The Front Office: Adam Peters and Roster Construction

[HTTR]

Something to remember about how the NFL works

This is very interesting, because I don’t think anyone is calling for the head of the Pats GM over such a less than stellar 2024 draft. Just goes to show the biggest difference between us and them (or the bears) since that draft is how little we had to work with going in. Every team is gonna have poor drafts sometimes, but we had several hideous ones in a row prior to AP taking over. The other difference is free agency where both those teams have done quite well while our team has Scrooge McDucked its way to a mediocre performance. And that is 100% on AP. At least I hope so, because the alternative is we are stuck with cheap owners which would be much worse.

 

[Primus Porcus]

This is very interesting, because I don’t think anyone is calling for the head of the Pats GM over such a less than stellar 2024 draft. Just goes to show the biggest difference between us and them (or the bears) since that draft is how little we had to work with going in. Every team is gonna have poor drafts sometimes, but we had several hideous ones in a row prior to AP taking over. The other difference is free agency where both those teams have done quite well while our team has Scrooge McDucked its way to a mediocre performance. And that is 100% on AP. At least I hope so, because the alternative is we are stuck with cheap owners which would be much worse.

I tend to come across like a blind supporter of Peter’s sometimes, and I hope the people that believe that understand that data points like this are what give me pause in being overly critical.

To expect perfection is unrealistic, and beyond that, to expect elite from anyone beginning day 1 is also unrealistic. 31 teams try and fail every year. Some fail closer to the goal than others, but sustained winning takes time and planning. It also takes the ability to be wrong, understand you were wrong, and change direction. Nobody is drafting 7 all pro players in a draft… predicting a player coming out of college is so damn hard. The best ones realize it sooner, and are smart enough to prioritize winning over being right.

 

[HTTR]

I tend to come across like a blind supporter of Peter’s sometimes, and I hope the people that believe that understand that data points like this are what give me pause in being overly critical.

To expect perfection is unrealistic, and beyond that, to expect elite from anyone beginning day 1 is also unrealistic. 31 teams try and fail every year. Some fail closer to the goal than others, but sustained winning takes time and planning. It also takes the ability to be wrong, understand you were wrong, and change direction. Nobody is drafting 7 all pro players in a draft… predicting a player coming out of college is so damn hard. The best ones realize it sooner, and are smart enough to prioritize winning over being right.

Couldn’t agree more. We all know that even the best GMs miss a lot more than in the draft than they hit. But free agency is an area where having a stud QB and plenty of cap space to work with should give you a big advantage in attracting the best players available and this is something we’ve failed to capitalize on imo.

 

[SkinsGuy99]

I tend to come across like a blind supporter of Peter’s sometimes, and I hope the people that believe that understand that data points like this are what give me pause in being overly critical.

To expect perfection is unrealistic, and beyond that, to expect elite from anyone beginning day 1 is also unrealistic. 31 teams try and fail every year. Some fail closer to the goal than others, but sustained winning takes time and planning. It also takes the ability to be wrong, understand you were wrong, and change direction. Nobody is drafting 7 all pro players in a draft… predicting a player coming out of college is so damn hard. The best ones realize it sooner, and are smart enough to prioritize winning over being right.

Yep.

I've pointed out in the past that even the most successful drafting teams usually only have about a 33% hit rate when it comes to finding bona fide starters or guys who play a lot.

The draft really is a crap shoot at times.

But it seems too many Washington fans think that every player the team selects has to be a guaranteed pro bowl starter, or the draft is a bust. 🤪

Look at Sonny Styles. The guy has played like 8 or 9 plays this preseason and some are already declaring him a bust. 🙄

I'll be glad when the regular season is here. At least when folks complain then, it'll be about things that mean something.

 

[Primus Porcus]

Couldn’t agree more. We all know that even the best GMs miss a lot more than in the draft than they hit. But free agency is an area where having a stud QB and plenty of cap space to work with should give you a big advantage in attracting the best players available and this is something we’ve failed to capitalize on imo.

I agree I wish we could have added more long term solutions through free agency. I’m sure there are some misses there, but I don’t think it’s some catastrophic failure either. I don’t have the time right now, but I would like to go back and look at the last two offseasons and see how many free agents were actually out there that we would really wanted to give long term deals, at the price they got.

This past off season we got a lot more information that he was more aggressive, but it was also clear that he had certain players circled, and he was ready to go hard to get those players. A couple he got, a couple he didn’t. He also didn’t panic and just sign another guy for the sake of signing.

It also appears he’s evolving…. Which is what we want. He may be growing as a GM and we may end up getting rid of him as he’s developing…

 

[Boone]

It feels like we spend an awful lot of time, energy, and effort in reassuring ourselves that this regime is going to turn things around.

