The 2026 Free Agency Thread

[method man]

I really just think you’re conflating two different groups of people with different ideas and saying that “fans” think both things, and then chuckling to yourself about it as if you’re above it all, wryly shaking your head at the dummies around you.

I’m exaggerating for humor but I don’t think it’s a really fair take.

Like you said, anyone paying attention actually knows that Snyder/Bruce got super cheap over the years and we weren’t actually FA “offseason winners” for over a decade. So there’s a group of reactionary/less-informed fans who never let go of that Snyder stereotype, sure.

That doesn’t mean it’s the same group of people upset that under new ownership, we’ve kept our cap dollars in our pockets while the roster flounders.

Most here want to build primarily through the draft long term I think (and probably would prefer to get to the point where we’re playing the comp pick game consistently like the Ravens do).

But that requires hitting on draft picks. AP didn’t do that at a high enough clip in offseason #1 when he was overloaded with draft resources. Then he drafted better in offseason #2, but made some trades and we’re shorter in draft resources in offseason #3. So some people think to make up for that, some spending is in order, or it’s going to be difficult for the staff to compete and keep their jobs.

Doesn’t mean those are the same people who used to scold about Snyder “spending”. Doesn’t mean it’s a group of people lacking context.

It’s uncharitable for you to argue that it is, imo. If you squint and look at the strained connections you’re making, you’re actually the one drawing upon the Snyder-era feelings and projecting them onto how fans feel about this current FO, as if they have to be related or as if it’s the same people voicing contradictory opinions.

To add to this, the issue with Snyder’s spending in FA throughout his tenure was the actual player selection and all the poor character/poor fit guys they picked up over the years.

There were two times they did really well in FA under Snyder - the first offseason of Gibbs 1 (Marcus Washington, Cornelis Griffin, Shawn Springs etc) & the first offseason of Rivera (Logan Thomas, Kendall Fuller, Ronald Darby, KPL, Cornelius Lucas & Wes Schweitzer)

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

Voice_of_Reason

Feel better now? All good in your mind and heart?

If so? Great! Now carry on trooper

 

[bowhunter]

It always kills me when I see fans post this. And I'm not picking on you.

But what was one of the biggest criticisms of Snyder for his entire tenure, even if it wasn't true for 15 years? He spends too much in FA and doesn't build through the draft. Absent the fact he turned into a miser when he hired Bruce in 2010 and didn't spend on anything ever for the next 12 years, fans were furious about the free agent spending sprees, which happened basically twice, in 2000 and 2006.

And that became tied to Snyder and fans hated it, and media wrote about it, and it was a story.

However, every year when FA rolls around, it's "Why didn't we sign every top prospect to a deal?"

Again, not picking on you, it happens with just about every poster or fan of the team. I just find it humorous.

I will not sleep in Mr. Voice of Reasons class
I will not sleep in Mr. Voice of Reasons class
I will not sleep in Mr. Voice of Reasons class
I will not sleep in Mr. Voice of Reasons class
I will not sleep in Mr. Voice of Reasons class
I will not sleep in Mr. Voice of Reasons class
I will not sleep in Mr. Voice of Reasons class
I will not sleep in Mr. Voice of Reasons class
I will not sleep in Mr. Voice of Reasons class
I will not sleep in Mr. Voice of Reasons class
I will not sleep in Mr. Voice of Reasons class
I will not sleep in Mr. Voice of Reasons class
Mr. Voice of Reason doesn't really read this
I will not sleep in Mr. Voice of Reasons class
I will not sleep in Mr. Voice of Reasons class
I will not sleep in Mr. Voice of Reasons class
I will not sleep in Mr. Voice of Reasons class

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

I really just think you’re conflating two different groups of people with different ideas and saying that “fans” think both things, and then chuckling to yourself about it as if you’re above it all, wryly shaking your head at the dummies around you.

I’m exaggerating for humor but I don’t think it’s a really fair take.

