Commander's Draft Shocker - What'll it be?

6

  • Chase Young traded in draft day deal?

    Votes: 1 11.1%

  • Commanders take a QB?

    Votes: 2 22.2%

  • Bijan Robinson at pick 16?

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Big 1st round trade up?

    Votes: 2 22.2%

  • Trade up for a second 1st round pick?

    Votes: 1 11.1%

  • Trade down for additional picks?

    Votes: 3 33.3%

  • Something else (please comment)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Total voters
    9
I hope not ST. We have so many needs and there is tons of talent available at those positions. If they want to trade Chase Young for an extra pick to go after an EDGE guy, I'm okay with that. But I want to see needs filled the first 3 rounds (unless there is a QB they are in love with).
 
Boone said:
I hope not ST. We have so many needs and there is tons of talent available at those positions. If they want to trade Chase Young for an extra pick to go after an EDGE guy, I'm okay with that. But I want to see needs filled the first 3 rounds (unless there is a QB they are in love with).
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I'm starting to think it's a good idea though.

in the NFL... We ALL know there are premium positions. Positions that make more than the others.

QB
LT
WR

and...
EDGE.

We all agree QB is probably off the table.
We all agree an LT likely will not be on the board when we get there
We all agree a WR at 16 would be a major luxury

That leaves Edge... and is there a need?

Here is the current players 'under contract' for 2024... and Young is presumed as the pick up of the 5th year option.

1682522316927.png



Current calculated market values for Young ($18.2M) and Sweat (16.6M... haha ok sure, i wish). No chance Sweat signs for an AAV of $16.6M... Franchise tag for a DE is $19.7M THIS year... it will be north of $20M after 2023, and Sweat's camp knows it, which is why I think $22.5M is the starting point... Daron Payne's AAV. Now on the surface, that's not a huge deal, but you don't just have to solidify the position... you've got to rebuild it. They likely know this... and they are yet to pick up Young's option... which could still happen, but i wouldn't bet on it.

The D-Line as WHOLE currently counts as 27.81% of the cap for 2023, and that's with Payne being a cap hit of $8.61M. In 2024, the cap hit for the D-line as of NOW is 27.52% of the cap.. (again, they're assuming Chase Young's hit of $17M). IF you pick up Young's option, you're walking into 2024 with THE SAME D-Line cap % with only 3 DEs under contract.

Currently we have 9 DEs under contract (additoinaly some of these DE's play double duty as a DT also).... the above scenario with the same cap % (again, if you don't sign Sweat and you pick up Young's option) we have 3. IF you pay Sweat $20M+ and you don't pick up Young... you've already commited MORE cap % to the D-Line while still only having 3 DE's under contract.... so you can use your imagination about what I think the likelyhood we sign BOTH of those guys is...

welp... this popped as I was typing all this



Here's possibly the out.

The Rookie Pay Scale. Our Pick (16) is scaled like this:

1682523818795.png


Draft a 1st round EDGE player who's going to DROP your % of Cap along D-lIne down well low enough to bring back a large number of those guys we currently have expiring contracts on... It also allows you to move on from Young, and maybe even Sweat, as you've drafted their successor. Moving on also doesn't mean next year, it could be this year, meaning a sign / trade is now on the table, obviously upping their value.
 
I don't agree QB is off the table - QB is never off the table if you are a smart front office.

I wish they'd just go ahead and cut bait and get what they can for Young but I think if that were going to happen, you don't even announce this because all it does is further reduce his stock and your leverage. Of course, there may be a deal in place but if there were the place why not just go ahead and announce THAT vs. this?
 
Boone said:
I don't agree QB is off the table - QB is never off the table if you are a smart front office.

I wish they'd just go ahead and cut bait and get what they can for Young but I think if that were going to happen, you don't even announce this because all it does is further reduce his stock and your leverage. Of course, there may be a deal in place but if there were the place why not just go ahead and announce THAT vs. this?
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Until the team states it the "per sources" stuff means little to me. This could be a nothing burger and is just pre-draft fluff to see if it causes Edge rushers to go earlier than expected which could free up an OT to drop. However this takes the belief that the team is brilliant in manipulating the media which we've seen zero evidence of, ever and would also require me to believe they actually are this crafty, which is, no.
 
Keim is even reporting it. It apparently is coming from Young's agent. And based on Rivera's most recent comments, I believe it. But we'll see I guess. Not sure why they feel the need to let that news out pre-draft unless a) they are signaling trade availability, or b) they DO plan on taking an edge rusher early as ST thinks may be the plan and they want to provide a rationale for why they would do that.

