Next Day Thread: 12-5.

[Chris 44]

It feels to me like it's the O-Line that's the root of a lot of the issues we're talking about.

When we have our starters healthy, it's not a bad line. We saw that at the start of the year when JD was flourishing and our run game was pounding other teams. Issue is we have next to no depth there. The drop off from starters to reserves is stark.
And unfortunately, we're really banged up there right now.

WIth Lucas and Biadasz out, and with Coleman leaving the game, our Oline was just terrible. (I Think we tend to forget that Coleman is a rookie too, and all the growing pains that come with that!).
Our pass protection was horrendous (we were TRIPLE-teaming Parsons just to keep him at bay) and our run blocking sporadic.

I don't think it's s surprise that BRobs production has dried up in parallel with our Oline being down to second stringers at key positions. I also don't think it's a coincidence that JD has struggled as pressure has mounted due to poor pass protection.
JD5 for all the amazing things he has done, is still a rookie too, and I think pressure like he was getting starts to accelerate his internal clock a little. It also doesn't help when our WR corps is depleted (Noah is still out, and while we got Dyami back this week he's never been a real difference maker) and are dropping balls left and right. Terry is usually Mr Dependable, but even he muffed a couple yesterday. Mariota is a veteran and hence a little calmer under pressure I feel. JD5 will learn from all this and be better for it, but I think it was the right thing to do yesterday to put Mariota in.

I like BRob, but he's no Saquon or Henry. I don't think he's capable of sustaining a run attack if the environment isn't perfect. We're still looking for that elite running back.

I don't think this is anything to do with KK's offense walking off a cliff. I think it has everything to do with the fact that we're not a talented team across the board and for our offense to hum it has to balance on a real knife edge. We're like a very finely tuned engine. IF we have our starters in and they perform to their ability, then we can really hum. But if not, if we just lose even a couple of components, then we struggle. Right now, our injuries have us just outside our bandwidth.

With a good off-season to bolster our depth and put some good players to raise our overall talent level, we should see that band widen which will allow us to weather these kind of injury storms. Like the Lions. Right now, we just aren't there and these last few games have really shown us that while we're good, we still have a ways to go.

12 wins this year is an amazing accomplishment. We've been good, but also we've been lucky. Next year will be a real challenge to repeat that win total.

I think you nailed it with this assessment.

 

[Chris]

We have not heard a word about Noah Brown’s condition since his very concerning internal injury (liver?). I don’t expect him to return this season but I hope he is recovering well.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

Yes, Kliff is often content to mostly give up on the run game

I don't think that's actually true. I think he has stuck with the run game as much as you can hope for.

What's interesting is the team ran the ball SO well early in the season. And now it can't run the ball a lick.

I have a theory as to why: Kliff was doing a whole bunch of things to trick defenses to open up holes. One thing I noticed early is we used A LOT of counter-motion, where we would consistently pull guards, tackles, even TEs across the formation to lead RBs to holes. It was very Gibbsian. There were always players going in different directions, and Robinson could find his block and go straight at it.

However, over time, that trickeration can get figured out. With all the motion, you leave gaps, and defenders see it and learn to shoot the gaps.

The reason for the trickeration, though, was because we don't have an OL which can really line up and win 1:1 matchups. I'm a little higher on the OL than KDawg in general, mostly because I think Coleman is a little better than he does. And I think Wylie isn't quite as bad as he does, even though I think he's somewhere in the 26-32 RT range. So not exactly "good" but also not Shar Pourdanesh levels of ineptitude.

But having said that, outside of Biadacz and Cosmi, our OL cannot win 1:1 battles and move defenders.

So Kliff is stuck between a rock and a hard place: if he calls runs with all the motion, it's been figure out, and it's getting snuffed out. If he calls more traditional runs, the players can't hold their blocks.

Add to that, the constant seeing of a defender 3 yards in the backfield has given Robinson the yips. He doesn't know what the heck to do, and has seemingly lost all confidence.

What Kliff has done to counter some of that is to use the QB as the run threat. That adds the wrinkle which makes it harder for the defense to just key the RB. But I don't think they wanted to do that with Jayden yesterday, even before the leg soreness.

I'm not sure how it gets fixed. Biadacz coming back will definitely help. Adding Lucas as a rotational player at RT with Wylie might help if he's healthy. I would also give carries to CRob and McNichols, just to see if they can get hot.

