Trade down hypotheticals

philibusters

philibusters

The 1st Round Pick
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1. The "Divisional Tax" Move: Dallas Cowboys
  • The Trade: 7 for 12 (347), 92 (40), and 2027 3rd (~45 with discount).
  • Total Value Received: 432 pts (Net Gain: +6)
  • The Logic: This is a fair-value swap. It’s a slight win on paper, but you're helping a rival.
  • Their Target: Dallas is desperate for an edge like David Bailey or a lockdown corner like Mansoor Delane or a LB like Styles.

2. The "Refuel" Move: Miami Dolphins
  • The Trade: 7 for 11 (358), 87 (44), and 94 (38).
  • Total Value Received: 440 pts (Net Gain: +14)
  • The Logic: This is arguably the best "pure value" deal. Only dropping four spots and picking up two Top-100 "darts" is exactly how Peters likes to build.
  • Their Target: Miami likely moves up for Carnell Tate (WR) to give Tua a true X, or Mansoor Delane (CB).

3. The "Day 2 Jump": LA Rams
  • The Trade: 7 for 13 (336), 61 (84), and 2027 4th (~15 with discount).
  • Total Value Received: 435 pts (Net Gain: +9)
  • The Logic: Getting pick 61 is huge because it gives us a second-round presence, but the drop to 13 is steeper than it looks.
  • Their Target: The Rams are rumored to be eyeing Jeremiyah Love (RB) or Francis Mauigoa (OT).

4. The "Second Round Search": NY Jets
  • The Trade: 7 (426) + 187 (8) for 16 (305), 44 (121), and 140 (20).
  • Total Value Received: 446 pts (Net Gain: +12)
  • The Logic: This officially gets us back into the middle of the 2nd round. It’s a 9-spot drop, but pick 44 is a day-one starter.
  • Their Target: The Jets would likely be aggressive for Carnell Tate or the top corner on their board.

5. The "High Stakes" Move: Buffalo Bills
  • The Trade: 7 for 26 (211), 126 (25), and 2027 1st (~180 with discount).
  • Total Value Received: 416 pts (Net Loss: -10)
  • The Logic: Mathematically a loss today, but it’s a bet on the 2027 1st being high. Peters only does this if he thinks the 2026 class is flat after the top 10.
  • Their Target: Buffalo needs a game-changer like David Bailey or Rueben Bain Jr.

6. The "Tunsil Reversal": Houston Texans
  • The Trade: 7 (426) + 187 (8) for 28 (196), 38 (143), 106 (30), and 167 (13).
  • Total Value Received: 382 pts (Net Loss: -52)
  • The Logic: The "Irony Trade." Houston gives us back our own 2nd and 4th rounders from the Tunsil deal. While the "points" look bad, it gives Peters a massive amount of mid-round swings.
  • Their Target: They move up for Francis Mauigoa to be Tunsil's long-term replacement.


The Verdict: Why the Miami (Dolphins) deal is the winner
In my opinion, the Dolphins (7 for 11, 87, 94) is the best move for Washington.
Why? It’s the highest "Net Gain" (+14) while keeping us in the elite Tier 1 of the draft. Dropping to 11 almost guarantees we still land a cornerstone defender like Mansoor Delane or Rueben Bain Jr., but adding those two picks in the late 3rd round allows Peters to find a starting center (like Sam Hecht) or a safety. We fix the depth issues without losing out on a blue-chip star.
Would you guys take the volume from the Jets/Texans, or stick close to the top with Miami?

I did these off the top of my head then calculated them. I would probably redo the Texans one so instead of giving us 106 they give us 69, which would net us 39 more points in that trade and make it a lot more even. For future picks, I discounted them by 15% and just had the team pick in the same spot they did this year, which is obviously a bit risky (but the 15% discount somewhat mitigates that risk)

I think this is an example of whether its Tate, Mauigoa, Styles, or Bailey there will be teams that would like to trade up (doesn't mean they will cause these are high sticker prices).
 
