I mean, we were one game away from the Super Bowl, had a million fumbles, and the NFC championship game didn't feel out of reach until the 4th quarter. We may not be one or two impact players away. But, we may be 1 to 2 impact players, several depth players, and a draft class away. We destroyed the number 1 seed in the NFC and played the Super Bowl champs better than anyone else this season, since they started their winning streak.
The NFL, from year to year, is so unpredictable.
Yes, all of what you wrote is 100% true, and I would even add the NFCCG is a big "?" for me, in terms of its result. Way too many critical plays affected by zebras.
All that said, though, nothing is guaranteed in 2025. The Eagles construction didn't happen overnight; it has had an architect for many years who set this team up to win for the next few years with some level of likelihood. Our team does NOT have the features required for that, as of right now:
1) too many FAs with expiring contracts, and some of them particularly critical in this year's success
2) 1-year track record. What happens next year in terms of adjustments by US and by THEM (rest of the league)?
3) Offensive success featured a league-high number of "scrambles" and it wasn't close.
That is a gigantic jump between 1 and 2 and beyond. That is a red-flag on sustainability for a lot of reasons.
4) Durability and injury concerns. This team had a couple of bad injuries but it could have been much worse. Next year, it may be.
5) This is probably a big one. We are essentially asking ourselves, can the Commanders be a tier-1 team next year; compete at the doorstep of the SB, as a legit contender. They proved themselves as a legit contender in the playoffs. Nothing takes away from that. However, for year-to-year predictable success as a tier-1 team, I do think you have to blowout or handily beat the teams that you "should" in general (not perfect of course). For example, I do think the Commanders should have handily beaten the Cowboys in that first game to give me a good feeling for sustainability. We say "division rivals" but the only division rival that gave the Eagles real trouble I think was the Commanders. They had 0 trouble with the others (I think? I didn't have time to check it but I do remember two trouncings of the Cowboys at least).
You'll note I did not put "Strength of Schedule" only because I think that is probably a bit overblown. I could be wrong there, but the times when SoS matters more is not when you are hoping to contend for a Super Bowl. Strength of Schedule really matters when you are in the 2/3 tier of football teams; those are teams contending for playoff spots. What we are talking about here is how likely the Commanders are for sustaining the level of success they had this year. That is TIER-1 level success.
I would say it is unlikely in general, however going into this year it was significantly LESS LIKELY they would make the NFCCG. So, that's where we are. Can AP and DQ make magic happen again, or will some of the factors above prove to be too much to overcome? There are clear coaching and FO issues for this to work.
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