I honestly don't expect it to get better this season. Just like I don't expect the run defense to all of a sudden get better.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

We have not heard a word about Noah Brown’s condition since his very concerning internal injury (liver?). I don’t expect him to return this season but I hope he is recovering well.

I think it was kidneys. But regardless. We're not seeing him this year. I hope he is recovering well also.

If I remember that was a NASTY hit. I can't remember if it was clean or not. I just remember it being violent, and saying in the chat something like, "Noah Brown is lucky to be alive."

 

[skinsmarydu]

The "Hot-Doggin' Into The Playoffs" baguettes for breakfast.

 

[Fan Since a Fetus]

Good teams win the close ones. A lot of games are won by seven points are less. The good ones figure out how to get it done. We have done that.

We have a solid foundation and the most important position on the field. I think Daniels would look way better with a run game. Plus, outside of Terry our WRs are terrible. I think a couple pieces on our offense could really turn this team into a juggernaut.

I pray we get Biadasz back healthy this week. We can definitely beat Tampa.

It’s kind of funny that we are complaining about a 12-5 team that made the playoffs and no one expected this kind of season to happen. No one expected Daniels to have this good of a season. He’s young, there are going to be mistakes on his part. As of now, he seems to be learning from them.

One thing to think about is Tampa has lost between either 4 or 6 prime time games in a row (edit: I just realized where I got this info and it was from our op KDawg, lol). If we beat Tampa this great season will only be better.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

-BSJ is a marked man by league refs. If it is close, he won’t get benefit of the doubt. His own fault that he has built this reputation over the years

- PFF gave Quan a meh grade this year at 59. Ranked as a bottom half of the league safety. Wonder if they bring in legit competition for him

I think our coaching staff would disagree with the PFF grade. Seems like they really like Quan.

I also think he gets a lot of mop-up duty because our CBs are SO SO SO bad.

It's like trying to drive a car with a triangle tire.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

The "Hot-Doggin' Into The Playoffs" baguettes for breakfast.

And now I'm hungry.

 

[NickyJ]

Robinson has a good story to him, but honestly, I think he's easily replaceable. I think every back on the roster aside from Ekeler is easily replaceable with street free agents, and Ekeler himself can't be relied on to carry a heavy load. In my uneducated opinion, an RB has to be downright awful to not get a year of decent production through strength and willpower. The special RBs are the ones who can last more than a year or two before they get worn down.

 

[Fan Since a Fetus]

Robinson is replaceable and I’m glad some people are seeing that. But Kliff and the oline aren’t helping. Robinson doesn’t have the speed to beat defenders to the outside. It’s predictable when he is in the game. One thing that could help is using him as a safety valve. I’ve seen nothing to suggest he cannot catch the ball out of the backfield. In fact, outside of Ekeler early in the season we haven’t really used the RBs as safety valves.

I think another problem with the run game is we never take snaps from under center. I understand it’s a different game today, but variety is a key. It took awhile for Kliff to start moving Terry around. He really needs to think about his run game and how he needs to improve.

I think the run game is a talent issue as well as a coaching issue. Maybe we can grab a run game coordinator in the offseason if Kliff sticks around.

 

[CapsCommies]

It's time we admit the KK mid-season drop off has happened here too.

Let's dig into this. Here are some 1st half of season vs. 2nd half of season averages (first half of season = games 1-9; second half = games 9-17; totals rounded to nearest whole number).

1st Half Points: 29
2nd Half Points: 28
Net Change: -5%

1st Half Total Yards: 392
2nd Half Total Yards: 346
Net Change: -12%

1st Half Total TDs: 3
2nd Half Total TDs: 3
Net Change: +19%

1st Half Passing Yards: 228
2nd Half Passing Yards: 202
Net Change: -11%

1st Half Passing TDs: 1
2nd Half Passing TDs: 2
Net Change: +82%

1st Half Rushing Yards: 164
2nd Half Rushing Yards: 144
Net Change: -12%

1st Half Rushing TDs: 2
2nd Half Rushing TDs: 1
Net Change: -27%

Offensive output dropped by around 10% in the second half but got more efficient in throwing for touchdowns, netting out at roughly the same point production. Let's also keep in mind with year 1 of the system and a rookie QB, there are counterbalancing factors between increased chemistry/experience/reps vs. injuries testing the unit's depth (in year 1 of the new regime).

