. Don't get me wrong, those numbers are still very good, especially YPC -- what makes AJ Brown special is not just he's a physical possession WR type but also for a big dude he's a big play WR and deep threat and red zone threat.

He kept getting better. Is Terry going to keep getting better into his 30s? Judging by most other WRs, nope. More likely a decline than improvement.

I don't think it helps AJ to have D. Smith, and Barkley on his team. Less reps, less chances. While I can see some comping Terry to Metcalf. I don't see anyone doing it with AJ. I forgot which PFF guy said it but they think he's the best WR in the NFL. I wouldn't go that far myself. But he might be slam dunk the third best.

The question I have though is did AJ actually get better or did he find himself in a better situation on a better team with better play calling, coaching, etc.

Probably a bit of both.

I do think Terry’s stats were suppressed by being on 3-13 teams with Scott Turner calling plays.

 

[DWinzit]

I heard Logan and Hoffman talk about Metcalf as a comparison, but one of them referenced how much of a physical speciman Metcalf is, and then perhaps is an edge over Terry and he's 2 years and change younger.

While I've watched a lot of Ceedee, I haven't done the same for Metcalf, so I was just assuming Terry had better stats. But actually, nope. They almost have identical stats. DK with the better YPC and TD numbers. Terry by a hair better catch number and yards. Neither ever hitting 100 catches but with DK coming closer with 90.

Do you factor potential and age though? that's what they were referencing in the podcast. Most would. But playing along, as they mentioned, DK's contract is basically a 2 year 30 million contract if you ignore the fluff. I'd be OK with that and pander to Terry by ignoring the age and potential of the player. I don't get the impression though he would considering multiple reporters said they believe he wants north of 30. Rappoport said north of 30. And Nikki from the WP on Standig's podcast, she heard that Terry sees Metcalf as the starting point in a negotiation if I heard it riight.

I am guessing Terry's side wants the team then to start at 30. They start with something like 36. And they meet in the middle at 33.

I suspect what really happens is the team starts at 26 or something like that. Terry's side is at 36 or something like that. Hence stories about both sides been stubborn about where they are and are world's apart.
Eventually the team lets say goes up to 28. Terry's side goes down to 33. And they meet in the middle at 30.

Considering Metcalf, who some say was overpaid is basically getting 30 a year. I think it would be ridiculous to pay Terry more than him. Their stats are just about identical (I didn't realize that, I thought Terry's was better) yet Metcalf is youngerand more freakish than Terry. I'd put more money on Metcalf holding up at 29 than I would Terry at 32.

This negotiation theory makes a lot of sense. It is a shame though that the timeline wasn't sped up to avoid the holdout and associated publicity. It sure feels like Terrys side being super stubborn forces the team to hold their line in the sand. Need give two sides in a good give and take negotiations.

I see DK and Terry being fairly equal in the grand scheme due to the age difference. AJ deserves the better contract regardless of what team his is on.

 

[Pokey]

Ben Standig made a point that Terry's worth to THIS team is higher than it might be on another organization. Which I found interesting.

 

[Anselmheifer]

Ben Standig made a point that Terry's worth to THIS team is higher than it might be on another organization. Which I found interesting.

This year, that’s probably true. But if his contract is bloated when his performance is no longer great, it could also hurt us more than other teams. Since we will be in a SB window and we are going to have the highest paid player in the league in 2 years.

Also, I don’t want to come off as a Terry hater. I think he’s great. An all time great Redskin/Commander, and one of the few things we had to cheer for a decade. He’s going in the ring of honor. I’d have no problem paying him $33 million a year, fully guaranteed, for the next 2 years. Maybe even 35.

 

[bifflog]

This year, that’s probably true. But if his contract is bloated when his performance is no longer great, it could also hurt us more than other teams. Since we will be in a SB window and we are going to have the highest paid player in the league in 2 years.

Also, I don’t want to come off as a Terry hater. I think he’s great. An all time great Redskin/Commander, and one of the few things we had to cheer for a decade. He’s going in the ring of honor. I’d have no problem paying him $33 million a year, fully guaranteed, for the next 2 years. Maybe even 35.

Exactly this, the one thing we can't do is have a huge number for Terry on the books for 2027. It is worth it, for those who are drawing a line in the sand at a particular AAV, for us to exceed that line for the next 2 years and maximize Jayden's rookie contract window, if we can then avoid that same level hit on the books in the first year of his 2nd contract window.

That is the line to walk here, how can we get Terry on something that pays him handsomely this season, and the next, with a marginal cap hit in 2027 that he will agree to. If you look at the free agent landscape the last couple seasons, do you feel like you would miss out if you spent more than you'd like on an in-house player like Terry? At WR, I don't think I do. The good ones don't hit FA, so what would you be doing with any savings to replace that production?

