Official 'It got blowed up what next?' Thread

[Chris]

So do we want the Lions to lose to the Rams? 🤓

 

[Boone]

I have the Rams winning it aside from the impact on us. McVay knows how to win a playoff game. Dan Campbell has never taken a team to the playoffs as a head coach, and I think this is the kind of game where Jared Goff could try to do too much and make some key mistakes.

 

[Boone]

burgold I think the other possibility we have to keep in mind is that Johnson's likely extensive knowledge of Howell and Maye might also result in him not feeling either guy is a future franchise QB and Washington going after someone few have as one of the top 2 QBs in this draft - a guy like Jayden Daniels. There's just no way of knowing Johnson's mind or what input he will give as part of a decision-making group, but regardless, his knowledge would be an asset.

 

[burgold]

Oh, I'm just daydreaming.

Like the Beach Boys sang, "Wouldn't it be nice?"

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

Final say is never ‘moot’. It’s huge. And whether those two roles work together isn’t dependent on the reporting structure. They could be peers and not be on the same page or one could report to the other but they work collaboratively. I think that’s more dependent on WHO you’ve hired vs. the org chart.

I'm not sure I entirely agree if final say is that big of a deal IF you have the right people in place with the right structure. For example, Kyle Shanahan, Andy Reid and Pete Carroll all had final decision making power. However, all three teams have outstanding personnel departments and the GM is empowered to run the roster construction, the coach just has to be on board. So, does it practically matter Shanahan, Reid and Carroll had final say? I don't think it really does. They work together to come up with the answer.

The Ravens are the mirror image of that, I believe. DeCosta is the GM and has final decision making authority, but he and John Harbaugh are going to come to an agreement together.

In those cases, I think the final decision making power is kidnof irrelevant.

I think the best organizations set up a structure which basically forces collaboration.

The organizations that have 1 person trying to do everything, Bill and previously Ron, are destined to fail. And the organizations where one side of the house isn't on the same page with the other, regardless of who reports to who, are also destined to ail. See the Titans.

I acknowledge SOMEBODY has to be the final decision maker and the tiebreaker. I guess my point is, if that "power" has to be used, you've failed already.

One way of segregating duties which I've seen which does work in some places, the GM has complete final say on the 90 person training camp roster, including the draft and FA. The HC has the final say on the 53. Shrug. That's ok also.

I think for us, Peters is going to have the final vote. But I want the HC to be essentially his equal and they have to work together. Like it was in San Fran.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

Just throwing **** at the wall here... but Johnson could very easily look at Sam Howell and say, that's a future NFL starter, he's just been mismanaged. That could set the stage for Washington going contrarian in the draft and doing a big trade down for even more draft capital.

I'm not saying it's likely, or even that I want that to happen. I personally cannot be sure if Howell can take several steps up and become the guy or if he is just one of those pretty good/serviceable QBs like Colt McCoy who lack the elite qualities to ever become more than a very good backup option.

Of course, Johnson, being uber-familiar with both Howell and Maye, could believe Maye has everything Howell does and more and is going to be our target at #2.

Either way, him being super familiar with both QBs could be a critical thing for us in making the right decision in April.

This would be fantastic, it would lead to so much more flexibility.

My biggest concern with Howell is he's been Ramseyed. He's broken, and is unfixable. That might be really tough to tell.

I'm somewhat of the draft contrarian, I kindof like Maye better than Williams, because I believe height really does matter. Sure it's only a 3 inch difference between the two of them, but size matters. (And yes, I phrased it that way intentionally, and yes, please have fun with that. )

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

Voice_of_Reason But how often does that happen (a bad GM survives but a good HC is fired)? Tenn seems like an outlier to me… I feel like you have to have someone with definitive final say. Doesn’t mean they are immune to input and can’t make decisions in collaboration with others, but I think Harris wants someone strong and decisive. I think a very strong GM will also help ensure Harris stays in his lane and is not tempted to become too involved.

Beyond the Tenn scenario, why don’t you like the more vertical structure?

I see the roster construction and the coaching of the team as equally important, equally hard, and completely dependent on each other.

I'd also argue I think Art Smith is probably a pretty good coach. GM couldn't find a QB. Coach is fired, GM is still there.

There was a chance Eberflus was going to get fired in Chicago but Poles stayed.

Of the job openings this year,
- 2 fired Coach-do-it-all people: Ron and Bill Belichick. Neither one of them did "coach centric" right.
- 2 firings I think were somewhat unfair: Tennessee and Atlanta. GM failed, coach took the fall.
- 1 firing was because the coach is a complete and total egomaniacal maniac and should never have been hired: McDaniels in Las Vegas
- 1 firing is because the coach CLEARLY was underperforming the talent of the roster: The guy with the LA Chargers who's name I don't remember and don't care enough to look up
- 1 firing was because Carroll is too old.
- 1 firing is because the owner is desperately trying to be Dan Snyder: Reich in Carolina.

I just prefer an "on the same level" between the talent acquisition and the coaching. It's been my preference for decades. I don't think GMs can coach, or coaches can GM. And I don't think one should report to the other.

 

[Primus Porcus]

At an absolute minimum, Howell will not be cast aside simply because of his draft status. He will truly be evaluated as a player, for that, I'm happy. Peters is coming from an organization that has invested it's future in a QB who was the last pick in the draft. They may very well move on from him, but at least it's because for valid reasons.

