The Gruden Files - Year Two

[Ax]

My D+ was a one game grade. The 1st grade of the 2nd quarter of the season.

I gave him a C- for the 1st quarter of the season. So, I think the D+ for this game is right in line.

I think his flip-flopping RB's is foolish, and unproductive. I think he still looks completely lost at times. Though not as often as last year.

It's also becoming pretty clear, at least to me, that he is calling very conservative passing plays trying to protect Kirk from even more criticism. And, to cover his own ass. He's hitched his wagon to Kirk. If Kirk fails, so does Gruden. Only bigger.

He is only running more, this year, trying to protect Kirk. Something he didn't do much for that other guy. He has improved, some. But it's gonna have to get better than this before I learn to like it.

 

[stevenaa]

I'll go with a solid C. He's improved and seems more like a HC. The team as a whole has improved and he has a hand in that. He's made some changes to his staff and involvement that show improvement. I don't think you can compare the Defensive improvement to the Offensive improvement. I think we see more confirmation just how bad Haslett was. Jay has a ways to go. He may grow he may not. If he doesn't, I'm confident Scott will go shopping. With the improvements we've seen in the organizational structure, and talent acquisition, we're a much more attractive team. I think we've all become so entrenched in our own ideas of how to improve, given the team has been so clueless for so long, we're not seeing the forest for the trees. We've argued this crap for so long, yet it never really mattered who was right or wrong. We were gonna suck one way or the other anyway. That's the change. That no longer appears to be the case.

 

[Elephant]

I'll go with a solid C. He's improved and seems more like a HC. The team as a whole has improved and he has a hand in that. He's made some changes to his staff and involvement that show improvement. I don't think you can compare the Defensive improvement to the Offensive improvement. I think we see more confirmation just how bad Haslett was. Jay has a ways to go. He may grow he may not. If he doesn't, I'm confident Scott will go shopping. With the improvements we've seen in the organizational structure, and talent acquisition, we're a much more attractive team. I think we've all become so entrenched in our own ideas of how to improve, given the team has been so clueless for so long, we're not seeing the forest for the trees. We've argued this crap for so long, yet it never really mattered who was right or wrong. We were gonna suck one way or the other anyway. That's the change. That no longer appears to be the case.

That seems to be the point...there is visible progress with this team, I just don't understand how the offense is all on Gruden when it appears that McVay and Callahan are calling plays, but the defense it is entirely Barry?

Ax, I can see a single game at D+, but wouldn't go that low...I really thought you were saying overall for the year. Yes, Gruden is making mistakes...the RB carousel is the most obvious. You need to establish a run with Morris, heshould be given a chance to get into a rhythm. Is Lavauo's absence that big a loss?

Regardless, I think Gruden is doing much better, I think our team as a whole is far better than last year. I think Cousins is the best QB on our team and I think our receivers are over rated by many on this site. Grant, Carrier and even Garcon at times Sunday were not getting separation. It was pointed out on the radio today that the Falcons were going with man coverage most of the game. If we cannot get guys open on man coverage, that is on the receivers.

We are not very good team...we are not a "bad" team, just not enough talent. We are still lacking talent at key positions. We still have some growing to do. However, if we see the same amount of progress from Gruden's year one as we've seen so far this year...going into next year with more talent, we can start talking about a solid playoff team.

 

[Goaldeje]

I went and looked at the last two years worth of gamelogs for Alfred, under Gruden, to check his carries. There have been 21 games played, and he has received 13 or fewer carries 6 times. In 2014 against the Giants, he had 12 carries for 63 yards, by far his best production with limited carries (interestingly, he also had three receptions for 27 yards that game too, increasing his touches). The highest YPC outside of that game with 13 or fewer carries was 3.6; the lowest was 0.8 ypc. On average, with 13 or fewer carries, he averages 35 yards per game with a 2.92 yards per carry average.

14 or more carries is different, as you might imagine. 267 carries with 1135 total yards for 75.6 yards per game average and 4.25 yards per carry average.

As a subset of more than 13 carries, when we rush him 20+ times a game, things look slightly better. That has only happened 6 times under Gruden, for 132 carries and 587 yards, or 92.8 yards a game and 4.45 yards per carry average.

