The 2025 Free Agency Thread

[Discobob]

Exactly.

We've graduated from walking into a Burger King, dressed down, wearing flip flops to we got invited to a 4 Michelin star restaurant, where all the other customers are wealthy and wearing tuxes. Somehow with all of that we were not only accepted in the high end restaurant, we were almost the belle of the ball in spite of walking in with rags. This all came out of nowhere.

And it was weird but in a cool way. Some national observors said its the biggest rags to riches NFL climb in one season that they've witnessed in eons -- and if Washington won the SB, it would be Hollywood movie worthy.

It was wild and weird. And I can't really think of a recent precedent that's apples to apples. Some say the Texans. Maybe. But I don't think that was apples to apples. The Texans didn't get to the championship game and as good as Stroud was -- he wasn't IMO Daniels. Also, Daniels isn't just a great QB but he's so clutch. Some I think were too harsh with Kirk when he was here as to lacking the clutch gene. Kirk IMO had moments, he was up and down on that front. But Kirk was good, not special. Herbert for example has elite talent but he's accused of not being big in the big games.

Daniels on the other hand is clutch and is a big game QB. For that reason, I don't think last season was a fluke. And I do think the SB window is open now. He is a high stakes clutch QB which is perfect for any playoff run.

What was so weird about the climb last season was it was Daniels carrying this team on his back probably more so than any other QB in the playoffs including Mahomes. Yet with Daniels doing just about everything they almost made the SB. Imagine Daniels with some help?

I don't think Peters is microwaving this at all. If he was microwaving. I think he'd..

A. Overpay for younger FAs who are good but not great and we'd likely be stuck with some likely bad contracts but who cares we will deal with cap issues later

B. Overpay for a medicore LT like Moore and pay him elite level money. It may work, it may not but what the hell, give it go, we got the cap room, lets burn through it and see what happens

C. Shop in the aisle of WRs who are just OK and overpay them. OK Amari Cooper was once great. give him what he wants. We will deal with the consequences later.

Instead...

A. Peters decided to trade a 5th round pick for the best YAC WR in the league. If I recall the success rate for 5th round picks is about 15% at best. so we don't get the next Roy Helu (I think he was a 4th), or Tim Settle (he was ironically one of the best 5th rounders) or Keith Ismael, or whomever.

B. Decide to protect the team's most important asset, Jayden Daniels with an elite LT.

C. I want to see them do more on the D line and I think they will. But so many screamed for them to build a defense that can stop the run. And they've done exactly that.

D. I actually think Jonathan Jones and Will Harris are better against the pass versus St. Juste and Forbes and Chinn. So I think in a sneaky way their seconday is better, too.

Yeah they got more work to do. I want an edge who can bring fear to the opponents. But if you told me before the off season Jayden at this point will have an elite LT, finally have a dangerous 2nd receiving weapon, would bring back almost every player that helped last season, I'd be jazzed.

And as for microwaving the team, he's protecting an asset that is just as valuable as draft picks, the cap. If its microwaving the team, Cerrato style, Peters wouldn't be signing mostly cheap veterans on short term contracts. He'd be paying the 33 year D Lawrence, 16 milliona year for three years or paying name that dude 20 million for three-four years, etc. Or loading up on a bunch of 10-15 million dollar players and be damned about the cap consequences.

The team that's closer to microwaving their roster is the Vikings. They have less draft picks now than we do and signed a whole bunch of FAs to fat contracts.

Careful what you say about Roy Helu, his fans are fanatical ... 🤫

 

[clskinsfan]

Yep, tip of the cap to the truly most important position on the field.

It's not DE.

Especially not int he modern NFL. It is an offensive game now. All of the rule changes the past two decades were made to favor the offense. You need to score a lot and force turnovers to win games in todays game. That is the winning formula.

 

[skinsinparadise]

Jonathan Jones is a much better man cover corner than St. Juste, that isn't really an argument.

