I'm starting to suspect that when I hit "post reply", my words are being translated to Chinese. But, let me try again.
If I understand your position-and please correct me if I don't-are you stating that the uncertainty you mention of all the other factors make the idea of comparing those in charge of acquiring players to others in the same area of endeavor itself a crapshoot?
In other words, is it your opinion that the influence of things like coaching tenures, scheme changes, coaching skills, and more random influences enough to consider a relative comparison of the performance histories of, say, a Beathard, a Casserly, a Cerrato, a Bruce Allen, a McLoughan, an Ozzie Newsome/Eric DeCosta combo and anyone else one might want to consider as pretty much a waste of time?
What I've said, repeatedly, is that no GM is beyond whiffing, terribly, in the draft. Be it individual picks, or almost an entire draft class. If some are taking that, to think I'm saying that just any ole GM will do, then I've explained myself poorly. Cerrato, has never approached Beathard's average drafts. He's never made anything close to some of the brilliant moves Beathard has. But Beathard, has had a number of Cerrato drafts/moments. He made some moves that Vinny would have said, "WTF is he thinking?"
Is that any clearer?
well..black swans do play into it: low probability, high impact events.
Sorry, my half caff coffee isn't helping me understand what you're trying to say here.
It's an art, not a science. Everyone makes personnel mistakes. But the best GMs consistently outperform the others.
I don't believe this is entirely accurate. I'd agree that the good ones, outperform the bad ones, more times than not. But I don't believe that's the same as "consistently."
Beathard made mistakes. But let's look at his record.
Yes, let's do.
He started in Kansas City where the Chiefs ended up going to 2 Super Bowls, winning Super Bowl IV.
He started as a part time scout in 63. Left to be a scout in the AFL. Returned, as a full time scout in '66. They lost the 1st Super Bowl that year. As a scout, there is no way to know if/how much impact he had on the roster. By the time the Chiefs won SB IV, Beathard had been gone for 2 years. Again, no way to know how much, if any, he was responsible for there. Jack Steadman was GM the whole time Beathard was there. Are you gonna credit a SB win to Beathard, a scout?
Then he moved on to the Dolphins where Miami went to three straight Super Bowls from 1971-73, winning two.
Records indicate this not to be so. In 1968, he left KC and went to work, as a scout, for the Falcons. Who proceeded to go 2-12, 6-8, 4-8-2, and 7-6-1. That kinda smudges the ole resume.
Then, he went to Miami in '72. My knowledge of Miami history isn't great, but a quick search didn't show me anything that indicated his first year there, as a scout, BTW, contributed much at all to that SB victory. I'm sure his contributions to the roster were measurable later on, but I fail to see how he can get much credit for the teams that went to those 3 SB. Shula was the coach/GM. Beathard was part of the mix. But it'd be hard to call him the architect.
When he came to Washington the Redskins had not won a title since World War II.
By the time he left the Redskins Washington had won 2 Super Bowls and been to a third.
He also set up Charley Casserly to go to a fourth.
All true facts. That doesn't erase the fact that he was inconsistent in his drafts.
1978 - His first. Operating under the handcuffs left behind by Allen trading away all of our picks, nobody should've expected much. Bobby didn't disappoint. That draft yielded absolutely nothing.
1979 - One of his best. Still handcuffed by the Allen years of trading away picks, and armed with only a handful of late picks, he hit 3 out of 5. Don Warren & Monte Coleman were two top performers for many years. Major contributors to SB wins. Rich Milot was a damn fine LB. So, as terrible a draft as 78 was, 79 was jackpot. Inconsistent.
1980 - Hard to call a draft that produced HOF'er Art Monk, bad. But out of 8 picks, he got 1 hit. It was a big hit. But the rest were nothing. Inconsistent.
1981 - This was, by far, the greatest draft in franchise history. It set the stage for 4 SB appearances, with 3 wins. This was the best draft of his career, too. He never repeated it. He rode the wave of this draft farther than any wave in his life.
1982 - Average, at best.
1983 - Another very good draft.
1984 - Poor, to very poor.
1985 - Bad
1986 - Average
1987 - Average, at best.
1988 - Average
The many questionable moves he made during his tenure here, were overlooked because of the team winning. And because of the clout he built for himself with the 81 draft. moves like trading the following year's 1st (86), to get that years 2nd (85), to draft Tory Nixon, was as big a miss as anything Cerratto ever did. But like I told serv, Cerratto never made anything close to some of the great moves by Beathard.
When he moved back to the West Coast he built a San Diego Chargers team into a contender with picks like Junior Seau and a quarterback he got from the Skins, Stan Humphries.
To date that's the only Super Bowl San Diego has gone to.
I don't have the patience to delve into the Chargers part of his career. Their SB appearance could have just been a flash in the pan. I don't know. I don't recall him leaving them in great shape. but, I haven't looked into it much either.
Bobby Beathard was the best Redskins GM I know of. His actual record doesn't need the mythical status that some misremember.
Winning is the most powerful elixir in football.
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