 

[Bulldog]

Why would Washington trade Howell?

If they draft a quarterback they have TWO guys on rookie deals, one with 17 starts under his belt.

No need to go out and sign a 33 year old veteran backup and pay him $5-10M.

I couldn’t see Johnson going to the Panthers who are becoming Snyder South with Tepper showing a poor temperament as owner.

 

[Boone]

I think by 'move on' ST means draft another guy and relegate Howell to the back up role.

 

[Primus Porcus]

Why would Washington trade Howell?

If they draft a quarterback they have TWO guys on rookie deals, one with 17 starts under his belt.

No need to go out and sign a 33 year old veteran backup and pay him $5-10M.

I couldn’t see Johnson going to the Panthers who are becoming Snyder South with Tepper showing a poor temperament as owner.

By move on, I mean bring in his replacement as the starting QB.

 

[Bulldog]

I think we are headed down that road, like it or not. Howell may very well get a chance again if that quarterback taken at second overall goes down with an injury or is not ready to play right away and perhaps with a second chance, he balls out and scratches his way back to being a starter, even if ultimately through a trade to another team when all is said and done.

You can never say never though because the case example of Robert Griffin III and Kirk Cousins is out there.

Cousins was an afterthought draft pick and ended up after some rough games throwing interceptions establishing himself as a very productive NFL starter while Griffin ended up as a career backup in other places.

 

[Primus Porcus]

I think we are headed down that road, like it or not. Howell may very well get a chance again if that quarterback taken at second overall goes down with an injury or is not ready to play right away and perhaps with a second chance, he balls out and scratches his way back to being a starter, even if ultimately through a trade to another team when all is said and done.

You can never say never though because the case example of Robert Griffin III and Kirk Cousins is out there.

Cousins was an afterthought draft pick and ended up after some rough games throwing interceptions establishing himself as a very productive NFL starter while Griffin ended up as a career backup in other places.

San Fran traded up and drafted Trey Lance... Brock Purdy is their starting QB after being taken last in the NFL draft.

The guy who was supposedly the brainchild behind the personnel department is now our GM. The best player will play no matter what, which was my point. If they decide to move on from him, it's not going to be because of his draft status

 

[Chris]

You don’t think Shanahan and maybe Lynch engineered that pick?

 

[Primus Porcus]

You don’t think Shanahan and maybe Lynch engineered that pick?

whether they engineered it or not, Peters watched it happen, and watched it prosper, which resets the eye line for anyone who sees it first hand. Even if he's not the one who made the decision, to see it changes perspective.

 

[Chris]

whether they engineered it or not, Peters watched it happen, and watched it prosper, which resets the eye line for anyone who sees it first hand. Even if he's not the one who made the decision, to see it changes perspective.

I mistakenly thought you were blaming the Lance pick on Peters. Sorry about that.

 

[Bulldog]

SilentThreat, blaming Peters for the pick of Lance is again like blaming Kyle Smith for the drafting of Dwayne Haskins.

It seemed clear that Kyle Shanahan identified Trey Lance as a star in the making (despite a very limited sample size) and he heavily influenced that pick.

What I look for when judging scouts and front office people outside of the identified GM and now involved Head Coaches around the NFL, is what the team did AFTER the first round draft pick.

Let's face it. Shanahan has the time to scout quarterbacks but he doesn't have the time to look at safeties, linebackers, fullbacks, corners, etc.

Those picks in Rounds 2-7 are essentially the ones where Lynch and Peters were most involved in making the key decisions.

So, while I don't blame Peters for Trey Lance I give him slight credit only for a pick like Nick Bosa, that was a pick I think Washington could have made.

But Fred Werner? George Kittle? Isofanga? Greenlaw?

Guys that find first team all-pros and pro bowlers in Rounds 3-7 like these players is doing something right.

And as with Brady, the 49ers did select Purdy. It was a wild shot pick, granted, but it hit.

Didn't Bobby Beathard do the same thing with some misses in Round 2 but finding contributors on Super Bowl teams in Rounds 5-12?

And so bottom line San Francisco has a guy that produced top 5 numbers this season even though it wasn't Lance.

And he's working on a contract that pays him $1.5M next year.

Meanwhile Dallas is set to pay Dak Prescott $59M, the Giants $40M to Jones, etc.

To its credit SF as an organization realized its mistake on Lance and traded him before investing a $180M second contract in him.

If Washington had ever learned to move ON from its mistakes and trade guys when they had value this team would have been a lot better on the field.

 

[burgold]

How our prospects did:

Harbaugh: Won College National Championship
Johnson: Won playoff game 1 against Rams
Slowik: Annihilated Browns playoff game 1
Quinn: Lost to Greenbay at home. Slaughtered.
Vrabel: Fired and sitting at home.
Belichik: Fired and sitting at home.

 

[Chris]

Johnson’s and Slowik’s offenses stat-ed out pretty similarly. One didn’t have the advantage of 2 defensive td’s.

Houston passing- 16/21 274 yds 3 Tds 0 sacks
Houston rushing- 22/76 3.59 ypc

Detroit passing- 22/27 277 yds 1 Td 3 sacks
Detroit rushing- 25/79 3.16 ypc

Run/Pass Balance-

Houston- 51.5%
Detroit- 48.0%

 

[burgold]

It is interesting that despite Houston blowing out the Browns it ended with fewer rushing attempts than Detroit whose game was as close as you could get against the Rams.