Washington isn't really tied into Tunsil, Samuel or Lattimore beyond 2025 although for the picks given up if these guys max out on the field it will be difficult to just let them go elsewhere.

But in the case of Hendrickson and Myles Garrett before him, this is not a deal that is going to come at reasonable cost. We are going to not only have to give up a high pick but then pay him and lock into a guy that will be in a wheel chair retired by the time we get through paying him his $125 or $140M.

I would rather not do that at this point.

I don't remember the Chiefs trading that many picks away when Mahomes was ready to start in the thought they were looking at a short window.

In fact Kansas City has been competitive for the Super Bowl since 2019 consistently each season and that is because Brett Veach has been very successful at finding the Chris Jones and Trent McDuffie type players in the draft.

I think winning is so new for some folks they just don't have any patience at all in building a team.

I am sure that's not what Peters is thinking.

I suspect we are spinning our wheels for no reason on Hendrickson because I strongly suspect Cincy resigns him. I know they got likely cap issues but IMO they'd be foolish to trade the league leader in sacks for the last two years for lets say a late 2nd rounder. As deep as the draft is for edge -- if the idea is to replace him with another edge from this draft, they are likely talking about the 11-13th most pedigreed edge in this draft. But, also it could be wild to have so much of their cap dedicated to just 4 players so who knows?

And the odds are what like 2% or so that they hit with anyone near Hendrickson's level that far down into that position in this draft. Heck if I can take Abdul Carter, then it would be adios Hendrickson for me. Maybe i'd chance it if I were them for a first rounder, even late first rounder. The odds that Pearce or Ezierauku or Mike Green become Hendrickson is still low. But at least its not crazy. But the other issue is you know Hendrickson is a high character player. Green and Pearce have been questioned on that front. But what the hell roll the dice, maybe.

But if I am shopping for Hendrickson in the Kyle Kennard, Josaiah Stewart pool then I better really like those guys, etc. It's not that players don't defy the odds and succeed over higher pedigreed-perceived talented players. Heck Ron Rivera seemed to stake all of his drafts as to going against the grain and instead of taking the freakish talented player, he went for the more off beat outlier choice. It didn't work for him. But it does indeed work on occasion.

That's my long winded way of saying I think if I am Peters I want to look at it from an opportunity cost standpoint. Do i love pass rushers who likely land at my spot. And what's the trade off? I get the impression that if a trade happens it will be for this team's late 2nd. Do we love who we think end up in the late 2nd? do the Bengals love it at that spot or not?

I know we can't predict the draft to a tee, but usually the late 2nd isn't hard, especally if you zone in on one spot. You have at least an idea of who likely will be there or not. My point is I am guessing this isn't a pure theoritical-philosophical decision from Peters but its very specific. Is there a major difference adding an elite edge rusher with a late 2nd or is the draft really intriguing at that spot where its not needed?

LT for example might have brought a different decision if this was the 2024 draft. That draft was loaded at that spot. And that's rare. They actually tried to trade up and were rebuffed. This draft looks terrible at LT. FA was terrible. So the move for Tunsill made sense.

For DE, I keep hearing they won't give up their first rounder. So I am gathering they think Hendrickson >> a late 2nd round pick. But really dig the possibilities at first or see that first as an opportunity to trade down and they are focused on making that happen.

What that means? Who knows. Maybe they do love an edge who might fall in the late first and want to double up with two stud edges? Maybe they dont think the edges they love fall to their pick? Maybe they love a player who they think fall to them who plays a different spot? Maybe they are determined to trade down and are targeting a player in the early 2nd?

 

[philibusters]

I really don't see why it would be a bad idea to give up a 2nd round pick for a first team All-Pro stud edge rusher. I get the ideology of building through the draft. But we have a 2 season window to win a SB before we have to make JD the highest paid player in NFL history and will then have to deal with him taking up an outsized portion of our cap. Do we really think it's likely that our 2nd round pick will not only end up being an absolute stud elite player, but that he'll also develop into that fast enough to be a major piece in a SB run over this season and next?

