The Sky is not Falling Thread

6. DQ needs to come out with a good start next season, and he and his FO need to show they can build a roster the way Howie and those guys have built one in Philly. They don't have to close the gap entirely (not possible in the immediate short-term), but they have to show they know how to get on a sustainable trajectory (i.e. younger, and more impact players).
This would require building the trenches on both sides of the ball into dominant units. That's the only way to sustained success year in and year out.

Alot of teams will talk about this but few actually do it. Noticed Howie Roseman commented during last year's draft something about "Lineman. It's like an addiction with me. I gotta get more linemen."

We'll find out what Peters believes in this offseason.
 
This would require building the trenches on both sides of the ball into dominant units. That's the only way to sustained success year in and year out.

Alot of teams will talk about this but few actually do it. Noticed Howie Roseman commented during last year's draft something about "Lineman. It's like an addiction with me. I gotta get more linemen."

We'll find out what Peters believes in this offseason.

It's a great point. Peters went to town on the O line this off season. But didn't do IMO nearly enough on the D line. If he wants to catch up to the Eagles at a minimum go to town on the D line this off season.
 
By I hear you is you making the point that its so obvious that those who don't agree have their head in the sand, and even though a few like yourself are saying it, you don't see why 100% of the people here don't agree with you. The way that comment came off to me is your criticisms of Kliff as a playcaller are bordeline fact based on the rationale you provided, so how can anyone disagree?

And the comment that there are worse than Kingsbury. That comment didn't come off to me that you think he's one of the top tier guys especially in the context of all your criticisms of him. It came off to me that he's among the bottom tier guys but not the bottom. If I go about how much I don't like Quan Martin's play but heck he's not the worst safety in the league -- my point at least to me would come off like he's among the bottom safeties but there are worse than him.

So you are saying I don't hear you, and don't have a read on your thoughts. OK. I trust of course you know your thoughts better than I know your thoughts. But my interpretation of your thoughts aren't in malice. If I made the same points you did in the way you made them, that's what the emotions would be for me behind those thoughts if I expressed them the same way. So I responded accordingly. You are saying I am reading you wrong, sorry about that, just trying to talk football, and on that front in short I am not down on Kliff.
Ok I apologize, there are a few on the board who seem to jump down your throat anytime any criticism of Kliff is made. You sounded like you were going down that road with your older reply, but I see you were interpreting my words a specific way. I hope you know regardless of my tone I appreciate all of your insight and research, and a difference of opinion on Kliff is just that, not a big deal.

It is hard (at least to me) to judge Kliff. I do think that even the ardent Kliff supporters have started to agree he has some weird playcalling inside the 20 (it seems it was noticed more recently but it has been a trend over the full time he has been here I think). I haven’t done the research so could be wrong but inside the 10 it seems like he has very high percentages (predictive) on down/distance plus personnel (McNichols vs CRod vs Bill in particular). Frankly all over the field I think he has some high percentages.

The point I was making is “Kliff has some obvious playcalling issues” - I can confidently say people have their heads in the sand because it is a vague point that is easily agreeable, who doesn’t have “some?” If you disagree, it’s like Kliff is perfect. The specific issues seemed to get large scale agreement recently- the goal line repeated pass attempts.

That doesn’t mean he is “bad.” I know we won’t have large scale agreement on that jump of assertion. To start with “some obvious playcalling issues” I had thought was a pretty simple starting point.

If DQ is let go after next year (way too early to assume, obviously, but if things roll that way), it will be (just like any HC) also on his coordinator selection. With DQ and the amount of delegation he likes doing, it will be more so than others. In this specific regard, DQ does seem like Ron. Behind the scenes though- I think DQ does talk to Kliff about playcalling (specifically running) more than Ron did. It even felt this last game that may have happened. There was a shift in one aspect (goalline calls). Regardless those conversations happen because Kliff said they did last year and again DQ and Kliff disagreed multiple times in weekly pressers on playcalling.

We will see how it goes. Personally, and yes it is a leap because of the injuries, I think that Kliff has a lot of tells and tendencies. I think when he breaks them, and he does for just one or max two drives a game, boom we score a TD. It could also be a timing thing (later game defensive prevent) but I don’t think so because in some of those games the defensive alignment didn’t seem grossly shifted at all; it just looked like they didn’t predict aspects of the call as they may have earlier). It has strongly seemed that way to me and I don’t say it lightly. Even last year, I had some issues with Kliff. I thought he called like three or four games really well, and other games there was too much magic by JD. That’s not a repeatable formula.

I hoped the OL help meant less magic would be needed.

One really disturbing game I don’t understand arguments over:
Atlanta.

