The 2025 Free Agency Thread

He is from Indiana and went to college in fucking Ohio.

Plus Hendrickson is not going to be any cheaper. 🤷🏻‍♂️
 
With the current climate of the WR market, $31M a year for a premium talent is pretty much the going rate because the market is going to be reset every offseason. Spades have been broken at this point. $31M doesn't reset the market, Jamarr Chase set it at $40.5m. $31m would be roughly 25% less than that. I have a feeling that the argument on Terry's side is similar to that one.

"We understand we're not Jamarr Chase, but we're also better than 75% of him"
 
Feels like this thing is getting emotional for everyone on all sides talking about it, which is why it makes it doubly good to know that it's not for the front office, don't want it standing in the way of any decision, whether that is to extend or not to extend.

I still think it makes too much sense for both sides to continue to be together, it just might take some more uncomfortable time (and lots of fan anguish) until they zero in on a good deal considering the realities.
 
Terry's career year last year was due to better QB play. Terry caught more passes last year (82) than any previous year except for 2020 when he caught 87. The problem though is that he was targeted less last year (117) than any other year excluding his rookie year. Also, in 2020 during his 87 catch season he was targeted 134 times. Terry did more with less because his QB's passes are on the money.

Not comparing JD with Brady, but Brady didn't need elite WR's.

If we can't get Terry in the 30m/year range, then let him play his contract out and franchise him next year.
 

That tweet above is what I see a bunch on twitter. I'll credit some who cover the team who have said we should want what Peters is doing in this case -- that is a real GM operating like a real GM. If we want a FO that overpays, we should bring back Riverboat Ron, see the Payne contract for example, and I've heard they would have likely given a big contract to Curl if it were not for the sale just kicking in during that period.

But forget Terry specfically. We don't want a FO that overpays players based on emotion like they are a fan.
 
Primus Porcus said:
With the current climate of the WR market, $31M a year for a premium talent is pretty much the going rate because the market is going to be reset every offseason. Spades have been broken at this point. $31M doesn't reset the market, Jamarr Chase set it at $40.5m. $31m would be roughly 25% less than that. I have a feeling that the argument on Terry's side is similar to that one.

"We understand we're not Jamarr Chase, but we're also better than 75% of him"
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I'd be surprised based on the tidbits that are out there that Terry is satisfied with 30-31. My guess is they are shooting for 33-35. I do think it ends up though at 30-31ish.

Agree with the point that 31 is the growing rate for premium talent at that spot. But....its tricky with a Wr who will be 31 at the start of their contract. That puts Terry in a non-apples to apples situation with name that other higher paid WR. The best comp arguably is Mike Evans who is arguably also the better WR. But as ex-agent Joel Corry has said multiple times, the Terry contract is tricky because of his age, tough to find comps.

If Terry played edge or O line his age wouldn't matter. But WR-RB especially have big fall offs in their 30s. Terry seems to suggest it shouldn't matter just because. He referenced his playoff run where he took the screen to the house. I get his point, he's still fast. But he might not be the same lets say in 2 seasons. And to that point maybe the hangup is the guaranteed money instead of the year to year to salary where the team to protect themselves from a decline has an exit ramp?

www.bucsnation.com

Mike Evans contract projection: A top wide receiver, but also an aging one

What can the Buccaneers expect to pay Mike Evans if they give him an extension this offseaon?
www.bucsnation.com www.bucsnation.com
The other side of the coin is that Evans missed three games due to injury in 2024, and is entering his age 32 season, a time historically when many receivers begin to decline physically. He produced the second-lowest yardage total of his career last season (1004) and the lowest yards per reception mark (13.6).

 
I didn't have a problem with Terry's comments. For the player it's always personal and emotional.

For the Pay The Man crowd I offer 2 words: Cooper Kupp.
 
skinsinparadise said:
I'd be surprised based on the tidbits that are out there that Terry is satisfied with 30-31. My guess is they are shooting for 33-35. I do think it ends up though at 30-31ish.

Agree with the point that 31 is the growing rate for premium talent at that spot. But....its tricky with a Wr who will be 31 at the start of their contract. That puts Terry in a non-apples to apples situation with name that other higher paid WR. The best comp arguably is Mike Evans who is arguably also the better WR. But as ex-agent Joel Corry has said multiple times, the Terry contract is tricky because of his age, tough to find comps.

