The 2026 Free Agency Thread

[method man]

I feel like the Deebo trade and Lattimore trade were mitakes in hindsight. The Lattimore trade was definitely the bigger of the two mistakes as we gave up a 3rd and 4th rounder minus some change as we got back a 5th for a 6th. With Lattimore it was not just the draft capital. Lattimore's 18 million was the second biggest cap hit on the team. We could have picked up Carlton Davis, DJ Reed, or Chavarious Ward for that same amount apy (would have been a smaller cap hit in 2025) and got a better player and saved he draft capital. Its why trading for non blue chip players is so dangerous. You can end up paying just as much as in free agency and give up draft capital. Lattimore really grinds me becaues he didn't even show up for OTA's. You give up that draft capital, pay the guy top dollar, and he is too lazy to show up for work if he doesn't have to. Great locker room pickup there.

The Deebo trade doesn't seem that bad because we only gave up a 5th rounder and he was a little bit better than Lattimore. But he cost 18 million when he was like a 12 or 13 million dollar player. Now his cap this year was only 5.5 million but if he leaves via free agency we will have 12.5 deadcap it. Given that we have 25 million in capspace, we should put the entire cap hit on this year. You may ask if it makes a difference given we can rollover our extra cap space to next year. And from a cap perspective it doesn't make a difference, but by ading void years we are no longer entitled a comp pick if he signs with another team because we are releasing him rather than his contract expiring so that restructure likely cost us a 6th round comp pick or so and we are a team that needs the picks. And he simply isn't worth keeping. He is a low end #2 at this point. He is a gadget guy and basically I think a bigger receiver like Treylon Burks can probably do a similar role at like a third of the price. I am not as upset by Deebo because he looked like a competitor out there and he did things like show up for OTA's and acted like he cared, but still a bad trade.

On Lattimore, Keim noted one reason they made the trade was because they liked Lattimore better than the options in FA…great analysis AP

 

[method man]

Treylon Burks wasn't available in the summer and from what I recall wasn't healthy. I am the same person who trashed this team's WR depth coming into the season who also likes it coming into next season. the one upside of having your season go to hell is it can help build depth by osmosis and searching for new players and Burks was a beneficiary of that.

What's the hit rate of a late 5th rounder like 5%? It's not like this team is hungry for more cap room to sign this or that player. They had all the cap room in the world last off season and still 13 teams outspent them. And yeah I'd be stunned and pissed if they came out of this off season with comp picks. So that doesn't faze me at all.

And sticking to Burks. I'd love to think you are right, Burks can do the same thing, bring me that 75 catch, 750 season from him. I think we are jumping the gun on that. Lets see if the dude can stay healthy. Peters already banked on an often injured Noah Brown to man one spot. Burks with the other? lol, I'd trash Peters even more on this point than I am doing now if he played it that way. I am good with Burks as a backup. But am not counting on him for a 75 catch 750 yard season considering he's never come near those numbers, yet.

It was a high 5th. It was the NO pick we got for Lattimore. Take a look at the guys that around that pick. Surprising number of guys who have gotten a healthy amount of playing time.

Gadsden was the prize

 

[skinsinparadise]

On Lattimore, Keim noted one reason they made the trade was because they liked Lattimore better than the options in FA…great analysis AP

He's talked about that multiple times.

The only caveat I have about that was I was listening to some film junkie on Sheehan's show say Lattimore was playing really well in NO including that seasons so he was surprised he played so poorly in Washington -- makes me wonder if its possible that Whitt was part of the problem.

Juding by PFF, he had 5 good games, or at least decent, 3 terrible ones, and one meh. Does he go elsewhere and play better? will see.

 

[skinsinparadise]

It was a high 5th. It was the NO pick we got for Lattimore. Take a look at the guys that around that pick. Surprising number of guys who have gotten a healthy amount of playing time.

Gadsden was the prize

Doesn't matter the study, in general not a high rate of success.

TomServo
Posted on Jun 16th, 2023, 6:45 PM, , User Since 291 months ago, User Post Count: 27803

• Jun 16th, 2023, 6:45 PM
• 291 months
• 27803

A few years ago I did a 20 year look at exactly how good your chances are of being a solid starter in the NFL, based on your draft round. I just wanted to mention this as we get salty about how bad this or that guy is playing who was taken in the 3rd or 4th round. Odds are not high you will become a difference maker in the NFL... no matter where you're taken.
1st round - about 50% of players drafted in the 1st round developed into solid NFL starters.
2nd round - about 33% of players drafted in the 2nd round developed into solid NFL starter. From here, it dropped by 50% per round.
3rd round - about 16%.
4th round - about 8%.
5th round - about 4-5%.
6th round - about 2%.
7th round - about 1-2%.
Note: this wasn't based on likelihood of making an NFL roster, it was based on subjective factors, like # of seasons or games starting, statistical performance, Pro Bowls, etc. So it wasn't that only 2% of 6th rounders would be role-players, it was that 2% would become solid starters. Lots of 4th, 5th, 6th rounders develop into decent special teamers or fill-in guys. Almost none of them became every week starters, though. I think I didn't include kickers and punters in the calculation, though.
So, we just can't expect to get 4-5 starters out of every draft. And if DPJ is a solid starter (and he is), that is something you couldn't have expected from anybody else in his draft year.

