Washington Commanders 2025 Season: Expectations

9-8 is the new 8-8 though so you probably don't make it to the playoffs.

I think it would take Hurtz and Barkley to both miss most of the year for 9-8 to get us to the playoffs.
 
I think the reason this season is so hard to predict is because this is still a roster that is very much a work in progress. This is offseason #2 for the current front office and the first offseason was heavily aided by the fact that the QB drafted turned out to be the guy from the very beginning which very likely made other pieces on the team look better and was good for more wins and a playoff run that wouldn't have been possible had Jayden Daniels taken the normal 2-3 seasons to really turn into that level of player. This roster still features some aging vets that aren't part of the long term plans that you hope don't fall off a cliff all of a sudden. Eckler showed me more than I was expecting last season but he also showed that with his age and history he is always going to be susceptible to missing chunks of games, almost another Jordan Reed situation besides the fact that Eckler made it longer into his career. Ertz lost some of his physical ability but his hands stayed super reliable, but I will still more feel better about the TE room is Sinnott or anyone at this point emerges enought to actually cut into the amount of snaps Ertz is getting.

All things considered, I think 2025 & 2026 seasons are still going to be more a feeling of "it could happen" vs "it should happen" (as far as competing for the trophy). After the 2026 season we should have a much better look at what the core of this team is going to look like going into JD5's early years of his extension.
 
Man if that Rookie RB turns out to be as good as he looks this offense is going to be ridiculous.

It just makes me wonder how the hell he wasn't drafted earlier.

Daniels with a RB who can routinely make plays, AND Deebo too, shit! AND they still have Ekeler.
 
Meh. What was so lucky? The Hail Mary? Don’t forget we dominated most of that game and had plenty of bad luck in it. In fact, I’d say there was good and bad luck in every game. And I have to say neither the Pittsburgh game or the Dallas game felt very lucky at the end. Yes, we pulled a bunch out at the end, because our unicorn quarterback possesses the clutch gene. That’s not going away. It’s football and almost every game is close. A great QB can pull out more than your share of those games and make you look lucky… I mean didn’t Tom Brady just “get lucky“ for like 20 straight years??

I second the, "luck" argument you are making. As much as our win in the second Dallas game took some luck, it was reeeeaaaaaaallly bad luck to not go into overtime in the 1st Dallas game. Did we benefit from the Giants not having a kicker and Nabers dropping that pass? Sure. But we hadn't really found our identity at that point. It was Jayden's 2nd game. And we had a new coach, new QB, new offense, new everything. We wouldn't have needed that luck by the time our team was mid way through the season. Ditto the Bears game, with Daniels still nursing those ribs. He didn't look the same with that injury.
 
Every team gets some luck vs bad luck during the course of the season. Something that is hard to be at peace with is the fact that even really good teams play a good number of close games every season due to whatever the circumstances are going into any specific game. You could easily say Baker Mayfield's unforced fumble against Tampa is why the team even got a chance to crush Detroit. You can also say the Eagles only got to the conference championship because of how the weather affected the Rams passing game. The Luck vs Bad luck game can definitely affect individual games but usually not entire seasons outside of a roster being so ravaged by injuries.
 
We have a special, special kid at quarterback.

If he is healthy, we will be in almost every game.

I don't see why a NFCCG appearance is out of the question.

Heck, I think they'll win the Super Bowl if Daniels stays healthy and the rest of the club stays MOSTLY healthy. But I'm an optimist, I know no other way...
 
Man if that Rookie RB turns out to be as good as he looks this offense is going to be ridiculous.

It just makes me wonder how the hell he wasn't drafted earlier.

Daniels with a RB who can routinely make plays, AND Deebo too, shit! AND they still have Ekeler.
I hope you're right...every time I look at the schedule, I cringe...
Still wondering which QB we're gonna see here in ATL...sports talk radioland wants Kirk gone more than you can even imagine! :ROFLMAO:
 
I hope you're right...every time I look at the schedule, I cringe...

It's definitely worse than last year, but its as rough, if not worse, for all our division mates as well (and for the NFC North, who we're likely competing with). If anything, it makes it look like Tampa Bay is a smart pick for a lock playoff team in the NFC.

Seems likely the win totals for Commanders, Eagles, Lions, and Vikings all come down, but are still the teams that take the playoff spots.

