The 2026 Draft Thread - 1st Round - 7th overall

HoggLife said:
Hard to tell cause "NFL insiders" also blow a lot of smoke around this time to get players they want to drop. But I agree I know Downs would be good for our D. I dont hate him. But I think Love, Tate or Styles makes a way bigger impact. If we cant get one of those 3 then really only other 2 I would be happy with is Downs or Delane CB LSU. If anyone but one of those 5 players then ill feel like im getting flash backs to Ron Rivera drafts.
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Sometimes. But I'll say for me its intutive for Downs not being a screaming want from teams picking top 10, etc. We've had rare occasional safeties drafted top 10, but can't recall it once happening with one with ordinary measurables like it would be with Downs.

My feeling on it now would be its a boring pick but a safe one. Among the stuff I've read-listened to as to draft podcasts that some teams aren't as high on him as the draft media -- could be a big smoke screen you never know. That vibe seems to be centered on two players Downs and Bain as far as this subject goes, not really anyone else that sticks out to me. Does that truly mean that its the opposite and teams are falling all over themselves to take Bain or Downs -- maybe. But it feels intuitive to me. Will see. I am ok with Downs but he's the least interesting to me among the possibilities at 7.




Caleb Downs​

Ohio State safety Caleb Downs is my No. 1 overall prospect in the 2026 NFL Draft. That view was not shared by either team source.

The basic consensus from each is that Downs is a high-floor football player who isn’t a high-ceiling athlete. I pushed back on that a little, noting that Downs did not work out at the Combine. I even spotlighted a couple of plays from memory where Downs used his closing speed and leaping ability to make plays. The coach was not overly persuaded.

“He’s going to be a very good player right away,” but “that’s what he will be,” meaning Downs doesn’t offer a lot of upside beyond how impressive he is as a player right now. I asked him to quantify that in a draft context. It took a bit, but the March Madness on the screens where we were eating gave him a concept.

“Downs is good for the 15-foot jumper when you’re up by 2. He hits that every time,” but Downs is not the player this coach wants shooting the (metaphorical) three-pointer to tie a game. Cross-sports comparisons can be clunky, but I think I understand the point. I disagree with it, but I know what he was getting at.

Even after the light rain on the Downs parade, I still expect Downs to be taken in the top 10. That range broadened out to 15 with the coach, who admitted he wasn’t sure how his team valued the Ohio State standout.
 
skinsinparadise said:
I think the two rosters are comparable though now. Pre FA, I think the Giants had the clear better roster.

But I do think Jayden is the X factor as to why Washington is better even though Vegas sees them oddly as the same team right now if you are placing bets.
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I keep hearing how good the Giants roster is, and this is the year! But then they keep ending up in the dumpster year-in, and year out. JCM is better with the ball in his hands than Skattebo, and got better in pass protection through the year last year. I expect more out of the pass game, but until it actually happens, we'll see. I don't see a difference between White and Tracy, at all.

I'll believe the Giants when I see it. They pick top 5 every year for a reason. As for Daniels being the only real difference, Mariota beat them too.
 
Riggo44 said:
I keep hearing how good the Giants roster is, and this is the year! But then they keep ending up in the dumpster year-in, and year out. JCM is better with the ball in his hands than Skattebo, and got better in pass protection through the year last year. I expect more out of the pass game, but until it actually happens, we'll see. I don't see a difference between White and Tracy, at all.

I'll believe the Giants when I see it. They pick top 5 every year for a reason. As for Daniels being the only real difference, Mariota beat them too.
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They've had a crap head coach, like 4 bad ones in a row? And bad Qb play. That will depress any roster.

Does that change with Dart and Harbaugh, some of the national media, thinks yes. Some are skeptical -- like they are of Washington ironically also skeptical.

In a way I get Vegas seeing these two teams are similar bets.

A. With Washington was 2024 a one off fluke considering 2025 was what Washington has been for eons now. It's like having the school nerd, become the coolest kid over night and then the year after they turn back into the nerd again. And it feels like most now think the nerd is here to stay until they see evidence otherwise.

B. With the Giants, yeah in theory a better coach and maybe a good QB. finally But its still a maybe, and they are a bad team until they are good.