Like you said, anyone paying attention actually knows that Snyder/Bruce got super cheap over the years and we weren’t actually FA “offseason winners” for over a decade. So there’s a group of reactionary/less-informed fans who never let go of that Snyder stereotype, sure.

That doesn’t mean it’s the same group of people upset that under new ownership, we’ve kept our cap dollars in our pockets while the roster flounders.

Most here want to build primarily through the draft long term I think (and probably would prefer to get to the point where we’re playing the comp pick game consistently like the Ravens do).

But that requires hitting on draft picks. AP didn’t do that at a high enough clip in offseason #1 when he was overloaded with draft resources. Then he drafted better in offseason #2, but made some trades and we’re shorter in draft resources in offseason #3. So some people think to make up for that, some spending is in order, or it’s going to be difficult for the staff to compete and keep their jobs.

Doesn’t mean those are the same people who used to scold about Snyder “spending”. Doesn’t mean it’s a group of people lacking context.

It’s uncharitable for you to argue that it is, imo. If you squint and look at the strained connections you’re making, you’re actually the one drawing upon the Snyder-era feelings and projecting them onto how fans feel about this current FO, as if they have to be related or as if it’s the same people voicing contradictory opinions.

I apologize. I really wasn’t trying to offend anybody.

There clearly are a lot of folks who know what’s going on.

And I’ve said we need to spend money in FA too.

I’ll leave it there. I really shouldn’t have gone down this road.

 

[Conn]

I apologize. I really wasn’t trying to offend anybody.

There clearly are a lot of folks who know what’s going on.

And I’ve said we need to spend money in FA too.

I’ll leave it there. I really shouldn’t have gone down this road.

Oh I don’t think you were that out of line as to require all this, I was just pointing out I don’t think the same people making the mistakes you pointed to under Snyder are necessarily the ones wanting to spend now. I just didn’t think that hypocrisy was really applicable/happening. No worries

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

Oh I don’t think you were that out of line as to require all this, I was just pointing out I don’t think the same people making the mistakes you pointed to under Snyder are necessarily the ones wanting to spend now. I just didn’t think that hypocrisy was really applicable/happening. No worries

Multiple posters didn’t like it. I read it again, didn’t come off well, so I canned it.

All good.

 

[RedWolf]

Multiple posters didn’t like it. I read it again, didn’t come off well, so I canned it.

All good.

I liked it! 🥰

 

[skinsinparadise]

RedWolf, I'm using your post as a jumping off point, I don't recall if you are one of the offenders referenced below.

I want a written apology from every poster, on paper, in blue ink, who said I was crazy that this was an option for about 2 months in the middle of the season, and sited Keim and a few other beat reporters that kept saying Payne was in a contract year.

And I kept saying, he is NOT in a contract year, and I got all the "but he really is because they wouldn't keep him at his cap number" and I said, "they are going to have too many holes to fill and they don't need another one, and he's essentially the same cost next year as this year. So they might just keep him so they can focus elsewhere." No, they said, that can't happen. Well, it seems to be happening. (Whether I think this is a good idea or a bad idea is completely irrelevant to the point of this post.)

This argument was hashed out over and over.

The team is now least acknowledging that this is where things are headed. And most likely, this is where they will land up, unless Payne holds out or demands a trade. Which me might. But I don't think he's going to get the type of money elsewhere he's going to get this year from the team.

So. I win. Everybody who told me I was a dumbass moron for saying the team will consider keeping Payne and making him play it out owes me an apology, damnit.

So there.

(PS: in case you can't tell, this is some "scheduled fun" and nobody really owes me an apology, and I am wrong more than right. But I happen to be right about this, which might be luck.)

Looks like its trending your way because of a reason most of us didn't expect. That is, the defense was bad. But we didn't think it would be THAT bad. The reason why its a story is its a bit of a shock -- combination of his high pay coupled with another pedestrian season from him.

