The 2026 Draft Thread - 1st Round - 7th overall

method man said:
If NFL GMs shared your philosophy, we would never see them trade back in the draft. The take lacks nuance. Let's say they don't particularly like Tate but they like both Lemon and Cooper and have them very close to one another on their board. If one guy gets taken, they can go draft the other so trading back carries less risk than you're suggesting.

Your argument revolves around "what ifs" and the idea that teams should play it safe given all this perceived uncertainty. But I'd want my GM to be aggressive and decisive, not paralyzed by it. Study the landscape, get reads from the Schefters and Rappaports of the world, have scouts and coaches talk to their counterparts at other teams, and then make the best decision possible to optimize value on draft day. Yes, that intelligence is imperfect because teams have every incentive to deceive each other but the answer to imperfect information is better decision-making, not defaulting to the safe pick every time.
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Agree.

As far as nuance on this. Maybe this is a way some can relate to the point, let go to the 2022 draft when they were scoping a WR.

In that one, you had Drake London, Olave, J. Williams, Garrett Wilson arguably in a tier together, then a drop off.

The problem with trading down in that draft considering how Rivera was so need driven in the draft and focused on WR -- and he was picking right at the end range of that tier 1 group where his pick was and he elected to trade down to the tier 2 group. That's exactly how not to do it IMO.

Now in 2022 if they were picking 7 and traded down to 11, they'd get one of those guys. But nope they traded right out of that tier to the next tier. 11 to 16. Yuck.

Ironically what Keim mentioned wasn't trading down in some vaccum and people are just stuck on trading down as if every trade down is the same.

He basically is saying the ideal scenario for this team is to trade down just a few spots and get a player that they graded equally. And lol I don't care if some don't believe it, I'd put money that he is not spitballing that idea on his own, I'd put money someone he trusts told him that's their mindset.

In theory, I don't love trading down. But if they are at 7 and BPA available are Tate, Downs, Delane. And they can trade down 2-3 spots and still get one of those players, I am fine with it. Context is king.
 
Primus Porcus said:
100%, again, I'm not the biggest fan of him, but 1 of 32 teams, whether I want to acknowledge it or not, it's still likely he's seen a lot more than I ever has... so I will listen to what he says a bit, grain of salt and all.




Absolutely, I don't think it's a deal breaker at all, and we're only watching clips. Interviews, as well as a lot of other interactions we're all not privy to will be a major part of evaluating him. I will not be 'upset' if we draft Styles, this is all purely objective evaluation and trying to look at everything involved to come up with who projects better in the league. As KDawg also said, there is a precedent of players training up to develop their game play.
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And if you read a lot of my posts, I've been playing both sides on pretty much all of these guys... Lol

They all have flaws. A lot of them can end up just being jags or elite. I've honestly been down and high on all of them, including Styles so I'm not really disagreeing with KDawg as I have said some of the same things previously. I'm just playing devils advocate at times.

All in all with whoever we pick, maybe with the exception of Love, I will be excited and fearful at the same time. That's just what kind of draft this is. I will say that I can't fully put my finger on it but there is something about Downs that I trust also out of everyone.
 
Dlts20 said:
And if you read a lot of my posts, I've been playing both sides on pretty much all of these guys... Lol

They all have flaws. A lot of them can end up just being jags or elite. I've honestly been down and high on all of them, including Styles so I'm not really disagreeing with KDawg as I have said some of the same things previously. I'm just playing devils advocate at times.

All in all with whoever we pick, maybe with the exception of Love, I will be excited and fearful at the same time. That's just what kind of draft this is. I will say that I can't fully put my finger on it but there is something about Downs that I trust also out of everyone.
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lol so have I!

I try to talk through things, but I do think there is a massive motion (not necessarily here) where people think if you're pointing out a positive about a player, it's an iron clad endorsement, and if you highlight a concern, it's an absolute that you're claiming the player will bust and that's simply not the case. We're all just talking things through here, and identifying all factors that may lead to success and failure.
 
