The 2026 Draft Thread - 1st Round - 7th overall

KDawg said:
I mean, his film speaks for itself as far as his athleticism. I don’t care if OL or Edges don’t run the 40 - it doesn’t matter.

And I don’t need a vert number to see Bain is explosive.

I get the criticism - short arms (although his differential of height to arms is in range with successful edges). I get questioning why he didn’t run the drills.

That criticism isn’t lost.

But the “bad” or “limited” athlete thing just screams “underwear Olympics matter too much” to me. His film speaks for itself. He isn’t injured. He did football drills.

Remeasuring arm length isn’t necessary. His arms didn’t grow 1.25” in 3 weeks.

People not wanting to take the risk on Bain based on historical precedent I get. People asking why he didn’t do drills… I get.

But bad or limited athlete… the film tells you that isn’t true.
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I usually agree but measured athleticism is one of the strongest indicators for EDGE players. WR, ironically not at all, past certain benchmarks. Zero correlation. But EDGE production strongly correlates with elite athleticism.

The lack of confidence in his measurables (it’s not just the over-hyped 40, he didn’t do jumps or cones or shuttles either, not even even on his home turf) from he and his agent are a huge red flag imo.

I’m sure he’ll be a good player. But you aren’t shooting for a good player in the top-10. Ideally there’d be a high ceiling there.

The arbitrary labels (bad athlete, limited athlete, replacement level athlete, good athlete, great athlete, etc.) don’t really help the conversation, agreed, because there’s too much gray area and it sidetracks things. He indeed has great bend and other traits that aren’t as measurable.

But the truth is that he and his agent thought it would be better for his draft stock to disallow NFL scouts from empirically comparing his athleticism to contemporary and historical competition. At a position where those numbers are more predictive than any other position. That says something to me and has to be some level of red flag for teams. Not disqualifying, but you have to consider everything with these premium picks.
 
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Conn said:
I usually agree but measured athleticism is one of the strongest indicators for EDGE players. WR, ironically not ant all, past certain benchmarks. Zero correlation. But EDGE production strongly correlates with elite athleticism.

The lack of confidence in his measurables (it’s not just the over-hyped 40, he didn’t do jumps or cones or shuttles either, not even even on his home turf) from he and his agent are a huge red flag imo.

I’m sure he’ll be a good player. But you aren’t shooting for a good player in the top-10. Ideally there’d be a high ceiling there.

The arbitrary labels (bad athlete, limited athlete, replacement level athlete, good athlete, great athlete, etc.) don’t really help the conversation, agreed, because there’s too much gray area and it sidetracks things. He indeed has great bend and other traits that aren’t as measurable.

But the truth is that he and his agent thought it would be better for his draft stock to disallow NFL scouts from empirically comparing his athleticism to contemporary and historical competition. At a position where those numbers are more predictive than any other position. That says something to me and has to be some level of red flag for teams. Not disqualifying, but you have to consider everything with these premium picks.
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I think we are in agreement here, actually, given the entire breadth of the conversation I was having.

He did himself no favors.

Saying he’s a limited or bad athlete is incorrect, regardless of not competing in the underwear Olympics.

Measurables matter, but I specified the 40. I couldn’t care any less what an edge runs the 40 in as long as we don’t need a sundial and the film checks out.

And, for what it’s worth - I wouldn’t draft him for THIS team in the top 10. It doesn’t make sense for us.
 
The two most overrated events at the Combine are the 40 and the bench press. We have seen time and time again a receiver, running back, CB run a 4.3 40, and do absolutely nothing at the next level. The bench press, in general, is such a poor overall measure of strength, it's really meaningless in evaluation.
 
So there are a variety of statistics, including some combine scores that have proven to matter in NFL History for projecting Edges. Some of this does a better job at projecting who will bust and who not to draft rather than who will become a star.