No one in their right mind would call Payne a 28 million dollar player. I doubt he'd get half of that on the market. But considering if I recall they get 17 million in cap savings to cut him as opposed to the full 28 million, it presents more of a pickle especially considering the whole defense just about needs to be rebuilt.

But we don't know for sure yet. The reason why Standig get some play for that story isn't because "duh of course they will bring Payne back at 28." It's because its a surprise hence a conversation-debate topic.

 

[skinsinparadise]

Fact. But it's kind of like Dyami Brown and OZ---we weren't winning or losing games because of Kendrick Bourne

I think we would have won more games because of Bourne. Not because of him as a player. But because of the multiplier effect of not having a competent outside WR for a good chunk of the season who can threaten a defense even a little.

Guys like Chosen and Chris Moore were atrocious. The Bears set the template of heck lets say play man against this team, stack the box and at times blitz the hell out of the QB. I recall Logan Paulsen on a podcast going about the next game after Chicago, he doesn't expect Dalkas to do the same because they are so stuck in their zone coverages. But nope, he was wrong. Dallas did exactly the same thing.

And then the big skid happened. The run game was shut down, Jayden when he played had no WRs open and was under pressure and developed some bad habits accordingly.

IMO aside from the injuries the collapse was about 2 things primarily

A. A bad defense, became comically bad when the injuries piled on

B. The lack of outside WRs basically halted the ealry season momentum of the running game, and forced the Qbs to deal with more pressure and adjust to the idea of the WRs aren't open let alone them running the wrong routes

 

[Riggo44]

I think we would have won more games because of Bourne. Not because of him as a player. But because of the multiplier effect of not having a competent outside WR for a good chunk of the season who can threaten a defense even a little.

Then we're lower in a thin draft. This season was a wash for a number of reasons--lack of receiver depth being probably 3rd; injuries and a defense so bad even Joe Barry was envious

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

Looks like its trending your way because of a reason most of us didn't expect. That is, the defense was bad. But we didn't think it would be THAT bad. The reason why its a story is its a bit of a shock -- combination of his high pay coupled with another pedestrian season from him.

No one in their right mind would call Payne a 28 million dollar player. I doubt he'd get half of that on the market. But considering if I recall they get 17 million in cap savings to cut him as opposed to the full 28 million, it presents more of a pickle especially considering the whole defense just about needs to be rebuilt.

But we don't know for sure yet. The reason why Standig get some play for that story isn't because "duh of course they will bring Payne back at 28." It's because its a surprise hence a conversation-debate topic.

When I posted it, the defense was bad. Really bad. However, what I was looking at was:

1. He’s an average to above average replacement player
2. They paid him $26m on the cap last season
3. It’s about the same for 2026, and with the increase in the cap, it’s actually a lesser percentage of the cap.
4. Would they have to pay more than the $16m in cap savings to replace him? If so, negative in cap space at the position, potentially for a player who is at the same level as Payne, maybe worse.
5. The argument he was actually in a contract year was always factually incorrect because he had another year left on his deal. Spotrac + a calendar made the “in a contract year” statement false.

So when looking at it objectively, I thought there was at least a chance, maybe a good chance, they would just let him play it out. Unless they thought they could get a player of his level for less than what the cap savings was going to be. Which I didn’t think was likely. And he was having yet another essentially average season. I think his PFF grade was in the upper 50’s and 60 is average at the midpoint of the season, maybe a little higher because he started stronger then tapered off.

When you take all of that together, while you don’t WANT to pay Payne $28m against the cap, the replacement might be net higher on a team that has a ton of needs. Which by the mid point of the season, we knew.

I took a hiatus from late October through mid-Jan, so I was posting this during some of the worst games they were playing defensively.

And personally, I don’t want them to pay Payne $28m against the cap. I just said I thought it was a very valid option that was going to be on the table. And it clearly is. Whether it ends up going that way, that’s still yet to be seen.