If Terry played edge or O line his age wouldn't matter. But WR-RB especially have big fall offs in their 30s. Terry seems to suggest it shouldn't matter just because. He referenced his playoff run where he took the screen to the house. I get his point, he's still fast. But he might not be the same lets say in 2 seasons. And to that point maybe the hangup is the guaranteed money instead of the year to year to salary where the team to protect themselves from a decline has an exit ramp?

www.bucsnation.com

Mike Evans contract projection: A top wide receiver, but also an aging one

What can the Buccaneers expect to pay Mike Evans if they give him an extension this offseaon?
www.bucsnation.com www.bucsnation.com
The other side of the coin is that Evans missed three games due to injury in 2024, and is entering his age 32 season, a time historically when many receivers begin to decline physically. He produced the second-lowest yardage total of his career last season (1004) and the lowest yards per reception mark (13.6).

Click to expand...



I agree with all of it.

I'm just saying I think that's how his agent is likely in his ear and advising him similarly.

I will say I don't know that Evans is the 'better' player. I tend to lean toward Terry because we saw multiple times last year that he's still got the ability to house call any time he touches the ball. Something that is hard to value in the NFL because of the point you made... players tend to regress.... by no fault of their own.

I will again say that I understand why Peters and co are handling things the way they are, and i'm good with it. I don't think this is coming down to their ability to evaluate talent... this contract is 100% about their ability to see the future. This is not letting a premium talent walk because they don't think he's good. This isn't failing to invest on potential. This is top 10 money at a premium position. It's not about whether or not Terry is worth top 10 money, it's whether he's going to be worth it in 3 years.

I'll again say I know i'm a fan and i'd pay the man, but i do get it.
 
What are the chances Terry gets a compromise deal, if it comes to an impasse with his age, where it's incentive/target based in a realistic way for him, or do most deals in the industry include this anyway?

I doubt he'd be happy with having to prove himself again, he's after a secured future, but then it is a business & as others say, they definitely have to be in a good spot when payday comes for JD5.

Or are incentives not even realistic for Terry's situation? My thinking is that it could be some kind of a bridge between the two parties, to alleviate the FO paying overs if the production wanes.
 
The Brotherhood said:
What are the chances Terry gets a compromise deal, if it comes to an impasse with his age, where it's incentive/target based in a realistic way for him, or do most deals in the industry include this anyway?

I doubt he'd be happy with having to prove himself again, he's after a secured future, but then it is a business & as others say, they definitely have to be in a good spot when payday comes for JD5.

Or are incentives not even realistic for Terry's situation? My thinking is that it could be some kind of a bridge between the two parties, to alleviate the FO paying overs if the production wanes.
Click to expand...

He wouldn’t sign a deal that’s heavy on (or even involves many) incentives, it just wouldn’t make sense—because if he plays out the final year of his current deal, the next step is the Franchise tag or the open market. And the Franchise Tag is current $28M for one year, and will probably be higher by next year if anyone else gets paid and drags it up.

So he’d prefer the security and guaranteed money of a long term deal, but if he doesn’t get it he would be dumb to sign anything that doesn’t at least equal the Franchise Tag in year one money.
 
Conn said:
He wouldn’t sign a deal that’s heavy on (or even involves many) incentives, it just wouldn’t make sense—because if he plays out the final year of his current deal, the next step is the Franchise tag or the open market. And the Franchise Tag is current $28M for one year, and will probably be higher by next year if anyone else gets paid and drags it up.

So he’d prefer the security and guaranteed money of a long term deal, but if he doesn’t get it he would be dumb to sign anything that doesn’t at least equal the Franchise Tag in year one money.
Click to expand...
Got it, thanks Conn.
 
Anselmheifer said:
I keep asking myself whether there are any WR’s signed to a contract that will pay them 33 million at age 33.
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I don’t have the time right now but I would look more towards if any 30+ are getting top 10 money at that time and how many have the same % of cap
 
I just don't want a pissed-off Terry on the field, maybe not giving 100%.
 
It seems to me that ultimately a contract has its bones in the Guaranteed Money, APY is cute and makes agents look good, but the rubber meets the road with the guarantees. Pay the man 31M a year but with 60M Guaranteed. Thats something I think the team could live with and the new Mrs Terry has enough to rest easy on.
 
What does the next draft look like for wide receivers? 🫣
 
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