Obviously statistics don't tell the whole story, there are many other variables as well. I did not include any time spent under Shanahan since that was a different system, and I think the read option opened up some things that just aren't there under Gruden. Alfred had one game this year with 20+ carries, and he broke out 121 yards in that game, but hasn't been able to get anything going since then with 18, 6, 17 and 8 carries since then. His best game since the opener was the Philly game with 17 carries for 62 yards and a 3.6 ypc.

As Henry said, Gruden needs to pick a runner and give them a lot of carries. If he really wants to evaluate both Morris and Jones, so be it. Neither of them is going to be that successful with 10 carries one game, then 15 the next, then 7 the following and so on. He needs to give 17+ to one in one game, then 17+ to the other in the following game until he is done evaluating.

And frankly, I'm starting to question his intelligence if he feels he needs to evaluate Morris. Dude is a good hard runner who got it done against the Fins just fine, and then Gruden pulled his carries. Neither runner is going to look good with this flip-flopping crap.

 

[Boone]

Obviously ability right now isn't the only measuring stick Goal. Age, RB shelf life, cost to do a new contract vs remaining shelf life - those are all big factors. I suspect we'll do a long-term deal with Alfred due to what you focused on, but when you have a lot of needs on a rebuilding team, it's wise to make sure you know what you've got before inking a big deal. That's smart, not incompetent. I also believe 'you have to pick one back and run that guy the majority of the time to have success' is stated as fact but it may not be a fact.


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[Boone]

There's a difference between starting multiple players because your top back got injured or you don't really have great backs vs. having multiple great backs (I would argue we have multiple very solid backs at a minimum). I think that's a pretty obvious difference. You can post another 10 years of stats if you like and I think my point is still obvious. Apparently it's possible to use multiple backs and still have great success. All you've shown is that it's the norm for teams to settle on one back and use him most of the time. We all know that. Doing it differently doesn't equate to failure (unless you see failure everywhere ).


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[Goaldeje]

Obviously ability right now isn't the only measuring stick Goal. Age, RB shelf life, cost to do a new contract vs remaining shelf life - those are all big factors. I suspect we'll do a long-term deal with Alfred due to what you focused on, but when you have a lot of needs on a rebuilding team, it's wise to make sure you know what you've got before inking a big deal. That's smart, not incompetent. I also believe 'you have to pick one back and run that guy the majority of the time to have success' is stated as fact but it may not be a fact.


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But we know what we have in Alfred. He has been the only consistent weapon we could depend on for the last two years. And Henry (in another thread) and I have shown that he needs more carries to be productive. I can understanding wanting to find ways to get Jones in the game, because his size and speed are intoxicating. But, imo, Gruden is getting lost in potential vs. reality. We don't "owe" Alfred anything. Past production doesn't mean he is guaranteed anything moving forward.

But the fact is that he is the most proven back we have. Gruden experimented, and gave Jones more touches, and he ran well, really well, but he also fumbled at a horrible time (because there are good times to fumble ).

The fact that Gruden has thus far failed to realize he is worsening his chance to win a game by sitting Morris for Jones is worrisome. That may change in the future, but for now, it is concerning. Whether it is fair or not, it seems to me that Gruden has his favorites, and he will play those guys even in the face of evidence that suggests someone else could perform as well. What he APPEARS to be doing is setting Morris up to fail, to justify his decision to go with Jones.

I know, there is no way to prove any of this, but given the Cousins/Griffin boondogle, you'll have to forgive my skepticism.

 

[MikeSr619]

I remember the 91 season when we had Byner, Ervins, and Riggs in the backfield. All were great backs and there were times when Ervins seemed to have the hot hand. But Gibbs stuck with Byner because he was the proven back. It showed commitment and helped him get over 1000 yards that season.

 

[Boone]

You guys are ignoring the fact that we've had a great running attack mixing in all 3 guys in 3 of 5 games. It's the lack of holes against the Giants and Falcons that was the problem, not which guy was rushing.


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[MikeSr619]

I'm not ignoring we have a great attack, but I don't think splitting time is a smart idea. Not 50/50 at least. If Jones is the feature back, bring in morris for change of pace and vice versa. But someone needs 20-30 carries to get a feel and some rhythm going in the game. Every runner says they need reps to get going.