Realistically we will probably have 3 to 4 more years of Jayden being a relatively small cap hit even if he signs an extension after the 2026 season. Plus if Jayden is legit the window is still open after his cap hits gets higher. Patrick Mahomes was in year 8 this year, Josh Allen and Lamar were both in year 7, all three were title contenders with Mahomes and Allen playing in the AFC Championship game. Burrow's team went 9-8 but they also went 4-8 in one score games meaning they were probably better than their record. He is a bit younger (it was only year 5 for him), but the Bengals could easily be back to contenders soon simply because they were not that far off this year despite the 9-8 record.

My fear for Trey Hendrickson is we give up a second and say fourth for him. Then give him a 4 year extension (plus the year he has left on current contract) so we have him under contract for 5 years with a realistic out after 4 years. The extension is at like 34 million a year. And it ends up being like the Josh Norman deal. Where he is a good player, but he gets older and loses a little juice every year so that by year 4 here he is the equalivant of mid level starter with a 40 million dollar cap hit and we missed out on a second and fourth rounder.

It certainly could work out with Hendrickson, but its a risk. I feel like if we still had the trade capital that we gave up in the Lattimore deal, I would probably want to take that risk. But given the amount trade capital we have left, I don't want to use it and risk having a depreciating asset.

 

[RWJ]

Really believe the Hendrickson trade to Washington has sailed. Picks for Lattimore and Tunsil along with Cincinnati's asking price have sent that baby back out to sea, IMO.

 

[Conn]

Jalen Holmes hopefully can be kept at DE where he has played most of his career.

We tried putting him inside at points last year and he just wasn’t a fit there vs the run.

Ron Rivera was SO BAD that even Mathis couldn’t develop into a capable starter or backup on the DL despite being a #2 pick.

The only thing I didn’t like about the Kinlaw signing was the rich figure for guaranteed money for a guy that while solid has not been a standout as of yet at this level.

Still trying to figure who was going to give him $30M guaranteed to compete with us for his services.

Chase Young got 3/51 to make no discernible impact off the edge, with no lane discipline in the run game.

Jon Allen got 3/51 also to be the definition of average currently.

So I think it’s just the market. 15ish for an average 25-26 year old at an expensive position who has flashed and has superior athletic ability underpinning it all, who has had some injuries hold him back from developing in his early years…the market is brutal, and I think that’s what happened. I don’t think it was about a bidding war with a specific team, just look at all the contracts being signed that day. He very well might’ve gotten that elsewhere, or close to it.

 

[clskinsfan]

Some rumors out there about us talking to Asante Samuel Jr. I wouldnt hate that move. He has been OK when not hurt. Younger guy who can grow witht he defense.

 

[RWJ]

 

[CuredFromBatteredFanSyndrome]

Double burns my ass that Ojulari goes for 1/4M and to the Eagles no less.

It’s the one spot that I just feel so desperate about it.

 

[NoCalSkins]

***EDIT This was meant to be posted a day or so ago, was accidentally held up in Preview, apologies if it now feels out of context of where the conversation is now***

From my understanding Deebo was approx. 20lbs heavier last season and while it didn't affect his YAC as much, it did affect his ability to get separation so some of the house calls or even just huge chunk plays were down some, but I am not worried as I feel like we have the kind of organization now that isn't going to settle for less than peak game shape (injuries-aside).

Also as far as regressing as a team, I don't think it is always a matter of regressing or improving, but what shape the team is in going into the playoffs. Look at Detroit in 2024, coming off an NFC Championship they let slip through their fingers the previous season, 2024 was supposed to be their year, but they took on a lot of injuries and their defense was just not the same unit for the playoffs. Who knows how the playoffs turn out if Detroit was healthy. The same could be said about the Rams who drew an unlucky situation having to play in a snow storm when their best probability to win that game was with the passing offense, which seemed to be affected a lot by the weather conditions, and tbh, they still almost pulled it off. So there are just too many factors that happen through the course of the season to automatically jump to a team regressing due to not advancing as far.