Atlanta came into that game with a top ranked pass D and a lower ranked rushing D. We changed very little of our playcalling.

It seems a lot of the great coordinators do a better or different job of exploiting weaknesses (and personal strengths!) instead of just thinking their scheme is so good it will win. Kliff is adapting *sometimes* so that is good, but it doesn’t seem he is situationally tailoring as much as I would like to see.

Carter was out last week. Finally CRod up the gut and just brutalize the Eagles D (make them cry) would have been beautiful on that first drive inside the 5. At least second down and if CR gets to the 1, heck maybe third. Based on the year of playcalling I didn’t expect to see it. I don’t think the Eagles did either, they were right, 0 points. Later Kliff runs multiple times over and over, TD.

It just looks like we have some unfortunate tendencies that don’t get broken frequently.

I know mine is a fan opinion. My point about DQ not liking Kliff playcalling wasn’t to say it was a big deal, but only to say NFL coaches (our own!) also not thrilled. He said so, because he said we need to run even when we are only getting 1-2 ypc, and Kliff wasn’t doing that. And still doesn’t *tend to.*

I do want to make one last point.

Last year we beat “the teams we should” if we were a tier 2 team (make the playoffs consistently, sniff the SB sometimes at least). This year we didn’t. My issue isn’t Kliff being a tier 2 OC. That’s a good OC btw. My issue is, is he tier 1? Can he beat the best DCs?

My read is no. Teams are at their best in the playoffs, bring their best. Prep, execution, all. I mainly worry about that. That is the equivalent of something you said which I wholeheartedly agree with: rather be a 4 win team and know we need change than be a 9 win team and think we are ok.

If he changes, no issue. He could be great. I don’t predict him to change.

If things roll right, I feel like what I saw the last two years kind of caps us at tier 2 and only if everything rolls right. I don’t think either coordinator we had last year was that force multiplier coach that you need who makes the sum greater than the parts.

This year it is hard to judge with injuries, I think other OCs would find ways to lean more on running, maybe go 60/40 running and play action because we were so injured at WR. Other options exist too. We didn’t. It seemed strange, I think the year could have been “better” (not a good season at all mind you).
 
The problem with this narrative is the team also looks awful when Jayden plays. His 2-5 record as a starter is barely better than Mariota’s 2-6.

And it’s not like Jayden is blameless in those losses. His most memorable play this season was fumbling away the game against Chicago which was the beginning of our downward spiral, and that is not the only time he has put the ball on the turf this year. He was also at the helm for two of our ugliest losses: the embarrassing 31-0 loss to Minnesota when he was 9-20 for 78 yards and an interception, and the demoralizing 44-22 beat down by Dallas when he was 12-22 for 150 yards and lost a fumble. Looking at his stats, he has badly regressed by every metric. He has always taken way too many sacks, but now his completion percentage has dropped from 70% to 60%.

The biggest concern about Jayden is still his durability and longevity, but I think there are concerns about his play too, especially the sacks and fumbles, but also decision making and accuracy. I know there are a lot of Jayden fans who want to blame anybody but him for our woes, but we have lost as a team, and he has played his part in it.
Is there a coaching issue here? Is Jayden not as coachable as we think? Are the coaches unable to reach him? Is there a disconnect somewhere this year that didn’t exist last year?

I mean, the HC needs to see these issues if they are happening and we need to trust that. I don’t fully trust DQ on it because it took him so long to move in to fix the Whitt issues, still 2x faster than Ron but that is a low bar!
 
This would require building the trenches on both sides of the ball into dominant units. That's the only way to sustained success year in and year out.

Alot of teams will talk about this but few actually do it. Noticed Howie Roseman commented during last year's draft something about "Lineman. It's like an addiction with me. I gotta get more linemen."

We'll find out what Peters believes in this offseason.

Yep, I'm in the get-some-fat-boys camp with Smoot. I think AP did a very nice job with the OL. The DL needs serious work, but Rivera really, really left the cupboard bare in terms of starting-level talent, let alone elite talent. I'm willing to give AP more time because of the hole he started in. On yesterday's "Second Thoughts" podcast, when Keim was talking about our lack of playmakers on D, and said the line needs to get younger and better next season. He also focused on the importance of having a good DC. He pointed to Fangio and spoke about how solid the scheme is, how disciplined the players are, and how great Fangio is at using the talent at his disposal. He contrasted that with us (the point he was making was clear), and mentioned how with our secondary, for instance, you too frequently see multiple receivers wide open throughout the game against our zone. He's been harping on that since last season.

Keim also said we have one playmaker on D (Sainristil). Interestingly - but surprising to none of us - he said the main problem with him is that it's the end of his 2nd year with the regime, but the coaches still haven't figured out where/how to play him. That's a big problem. One of them.
 