All that said, CapsCommies hereby finds the accused, Kliff Timothy Kingsbury, not guilty of falling off the Kliff Cliff.

 

[burgold]

No one expected Daniels to have this good of a season. He’s young, there are going to be mistakes on his part. As of now, he seems to be learning from them.

A side benefit for Daniels being benched is getting a chance to watch Mariota get it done. I actually think Mariotta was doing a lot of the stuff that Daniels had been doing at the beginning of the season. The quick game and taking what's there versus trying to make plays. I could be wrong, but I think he's been trying to look downfield more and this (with the o line's woes) has caused him to struggle a bit more in the passing game over the last two weeks.

I bet Daniels is studying his tape and the tape of Mariotta and saying, "Got it!"

 

[skinsmarydu]

The kid from down the street who used to help my husband in the yard (now a 27-year-old Marine) just came by to check on me....and as a Falcons fan, gave me and the Team some props, especially about Mariota. He's so awesome.

 

[DCSkinz2023]

I'm curious from those of you who pay more attention to scheme and what the offense is doing. Were we vanilla yesterday on our playcalling? Is it possible Cliff has some tricks in his bag that have been there all year and he's waiting to unleash them? I don't know, just curious.

This was an insane season. I've never seen a 12 win team look so messy but who cares. They defy logic and you can't quantify anything they do. Conventional wisdom says this is unsustainable and pretty soon it may be but they keep winning.

This has to be about coaching. We have very little depth, and we're talent deficient at many positions but somehow we found ways to get it done and that screams great coaching on both sides. Joe Whitt turned this D from chicken shit into 3 day old chicken salad (can't say fresh chicken salad) and they made enough plays when it counted.

Cliff won 2 games with our backup in there and yesterday our O line was beat to hell.

Great job by the staff getting the most out of players the rest of the league no longer believed in.

 

[Gooseneck]

This is usually the end of the season... In fact, since these Next Day Threads started in their current iteration, we have yet to have fielded a playoff team. So I am left with questions... Do I continue studs and duds into post season? Do I award the players with their "awards" just for the regular season? And my answer is simple: No one cares about the awards so they'll be after we are eliminated. And I actually semi lied... we made the playoffs in 2020, which I did the NDT's for... I just don't have any memory of how I handled it.

Now that this major order of business has been settled... Let's get to the meat and potatoes - We are 12-5. It is an ugly as hell 12-5. It's now how any of us probably would have imagined it would be for us to achieve our best record since 1991... Hail Mary's, comebacks, Marcus Mariota - you name it... we did it. But we finished 12-5. You don't get style points in the National Football League. As the late Al Davis once said, "Just win, baby". And we did. Twelve times. In one year. Twelve wins is equal to the number of wins we had in 2023 & 2024 combined. Again, we won the same amount of games in one year as we did in the previous two seasons. It it kind of surreal when you think about it.

This thread is going to be shorter than usual - why? Well, I'm strapped for time. But also because I don't want to make this longer than it needs to be to emphasize the theme: 12-5.

Some bullet point thoughts:

-McLaurin needs to catch the easy passes earlier in the game. But I am glad he caught the hard ones later. When JD went out, he stepped up.

-Payne at end is fun. I was kind of mad at him for the penalty he got, but when you see the replay I feel he was probably justified.

-Jeremy Chinn has been absolutely phenomenal for us. Wagner, Chinn, Luvu and Sainristil are the biggest difference makers on the D, which is still porous at times... But they buckle down when needed.

-If Lattimore isn't healthy this week, we're in trouble. Baker Mayfield is a guy like Jayden - he can will his team to victory.

-The Bucs are 0-4 this year in prime time and 0-6 the last two years... and we play them Sunday in prime time.

-Marcus Mariota stepped up and had a few great plays. Great job by Kingsbury adjusting.

-I am slightly concerned with Jayden Daniels. He looked like he did after the rib injury for a few weeks yesterday. Hopefully he just needs some rest.

-McLaurin broke the Commander's single season touchdown record with 2 seconds to go in the regular season. If that doesn't sum up the year I don't know what does.

-I never doubted the outcome yesterday - I just wish we didn't take such a roundabout way to get there.