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I've seen a bunch of these arguments--typically from barely literate Eagles fans who spam every Commanders post with "55-23." Here are my counterpoints:
1. Sophmore slump for Jayden as teams get tape on him: What different tape do they have now that they didn't have in the playoffs, when Daniels posted an 81 QBR, best in the playoffs?
2. Aging roster including guys like Wagner and Ertz slowing down. Entirely possible, but they have young backups in Magee and Sinnot
3. Most 2024 wins were in one possession games including many lucky breaks (e.g. the Hail Mary against Chicago and lucky fumble recovery and doink in the Wild Card). We also lost to the Steelers on one possession, due to the single worst spot in NFL history, lost in Daniels first game--came back to eliminate them in the playoffs, had a late lead against Philly in Philly, one score loss to Baltimore, lost to Dallas on a botched XP; team has vastly improved--especially along the OL.
4. Philly dominated us in games their starting QB played, and the rest of our division appears to be improved. So are we--Dallas and New York did not improve more than we did; safe to say Philly regressed
5. Strength of schedule in 2024 was very easy, in 2025 it is very hard. So is everyone else in the division; Philly's is harder--they had the biggest delta in schedule difficulty over last year and this one.
6. Our run defense was abysmal and there is no reason to think it improved, Kinlaw in particular is known to be weak in that area, and Allen is gone. We also signed a bunch of run stoppers
7. There is a history of teams that improve by eight wins in a season regressing to the mean the following season. How many of them had a QB of Daniles' caliber?
 
I really don't know what to make of the position we are in at quarterback. This team since I started watching it when I was 8 years old in 1972 has never had a young passer with this kind of entree into the league.

Yes, CJ Stroud struggled a bit early in the year but still got his team to the postseason in Year 2.

We know what Dan Marino did following up on his rookie season in 1983.

And closer to today we can see what Patrick Mahomes has achieved after finishing in much the same position as Jayden Daniels in 2018, losing the AFC title game as a first year starter to a veteran team with a number of Super Bowl holdovers on it.

Instead of curl up or come back to earth after that, Mahomes went further down the road towards pure excellence.

So for every analyst that says you just can't come into the NFL and be excellent, there are examples where that exact circumstance obtained and we got used to a Mahomes or Manning or Marino just dominating from year to year.

To me the biggest cause for optimism that Daniels is among this group of special players is that his supporting cast in 2024 was significantly weaker in a number of other areas to other teams he was able to find a way to beat.

As far as the other teams in the division and conference, we won't know anything until the season winds down and we see what the injury list looks like for all the teams.

Injuries like San Francisco had last year took them from division winners to also rans and getting a high draft pick.

Meanwhile, the Eagles had their bumps and bruises during the season but towards the stretch run this was a very healthy team.
 
I believe that Jayden Daniels true strength is his hard work and dedication to his craft. Of course the intelligence factor is important as well being able to absorb all of that info and process the data quickly. From what I can read he has been working his ass off
 
I am not putting a SB appearance on the QB in their first three seasons, even if I think talent-wise the ability is there to make it a possibility. When you look at a QB like Brock Purdy, I think he played very well and deserves a lot of credit for being throw into a situation where Jimmy G's ceiling was holding them back and Trey Lance washed out before he even had a chance to fail. However, that was also a championship roster for Purdy's first two seasons. Last season, yes, the 49ers took some injury hits but even with those injuries it wasn't like the remaining roster was bad, it just wasn't enough to carry the QB and it reflected in Purdy's play. Jayden Daniels was drafted onto a roster that was more or less gobsmacked by the previous front office and coaching staff (and ownership) and had Jayden Daniels even just been a typical looking rookie, the team would have been lucky to get to .500. And all this while you could still tell JD5 was a rookie out there at moments when he sometimes played in a mechanical nature due to processing NFL speed for the first time. (Where as now going into a season with the knowledge & experience, he is going to be that half step quicker with everything).

I don't want to downplay how well this roster came togetther last season and rallied around each other, but make no mistake about it, the team needed near-elite (if not outright elite) QB play to get where they got last season.