Dlts20 said:
Man I can find one play like that for anyone. It wasn't even straight up. He took on the blocker first and came off high.t Syles has also become underrated around here when it comes to that.

He still has made a number of plays where he is knocking guys back. I'm just not with the cherry picking single plays when you have a million others to the contrary. We can literally do that for any great player.

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It’s wild to me that you’re arguing this. This is how he tackles. High and not through the rib cage with same shoulder/foot. It’s routine. Watch him. This was a single example of my point.

I think you’re missing my point that I think he’s a hell of a prospect and this can be fixed.
 

Will Jets get defensive at No. 2 with edge David Bailey?​


A look at what's happening around the New York Jets:

1. Forget the norms: Coach Aaron Glenn summed up his draft philosophy this way:

"If you love the player, go get the player. I truly believe in that. If you love the player, go get him, regardless of what everybody thinks, regardless of positional value."

Glenn said this approach, which he learned from mentor Sean Payton, is shared by general manager Darren Mougey.

This is particularly noteworthy for the Jets, who are sitting with the No. 2 overall pick in a draft top-heavy with players at non-premium positions -- off-ball linebacker Sonny Styles (Ohio State), running back Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame), safety Caleb Downs (Ohio State) and, to a certain extent, linebacker/edge rusher Arvell Reese (Ohio State).

Some drafts are loaded with blue-chip prospects at premium positions -- quarterback, edge rusher, etc. This isn't one of those years, which creates a fascinating decision for the Jets, who need help at a lot of positions.

...If the Jets adhere to a conventional approach, the choice likely would be David Bailey (Texas Tech), a pure edge rusher. He too would address a need. Some evaluators believe Reese has a higher ceiling than Bailey as a rusher, though he's still a work in progress because of a limited number of pass-rushing opportunities in college.

Love might be the best overall prospect, but the Jets have Breece Hall on the franchise tag. Downs might be a future All-Pro, but it has been 35 years since a safety went as high as No. 2 (Eric Turner, Cleveland Browns).

Glenn insisted positional value will have no bearing on their decision, claiming they will take the best player, period.

"That's something that me and Mouge talk about a lot, and we utilize that," Glenn said. "If we love the player, man, we want to go get him."

2. Bailey's cream of the crop: If the Jets pick Bailey with the second pick -- a possibility that has gained traction among draft experts -- they would be getting one of the best statistical pass rushers of the last decade.

Bailey recorded 154 pressures in 823 pass rushes over 48 career games (34 for Stanford, 14 for Texas Tech), which computes to an 18.7% pressure rate -- tops among FBS players since 2016. His 20.4% mark in 2025 is the third-best individual season in the last 10 years.

The Jets lean on analytics in their player evaluation process, so Bailey's impressive numbers absolutely count for something.

 
Personally I reject the idea of trade-downs when you are in the top 10 of a draft, unless some team is giving you an overwhelming offer chasing a QB. It's not going to happen at pick 7. I also reject the idea that teams evaluate several players as being equal in the the 7-12 range. There are going to be so many busts, or at least underwhelming players, from every draft. You have to work to find the needle in a haystack that has the best chance to be a really good player, and take a shot at picking him. Saying "I value Downs, Delane, McCoy, Lemon, and Tyson equally and have no preference" is lazy/inept general managing IMO.
 
SkinDeep said:
Personally I reject the idea of trade-downs when you are in the top 10 of a draft, unless some team is giving you an overwhelming offer chasing a QB. It's not going to happen at pick 7. I also reject the idea that teams evaluate several players as being equal in the the 7-12 range. There are going to be so many busts, or at least underwhelming players, from every draft. You have to work to find the needle in a haystack that has the best chance to be a really good player, and take a shot at picking him. Saying "I value Downs, Delane, McCoy, Lemon, and Tyson equally and have no preference" is lazy/inept general managing IMO.
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GMs have talked about this plenty. Yes, you can have the same grade on a group of players. It's the thesis of trading down for some. It's been discussed from many current and ex-GMs.

