Okay so I ran thru the machine again.
10 wins actually has a pretty good chance of getting us in. I'd say at least 75% chance we get in if we win 10. It would require Atlanta losing some games though, but they have a tougher schedule than I thought. We HAVE to beat them though. There is no realistic scenario where we make the playoffs if we lose to Atlanta(unless we somehow win every other game, but that isn't likely). They are also likely gonna need to win that game. Good chance that game gets flexed to either the Saturday or Sunday night slot.
Tampa @ Dallas in Week 16 will be very interesting. We might need Tampa to win or we might need Dallas to win. Its gonna depend on how other results up to that game go.
Carolina is our best friend this last stretch. They have games EVERY WEEK against someone we'll likely need to lose(they play Arizona, Tampa twice, Atlanta, as well as Dallas and Philly). Good thing they're playing much better lately and I think they'll win at least a couple of those games. Carolina is officially our #2 team for the rest of the season.
The NFC West will beat each other up. 10 wins is the ceiling for any of those teams but most run throughs I have the winner finishing with 9. We have direct tie breaker with Arizona so best case for us is if someone else takes the division title, but I actually have Arizona winning the division at 9-8.
There is actually a not crazy scenario where we beat Atlanta in Week 17 and clinch a Wild Card with 9 wins, rendering the finale in Dallas meaningless. Would require a lot of games to go our way though. Best not to think about that.
Goal should be 10 wins. 11 would pretty much guarantee it(as would 12 but I mean lets try to maintain some semblance of reality).
At this point we ignore Minnesota and Green Bay as well. We are conceding that they'll get the 5 and 6 seeds at this point. Minnesota can help us by beating Atlanta. GB helped us by beating San Fran yesterday.
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