There has to be someone who is worth trading up for.

If that’s the case, I’d prefer to stand pat and pick them.

If we traded back and lost a top tier player to get a second rung player + a mid round pick, I’d honestly be irritated.

But I’m probably the outlier. I don’t like trade downs.

If I had to pick one of the scenarios, I’d choose the one where we dropped down the least.

But there is a reason higher picks are worth more. You tend to get better players.

We need better players. We need that more than volume in my opinion.
 
Last edited:
Voice_of_Reason said:
There has to be someone who is worth trading up for.

If that’s the case, I’d prefer to stand pat and pick them.

If we traded back and lost a top tier player to get a second rung player + a mid round pick, I’d honestly be irritated.

But I’m probably the outlier. I don’t like trade downs.

If I had to pick one of the scenarios, I’d choose the one where we dropped down the least.

But there is a reason higher picks are worth more. You tend to get better players.

We need better players. We need that more than volume in my opinion.
Click to expand...

I totally hear you. The Quality over Quantity argument is usually king. But my willingness to move back is based on the specific flavor of this 2026 class.

To me, there are only three true Blue Chippers here: Sonny Styles, Caleb Downs, and Jeremiyah Love. They are elite prospects--think Roquan Smith, Budda Baker, and Jahmyr Gibbs--but they all play non-premium positions. You aren't passing on a Myles Garrett, J.J. Watt, or Ja'Marr Chase here; those transcendent prospects at cornerstone positions just aren't in this draft.

If you don't take one of those three, you’re looking at a dozen players arguably in the same tier. Look at this list: Lemon, Tate, Ioane, Mauigoa, Fano, Sadiq, Bailey, Bain, Reese, Delane, McCoy, and Thienmann.
That is 12 guys. When you add them to the 'Big Three' and Mendoza, you have 16 players who are all in that same high-end Core Starter bracket. I see those guys as the Jonathan Allen/Daron Payne/Montez Sweat types—solid pros who will likely make a Pro Bowl or two, but aren't necessarily Take Over the Game superstars. The ones in that tier most likely to exceed that label are ones playing less valuable positions (Mauigoa as a guard, Ioane, Fano as a center).

Because that tier is so deep, stretching all the way to Pick 16 or 17, we can drop to 11 (Miami) or even 13 (Rams) and be mathematically guaranteed to land one of them.

Here’s the kicker: Because Styles, Downs, and Love play non-premium positions, there is a very real scenario where one of them is still there at 11 anyway.

In the Miami scenario, we aren't settling for a second-rung player; we’re betting that the difference between the prospect at 7 and the prospect at 11 is marginal, while those two extra Top-100 picks are the Interest that helps us fix the depth issues Peters inherited. In a draft without a clear-cut 1 of 1 superstar at Pick 7, I’ll take the extra swings at the plate every time.
 
Last edited:
philibusters said:
Because that tier is so deep, stretching all the way to Pick 16 or 17, we can drop to 11 (Miami) or even 13 (Rams) and be mathematically guaranteed to land one of them.
Click to expand...
And this is where I disagree. I don’t think they are equal. And I don’t want whichever one is left.

I almost guarantee you the team has significant preferences within that group, and probably separates them into smaller groups based on fit and what they like.

So, I don’t want to trade back. I think there will be a preference between 2-3 guys at 7. If they honest to God don’t care, then trading back a couple picks, ok.

But I think they will care.

And also, if there is a player there at 7 somebody is willing to trade a pick to move up and get, I’d say that is a much bigger argument to stick and pick that player.

This is a philosophical difference I use with the draftniks in general. I have long preferred trading up or staying pat in the early rounds to get th player you think can help most.

I care much less after round 2. If they wanted to trade back from 71 and pick up a 4th an a 6th or something, have at it.

But at the top of the draft, I still want to stick and pick.

