The 2026 Draft Thread - 1st Round - 7th overall

[Voice_of_Reason]

Peters knew he had to close that deal out otherwise it would have been 0/3 including the Deebo and Lattimore trades. Tunsil had the easiest bargaining position imaginable.

I don’t know how much the trade factored into it. Tunsil being a top 3, maybe the best LT in the league had more to do with it.

 

[ES1974]

Watched some Tate again. What am I missing that makes him a great pick at #7, don’t see that burst or physicality. He does catch everything mind. There is that.

Hadn’t realised he was comparatively young. Perhaps he’s got that massive growth/development potential. Do you all see instant Y1 impact ?

I mean, I don’t really know the finer details like many of you on here, but is it harsh to say he’s more likely to end up a very good WR2.

 

[Boone]

I feel like it will be either Styles, Downs, or Love at #7, because those guys are viewed as game-changers at their positions - positions that we still have significant needs in.

 

[SkinDeep]

It all boils down to a receiver can only catch a ball when it's thrown towards him. It's as simple as that. Terry finished his senior season 4th in receptions on that OSU team. Redraft that year and he's an easy first rounder. Where are Paris Campbell and Johnnie Dixon? And Tate is a much better prospect to me. Tate has Terry's ball adjustment skills - or better - plus a much better catch radius, better route running, though not his soeed. And yes there is some projection because of his youth. Yes I think Tate has instant Y1 impact.

 

[burgold]

The advantage of a slower receiver is that they probably have worked on their craft more. 4.1 guys usually aren't the best route runners because they know they can just blow by guys. 4.5 guys know they need to be precise and outsmart the pass coverage. I think that's why so many stars at receiver have not been rocket ships. But let's be honest, limitations are still limitations and it's easier to beat coverage if the cornerback and safety know they can't run with you and so better give themselves a good cushion.

That half second on the stopwatch is the reason that Tate is not a given in the top ten. It's why there's uncertainty whether he can become more than a good receiver in the NFL.

 

[skinsinparadise]

Watched some Tate again. What am I missing that makes him a great pick at #7, don’t see that burst or physicality. He does catch everything mind. There is that.

Hadn’t realised he was comparatively young. Perhaps he’s got that massive growth/development potential. Do you all see instant Y1 impact ?

I mean, I don’t really know the finer details like many of you on here, but is it harsh to say he’s more likely to end up a very good WR2.

A. Route Running -- good
B. Seperation skills -- verry good especially on the third level
C. Contested catches - very goods
D. Hands -- special. He drops basically nothing
E. Ball tracking -- special
F. Blocking -- good

IMO a rich man's Devonte Smith or comparable albiet different styles to Olave or Drake London. He's not elite because he's not a YAC guy, while he's a good contested catch guy, he's not overly physical

 

[skinsinparadise]

. I think that's why so many stars at receiver have not been rocket ships. But let's be honest, limitations are still limitations and it's easier to beat coverage if the cornerback and safety know they can't run with you and so better give themselves a good cushion.

I think a big part of is the Tyreek Hill and Desean Jackson WRs -- both burners with elite ball tracking skills and hands are unique. Alec Pierce has some of that too, hence his big contract. Terry to some extent is that speed deep threat, too but he's not elite at it. The speed helps but its far from the only thing.

Speed seems like the third component and least important component to being a deep threat. It's the ball tracking and hands. For example Jaylin Lane is fast as hell but he didn't show he can catch the deep ball in college and hasn't so far in the pros. So many example of these guys are burners so watch out for them on the deep ball and it never matarializes because speed alone isn't it. You see Xavier Worthy run under a 4.3 at the combine so heck watch him out run dudes for the deep ball, but it doesn't happen in the pros. But don't get me wrong, you also don't see slow WRs typically as deep threats.

You need to have some speed. But the 4'5 range is fine. See Devonte Adams, George Pickens, etc -- tallish WRs with good catch radiuses, great ball tracking skills, really good hands.

 

[Dlts20]

Take Mansoor and Bain off the list and I am ok with any of the others. I'd really like Love, Bailey, Styles, Tate and Downs in that order at the point.

Why not Mansoor

 

[Canuck]

It's apples to oranges. Different styles. Slot WR to Z Wr. I think the better comp to Egbuka would be Omar Cooper.

I get that, but I'm saying as a prospect.

If Tate can produce like Egbuka, I think he is the conversation at 7

 

[skinsinparadise]

I get that, but I'm saying as a prospect.

If Tate can produce like Egbuka, I think he is the conversation at 7

I think he's Egbuka quality but an entirely different style WR.

 

[skinsinparadise]

from scouts, which tends to be more accurate as to what happens on draft day.