 

[philibusters]

He's talked about that multiple times.

The only caveat I have about that was I was listening to some film junkie on Sheehan's show say Lattimore was playing really well in NO including that seasons so he was surprised he played so poorly in Washington -- makes me wonder if its possible that Whitt was part of the problem.

Juding by PFF, he had 5 good games, or at least decent, 3 terrible ones, and one meh. Does he go elsewhere and play better? will see.

Lattimore is a press man corner. In the right defense he could be alright though I think his prime has passed him by. What he is still good at is pressing and disrupting the route. That is useful if you can get quick pressure with four man pressure or a five man-man coverage blitz. What he is not anymore is sticky in man tight man coverage. So while he can initially disrupt the route, if the pressure doesn't get there he is toast. Especially after losing Wise and Armstrong we could not get the pressure and he was a liability in man coverage. To some extent the same is true with Sainristil. He is alright in zone with good ball skills when the ball is in the air and useful player in run fits for a corner, but if you leave him in man coverage he is not sticky. What was disappointing about Whitt was how poorly he understood his personnel. Lattimore is good at pressing, but not sticky in man and Sainristil was also not sticky. And we don't have the pass rush to get there is four. He needed to do what Quinn is doing now, but didn't understand that.

 

[skinsinparadise]

Lattimore is a press man corner. In the right defense he could be alright though I think his prime has passed him by. What he is still good at is pressing and disrupting the route. That is useful if you can get quick pressure with four man pressure or a five man-man coverage blitz. What he is not anymore is sticky in man tight man coverage. So while he can initially disrupt the route, if the pressure doesn't get there he is toast. Especially after losing Wise and Armstrong we could not get the pressure and he was a liability in man coverage. To some extent the same is true with Sainristil. He is alright in zone with good ball skills when the ball is in the air and useful player in run fits for a corner, but if you leave him in man coverage he is not sticky. What was disappointing about Whitt was how poorly he understood his personnel. Lattimore is good at pressing, but not sticky in man and Sainristil was also not sticky. And we don't have the pass rush to get there is four. He needed to do what Quinn is doing now, but didn't understand that.

That;s a good point. As I mentioned before Champ Bailey did a podcast about this team and thought the main problem with this team's secondary was the D line, fix the D line, and you'd see a different secondary.

That's not me defending Lattimore. I think he played poorly here. But lol it would be just our luck to see him go elsewhere and regain his form.

 

[SkinsLife]

Jayden and Tunsil.

Jayden is not yet elite. Not sure Tunsil is either but definitely very good

 

[skinsfan4128]

Jayden is not yet elite. Not sure Tunsil is either but definitely very good

Tunsil is a top 5 tackle in this league. Find it hard to ascertain that he's "not elite but very good ".

JD5 has shown elite skills. Yeah, he hasn't shown that this year, but the injury bug took away from his development. And just for the record, it has a lot to do with the lack of live bullets in preseason and having the sufficient weapons offensively around him. That definitely plays a part in this season's failure.

But neither of your statements are true.

Merry Xmas though.

HTTR!

 

[SkinsLife]

Tunsil is a top 5 tackle in this league. Find it hard to ascertain that he's "not elite but very good ".

JD5 has shown elite skills. Yeah, he hasn't shown that this year, but the injury bug took away from his development. And just for the record, it has a lot to do with the lack of live bullets in preseason and having the sufficient weapons offensively around him. That definitely plays a part in this season's failure.

But neither of your statements are true.

Merry Xmas though.

HTTR!

well if you say so.. it must be true ..lol
To be elite you have to show consistent greatness... not one year against one of the weakest schedules in the NFL... to only follow up with a bad year and not being able to stay on the field. Just because he showed "elite skills" here and there, doesn't mean he is an elite player.... yet.
Tunsil is a very good pass blocker... but not much a run blocker. To be elite, you have to be great at both. Trent Williams in his prime comes to mind.

its not rocket science bud... merry xmas.

 

[Conn]

It’s arbitrary, tough to know where to draw the line appropriately with these labels.