Even in this years draft.
 
The problem honestly is that if there is someone worth trading up for then it's a player I want. This team needs great players. We need scary players. I think trying to get a bunch of good players in a weak draft is searching for fool's gold.

Now, if there's no one we consider "great" and someone else still wants to trade up then okay, but other than QB there's no position that we couldn't benefit from an upgrade.

Ironically, I just don' think the roster is good enough to afford a trade down.
 
Best case is that the top doesn't go as everyone expects and there are 4 guys they like in a similar tier... trade back with Miami and take one of them. Picking up the two thirds is worth it, based on how deep they think the tiers go.

If they're confident that they could get starting caliber players with those picks, it's worth it IMO.
 
Miami scenerio:
1775349999350.png
 
Players not available at 11:
1

Fernando Mendoza​

Position
QB
Class
RS Jr.
School
Indiana
Age
22.5
Height
6' 5"
Weight
225
Speed
—
Mendoza doesn't have rare physical gifts, but his football IQ, football character and ball placement are top-class, making him worthy of a first-round selection as an early-impact projection and potential franchise quarterback.
Show Draft Guide Profile
SeasonSnapsSeason GradePFF WAA
PFF Wins Above Average measures a player's contribution compared to the average starter at their position using PFF grades and snap data.
2025976

91.6
8th / 316 QB		1.49#1 QB
2024754

77.4
96th / 306 QB		0.29#37 QB
2023549

67.5
187th / 307 QB		0.12#60 QB
PFF Rank
2

Arvell Reese​

Position
LB
Class
Jr.
School
Ohio State
Age
20.5
Height
6' 4"
Weight
243
Speed
—
Reese is an elite athlete for the position with exceptional strength. While still developing in coverage, he has the tools to become a versatile defensive weapon.
Show Draft Guide Profile
SeasonSnapsSeason GradePFF WAA
PFF Wins Above Average measures a player's contribution compared to the average starter at their position using PFF grades and snap data.
2025651

75.8
176th / 784 LB		0.15#38 LB
2024309

76.4
132nd / 809 LB		0.11#55 LB
2023——0#383 LB
PFF Rank
3

Jeremiyah Love​

Position
HB
Class
Jr.
School
Notre Dame
Age
20.8
Height
6' 0"
Weight
214
Speed
—
Simply put, Jeremiyah Love is what a first-round running back looks like: frame, athleticism, coordination and playmaker mentality. He brings true impact value in the running and passing games.
Show Draft Guide Profile
SeasonSnapsSeason GradePFF WAA
PFF Wins Above Average measures a player's contribution compared to the average starter at their position using PFF grades and snap data.
2025448

93.1
1st / 448 HB		0.38#2 HB
2024465

91.1
9th / 439 HB		0.45#2 HB
2023147

76.1		0.01#147 HB
PFF Rank
4

Sonny Styles​

Position
LB
Class
Sr.
School
Ohio State
Age
21.3
Height
6' 5"
Weight
243
Speed
—
Styles is an attacking linebacker with excellent anticipation who thrives when playing downhill. His movement skills are strong, though his experience in coverage is still developing.
Show Draft Guide Profile
SeasonSnapsSeason GradePFF WAA
PFF Wins Above Average measures a player's contribution compared to the average starter at their position using PFF grades and snap data.
2025663

88.6
14th / 784 LB		0.47#1 LB
2024897

71.4
264th / 809 LB		0.22#18 LB
2023543

76.1
148th / 855 LB		0.11#68 LB
PFF Rank
5

Rueben Bain Jr.​

Position
ED
Class
Jr.
School
Miami (FL)
Age
21.5
Height
6' 3"
Weight
270
Speed
—
Bain's lack of length will be a talking point, but his production and play strength outweigh those concerns. He consistently wins with power and intelligence as both a run defender and pass rusher.
Show Draft Guide Profile
SeasonSnapsSeason GradePFF WAA
PFF Wins Above Average measures a player's contribution compared to the average starter at their position using PFF grades and snap data.
2025897