Part 8, Edge: Deep 2026 class promises to torment quarterbacks

David Bailey, Rueben Bain will go early, but they're far from alone. NFL scouts dissect one of the deepest Edge classes in recent memory. As always, however, there are red flags to examine.

www.golongtd.com

1. DAVID BAILEY, Texas Tech (6-3 ½, 253, 4.51, 1): “As a pass rusher he’s really good, probably the best in this draft,” one scout said. “He’s fast, twitchy, can bend, can change direction, can counter. He’s got a good variety of moves. I think he can walk in Day 1 and help you in your subpackages. If you call Arvell Reese an inside linebacker I probably think Bailey is the first (edge) to go. My downside on him is, he doesn’t chase plays away at times, and plays that are coming at him he’s not real physical at the point of attack. He’ll jump around some things, but he’s quick enough to make plays.” Led the nation in sacks last year with 14 ½. “(Micah) Parsons maybe has a little more power to his game,” said a second scout. “Aidan (Hutchinson) is just bigger and longer. Bailey’s the best edge. He’s a little undersized, but after that he’s got consistent production with some big-time burst. He has explosive ability off the edge, first-step quickness and violent hands. His only issue is if he’s head-up on the tackle he doesn’t have the bulk to really try to hold his ground. Usually he can use his hands and just kind of get off people.” Finished with 163 tackles (42 for loss), 29 sacks, 10 forced fumbles and four batted passes. “(Nik) Bonitto is a good comparison,” a third scout said. “He’s a skilled rusher. He might be a top-5 pick.

2. RUEBEN BAIN, Miami (6-2, 264, no 40, 1): Third-year junior started all three years. “Good football player,” one scout said.

“He’s a power player. He runs through people. Uses his hands pretty well. Can collapse the pocket. Has short arms. Not the rangiest body type. Doesn’t have a ton of speed. He’s not your historical top-5, top-10 D-lineman.” Arms were merely 30 7/8. Hands were small, too (9 1/8). “I think he’ll be the first defensive lineman or edge guy taken since ’99 or something with under 31-inch arms,” a second scout said. “He’ll be a major outlier. He’s super physical and aggressive but Bain is a tweener. He’s got no position. He’s not tall or lanky enough to be a defensive end. He’s not really athletic or fast enough to be an outside backer. And he’s too small to be a defensive tackle. Does he have a motor? Yes. Does he have physical hands? Yes. Is he active with his hands? Yes. As a technician, he’s going to wear a lot of bad college linemen out with his hands and effort. He did that. But, wow, do I think he’s going to get blocked in the NFL? I do.” Finished with 121 tackles (33 ½ for loss), 20 ½ sacks, four forced fumbles and two batted passes. “His quickness and power are just outstanding,” said a third scout. “He’s violent in how he plays. He’s always around the quarterback. He’s going to be the exception to the rule because I don’t think he’s very fast. He’s probably smart he didn’t run because I think he’d run around 4.8. I like edge rushers that have speed but he’s an anomaly for me. There are a lot of other parts of his game that he will compensate with.” Compared by one scout to Kwity Paye. “Those short arms and that size will be a concern,” a fourth scout said. “More of an overachiever-type athlete than a natural, fluid, silky kind of dude. But you love the way he plays. He’s tough as hell. Best thing about his pass rush is he’s relentless. Gives effort against the run. Kills the tight ends. He gets smothered up a little bit by those big (tackles). They’ll get him. He’s like a Brandon Graham.” Four-star recruit from Miami, where he led Central High to four straight state titles and amassed 77 sacks. “He’s a really, really good college player,” a fifth scout said. “When I watch him against some of the better tackles he struggled a little bit. His best shot’s going to be as a 4-3 D-end. To me, if I’m going to take him top 15, I’m hoping to get somebody that’s going to come in and give me eight sacks and build up to like double digits in the next year or two. I don’t know that that’s what he is.”

 

[Always Commander Never Captain]

I get that, but I'm saying as a prospect.

If Tate can produce like Egbuka, I think he is the conversation at 7

I would hope he's a bit better. NFL sort of figured out how to guard Egbuka and his production dropped like a rock. It's not like his usage changed either, he had the same average depth of target in the 1st half of the season to the 2nd half. He just couldn't get open anymore.

Second half of the season it cratered to 32 yards per game, 0 touchdowns per game, on a 45% catch rate.

 

[Commander Wraith]

Watched some Tate again. What am I missing that makes him a great pick at #7, don’t see that burst or physicality. He does catch everything mind. There is that.

Hadn’t realised he was comparatively young. Perhaps he’s got that massive growth/development potential. Do you all see instant Y1 impact ?

I mean, I don’t really know the finer details like many of you on here, but is it harsh to say he’s more likely to end up a very good WR2.