I think the only way it doesn’t go that way, though, is if Payne says he absolutely will not play out his contract, and therefore they are forced to try and trade him for peanuts or release him. They won’t extend him, of that I’m pretty sure.

 

[skinsinparadise]

When I posted it, the defense was bad. Really bad. However, what I was looking at was:

1. He’s an average to above average replacement player
2. They paid him $26m on the cap last season
3. It’s about the same for 2026, and with the increase in the cap, it’s actually a lesser percentage of the cap.
4. Would they have to pay more than the $16m in cap savings to replace him? If so, negative in cap space at the position, potentially for a player who is at the same level as Payne, maybe worse.
5. The argument he was actually in a contract year was always factually incorrect because he had another year left on his deal. Spotrac + a calendar made the “in a contract year” statement false.

So when looking at it objectively, I thought there was at least a chance, maybe a good chance, they would just let him play it out. Unless they thought they could get a player of his level for less than what the cap savings was going to be. Which I didn’t think was likely. And he was having yet another essentially average season. I think his PFF grade was in the upper 50’s and 60 is average at the midpoint of the season, maybe a little higher because he started stronger then tapered off.

When you take all of that together, while you don’t WANT to pay Payne $28m against the cap, the replacement might be net higher on a team that has a ton of needs. Which by the mid point of the season, we knew.

I took a hiatus from late October through mid-Jan, so I was posting this during some of the worst games they were playing defensively.

And personally, I don’t want them to pay Payne $28m against the cap. I just said I thought it was a very valid option that was going to be on the table. And it clearly is. Whether it ends up going that way, that’s still yet to be seen.

I think the only way it doesn’t go that way, though, is if Payne says he absolutely will not play out his contract, and therefore they are forced to try and trade him for peanuts or release him. They won’t extend him, of that I’m pretty sure.

He had a 30 million dead cap last year, so cutting him wasn't reasonable. This year its 11 million as to a dead cap.

No one was lost that he was under contract for longer. Just like for example Terry next year is basically likely under a one year contract considering how much things escalate from there. But like Payne, there is always a chance they'd suck it up and overpay him if context overtakes everything.

And again, lol, its not over he still might get released. But reading the tea leaves he likely stays for these reasons.

A. So many holes on the roster especially at defense do you want to create one more?

B. It was mentioned I believe by Keim but maybe I am misremembering who said it that they don't want to extend Payne's contract to lower the cap hit -- that is they don't plan to tie themselves with Payne further so that puts you in a one and done

But will see.

 

[Commander Wraith]

Reading about the DTs needing to be unselfish under Forio’s system set alarm bells ringing in my head regarding Payne, especially in a contract year. And frankly, I’m now a bit worried about Newton’s fit as well, assuming Jones’ runs a similar system (and Kinlaw, but to a lesser extent). I also find it a bit ironic that Allen went to the Vikes last year…

On the bright side, while I’m not up on available FA targets, I guessing it’s easier (and cheaper) for us to find dlineman that will hold ground vs good penetrators if need be.

 

[HTTR]

Y’all had to go and get him started again, didn’t you?


Haha just kidding VOR, I’ve actually agreed with you on this all along. It comes down to we just don’t need the cap space, so why get rid of a guy who is at least mediocre? SIP is right though… That could change. In fact, hopefully it does because we go on a massive spending spree in free agency and need to open up more space. So I’m going to hold off before joining you on the victory lap.

 

[RedWolf]

If we let him go that creates another critical need, which we already have enough critical needs

 

[Primus Porcus]

If we let him go that creates another critical need, which we already have enough critical needs

It was a need when he was here... He wasn't good enough. He had some flash plays this year in a year that is essentially a contract year. We were bad with him, we can be bad without him. The DLine of Newton / Kinlaw / Day / Wise can overcome what we're losing since his probowl appearance of ~4 sacks per year and some of the worst run defense we've seen in over a decade at times.

$28 mil, if it was the overall avg, would rank him 2nd behind only Chris Jones in annual value.