92.8
3rd / 872 ED		0.57#1 ED
2024422

79.8
87th / 869 ED		0.11#52 ED
2023627

82.2
62nd / 840 ED		0.13#47 ED
PFF Rank
6

David Bailey​

Position
ED
Class
Sr.
School
Texas Tech
Age
22.6
Height
6' 3"
Weight
250
Speed
—
Bailey lacks ideal size and length but compensates with elite explosiveness and twitch. He may not be a three-down player, but his pass-rush upside is significant.
Show Draft Guide Profile
SeasonSnapsSeason GradePFF WAA
PFF Wins Above Average measures a player's contribution compared to the average starter at their position using PFF grades and snap data.
2025623

93.3
1st / 872 ED		0.45#3 ED
2024364

90.9
9th / 869 ED		0.18#20 ED
2023348

66.1
480th / 840 ED		0.01#234 ED
PFF Rank
7

Francis Mauigoa​

Position
T
Class
Jr.
School
Miami (FL)
Age
20.8
Height
6' 6"
Weight
315
Speed
—
Mauigoa is a well-built, well-rounded tackle prospect with a high floor as a projected starter. He brings power in the run game and quick feet in pass protection, though his ceiling may be limited by average length and kick-slide ability.
Show Draft Guide Profile
SeasonSnapsSeason GradePFF WAA
PFF Wins Above Average measures a player's contribution compared to the average starter at their position using PFF grades and snap data.
20251034

82.6
16th / 613 T		0.19#6 T
2024914

70.7
136th / 648 T		0.06#67 T
2023866

68.1
170th / 629 T		0.08#34 T
PFF Rank
8

Caleb Downs​

Position
S
Class
Jr.
School
Ohio State
Age
21.3
Height
6' 0"
Weight
205
Speed
—
Downs lacks elite size or athletic traits, but his football IQ is exceptional. That gives him a high floor and ceiling, with All-Pro potential in a versatile defensive role.
Show Draft Guide Profile
SeasonSnapsSeason GradePFF WAA
PFF Wins Above Average measures a player's contribution compared to the average starter at their position using PFF grades and snap data.
2025682

87.6
18th / 936 S		0.45#4 S
2024917

87.9
15th / 911 S		0.53#1 S
2023890

85.6
23rd / 855 S		0.25#10 S
PFF Rank
9

Mansoor Delane​

Position
CB
Class
Sr.
School
LSU
Age
22.3
Height
6' 0"
Weight
190
Speed
—
Delane is a long, quick outside corner with excellent instincts and ball skills. He has the tools to start in both press and off coverage and match up against top receivers.
Show Draft Guide Profile
SeasonSnapsSeason GradePFF WAA
PFF Wins Above Average measures a player's contribution compared to the average starter at their position using PFF grades and snap data.
2025623

90.5
3rd / 908 CB		0.4#6 CB
2024721

70.5
358th / 850 CB		0.01#273 CB
2023704

67.6
480th / 859 CB		-0.01#752 CB
PFF Rank
10

Carnell Tate​

Position
WR
Class
Jr.
School
Ohio State
Age
21.2
Height
6' 3"
Weight
195
Speed
—
Tate offers one of the highest floors among true juniors, thanks to strong hands and a consistently reliable track record as a blocker. His understanding of route running and releases is already NFL-caliber, and if he continues to add functional strength, he has the potential to become an impact receiver at the next level.
Show Draft Guide Profile
 
A bit OCD no? 🤣🤣🤣

Two centers back to back? Cmon now...
 
Discobob said:
Best case is that the top doesn't go as everyone expects and there are 4 guys they like in a similar tier... trade back with Miami and take one of them. Picking up the two thirds is worth it, based on how deep they think the tiers go.