There is absolutely no guarantee they will, nor is their any definitive proof they won't. It is good that we no longer have Dan Snyder as the leader of the organization, nor any of his hand-picked lackeys. But that in and of itself doesn't mean the team will be better or dramatically more successful. The truth is that there are a handful of franchises at any given time who have found (or stumbled onto) the right mix of GM, coaching staff, and players to be consistent winners and perennial playoff teams. Since there are usually only a handful of those franchises at any one time (and even their runs or dominance tend to be time-limited), we say 'look at the rest of the NFL - we are just like them'. It sounds reassuring but what we are really saying is 'we are one of many clubs who just haven't figured it out or found the right mix of key ingredients to be consistently successful'.

There is only one way to know whether we have moved closer to the magical mix that breeds success - and that is to watch and see what happens.

 

[Primus Porcus]

It feels like we spend an awful lot of time, energy, and effort in reassuring ourselves that this regime is going to turn things around.

There is absolutely no guarantee they will, nor is their any definitive proof they won't. It is good that we no longer have Dan Snyder as the leader of the organization, nor any of his hand-picked lackeys. But that in and of itself doesn't mean the team will be better or dramatically more successful. The truth is that there are a handful of franchises at any given time who have found (or stumbled onto) the right mix of GM, coaching staff, and players to be consistent winners and perennial playoff teams. Since there are usually only a handful of those franchises at any one time (and even their runs or dominance tend to be time-limited), we say 'look at the rest of the NFL - we are just like them'. It sounds reassuring but what we are really saying is 'we are one of many clubs who just haven't figured it out or found the right mix of key ingredients to be consistently successful'.

There is only one way to know whether we have moved closer to the magical mix that breeds success - and that is to watch and see what happens.

Just being a ying to the yang brother

 

[Boone]

Just being a ying to the yang brother

Not directed at you in any way. Obviously we are all here because we love talking about our team and that is true for me too. I have just come to realize that all of the gnashing of teeth on one end and determined optimism on the other is not good for much more than entertainment. There is no way of knowing or predicting what will or won't happen - whether we are on our way to something great or if it's just another failed chapter about to unfold before our disappointed eyes. We have to watch to find out.

I do think we have all made the assumption (especially after the magic of 2024) that anything that might follow Lord Farquaad's departure is going to be better and that having grown-ups in charge will mean consistent winning. It might. I hope it does. But I don't think it's as certain as we all want to believe it is. I will say this. Even losing is better without Dan Snyder at the helm.

 

[Blaze Thunderball]

I think it was apparent that the team had next to no chance of attaining success with Snyder at the helm. Replacing him changes those odds, although it still guarantees nothing.

However, bear in mind that in the past 20 or so years, nearly every NFC team has at least one superbowl appearance. I think the outliers, asides from Washington, are the Cowboys, Vikings and Lions. There still isn't a team that stands out for perennial success like we've seen in the AFC during that same time, so the odds are good.

So far, it seems like Peters has not succeeded in hitting on any players that are amongst the best at their position. Daniels has the best chance, Styles' story is yet to be written. I honestly believe that the best teams have a small handful of players that are capable of taking over a game, a good number of the rest are solid contributors whose play is elevated by the existence of those few difference makers and the rest are JAGS or one trick ponies who can fill in in a pinch because the other players on the field help cover. Feels like we're a way from that point yet, which 3 years on is not encouraging.

 

[HTTR]

It feels like we spend an awful lot of time, energy, and effort in reassuring ourselves that this regime is going to turn things around.

There is absolutely no guarantee they will, nor is their any definitive proof they won't. It is good that we no longer have Dan Snyder as the leader of the organization, nor any of his hand-picked lackeys. But that in and of itself doesn't mean the team will be better or dramatically more successful. The truth is that there are a handful of franchises at any given time who have found (or stumbled onto) the right mix of GM, coaching staff, and players to be consistent winners and perennial playoff teams. Since there are usually only a handful of those franchises at any one time (and even their runs or dominance tend to be time-limited), we say 'look at the rest of the NFL - we are just like them'. It sounds reassuring but what we are really saying is 'we are one of many clubs who just haven't figured it out or found the right mix of key ingredients to be consistently successful'.

There is only one way to know whether we have moved closer to the magical mix that breeds success - and that is to watch and see what happens.

So true. This regime may not be the right guys, and admittedly it’s starting to look more and more that way. But at least we have hope because when we eventually do find the right mix, we don’t have Snyder anymore to screw it all up. So I’m gonna be patient and let this year play out and if we have to change course afterward so be it. It’s not the end of the world.

 

[Discobob]

Just being a ying to the yang brother

I think the hyper fixation on a single team makes it easy to compare the "misses" against the hits from other teams. People then cite examples of hits at similar parts of the draft using the entire rest of the league as their sample set.

My assumption was always that it would take ~5 years of average drafting to correct the overall roster dumpster fire that existed from Snyder's reign of terror.

If you consider draft and FA success, my gut feel is that AP has been at least average. The problem is that average is actually more miss than hit. As a fan, that's frustrating... but also the nature of the beast.