It's the theme for some as to whether they do it or not. If they trade down lets say 4 picks, do they have 4 players with the same grade or not? Some don't care and are willing to take a player with a lower grade and that point doesn't dictate trade downs to them -- but plenty have discussed why they traded down and given the reason of having multiple players with the same grade.

Every player is different. But to say you can't see lets say Downs with the same grade as Styles, you got me why that's impossible.

As for each player being different -- yeah. I can like Mexican food and Chinese food equally. Even though its different. I'd feel like a winner no matter which restaurant was chosen.

And I've probably trashed the idea of trading down as much if not more than anyone whether here or ES. But in this draft, I personally wouldn't give a rats behind if they took for example Delane or Downs. Different players, different flavors and both would bring different things to the table. But either player IMO would help the team.

If Love is gone in particular and at 7 its a few of the usual suspects we talk about are available and they decide to trade down and get one of those players -- doesn't feel wild or lazy to me. It's creative. But I seriously doubt a team makes a small trade like that with them.

Personally unless they are skipping Love, I don't care if they trade down 1-3 picks, that's nothing to me. My fear is they trade down farther than that, I'd hate that. But Keim's point about a few picks, I don't care unless its skipping Love or maybe Tate.
 
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method man said:
If NFL GMs shared your philosophy, we would never see them trade back in the draft. The take lacks nuance. Let's say they don't particularly like Tate but they like both Lemon and Cooper and have them very close to one another on their board. If one guy gets taken, they can go draft the other so trading back carries less risk than you're suggesting.

Your argument revolves around "what ifs" and the idea that teams should play it safe given all this perceived uncertainty. But I'd want my GM to be aggressive and decisive, not paralyzed by it. Study the landscape, get reads from the Schefters and Rappaports of the world, have scouts and coaches talk to their counterparts at other teams, and then make the best decision possible to optimize value on draft day. Yes, that intelligence is imperfect because teams have every incentive to deceive each other but the answer to imperfect information is better decision-making, not defaulting to the safe pick every time.
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Howie might be the best at maneuvering the draft. He rarely trades down in the first. He more often trades up.

I haven't looked at it recently, but my feeling is the majority, not all, but the majority, of trade downs in the first round are for Quarterbacks. And honestly, the only trade UP for a quarterback that worked that I can remember is the Chiefs trading up to get Mahomes. I can think of a bunch that have had disastrous consequences.

And maybe a lot of GMs don't follow my philosophy. I said I'm on an island. But for a trade down to work, the players you pick up have to be better than the player you didn't pick.

I am generally opposed to a trade down in the first. I'm REALLY opposed to it early in the first, say top 10. The later you get in the draft, the less I think one spot from another matters. I'm much more open to it in other rounds.

However, in the top 10, I don't want to trade down. Because history has proven your hit rate on any player is better the higher you pick. And if you are looking for blue chip players, the most likely place to find them is in the top 10 picks of the NFL draft. There are a whole host of people who have done analytics on that, and hell, it even feeds into the draft trade charts teams use.

If I have a top 10 pick, I'm using it to pick the player with the absolute best shot of being a blue-chip player. I might even consider moving UP if there is a chance to get a blue chip player.

I also have this theory: Depth is great. Blue Chip players win SBs. You have to have depth. But if you only have "good" players and no blue chip players, you're just going to be above average to good.

Get the blue chip players first. You can build depth in a variety of ways. Use your picks, especially high picks, to get pro-bowl/all-pro players.
 
Primus Porcus said:
He said Caleb Williams is 100% a bust. He said Spencer Rattler was the best QB in his class. He also ranked Xavier Leggette ahead of Malik Nabers, and had Johnny Newton as a top 10 value in the 2024 draft.
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And I presume he somehow gets paid.
 
Dlts20 said:
Cowheard said we need to go Mauigoa and move him to guard o protect Jayden
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Cowheard is a fuckwit jackass failure of a human being dumbass.

He can go to hell.

And that's about all I have to say on that topic.
 
There are very few scenarios that I’d be okay with a trade down.

If Love or Tate are there - no chance.