Ok I apologize, there are a few on the board who seem to jump down your throat anytime any criticism of Kliff is made. You sounded like you were going down that road with your older reply, but I see you were interpreting my words a specific way. I hope you know regardless of my tone I appreciate all of your insight and research, and a difference of opinion on Kliff is just that, not a big deal.
” (not a good season at all mind you).

No apologies needed but thanks for the comments.

As far as Kliff goes, I'll give my cliff notes version because I got to run out for awhile. He had the perfect storm working against him. A camp without his top Wrs. A rookie RT who was learning the position against a murders row early on. Coleman struggled initially at LG. Allegretti was horrible at RG.

Peters gave him no depth to deal with to offset Terry and Noah out for most of the season. Then the depth gets worse losing McCaffrey and Ekeler. And they are pulling dudes off the street to play WR. Keim and Sheehan were told the Wrs off the street were struggling to run the right routes. I recall Logan saying once he can overhear on the sidelines the WR coach telling one of the players he's not running to the right depth.

You got Jayden in and out of the lineup, mostly out or coming back from an injury. And you are doing this against top defenses -- almost half of their schedule, 8 games are against top 11 defenses on points. And your game plan goes to hell quickly considering the opponent almost always scores on their first drive and you get blown out quickly in games where you got to catch up.

Yet, their offense has been OK. Not embarassing. the defense is embarassing. And even when this team is healthy, they basically have one weapon that threatens a defense.

So if Mariota and Chris Moore and Robbie Chosen don't light it up, I forgive him. And lol, they actually did better than I expected at times with that skeleton crew. At times during the season with certain lineups they had, IMO they had the worst talent in the league on the field as to their offensive playmakers.

I would like to see them run the ball more. But still they are ranked 9th in attempts. So on the aggregate they run more than the typical team. But two points on that make it more difficult. 1. Falling far behind in the game. 2. Especially early in the season when they had no legit Wrs, teams would stack the box to stop the run.

So yeah overall I have no angst about Kliff. I judge him more for season 1 when things were normal than I do this season when things were grossly abnormal. For the same reason, I got zero angst about Jayden. I've seen Jayden when things are normal. He was elite. And was so with an OK at best O line and an OK WR corp so Jayden didn't need a ton going his way but needed at least something that's OK. This season at least early on he had a rough O line and often with no weapons and or had time to get into a groove because he was coming off injuries most of the time.

I am really giving everyone a pass to some extent sans Whitt. But they won't get one from me next year if this happens again. I got people who work for me and if they are great employees generally -- I am not judging them on the bad month when they got Covid and dealt with a car accident.

If I had to put a number going forward to me faith in the key players here, from 1-10

A. Jayden 10. As long as he stays healthy
B. Quinn 6
C. Peters 7
D. Kliff 7.5
 
As far as results versus process. That's how I do it. Process to me is variable and never smooth. Context matters. No one does anything in a straight curve perfectly right so picking the highs and lows along the ride doesn't move my opinion. It's the whole ride to me. Quinn not endorsing every game plan when it doesn't work and saying yeah we should have run more or whatever to me is run of the mill. It's common. If he was doing it every game, that would get my attention. If insiders like Keim were saying there is tension behind the scenes ala what happened with Bieniemy that would get my attention, too. But none of that yet is going on. So to me its a nothing burger.

Also once anyone develops a macro take, then the ride whatever it is can be seen more positive or negative depending on your initial perspective. For example, I didn't give Whitt the benefit of the doubt once I decided I didn't dig his playcalling. But if I did like his playcalling I would overlook a bad day.

While I am a macro versus micro guy when it comes to success. To play along with the micro, you criticize him for example for opening drive points. I come back with them being third in red zone offense which is insanely good consideing its a metric that plenty value and he did it with mostly backups. Is the metric you highlight as a critque more important or less important than the one I use, nope. You can use yours to prop your argument. I can use mine to prop mine. You say you put a "fair amount of effort to characterize your poisition. So do I.

And I put a lot of thought into my positions. I subscribe to everything, I listen to everything I can. I'll rewatch many games with all 22, and post clips on different threads. I go to training camp some almost every year. This doesn't mean I am right about everything of course. But I put plenty of thought into every position I have. I don't have my head in the sand about anything. I don't think anyone here does. We are all spending lol sometimes hours discussing football, we love this stuff. We don't always agree but I don't see much head in the sand stuff going on.

And I am far from just automatically in the tank for anyone. I was ripping joe Whitt before it became cool. I was ripping some this summer as to camp and the vibes I felt about this team coming into the season. I was a loud critic back in the day for Scott Turner and a slew of the D coordinators, and Ron. On and on.