 

[Goaldeje]

You guys are ignoring the fact that we've had a great running attack mixing in all 3 guys in 3 of 5 games. It's the lack of holes against the Giants and Falcons that was the problem, not which guy was rushing.


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If THAT'S the case, then I don't think we have any "special" backs on our roster right now. We need guys who can find the holes no matter how it is blocked. In the past, that has been Alfred, and if you look at the number of carries statistics, the more you give him, the more he produces. How many times over the last three years have you yourself in chat said that Alfred made something out of nothing on that play?

 

[Chris]

Multiple backs with an unproven qb and an unproven rookie(ish) head coach in an unproven system? What could go wrong?

 

[Boone]

I'm not worried about our run game - you guys are. Our backs are a strength not a weakness. The Giants have our number and that's not new and the Falcons just shut the run game down. It happens. All the 3 headed monster theorizing is just the latest overreaction by fans imho.


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[micks113]

You guys are ignoring the fact that we've had a great running attack mixing in all 3 guys in 3 of 5 games. It's the lack of holes against the Giants and Falcons that was the problem, not which guy was rushing.


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Exactly, we kept pounding up the middle while I was screaming for off-tackle and misdirection running plays.

 

[Boone]

Multiple backs with an unproven qb and an unproven rookie(ish) head coach in an unproven system? What could go wrong?

You either have the stomach for rebuilding or you don't.


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[micks113]

I went and looked at the last two years worth of gamelogs for Alfred, under Gruden, to check his carries. There have been 21 games played, and he has received 13 or fewer carries 6 times. In 2014 against the Giants, he had 12 carries for 63 yards, by far his best production with limited carries (interestingly, he also had three receptions for 27 yards that game too, increasing his touches). The highest YPC outside of that game with 13 or fewer carries was 3.6; the lowest was 0.8 ypc. On average, with 13 or fewer carries, he averages 35 yards per game with a 2.92 yards per carry average.

14 or more carries is different, as you might imagine. 267 carries with 1135 total yards for 75.6 yards per game average and 4.25 yards per carry average.

As a subset of more than 13 carries, when we rush him 20+ times a game, things look slightly better. That has only happened 6 times under Gruden, for 132 carries and 587 yards, or 92.8 yards a game and 4.45 yards per carry average.

Obviously statistics don't tell the whole story, there are many other variables as well. I did not include any time spent under Shanahan since that was a different system, and I think the read option opened up some things that just aren't there under Gruden. Alfred had one game this year with 20+ carries, and he broke out 121 yards in that game, but hasn't been able to get anything going since then with 18, 6, 17 and 8 carries since then. His best game since the opener was the Philly game with 17 carries for 62 yards and a 3.6 ypc.

As Henry said, Gruden needs to pick a runner and give them a lot of carries. If he really wants to evaluate both Morris and Jones, so be it. Neither of them is going to be that successful with 10 carries one game, then 15 the next, then 7 the following and so on. He needs to give 17+ to one in one game, then 17+ to the other in the following game until he is done evaluating.

And frankly, I'm starting to question his intelligence if he feels he needs to evaluate Morris. Dude is a good hard runner who got it done against the Fins just fine, and then Gruden pulled his carries. Neither runner is going to look good with this flip-flopping crap.

Would you mind checking out the games we started from behind and forced Gruden to throw and abandon the run? I'm too computer stupid to find all that out. But I know it was a lot.

 

[Chris]

You either have the stomach for rebuilding or you don't.


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I have no problem with rebuilding, I have a problem with the general contractor.

 

[Goaldeje]

Yeah, I spent too much time on that as it was this morning. Check out Henry's post this morning where he points out we have been in EVERY game this year, and Gruden still goes away from Morris. Point spread has little or nothing to do with this decision, imo.

 

[Elephant]

Would you mind checking out the games we started from behind and forced Gruden to throw and abandon the run? I'm too computer stupid to find all that out. But I know it was a lot.

Yeah, I spent too much time on that as it was this morning. Check out Henry's post this morning where he points out we have been in EVERY game this year, and Gruden still goes away from Morris. Point spread has little or nothing to do with this decision, imo.

Yeah, we have not been far enough behind in any game this year that we needed to air it out to catch up.

 

[Boone]

I have no problem with rebuilding, I have a problem with the general contractor.

Fair enough


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