We have not seen anything to believe that he's going to get back to Pro Bowl form, as he's only done it once in his 8 year career. If he was to come to us and negotiate his dead cap number down to $0 and only cost us $17mil for each of the next 2 seasons... i'd have to seriously consider that, but when you're telling me you could cut Payne, and potentially upgrade him with the savings? Worst case, you don't 'upgrade' him and you use that money toward signing another position of need, and the D-line is a change of an net 0.

 

[skinsinparadise]

It was a need when he was here... He wasn't good enough. He had some flash plays this year in a year that is essentially a contract year. We were bad with him, we can be bad without him. The DLine of Newton / Kinlaw / Day / Wise can overcome what we're losing since his probowl appearance of ~4 sacks per year and some of the worst run defense we've seen in over a decade at times.

View attachment 14029


$28 mil, if it was the overall avg, would rank him 2nd behind only Chris Jones in annual value.

We have not seen anything to believe that he's going to get back to Pro Bowl form, as he's only done it once in his 8 year career. If he was to come to us and negotiate his dead cap number down to $0 and only cost us $17mil for each of the next 2 seasons... i'd have to seriously consider that, but when you're telling me you could cut Payne, and potentially upgrade him with the savings? Worst case, you don't 'upgrade' him and you use that money toward signing another position of need, and the D-line is a change of an net 0.

If it were me I'd cut him. Payne to his credit is durable as heck but as a player he mostly is just OK, with occasional flashes of greatness. Granted a C plus player on this defensive roster makes them one of the best players on a sorry unit -- but if it were me I'd move on.

I get the impression they would move on if they gained all the money back from the cap. The idea that they have no interest extending him even to lower the cap hit brings home they aren't in love with the player.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

He had a 30 million dead cap last year, so cutting him wasn't reasonable. This year its 11 million as to a dead cap.

No one was lost that he was under contract for longer. Just like for example Terry next year is basically likely under a one year contract considering how much things escalate from there. But like Payne, there is always a chance they'd suck it up and overpay him if context overtakes everything.

And again, lol, its not over he still might get released. But reading the tea leaves he likely stays for these reasons.

A. So many holes on the roster especially at defense do you want to create one more?

B. It was mentioned I believe by Keim but maybe I am misremembering who said it that they don't want to extend Payne's contract to lower the cap hit -- that is they don't plan to tie themselves with Payne further so that puts you in a one and done

But will see.

Yeah, I never suggested cutting him for 2025, he had to be on the team. And I haven't heard anybody directly report the team doesn't want to tie themselves to Payne long term, however nobody actually has to report that. I think the team's actions and Payne's play has indicated it.

I think there's a C. They couldn't find his replacement at the same level without spending more money. ie: new contract - Salary Cap Savings by cutting Payne > keeping Payne one more year.

Now, if they wanted to cut him and then upgrade, which would cost a lot more, then that's a different subject. I think ideally they want to get the same or better play from that position, not break the bank for a top-end DT because there are so many other holes to fill.

Given that, when you net it out, it might be cheaper to keep Payne than pay to replace him.

And FWIW, that math hasn't changed since October when I was saying it and everybody thought I was nuts.

I really wish there was somebody who would give us a 4th or 5th for Payne. If somebody would do that, you could probably get a replacement player, and even if you had to spend a little more against the cap, you pick up a draft pick. I just don't think there's a market for an expense average somewhat sulky DT.

 

[RedWolf]

Well we will see how this dilemma plays out. I trust AP.

I see everybody's point and I am not crying for him to stay nor am I crying for him to be cut. I just don't want to have to fill any more holes unless we have to, via draft or FA

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/_/year/2026/position/dl

 

[HTTR]

I think we’re kind of wasting our time talking about Payne right now. They don’t need to make this decision yet. Might as well wait until after free agency. Once they see who they get and how much money they have left, they can make a decision then. Sounds like we may be going to more of a 3–4 defense which may impact how much they think they need him or have to replace him.