Eagles fans have every right to gloat because hey, they won the SB, but for them to act like these were two evenly matched teams talent-wise last season is a joke. They are a good 4-5 seasons into the construction of their roster and the Commanders are now just coming out of their second offseason where the front office has had to turn so much of it over not to mention still only a second year QB. Eagles fan can come looking for smoke in another season or two when this roster has that core 15-20 players that have been drafted and designed as a machine and we will see who is gloating.

I think the roster this season is better on paper but I do also acknowledge that players like Ertz & Eckler could fall off a cliff at any time and it is going to be even a bigger deal this season that those players being devloped behind them take the next step and show that they are going to be part of the core of this team going forward and not just placeholders until the next guy(s). Match that with some good young talent that I expect to flash but not necessarily play mistake free football as rookies and it is hard to say what that will mean on the field in close games where one possession could determine the outcome.

I think with JD5 under center, unless this roster or rosters in the near future are totally ravaged by injuries we are finally going to become one of those franchises that is usually at least in the conversation going into most seasons and with a lot of hard work and some luck, hopefully they snag a trophy a handful of times over the next 10-15 seasons.
 
I think expectations are too high. Not necessarily here but among the fan base.

People tend to think what they just saw is what will happen. It always seems like everyone’s season predictions for the league mimic how the previous season ended… with a change here or there.

What happened last season was absurd. 9.5 wins seems like a solid over/under line, when you consider the overall history of the league.

And the lofty expectations on Daniels pose the same problems. Guys played one season and some talk like he’s a HOFer already (in being hyperbolic a bit there but not much…)

The worse part is if the team wins 9/10 games many will act as if some grave wrongdoing was committed. Completely ignoring it’s a franchise that was driven into the ground for 25 of the last 26 years.

I hope they win 12/13. Obviously it’s possible, they just did it.

Honestly with Daniels I’m less concerned about the record. Make the playoffs - those are the games that count and he’s up for the task.
 
I think expectations are too high. Not necessarily here but among the fan base.

People tend to think what they just saw is what will happen. It always seems like everyone’s season predictions for the league mimic how the previous season ended… with a change here or there.

What happened last season was absurd. 9.5 wins seems like a solid over/under line, when you consider the overall history of the league.

And the lofty expectations on Daniels pose the same problems. Guys played one season and some talk like he’s a HOFer already (in being hyperbolic a bit there but not much…)

The worse part is if the team wins 9/10 games many will act as if some grave wrongdoing was committed. Completely ignoring it’s a franchise that was driven into the ground for 25 of the last 26 years.

I hope they win 12/13. Obviously it’s possible, they just did it.

Honestly with Daniels I’m less concerned about the record. Make the playoffs - those are theggested because the raw talent on this roster was very much middle of the pack if that. Jayden Daniels elevated most of the offense whether it was bailing out some mediocre O-line play or getting the RB's more positive yardage due to his own running threat.

The goal in building a championship roster for that 3-4 season window, is that having a Top 5ish QB is a luxury not a necessity. Jayden Daniel's rushing ability should ultimately be seen as an additional weapon and not something he has to fall back on because the O-line can't block long enough for routes to hit their breaks.

I think as of right now (and assuming Terry is lining up on Week 1) the roster is improved over last season, and JD5 will be going into his second season, however I still wouldn't say the roster top to bottom is on the level of the perennial contenders yet. Doesn't mean they can't or won't get back to the NFCCG or even to the dance this season, but I am not yet ready to say I expect it. Now if we get to the end of October and it's another replay of 2024 where my expectations changed immensely based on what I saw? So be it!
 
How good was that first Chiefs team that won with Mahomes?

Recall that team didn’t have the top 5 defense Reid and Veatch later built up in subsequent KC runs.

No one can guarantee a championship given injuries and the bounce of ball over 17 weeks but if you have excellence at qb position it means you can win any game on schedule.

Right now we know Russell Wilson or Jameis Winston doesn’t give NY the edge to win any given contest.

Other qb situations like Cleveland and NO look like dumpster fires where fans prayers for mere competence may not be answered.

And then you have quarterbacks that have some talent and decent to very good production but seem to get hurt every year and finish up on IR or limping around from game to game late in the season.

See Dak, Tua and Kyler Murray here.
 
Wiley being cut and the team up and down on Rodriguez makes me think Merritt not only has chance to make roster but contribute in Year 1.
 

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