If they're confident that they could get starting caliber players with those picks, it's worth it IMO.
Click to expand...
I just don’t love this logic. If there are 4 guys there, and they are all the same grade, stick and pick the one you want at the position you need help with the most. Otherwise you end up taking whoever isn’t taken. Which mean 10-12 teams already voted and said they had players rated higher.

Stick and pick.

Don’t be obsessed with trading back in the first. It rarely works the way you want it to.

The Bills should never, ever trade back ever again. They traded back with KC who picked Mahomes and who is now torturing them in the playoffs every year.

The football Gods have punished Buffalo for their stupidity. Dont be stupid.

My motto has turned to “stick and pick.”
 
Voice_of_Reason said:
I just don’t love this logic. If there are 4 guys there, and they are all the same grade, stick and pick the one you want at the position you need help with the most. Otherwise you end up taking whoever isn’t taken. Which mean 10-12 teams already voted and said they had players rated higher.

Stick and pick.

Don’t be obsessed with trading back in the first. It rarely works the way you want it to.

The Bills should never, ever trade back ever again. They traded back with KC who picked Mahomes and who is now torturing them in the playoffs every year.

The football Gods have punished Buffalo for their stupidity. Dont be stupid.

My motto has turned to “stick and pick.”
Click to expand...

I think we've traded messages a few times on this topic I just don't think we see this the same. The draft regularly reinforces the fact that we are not as good as we think we are at predicting player outcomes. As such, the benefit of more picks generally outweighs the relative difference in hit rate of the potential selections.

You either trust your front office or you don't. We've had a lot of reasons not to do that in recent history around here. I know our past trade downs weren't successful... I see that as a flaw in our talent evaluation, not a product of trading back. You can trade up, trade back, or stay put and still select bad players.

If there is a player on the board that stands above the others... go ahead and pick. I assume that in most situations, there is cluster of players that the team views similarly. If that's true, Id always advocate that they take advantage of any opportunity to move back and acquire picks.
 
Discobob said:
I think we've traded messages a few times on this topic I just don't think we see this the same. The draft regularly reinforces the fact that we are not as good as we think we are at predicting player outcomes. As such, the benefit of more picks generally outweighs the relative difference in hit rate of the potential selections.

You either trust your front office or you don't. We've had a lot of reasons not to do that in recent history around here. I know our past trade downs weren't successful... I see that as a flaw in our talent evaluation, not a product of trading back. You can trade up, trade back, or stay put and still select bad players.

If there is a player on the board that stands above the others... go ahead and pick. I assume that in most situations, there is cluster of players that the team views similarly. If that's true, Id always advocate that they take advantage of any opportunity to move back and acquire picks.
Click to expand...
I don’t think it’s just us. And I also concede I’m in the minority. Just about everybody else likes the trade down scenario. And I understand why: the draft is such a crap shoot, the more swings at it you get, the higher the chance of landing a good player.

I just take the opposite statistical view: your chances of hitting on a blue chip player decrease with every pick.

In the first round, especially high in the first round, you should be targeting coming away with a blue chip player. Not 2 or 3 whatever comes after blue chip players.

Thats why I say you stick and pick the player you think has the best chance to become a blue chip player.

I know you CAN find blue chippers elsewhere in the draft. However statistically if you look at a variety of different measures, you see the likelihood of hitting on a blue chip player is highest with the #1 pick and decreases every pick after that.

So I am philosophically opposed to trading down in the first round in general. For us or anybody. Later in the round is more palatable. Early in the round, I’m really absolutely against it in just about every circumstance other than Mike Ditka trading his entire draft for Ricky Williams. Which we then traded half of to move back up to get a Champ Baily.
 
Just wanted to show who was available. If McCoy is the real McCoy I am fine trading down to 11. And, If Lemon is not a lemon, I have no problem trading down to 12.​
 
My favorite scenario- sets us up for 2027 Super Bowl. 2027 Draft loaded:
1775361890439.png
 
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