If they’re gone - I’d listen. But only to move down no lower than 10. And even then I’m hesitant. That’s three players off the board.

If the draft went something like:

Mendoza
Bailey
Mauigoa
Reese
Love
Tate

That leaves Styles, Downs, Delane, Bain and a few other potentials.

Good chance you’re looking at only one of that group being available as other teams can move up as well.

I don’t know. I just don’t see a trade down scenario that I like. It boxes us in way too much.

And I don’t see a realistic scenario where someone is looking to move up in the 8-10 range. Maybe for Styles?

Really the only two teams I’d listen to at all are New Orleans and KC and I’m not sure they’ll want to be real active there.
 
KDawg said:
There are very few scenarios that I’d be okay with a trade down.

If Love or Tate are there - no chance.

If they’re gone - I’d listen. But only to move down no lower than 10. And even then I’m hesitant. That’s three players off the board.

If the draft went something like:

Mendoza
Bailey
Mauigoa
Reese
Love
Tate

That leaves Styles, Downs, Delane, Bain and a few other potentials.

Good chance you’re looking at only one of that group being available as other teams can move up as well.

I don’t know. I just don’t see a trade down scenario that I like. It boxes us in way too much.

And I don’t see a realistic scenario where someone is looking to move up in the 8-10 range. Maybe for Styles?

Really the only two teams I’d listen to at all are New Orleans and KC and I’m not sure they’ll want to be real active there.
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I think you are missing to obvious trade up candidate in that scenario--Bain. Edge is a premium position and there are only three in the top tier (Reese, Bailey, and Bain). Huge dropoff. When you get huge dropoffs at positions is when teams trade up. Styles is along in a tier as an offball LB so he could be a trade up candidate too.
 
philibusters said:
I think you are missing to obvious trade up candidate in that scenario--Bain. Edge is a premium position and there are only three in the top tier (Reese, Bailey, and Bain). Huge dropoff. When you get huge dropoffs at positions is when teams trade up. Styles is along in a tier as an offball LB so he could be a trade up candidate too.
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Bain is listed there as a potential guy on the board. But Bain is a risk. And if he’s worth trading up for - why isn’t he worth taking?

Our FO is banking on some “dumb team” to take their pick.

And then that dumb team gets value and we get Jahan Dotson.

I know. Different FO. But I don’t understand why we are so allergic to taking great players when we can. 7 is already further back than I want to be. We should be 5.
 
KDawg said:
There are very few scenarios that I’d be okay with a trade down.

If Love or Tate are there - no chance.

If they’re gone - I’d listen. But only to move down no lower than 10. And even then I’m hesitant. That’s three players off the board.
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There is a good chance exactly that happens.

KDawg said:
Mendoza
Bailey
Mauigoa
Reese
Love
Tate

That leaves Styles, Downs, Delane, Bain and a few other potentials.

Good chance you’re looking at only one of that group being available as other teams can move up as well.

I don’t know. I just don’t see a trade down scenario that I like. It boxes us in way too much.

And I don’t see a realistic scenario where someone is looking to move up in the 8-10 range. Maybe for Styles?

Really the only two teams I’d listen to at all are New Orleans and KC and I’m not sure they’ll want to be real active there.
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Something like that. I think the discussion has taken on some drama just because of the words trade down.

The scenario discussed was staying in the top 10. That's not their typical trade down. But to your point, the odds are low that KC or NO woud bother trading up a pick or two. But that was the scenario that was laid out.
 
Love Bain but there are other positions that we need
 
Agree with this. Two O lineman going top 6 is unlikely but possible. If that happens, it almost guarantees Tate falls to 7. Increases the odds that Love does, if the Titans like Reese.

The Jets locking in on Bailey, if true but seems like a lot of smoke building on that isn't good if its true that the Titans would take Bailey (as some of their reporters have said) if he falls to them. Hopefully the Titans like Reese. The weird thing that can happen is Reese could fall to 7.

 
^ That scenario would more than likely lead some serious trade offers at 7
 
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