 

[DieselPwr44]

Not directed at you in any way. Obviously we are all here because we love talking about our team and that is true for me too. I have just come to realize that all of the gnashing of teeth on one end and determined optimism on the other is not good for much more than entertainment. There is no way of knowing or predicting what will or won't happen - whether we are on our way to something great or if it's just another failed chapter about to unfold before our disappointed eyes. We have to watch to find out.

I do think we have all made the assumption (especially after the magic of 2024) that anything that might follow Lord Farquaad's departure is going to be better and that having grown-ups in charge will mean consistent winning. It might. I hope it does. But I don't think it's as certain as we all want to believe it is. I will say this. Even losing is better without Dan Snyder at the helm.

Dan,Vinny and Bruce did a tremendous amount of damage to this fanbase's psyche and Ron Rivera falling flat on his face with personnel only added to that. It's going to take more than one miracle run to the NFC Championship to heal it.

Peters is still trying to dig out of a massive hole roster wise but a lot of fans look at roster building as Minute Rice instead of smoking a brisket (low and slow). With the dearth of talent, any misstep is going to be amplified. Most fans are unrealistically asking for Peters to be perfect and it just doesn't work that way. Just let him work.

 

[Conn]

Dan,Vinny and Bruce did a tremendous amount of damage to this fanbase's psyche and Ron Rivera falling flat on his face with personnel only added to that. It's going to take more than one miracle run to the NFC Championship to heal it.

Peters is still trying to dig out of a massive hole roster wise but a lot of fans look at roster building as Minute Rice instead of smoking a brisket (low and slow). With the dearth of talent, any misstep is going to be amplified. Most fans are unrealistically asking for Peters to be perfect and it just doesn't work that way. Just let him work.

Nobody is asking him to be perfect…some of us would like to see him draft a pro bowler or two eventually. Or a really good starter. Or just a good consistent starter actually, would be a good start. This hyperbole in defense of a mediocre operation (thus far) is too over the top.

 

[burgold]

It feels like the roster is incomplete.

I hope they successfully Frankenstein this team between now and the 13th. I'm probably more worried about depth than starters although center and corner still remains scary.

 

[Hokieskin]

Dan,Vinny and Bruce did a tremendous amount of damage to this fanbase's psyche and Ron Rivera falling flat on his face with personnel only added to that. It's going to take more than one miracle run to the NFC Championship to heal it.

Peters is still trying to dig out of a massive hole roster wise but a lot of fans look at roster building as Minute Rice instead of smoking a brisket (low and slow). With the dearth of talent, any misstep is going to be amplified. Most fans are unrealistically asking for Peters to be perfect and it just doesn't work that way. Just let him work.

You can only scapecoat Rivera for so long. It's been three years already. NE during Belechick's last years until Vrabel were almost as bad and they made the Super Bowl last year.

 

[DieselPwr44]

You can only scapecoat Rivera for so long. It's been three years already. NE during Belechick's last years until Vrabel were almost as bad and they made the Super Bowl last year.

So you like Minute Rice.
The misses by Rivera would be core pieces right now if they hit. You just can't ignore that.

BTW, Dan Quinn was 60 minutes away from a Super Bowl just recently and we have fans that want Quinn and Peters gone before one snap in the 2026 season.
Ridiculous, IMO.

 

[Boone]

So you like Minute Rice.
The misses by Rivera would be core pieces right now if they hit. You just can't ignore that.

BTW, Dan Quinn was 60 minutes away from a Super Bowl just recently and we have fans that want Quinn and Peters gone before one snap in the 2026 season.
Ridiculous, IMO.

Your points are well taken. But many would argue it was Jayden Daniels taking the league by storm in his rookie season and a very capable Kliff Kingsbury offense that made the difference in 2024. I’d also point out that we haven’t seen the bold aggressive Dan Quinn of 2024 since then. He has looked tentative and lacking in confidence since then, oh and btw, fired both of his coordinators.

As usual, I don’t think the fans are the problem.

 

[HOF44]

My biggest fear for the year is we can’t run the ball, then opposing D’s will take away the flats and short routes and JD will either be running into traffic or throwing it away as he won’t have time to throw deeper. Hopefully more throw aways this year.

 

[DieselPwr44]

Your points are well taken. But many would argue it was Jayden Daniels taking the league by storm in his rookie season and a very capable Kliff Kingsbury offense that made the difference in 2024. I’d also point out that we haven’t seen the bold aggressive Dan Quinn of 2024 since then. He has looked tentative and lacking in confidence since then, oh and btw, fired both of his coordinators.

As usual, I don’t think the fans are the problem.

To be fair, how many games did he have #5 last year? Should he have been just as aggressive with No Terry and Mariota at QB?

 

[Boone]

Yes. Team identity is team identity. Look what not being aggressive got us.