I'm not smart enough to be able to read the tea leaves on stuff like this :)
 
If the agent is the source could this be a sour grapes move right before the draft on Young and his agents part to cause a little chaos, little vindictive if the agent is the course imo.
 
SkinsOrlando said:
If the agent is the source could this be a sour grapes move right before the draft on Young and his agents part to cause a little chaos, little vindictive if the agent is the course imo.
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I've heard that the 'sources' were from both sides, and the agent part was to confirm that the agent and Young's team has been notified of this prior it to coming out to the media. Right thing to do BTW, whether you agree with the move or not.

I guess there could be posturing on both sides, this figurative "friday news dump" on the eve of the draft isn't only for trade value, it's very easily going to be washed out with the ACTUAL NFL news in the sports media tomorrow because there's 256 other topics to address, as well as the fact that it came out 2 hours before Aaron Rodgers presser in New York. I think the timing is less about posturing, and more about throwing hazmat into the flowing river to be swept away instead of up stream in a pool where it's going to be noticed.
 
Could possibly be, hide the story in the weeds type deal as you suggest.
 
I have a hard time believing that there is organized subterfuge being exercised.

I doubt that anyone outside of Washington really cares. Chase knows and he will still be here next season (unless the team wants to trade him at his lowest value point).
 
Chris said:
I have a hard time believing that there is organized subterfuge being exercised.

I doubt that anyone outside of Washington really cares. Chase knows and he will still be here next season (unless the team wants to trade him at his lowest value point).
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I have little doubt that Rivera is very interested in social media and the perception of his moves...
 
Of course we could. We have that ability. Anything is possible.

I hate that we have descended into ignorance so far that this kind of post is considered "reporting".
 
FWIW, the PFF live mock guys just had us picking edge Van Ness at 16. No question it's an argument you can make given where we are with Sweat and Young.

Derek's been on this for a while, so future contingent props if it happens. :)
 
Thank you Neophyte. I was trying to figure out how to say basically the same thing. Anything can happen, it’s the draft. We could Kevin Costner our way into the perfect draft. I don’t have confidence in that, but it COULD happen.
 
I get we can now argue edge is a need, but is it in our top 3 needs? I’m going to be really disappointed if we don’t solidify our OL or DBs in the first 2 rounds.
 
This fascination with continuing to draft DL high and largely ignoring other positions, signing mid-tier free agents and using middle round picks isn't going to work towards building a contender.

At some point this team is going to have to find a LT, TE, OLB, CB at these other impact positions.

I recall John Nash with the old Bullets drafting Juwan Howard, trading for Chris Webber, and then drafting Rasheed Wallace.

He ultimately discovered to his chagrin that he had 3 power forwards on the team but no legitimate center and no backcourt.

When he did finally move off the rock he traded Rasheed Wallace for an aging Rod Strickland, which turned out to be one of the team's worst deals.

The lesson is to put a TEAM together and not to concentrate to many resources at any one position, except quarterback in the NFL, and legitimate top 5 franchise performers in the NBA and NHL.

Because MLB has no strict salary cap there is greater flexibility in managing the roster year to year, depending upon how much luxury tax money the owners are willing to shoulder.
 
But we also can't cut off our noses to spite our faces. We're in this position. I made that argument based on where we are today... not the last 10 years.

I wouldn't be here... I would have Christian Darrisaw as our LT instead of Jamin Davis as our starting LB. Actually I'd have Trent Williams here as my starting LT, but that's a whole other conversation.

Where we are NOW is that we have 2 offensive Tackles under contract in 2024 making OT starter money. Meanwhile we now have NO DE's under contract in 2024... not just starters... NONE.

Battles have to be picked, and the team has to be built. Decisions to this point, have put us in this position and to not address EDGE in a serious way is dangerous. That doesn't necessarily mean 16.. but something. We're not picking up Young's option... so the next rung on the ladder would be to sign Sweat.... but at the number he's likely to command... the cap commitment to the D-line is MASSIVE, and the only way I can personally see to remedy that without sacrificing big time the talent on the field, is to spend draft capital.

I want a better LT, i just don't know that it's their line of thinking right now... and we could find ourselves in a bad spot 12 months from now if we're not careful.
 
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I personally think this is short sided... but they might be right.. I just dont see the numbers working out.

And to be fair.. I don't blame Rivera and Co for being short sided about things... their window is closing. I'm looking at it from the perspective of a fan who wants long term, consistent success....




Hope I'm wrong.. Fastest way to success is the current roster.
 
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