 

[Conn]

I was thinking about this argument that AJ Brown was OBVIOUSLY better than Terry and it occurred to me that we have a good window into that. We can look at how AJ performed when he wasn't on a Superbowl team. Back when he was on a team without a worldclass O Line and a super stacked roster who was he? Well, Here below are his Titan's stats. As you can see they are good, but they are not mindblowing. In fact, they're pretty close to Terry's though his yards per catch is a little better which just feeds into the argument that the team really shapes perception. If AJ wasn't on a team with an all world running back, the league's best o-line, a defense that keeps getting the ball back quickly, a number 2 receiver and tight end who are the upper half of the league (heck, someone in this thread said their number 2 receiver was the fourth best receiver in the NFC East) then what would AJ's stat line look like? If defenses didn't have to spend so much energy trying to stop Barkley, having to respect Hurts legs, etc. I will argue that Mclaurin's stats are hurt worse by being the only weapon other teams were scared of then AJ needing to share the ball more. No one was scared of BRob hurting them. No one was scared of Ertz's run after the catch. People were a little scared of Daniels' legs.... and this was the best offense Terry's been on in five years. A year where the team had no one to fear, but him.

And I just checked, the Titans were a far better team than the Commaders/Redskins in those years. The titans were 32-17. Their worst year was 9-7. By contrast, Washington was 17-32 (ironic) with their best year being 7-10. So, AJ was always on a better team with presumably better talent/play around him.

2021 2021	Titans	63 63	869 869	13.8 13.8	57 57	5 5	10 10	5.0 5.0
2020 2020	Titans	70 70	1,075 1,075	15.4 15.4	73 73	11 11	0 0	- -
2019 2019	Titans	52 52	1,051 1,051	20.2 20.2	91 91	8 8	60 60	20.0

AJB was clearly a stud being help back in a run heavy scheme for a stubborn coach (with a mediocre QB) back then, though. He had some soft tissue issues early in his career but he was clearly a star. From his first touch in the NFL nobody could understand why he fell to the 2nd round. Nobody on planet earth would take McLaurin over AJ Brown, homerism aside. Some stuff really is just easy via the eye test, as subjective as that is. His speed at his size and the way he pulls away with the ball in his hands is breathtaking. He’s a RZ threat. He’s a YAC threat. He can get deep and he can win contested catches. He really is a do-it all guy when he’s healthy (plus the age difference). He’s a true prototypical WR1.

 

[prodigy]

The question I have though is did AJ actually get better or did he find himself in a better situation on a better team with better play calling, coaching, etc.

Probably a bit of both.

I do think Terry’s stats were suppressed by being on 3-13 teams with Scott Turner calling plays.

ditto for DK. DK underperformed in a better QB and WR corps situation. DK is a tier below Terry.

 

[prodigy]

Same with me. I get those that think DK is more freakish and still has more potential. But didn't realize how closely their production mirrored each other. If we went purely on stats, that's Terry's twin.

I don't think DK has more potential. he is what he is. one or two trick pony that will age poorly once his speed breaks down. he is David Boston 2.0 but less dominating than Boston's 2 year stretch where he amassed great numbers.

Terry will be our Rod Smith.

edit: lol I might be proven egregiously wrong, in the end.

 

[skinzplay]

Showing up was to avoid amassing more fines, and as a PR move to affect fan sentiment. I don't like what I heard from #17 a couple weeks ago, and I don't like what he's saying now. Quite frankly, I want him shipped. Preferably to Cleveland or the Jets so he and Buddy Baker can feel really appreciated by those fine organizations. He's just not as good (or valuable) as he thinks he is. If I were Peters, I wouldn't even go above 28m. He was overpaid in that last extension.

 

[skinsinparadise]

The question I have though is did AJ actually get better or did he find himself in a better situation on a better team with better play calling, coaching, etc.

Probably a bit of both.

I do think Terry’s stats were suppressed by being on 3-13 teams with Scott Turner calling plays.

There is good and bad as to being surrounded by great players like the Eagles have. Its also a run heavy team. Fantasy football guys can speak better on it than me but in short Terry for example should benefit numbers wise for not having to share targets with Devonte Smith and Barkley, etc.

While Terry’s stats aren’t as good as AJ’s stats — if we watch them closely, I dont think anyone would take Terry over AJ. And some (not you) could say the eye test is subjective so our opinions on that do not matter. Maybe so, but then you got players, coaches, PFF on and on and on. And no one, zip, has Terry as AJ’s equal that i can recall. So I am gathering Terry will have a hard time convincing this FO otherwise.

 

[Chris]

AJ Brown scares me, Terry McLaurin does not. I’m not so sure that DCs need to game plan to take Terry away. They may, I’m just not so sure of it.

 

[bifflog]

Showing up was to avoid amassing more fines, and as a PR move to affect fan sentiment. I don't like what I heard from #17 a couple weeks ago, and I don't like what he's saying now. Quite frankly, I want him shipped. Preferably to Cleveland or the Jets so he and Buddy Baker can feel really appreciated by those fine organizations. He's just not as good (or valuable) as he thinks he is. If I were Peters, I wouldn't even go above 28m. He was overpaid in that last extension.

You really jonesing that hard for a 3rd and a 4th to punt on your Super Bowl chance this year?

 

[skinzplay]

I like McLaurin, but not enough to hamstring our team's finances heading into 2027/2028. And an unselfish McLaurin shouldn't want that either. I think this offense can rock and roll with the talent on hand, minus McLaurin, if necessary.