Based on the roster right now, I still don't think it is anywhere close to championship level on paper. JD5 of course is such a force multiplier that we don't even need a roster as stacked as Philly's to win it all

 

[skinsinparadise]

 

[SkinsGuy99]

 

[DieselPwr44]

***EDIT This was meant to be posted a day or so ago, was accidentally held up in Preview, apologies if it now feels out of context of where the conversation is now***

From my understanding Deebo was approx. 20lbs heavier last season and while it didn't affect his YAC as much, it did affect his ability to get separation so some of the house calls or even just huge chunk plays were down some, but I am not worried as I feel like we have the kind of organization now that isn't going to settle for less than peak game shape (injuries-aside).

Also as far as regressing as a team, I don't think it is always a matter of regressing or improving, but what shape the team is in going into the playoffs. Look at Detroit in 2024, coming off an NFC Championship they let slip through their fingers the previous season, 2024 was supposed to be their year, but they took on a lot of injuries and their defense was just not the same unit for the playoffs. Who knows how the playoffs turn out if Detroit was healthy. The same could be said about the Rams who drew an unlucky situation having to play in a snow storm when their best probability to win that game was with the passing offense, which seemed to be affected a lot by the weather conditions, and tbh, they still almost pulled it off. So there are just too many factors that happen through the course of the season to automatically jump to a team regressing due to not advancing as far.

Based on the roster right now, I still don't think it is anywhere close to championship level on paper. JD5 of course is such a force multiplier that we don't even need a roster as stacked as Philly's to win it all

So in other words, it all comes down to Strength and Conditioning.

 

[CuredFromBatteredFanSyndrome]

I couldn’t be happier we have that behemoth protecting Jayden’s blind side.

I think Jayden’s ability to move around and get out of trouble disguised the performance of the offensive line to a large degree last season. They thrived when Kliff gave them a level of deception the defense had to wait for, but hat on a hat time they got bowled over. I was not surprised when Keim said there was no indication they were married to Coleman at LT. But to just pop out and acquire a unicorn in Tunsil was so huge.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

So in other words, it all comes down to Strength and Conditioning.

I think we should move on from this. I was a guilty as anybody but I think it’s run its course.

 

[NoCalSkins]

I'm really not all that surprised AP isn't breaking the bank for any specific player. It never seemed like his preferred method and I don't think he wants the allure of bringing in a big name to distract from the long term sustained roster building he wants to do. Seems like he is going to do a lot of shorter term contracts on players he feels the coaches can squeeze a couple reallt good seasons out of while their replacements are drafted, then once the majority of the roster is younger and less expensive, he can attack free agency differently.

 

[COWBOY-KILLA]

Not really a great draft to trade up from the second to the first though. And it takes two to tango. Player evals are pretty much the same 20-60 in this draft.

Yes I understand the thought, but all it takes is 1 to get that ball rolling. And given that all the guys are jumbled I’m pretty certain someone will be there that a team wants.

We just have to be ready for anything, which I’m sure we will be. Not stressing it.

 

[burgold]

I think we should move on from this. I was a guilty as anybody but I think it’s run its course.

Besides which, in the offseason, strength and conditioning actually is key. We do need Newton and Coleman to get stronger. We do need to make sure that players don't wear down as quickly. I do expect to see last year's rookies take a step forward because of their work in the weight room.

Now is the time to focus on strength and conditioning!

 

[Gooseneck]

 

[SkinsFTW]

Double burns my ass that Ojulari goes for 1/4M and to the Eagles no less.

It’s the one spot that I just feel so desperate about it.

I can't believe that nobody offered him more. Jax and NE and a few other teams were overpaid all those other guys. Maybe he has the injury prone label now but his rookie season he had 8 sacks.