There are absolutely exceptions. No question.
Vermeil won a SB with the Rams after almost getting a ring with the Eagles.
Reid did the same with KC.
Carroll succeeded in Seattle where he failed with the Jets.
Then you have Arians and Belichick who both won Super Bowls in second stints with Brady at QB.
There are your exceptions.
So far, no SB winning coach has ever gone somewhere else and won it again. Parcells came closest.
Payton has his ring and right now I think the smart money is on him to do something similar to Parcells - get close somewhere else but ultimately miss out.
This is an interesting conversation. I was curious so I looked it up. There are a few more names of guys who won in their second coaching jobs. But you are correct that no one won with one team then went to another and won. Parcells and Mike Holmgren went back to the SB with another team but lost. Ironically, Holmgren gave Pacells his SB loss. There are however a few big names that won their first SB on their second team and a few guys who are just footnotes in history. I’m listing the teams they started with and then their Super Bowl winning team.
Weeb Ewbank - Super Bowl 3 (Colts first then Jets)
Don Shula - Super Bowls 6 and 7 (Colts then Dolphins)
Then a long break before you start seeing it some more:
Mike Shanahan - Super Bowls 32 and 33 (Raiders then Broncos)
Dick Vermeil - Super Bowl 34 (Eagles then Rams)
Bill Belichick Super Bowls 36, 38, 39, 49, 51, 53 (Browns then Patriots)
Jon Gruden - Super Bowl 37 (Raiders then Bucs)
Tony Dungy - Super Bowl 41 (Bucs then Colts)
Tom Coughlin - Super Bowls 42 and 46 (Jags then Giants)
Pete Carroll - Super Bowl 48 (Patriots then Seahawks)
Gary Kubiak - Super Bowl 50 (Texans then Broncos)
Andy Reid - Super Bowl 54 (Eagles then Chiefs)
Bruce Arians - Super Bowl 55 (Cardinals then Bucs)
12 of the 35 Super Bowl winning coaches did it with their second team after having various levels of success with their first team. Some were good, while others were pretty much a bust. And it’s been a more recent trend, although we know the early days of the Super Bowl were dominated by dynasties and Hall of Fame coaches. Coaches get fired more frequently these days and even good ones let go. Some have found success on their second team.
Also, honorable mention to Dan Reeves and John Fox who took two different teams to Super Bowls, but they never won. Still impressive though.