My sense is that you’re right. What makes him a “great” pick (though good is probably more accurate for most) is:

1) team need - needing a #2, badly wanting to give Daniels more weapons, and needing more quality/insurance in case Terry is injured or for when he moves on. Tate specifically also would give us another deep threat, helping Terry/Daniels/Blough.

2) positional value - if his college play translates, that level of play would cost 20-30mil in FA

3) scarcity at the position (which is connected to #2 of course) - if you consider that Pierce and Rice were never leaving their teams, Doubs was the only player available in FA in that ballpark.

 

[skinsinparadise]

I would hope he's a bit better. NFL sort of figured out how to guard Egbuka and his production dropped like a rock. It's not like his usage changed either, he had the same average depth of target in the 1st half of the season to the 2nd half. He just couldn't get open anymore.

Second half of the season it cratered to 32 yards per game, 0 touchdowns per game, on a 45% catch rate.

Haven't followed Egbuka that closely. But his style as I've mentioned and as you know is wildly different from Tate. He's a slot YAC guy. I think the better comp to him style wise for Egbuka is Omar Cooper Jr.

 

[Anselmheifer]

Makai Lemon is far down my list at 7, but I was just watching him and thinking that he reminds me a little of Steve Smith Jr. Short and more compact, but feisty. Plays angry. Small but has really good strength and contact balance. Really good YAC guy.

 

[skinsinparadise]

The top 10 of the draft has long served as a barometer of how the league values positions -- and who it believes affects the game the most.

To no one's surprise, quarterbacks -- with the ball in their hands on every offensive play -- have gone in the top 10 more than any other position this century with 49 selections. After that, come offensive tackles (42 selections since 2000), who protect the quarterback, and edge rushers (38), who hit the quarterback. Not far behind are wide receivers (37), who catch the ball, and cornerbacks (25), who cover them.

Outside of interior offensive linemen and tight ends, no position on offense or defense has been selected in the top 10 less often than safeties, who traditionally line up farthest away from the quarterback before every snap.

Since 2000, only eight safeties have been selected in the top 10: Roy Williams (2002), Sean Taylor (2004), Michael Huff (2006), Donte Whitner (2006), LaRon Landry (2007), Eric Berry (2010), Mark Barron (2012) and, most recently, Jamal Adams (2017).

That's fewer than defensive tackles (22 selections), running backs (18), and even off-ball linebackers (14).

In fact, since the start of the common draft era in 1967, only six safeties have been taken in the top five: Berry, Taylor, Eric Turner (1991), Bennie Blades (1988), Rickey Dixon (1988) and Kenny Easley (1981).

Safety has long been one of the NFL's most devalued positions -- in the draft, in free agency and in contract extensions. But Downs' versatility and impact are beginning to challenge conventional wisdom. The question facing teams picking early in this draft is whether Downs, an undeniable talent and one of the most complete safety prospects in years, is the kind of exception who should go in the top 10.

"When you draft in the NFL, you're always looking at who scores touchdowns and who prevents touchdowns with coverage, pass rush," said Patricia, a longtime New England Patriots assistant who was also head coach of the Detroit Lions. "But then on top of that, who's the face of your franchise? Who are you bringing in that's going to represent your ownership, your organization, everything that you want to embody as a team?"

That's one of the arguments for Downs, who as Ohio State's defensive leader and captain, functioned as a force multiplier, even without monster individual numbers (just six interceptions over three seasons).

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/48370913/caleb-downs-nfl-draft-how-high-too-high-safety

 

[Anselmheifer]

I really don’t want Downs at 7. I’d rather have Bailey, Reese, Styles, Tate, or Love. Also Delane. Maybe Lemon. I’m going to have to talk myself into it if that is what happens.

 

[ES1974]

Makai Lemon is far down my list at 7, but I was just watching him and thinking that he reminds me a little of Steve Smith Jr. Short and more compact, but feisty. Plays angry. Small but has really good strength and contact balance. Really good YAC guy.

I’d be all for taking him after a slight trade back.

 

[skinsinparadise]

I really don’t want Downs at 7. I’d rather have Bailey, Reese, Styles, Tate, or Love. Also Delane. Maybe Lemon. I’m going to have to talk myself into it if that is what happens.

Yeah Downs for me is the biggest decliner from where I started. i started high on him but over time I've become less enthused.

The kicker for me is him doing nothing at his pro day as far as combine exercises, nada. And he's under 6 foot with short arms.

So we are betting on his brain being his attribute and I think he's indeed a smart player with great read and react skills. But it doesn't feel to me top 10. I wouldn't hate the pick if every prospect I preferred is off the table though.

The way I'd talk myself into it if they took him is i am a bit worried about the green dot sceanrio with this team. Listening to Quinn, feels like they are going to wing it from play to play from player to player which comes off odd to me. If you got Downs in the mix, he can do it from the safety spot and will likely know the defense like the back of his hand.

 

[skinsinparadise]