Trent Williams is beyond elite, he’s a HOF LT. He’s not the standard for anything. If you need to be like him to be elite, then very few OT’s have been elite in the last decade outside of, like, Jason Peters’ veteran years.

So it depends where you draw the line.

 

[Gooseneck]

Who would we want instead of Tunsil?

 

[skinsfan4128]

well if you say so.. it must be true ..lol
To be elite you have to show consistent greatness... not one year against one of the weakest schedules in the NFL... to only follow up with a bad year and not being able to stay on the field. Just because he showed "elite skills" here and there, doesn't mean he is an elite player.... yet.
Tunsil is a very good pass blocker... but not much a run blocker. To be elite, you have to be great at both. Trent Williams in his prime comes to mind.

its not rocket science bud... merry xmas.

Tonsils is, again, a top 5 LT in the league. His stats prove that beyond any doubt. Is he a Silerback? No, but honestly, who is at this point in time?

JD5 proved last year he can be elite. True, as to your point, that consistency is the key. However, this year can easily be proven as an anomaly considering the injuries he sustained and the lack of weapons (injuries or otherwise) that he had to contend with. If you want to state that he isn't elite, then you have to at least consider the issues he had in being consistent this season.

Id say that if next season he produces the same results as this season, then you'd have a point. But to dismiss 2024 for 2025 and declare him mediocre is being a little ahead of the gun, IMO.

Its all good. No worries here.

HTTR!

 

[DogofWar1]

JD5 is/can be reeeeeeaaaaallllllyyyyy good, but I would reserve "elite" for players who can elevate mediocre talent around them. Think guys like Rodgers, Brady, Manning (Peyton, not Eli), who could make B-level receivers/TEs look like Pro-Bowlers and make Pro-Bowlers into Hall of Fame level players.

I don't think JD is quite there yet. He needs help. And in fairness to him, even truly elite guys needed guys who could separate at least a bit. I'll avoid posting the WR separation graph I saw on twitter yesterday to avoid ruining Christmas, but the key thing is Jayden needs receivers who can win matchups.

Without that, he's gonna have to put on the cape, and we do not want him putting on the cape.


Tunsil is elite tho, hopefully he's got another 4-5 years in him.

 

[0rder 0f 0ut]

Manning had Harrison/Wayne and Faulk/Edge for the majority of his time in Indy.

Get Jayden legit weapons.

 

[SkinsLife]

Tonsils is, again, a top 5 LT in the league. His stats prove that beyond any doubt. Is he a Silerback? No, but honestly, who is at this point in time?

JD5 proved last year he can be elite. True, as to your point, that consistency is the key. However, this year can easily be proven as an anomaly considering the injuries he sustained and the lack of weapons (injuries or otherwise) that he had to contend with. If you want to state that he isn't elite, then you have to at least consider the issues he had in being consistent this season.

Id say that if next season he produces the same results as this season, then you'd have a point. But to dismiss 2024 for 2025 and declare him mediocre is being a little ahead of the gun, IMO.

Its all good. No worries here.

HTTR!

you're reaching a bit.. I never said JD was average... but he simply had not put enough out there to be considered elite. Other QBs have fallen off after a great rookie year ( being a fan of this team you should know who) he can just as easily go the other way next year or just not be able to stay on the field due to injuries

 

[philibusters]

After saying the trade for Deebo was a mistake, I thought Deebo had a good game today. Don't know if that changes my mind, but he impressed today.

 

[HailYeah]

After saying the trade for Deebo was a mistake, I thought Deebo had a good game today. Don't know if that changes my mind, but he impressed today.

I think he’s been fine. He was tasked with being WR1 for the majority of the season. Has played with 3 different QBs at varying times and was used on special teams. I wouldn’t really resign him unless it was cheap, but he’s done better than most give him credit on here.

 

[RWJ]

After saying the trade for Deebo was a mistake, I thought Deebo had a good game today. Don't know if that changes my mind, but he impressed today.

Age and injuries are a concern, I think. Hopefully, we put more money into younger players. Deebo will want top dollar, I think and his career is on the downturn.

 

[SkinsLife]

Debo was always supposed to be a complimentary piece. Another weapon on O.. but he is not a #1 wr. If they can keep him on a reasonable 2y deal, i would be all for it. We didnt see enough of him and Terry on the field at the same time, but that does have a potential to keep Ds guessing.

 

[clskinsfan]

On Lattimore, Keim noted one reason they made the trade was because they liked Lattimore better than the options in FA…great analysis AP

I mean thats why they always make the trade. Doesnt excuse the fact that they were wrong though. A FA miss doesnt cost you draft picks...