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Always Commander Never Captain
The Free Agent Vet
Nice post, but I've got some counterpoints.
Extending Tunsil drops his cap hit down considerably. Biadasz is also in the last year of his deal, he can be extended to drop the cap hit as well. So that's a savings of $15-20m from those two. We aren't paying Allegretti $7m in 2026 to be the backup Center anymore, so cutting him saves another $3m or extending/restructuring him also saves roughly $3m. We've got other contracts that can be restructured or extended. If we want to play with Cash Over Cap like the Eagles do, then the Commanders have even more to work with (Luvu, Armstrong, etc).
We have one huge asset that most teams do not have, which is a QB rookie contract window where we can spend an absurd amount of money elsewhere on offense and load up. Having Jayden Daniels get hurt because the offensive roster sucks is how you fail to take advantage of the rookie contract window. Cause in just a few years his cap hit will be $60-70m. So the time to splurge and go all-in has to be right now. That splurge and those contracts will then be off the books or can be re-worked by the time Daniels insane QB cap hits start hitting us.
Our QB, who will throw his body on the line to make a play, can only currently rely on one WR.
- That one WR is 31 years old.
- Any WR signed in FA for less than $12m a year will likely suck and lose their starting job mid-season (would have been less than $11m, but cap is rising)
- Marquise Brown, Curtis Samuel, Dyami Brown, Tutu Atwell, Josh Palmer are recent examples of "affordable" WR additions, but the reality is they still suck and that's a net drain of around $10m a year for just $1m of production
- If you actually want WR production more equivalent to the Cap Space you are spending, then you have to increase the money to get 2nd tier guys, cause 3rd tier is just a waste of time and money since they do not produce. It's the reality of WR Free Agents
- If we don't add 2 WR Free Agents, then our WR room is looking really bleak
- 31 Year Old WR who might hit that wall and his body could start breaking down, you never know when it happens, maybe it won't until he's 32 or 33, but it could be at 31.
- Both Luke McCaffrey and Jaylin Lane only managed 2 targets a game. Jaylin Lane had a 40% success rate when targeted, his ability to catch deep passes is really raw. He doesn't know how to set up the catch point so the corner can't interfere. They can still both develop. But you can not rely on that.
How do we realistically combat this?
- You never know how the draft shakes out, so the WR they make like at #7 might not be there.
- That leaves the only option of filling in that WR room through Free Agency. As stated above, you have to spend real money on them.
- $12M is the floor for a WR.
- Good News...the hit rate on this group is above 0%! The bad news, it's still not a reliable hit rate. Of the 5 WR signed in the $11-13M range in 2025 (now the $12-14M range in 2026), the hit rate was 60%. It's 40% if we think Darius Slayton was a miss.
- Next tier up is $20m+, hit rate is more reliable here.
- $12M is the floor for a WR.
- If we do sign those 2 FA, and the WR we like is there at #7...it can still make some sense to take him. Honestly if we do sign 2 FA, I'd rather go elsewhere than WR at #7, but it still makes some sense given age of WR room, hit/bust rate for the cheaper WR FA tier (but still higher than "affordable" tier which is just a waste of money), and having somebody under contract when Jayden's Cap Hit explodes.
Eagles have a high end WR duo too. AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith. They won a Super Bowl the same season they gave Smith a $25m a year contract. They were also paying top of the market money for RB, a position most say don't spend on for roster construction purposes. There are contract windows that allow for extra spending. In 2024 when they won, Jalen Hurts and DeVonta Smith had just signed their contracts. Their cap hits were lower then than they will be in 2026. But it still kept talent around and happy while they won a Super Bowl.