  • One of them is a combo of Vertical + Broad + Bench Press. (Orakpo and Kerrigan both passed this threshold). This historically has not indicated you will be amazing, it just means you have a high floor and will start for a long time.
  • One is 3-Cone. If your time is above 7.2-ish (caveats for size, other testing) then it really raises your bust potential. The only athletic testing number that can be taken in a vacuum. Everything else needs to be paired with others
The old FootballOutsiders saw positive correlations for these categories.
  • "Explosion Index" - Some form of weighting the 40 yard, Vert, and Broad. Although I'm not sure if it's weighting the 40 or the 10 yard split of the 40.
  • Passes Defensed per game - Pass Rushers who are aware enough of what the QB is doing in the pocket plus the quick ability to dis-engage from your blocker and jump to bat the ball down
  • SRAM (Sack Rate Modified) - Some form of weighting for Age, sacks accounting for position switches, maybe a strength-of-opponent expectation?
  • Draft Position - The higher you're drafted the more desperate the coaches are to make sure you pan out and give you opportunities to do so
This leads me to a unique prospect in this draft class, Cashius Howell. His Passes Defensed in college are absolutely absurd. I'm not saying we should draft him at #7 at all, just saying his career will be fun to follow.
 
Always Commander Never Captain said:
I've avoided talking about Downs until after his Pro Day. I guess today is the day.
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Looks like they're just getting started; measurements, bench press and vertical jump. Field drills in about an hour.

Based on what I'm seeing/hearing, this might be one of the most-attended pro days ever. Seeing many teams, and not just those at top of draft, sending what's described as 'large contingents' etc.
 
Spent some time the last couple days checking in on Titans news and conversations…

Shocker the fan base is still in love with Love. Not as overwhelmingly as with our fans, but the majority do want them to take him. There is however more and more pushback cropping up amongst the media. Even after the FA acquisitions, the feeling is they still need major help with pass rush, 0L, and WR. Some are saying that a guy like Love cannot succeed until they upgrade the line in front or that he is a luxury pick they can’t afford to make with so many holes.

Bain t-Rex arms or not seems to be creeping back into the conversation. They like him. Former college teammates Cam Ward and Justin Simmons have advocated for him publicly. Also, the Titans GM has repeatedly stated a philosophy to build the trenches first. There is a decent segment of the Fanbase that agrees with that philosophy (though they are mostly out on Bain specifically). And we all heard the comments from Adam Schefter.

The Cardinals pick at 3 is crucial. If by chance Reese or Bailey fall, the Titans will likely snap them up. Otherwise it’s probably Love although Bain, Tate, Delaney, Mauigua are all possibilities that fill needs with players at premium positions. There is surprisingly little to no talk about downs or styles, even though safety and linebacker are arguably positions of need as well. If they are going with a non-premium position, seems like it’s going to be Love.

Unfortunately I still think they are still most likely to take Love, but we shall see—it’s definitely not a lock. Here is some candy for those of you hoping they pass on him…





 
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LOL he looks so small in that interview. Baseball has a term for guys like him and it’s “Quad A”. I’m sorry but he just doesn’t have an NFL body.

Bust.
 
I agree that the Arizona pick is pivotal. I think there is a good chance somebody trades up with them for Love or Styles.
 
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Always Commander Never Captain said:
Fully agreed here. That's his superpower. He's got that prototypical bend in terms of turning tighter corners while getting low. But normally Edge's have done that through more speed making it awkward for OT's to get a clean shot at pushing them wider. He's doing that through his super thick legs and core. So the punch the OT's are landing while he's dipping low and turning isn't moving him off target. It's just a different way. The question would be if NFL OT's are simply better/stronger and can then turn him wider around the pocket.

Bain's fluidity pops despite not having any explosive movements.

P.S. Remember how hyped we all were when Brian Orakpo fell to us in the draft? Now imagine Orakpo's explosive movements had Bain's fluidity.
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It's much easier to see with Bain at his pro day running in shorts -- he has unsually thick legs-calves, strong ankles so yeah strength at his core that allows him to hold his ground and keep his balance in the wrestle with O lineman.

As for it translating to the NFL, it could work against more athletic but less strong type tackles like Josh Conerly where you can try to bull doze them. But stronger tackles should be able to handle him.
 
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