-Among our vast array of needs this offseason - OL/DT help is among the highest. We need an anchor in the trenches to play that 1/2i-tech spot. We also need at least one tackle (hopefully LT and move Coleman). Those are minimum upgrades.

-Our running game has been abysmal. I think a lot of that is on the line. But Robinson has been off lately. Mariota was our leading rusher yesterday with 56 yards. Second? Jayden Daniels with 27.

-OZ had a tough game yesterday, but stepped up with Mariota.

-Did I mention Jeremy Chinn? He had 13 tackles, a sack and 2 TFL yesterday.

But again, the overall takeaway yesterday? 12-5. Playoffs. Prime Time. What a time to be alive.

Studs:
Jeremy Chinn - ***
Marcus Mariota - ***
Terry McLaurin - **
Mike Sainristil - **
Bobby Wagner - *
Zach Ertz - *


Season Total:
Studs:
Jayden Daniels - 13x*
Terry McLaurin - 12x*
Frankie Luvu - 9x*
Jeremy Chinn - 9x*
Mike Sainristil - 8x*
Olamide Zaccheaus - 5x*
Bobby Wagner - 5x*
Marcus Lattimore - 5x*
Dante Fowler - 4x*
Jer'Zhan Newton - 3x*
Daron Payne -3x*
Zach Ertz - 3x*
Marcus Mariota - 3x*
Nick Allegretti - 2x*
Quan Martin - 2x*
Chris Rodriguez - 2x*
Tyler Biadasz - 2x*
Jamison Crownder - 1x*
Jalyn Holmes - 1x*
Clelin Ferrell - 1x*

Duds:
Austin Seibert - 3x
Michael Davis - 3x
Zane Gonzalez - 1x R

Thanks for your work this season. A question- Do you see Payne as a potential End. Would a run stopper in the middle and Newton be a good lineup?

 

[burgold]

You'd lose so much as a pass rusher with Payne at end. Honestly, I can imagine running backs looping around him to get the edge pretty easily, too. Maybe I'm wrong.

 

[Boone]

First of all - Daniel’s didn’t get ‘benched’, lol.

Secondly, you have to wonder if Jayden wasn’t just beat up - have we forgotten the beating he took at the end of the Falcons game? He took a huge shot to the ribs and was tackled a lot in that game. I suspect he was a bit gimpy coming into this one.

A big factor in the Bucs game is going to be whether or not our receivers can start pulling in catches they were making earlier in the season. Daniels throws aren’t going to be perfect every time but it’s rare that he throws one that isn’t catchable to some degree. The WRs have let him down recently and we’ve managed to overcome that - but if we’re going to win a playoff game, JD is going to need more help from the receiving corps than he’s been getting.

 

[Captain James]

As many have touched on, this team still suffers greatly from lack of talent/depth. Our roster turnover was huge, and the fact that we've finished at 12-5 is INSANE. Seriously, I don't think anyone in their right mind should be griping about anything at this point. We're playing purely with house money and it's hilarious/incredible to watch. I think truly we're all kind of stuck in a weird dimension right now as fans and don't know what to do with our hands.

 

[CapsCommies]

As many have touched on, this team still suffers greatly from lack of talent/depth. Our roster turnover was huge, and the fact that we've finished at 12-5 is INSANE. Seriously, I don't think anyone in their right mind should be griping about anything at this point. We're playing purely with house money and it's hilarious/incredible to watch. I think truly we're all kind of stuck in a weird dimension right now as fans and don't know what to do with our hands.

I’m almost more excited for the offseason than I am for the playoff game. Don’t get me wrong playoffs are awesome, but I can’t wait to see Peters continue building this roster into his vision vs. a bunch of spare parts punching above their weight.

 

[Utah]

I agree with you Boone. Our WR will need to pull a few rabbits out in the catch dept this game.

I would tell you, Jedi5 was just off this game. I think the risk/reward of this game reached a point where DQ decided to yank him more for the mental part of the game then the physical. I suspect on the sideline between drives, Jayden just didn't seem as sharp, which happens. And it could be anything that he was doing from other games that just seemed normal but that this game he just couldn't reach/attain. This was the game we had that option and I think it was a good move. I would tell you as a coach, if you don't see something physical as an answer as to why someone isn't playing normal, you start having chats on the sideline. From there, more than not, you determine the player is fine but just needs a break as today isn't his day. Risk/reward.