Way too early 2024 Wins Projection

[Chris]

ESPN BET has posted it’s 2024 Win Projections.

Here is the number for each of the NFCE teams:

Dallas Cowboys- 10.5 (Dallas has exceeded that number in each of the last 3 seasons)

Philadelphia Eagles- 10.5 (Philly has been under that number in 7 of the last 8 seasons)

New York Giants- 6.5 (NYG have been under that number in 6 of the last 7 seasons)

Washington- 6.5 ( Washington has exceeded that number in 3 of the last seasons)

What say you for Washington? Over or under?

 

[Neophyte]

With any kind of defensive effort, we were above 6.5 last year when we had a less talented roster.

 

[Om]

If I had to bet one way or the other now, before the draft, with Marcus Mariota as the projected starter for the year, I'd take the under without hesitation. Too much transition across the board to provide a steady enough platform for a journeyman.

After the draft I may feel differently, depending on who they bring in, and what their intentions and expectations are for the young QB in his rookie season.

 

[Chris]

Hence the ‘way too early‘ inclusion. 😉

 

[Boone]

With competent coaches, this team is going to have enough talent to contend for a wildcard - massive change notwithstanding. Of course who is at QB and how that goes is a massive factor.

 

[SkinsOrlando]

I'm taking the under, this could be a surprise year or this could be what I expect it to be, year 1 actual rebuild. The draft's going to factor heavily in either and we don't have a damn clue who we're getting at this juncture.

 

[Bulldog]

Well, we are drafting a quarterback. There is no chance the plan was to go with Mariota as the starter with no one else in the quarterback room other than Jeff Driskel and Jake Fromm.

I would have to say the odds are about right, perhaps I would lean over the fence and say 7 wins, so a bit over.

I do think the Eagles are getting way too much respect. You don't just fire the coordinators and bring in a new group of players but leave the head coach in place and the balance of the roster and expect everything to mesh.

You would think changes of this magnitude would have started with the head coach.

Now, the players have a mixed message - the team underperformed in 2023 and the staff was in large measure responsible for it but the headman is being kept (??).

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

If we draft Daniels, I think there's a good chance we go over.

If we draft Maye, I think there's a good chance we go under.

I want us to draft Maye because I think he has a higher ceiling and less injury prone, but I think it's going to take him a year PLAYING to get his feet under him.

I think Daniels is the safer pick and could produce more quickly. But I don't think he can win exclusively from the pocket and I think he's going to get hurt if they expose him as a runner, which is why I prefer Maye.

 

[Solitary Man]

If we go 2-4 in the division, then we have to go 5-6 outside to get the over. Last place schedule. Competent coaching. Leadership. Upgraded talent. I say we go over.

 

[Ozhog65]

I voted over just because I'm a glass half full kinda guy

Hopefully the feel good, honeymoon factor of the new regime is worth a win or two.

 

[Knightingale]

I went with the over. Mostly because I'm always optimistic about the team.

I'm trying to temper my enthusiasm this year as I'm well aware that drafting a QB this high is a crapshoot that is more likely to flame out than succeed immediately.
But I'm also really happy with what the team is doing to support the kid. It REALLY appears like they have a plan to support this rookie and nurture him in the correct way, which a lot of teams don't do.

I tend to think that the defensive additions are going to lift the Defense (the Wagner and Luvu additions alone will do that, plus we know have coaches that are truly bought in running the show) and if we can put together a semblance of a decent OLine we should be better on offense too. I see it all adding up to more than 7. Playoffs? No. But I think we'll see a return to the 7 or 8 win range setting us up for future success.

 

[Kel Varnsen]

I looked at the opponents for next year and figured what is the likely best case scenario and likely worst case scenario is. Obviously the best case scenario is 17 wins and the worst case is 0 wins, but neither is likely. So what is the likely record if there is no catastrophic injuries or there isn’t some out of this world play. Just the normal improvement I expect this team to make. What is the best I could see and what is the worst.

The likely best case is 10 wins (3 division, 3 NFC South, 3 last place opponents, 1 AFC North)
The likely worst case is 6 wins. (2 division wins, 2 NFC South wins, 2 last place opponents)

So somewhere between 6 and 10 wins is what I expect to be likely. So 75% chance of being over and 25% chance of under.

 

[Bulldog]

We're going 17-0. According to Chris Simms all you have to do is take the next great star, Jayden Daniels, and sit back and watch him work

Evidently, he's elite in almost every rating category.

He's easy to spot on his visits, he's the one wearing the cape

 

[Chris]

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

We're going 17-0. According to Chris Simms all you have to do is take the next great star, Jayden Daniels, and sit back and watch him work

Evidently, he's elite in almost every rating category.

He's easy to spot on his visits, he's the one wearing the cape

What’s the difference between Chris Simms and a catfish?

one is a scum sucking bottom dweller.

The other is a fish.

 

[Bulldog]

Simms and Merril Hoge are two of the most extreme voices out there - to hear them they act as if they have been NFL GMs for years and are 100% sure about their evaluations.

Since most NFL GMs say picking a quarterback is often a 50/50 proposition at the top of the draft, it seems clear these evals are more to make them controversial and get eyeballs.

That said, when I watched Simms' latest wrap-up it was just so smug and over the top, I just had to turn around and throw up.

If Daniels was that unique Caleb Williams would not be the top rated passer by 80% of the evals we have seen out there.

 

[tshile]

Even Jim Zorn started 6-2

There’s something to be said about rolling out a brand new team with lots new of players and coaches, and a new scheme on both sides of the ball. There’s no film on it yet.

At some point there’s enough film. Good coaches find a way to continue to win. Bad coaches get exposed and start losing a lot.

This is why backup QBs can step in randomly and look good - but give them 2-4 starts and suddenly you see why they were a backup to begin with.

6 wins is really low from a gambling perspective. If I were setting the number, given what I just outlined, it’d be more like 9. Which is to say nothing about how good or bad the team will actually be, just that they have an advantage for several weeks to start the season.

 

[Boone]

I think sometimes, with a new regime, there is not a lot of early pressure and that lends itself to teams playing loose and aggressively. So I expect a good season, perhaps 'challenge for a wildcard' good. I think with Quinn and Whitt's familiarity with NFC East opponents, we will see major improvements in our divisional play.

 

[Chris]

I think it’s a decent number for this early. I would have set it at 7 to get more action.

I will need to know who is the QB starting game 1 and when the projected change will be. (Basically will Mariotta start the season and for how long.) Same at LT.

My only other major question is will the defensive backfield be, at least, serviceable.

 

[Bulldog]

the defensive backfield has been a mess. some of it has been slow performing draft picks, but a lot of the uncertainty has been the inability of almost everyone to stay healthy.

St. Juste, Forrest, Butler, etc. These guys need to stay healthy or we need to move on from them.

Is Forbes over 175 yet? His arms look like chicken wings