It actually IMO is just a "fans opinion". Just is as my take is just a fan's opinion. The comment everyone who follows football a lot knows that the first 15 plays are often scripts -- and then I guess Kliff doesn't script them.

I can respond with strong statements as to the micro stuff like you do here with stuff like hey man, every Friday they practice red zone offense, often exclusively. I actually watched two of those red zone practices at their facility. It's a big deal. It's well rehearsed. Any fan who follows football "a lot"would know that red zone offense is a very important metric. lol, scoring 7 versus 3, can matter as to victories.

But it doesn't matter you have your strong opinion. I have mine. My issue isn't that you disagree. It's boring if we all agreed. My issue is the lines about how can you not see things the way you do? My point is its pretty easy on this point to not see it the way you do. Doesn't mean I am right or you are wrong. It's just that you have a certain fan's opinion, I got mine. Ironically just now as I was walking my dog I listened to Bram's podcast where he was trashing the defense some and then he goes the dude who earned his money this year is Kliff.

I am not on an island on the Kliff point, there are other fans, people who cover the team who agree with me. And there are definitely some who agree with you. It's not a binary call. And don't get me wrong, I don't love everything this year about Kliff. But I simply like more of it than dislike. And overall considering context I think the offense was fine.

I’m one of the negative Kliff-divers on this board (coining your own nickname is cool, right guys? Right?) and even so, I think this is a very fair post combating the criticism and putting the whole conversation back in perspective.

My opinion doesn’t change, I trust my eyes and gut as to what I don’t like, but it’s good to keep context. It’s good to absorb other takes and zoom out, remember that while we’re informed, none of us know shit really in the grand scheme. The opinions may be strongly held, and they may be well-thought out and educated, and we may all individually be ‘right’ a lot after decades of watching this sport…but at the end of the day it’s “fan takes” all the way down. It’s good to chill and not be taken aback that another fan might not agree even with a technically well-argued position.
 
Interesting to see how half hearted the Eagles players defend Steen, and the sea of burgundy around him. Compare this to Demetrius Underwood dragging Jeff George across the turf 20+ years ago...
 
At the end of the day the NFL is a results oriented business, so if one GM uses draft day trades to better his roster and another goes out and signs players he drafted when with another team it really doesn’t matter as long as they win.

When you hit the skids at 4-12 or 4-13 it becomes the time to retest assumptions and strategy at the roster level.

As the old saying goes I can’t define pornography but I know it when I see it.
 
The 49ers vs Bears game is a good argument for why a healthy Commanders team had a chance to be in the mix again this season, even with the mediocre defense. I think it is a good snapshot of what the NFL wants to be in this era and going forward. Heavy emphasis on scoring with the occasional turnover generated to create some excitement on the other side of the ball.

The fact that the 49ers are playing for the #1 seed next week with a defense that can't stop a thing should tell us that last year was not a fluke in the season of the make up of the team not holding them back from competing. Of course strength of schedule and some other factors didn't hurt the cause either.
 
I saw Giants fans chest thumping on X/Twitter about how "this is not a 2-win roster! If Nabers, and Skattebo, and Dart..." I just scoff and know the Giants still suck, and Dart is a wildly mediocre.

I couldn't help but thing "If Daniels, and McLaurin, and Brown (ok, stop laughing, even just for half the season...), and Ekler, and Amos, and Armstong, and Cosmi, and McCaffery..." The list goes on and on. Like many have said we have several holes to fill--Martin sucks hot ass, but Sanristil is a victim of bad coaching and scheme, and lack of pass rush due to injuries and coaching; same with Luvu. But with average health, this is still an 9-12 win roster this year. I still think we beat the Bears, Cowboys 2x, Denver, Philly, Atlanta, and Miami--that's 7 wins. I'd even venture to add KC there too.
 
I believe that Sanristil would be uber valuable if we could play with 12 on defense. He is good at many things but not particularly good at any one thing.
 
I think Sanristil would benefit greatly from someone like Al Harris
 
I believe that Sanristil would be uber valuable if we could play with 12 on defense. He is good at many things but not particularly good at any one thing.

We need to submit this to the rules committee this offseason, they want parity in this league after all. The Washington Commanders Exclusive 12 Man Exception Rule. Pass it and watch us have a top-16 defense, NFL, I dare you
 
We need to submit this to the rules committee this offseason, they want parity in this league after all. The Washington Commanders Exclusive 12 Man Exception Rule. Pass it and watch us have a top-16 defense, NFL, I dare you
Love how we get 12 and only then have a top-16 defense, that's classic. Well played.
 

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