I am a bit surprised but perception wise about Washington seems similar, its a bad team, and they will believe they are good again when they see it. So its a reset again. I talked about this in the FA thread.

Both teams have been bad for a long time, Washington bad for longer, both have had some false hope outlier years and then it crashes.

What do I think happens? I think Washington is good again this year. The Giants I really have a hard time guessing -- to me its all about Dart, and I've seen flashes and then sometimes not so much, he has moxie I'll give him that.
 
skinsinparadise yeah, I understand where it's coming from, but from what I've seen in the media Giants handies they're giving out, it seems the narrative:
1. Completely ignores our horrific injuries we had. QB, RB, top 2 WR, top 3 DEs, top 2 CBs missed most of the year, plus starting SS, TE missed several games, line started to break down towards the end of the year. That seems to be brushed under the rug for "LOL same old Washington."
2. We improved far more than the Giants did in FA. Far more.
3. Harbaugh feels like Shanny back in 2010. He still has low-key awful ownership and a terrible GM. Improvement, yes, but really over Jim Zorn. Very low bar.
4. Our infrastructure has grown and improved exponentially since Harris took over. This also seems to get lost in the narrative. Nothing prior to July 2023 applies, we agree on that.

We'll see, that's why they play the games. But I'm just so exhausted over the Giants "potential." They have the 4th worst record in the NFL since Eli's Magical Mystery Tour for a reason: their ownership sucks. And much like us under Snyder, I'll believe it when I see it.
 
skinsinparadise said:
Did the PFF simulator, this to me is worst case scenario and big time so. For those lets trade down people, I'd entertain it if it broke down like this

View attachment 14447
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Back to draft talk, this is the worst case. I think we take Downs and bring in a receiver on a short deal: Jennings, Allen, or the like.

Whiffing on Doubs and Pierce hurts...
 
skinsinparadise said:
Dexter Lawrence is probably top 5 in the league at DT, but coming off a down year. But yeah sort of like how a NE reporter described Chaisson to a local podcast -- twitchy, active speed rusher but teams will run right at him successfully. Oweh with a bit of a mixed rep on the same issue. Giants have the same issue with Brian Burns and Abdul Carter. Their secondary like ours has been suspect even though they've thrown resources at it. Thinking about it, while I'd like them to take Caleb Downs because of what it might mean for this team at 7 -- Downs might be what they need, someone to glue together that back unit. So not sure who I want them to have?

I suspect they end up with Tate or Styles.
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My guess is that their new deity-in-charge will try to build what worked for him in Baltimore. So if he thinks he can build up a strong defense around a great safety or LB, that is what he would do.

Who knows. Seeing as those are solid picks at 5 though I would assume Downs or Styles. My guess is Styles for them. I have done so little reading though, not that it would mean much since there is usually a ton of head fakes.
 
I look at it like this. We have 6 picks before us. I'm 99 percent sure that 2 of them will be Mendoza and Bailey. Now will one of the other 4 be Love? It's actually a great thing if the Jets pick Reese or someone other than Bailey because they are the one team we know that will not draft Love since they resigned Hall.

This draft is a complete crap shoot. A million guys with similar grades or maybe a little better but at a non premium position. Should make for a fun night because you literally don't know who anyone is picking after Mendoza. I definitely won't be watching any spoilers either.
 
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Watched Steve Smith’s podcast (found it very recently and it’s awesome) and he had Thomas Davis on breaking down LBs.

Davis said something that just clicked in my head…

He said Matt Patricia changed everything for Arvelle Reese because the second he saw him he put him in the Landon Collins role with the Pats and…

That’s it. That is who Reese reminds me of. But a better pass rusher and anchor. But that kind of player.
 
Riggo44 said:
skinsinparadise yeah, I understand where it's coming from, but from what I've seen in the media Giants handies they're giving out, it seems the narrative:
1. Completely ignores our horrific injuries we had. QB, RB, top 2 WR, top 3 DEs, top 2 CBs missed most of the year, plus starting SS, TE missed several games, line started to break down towards the end of the year. That seems to be brushed under the rug for "LOL same old Washington."
2. We improved far more than the Giants did in FA. Far more.
3. Harbaugh feels like Shanny back in 2010. He still has low-key awful ownership and a terrible GM. Improvement, yes, but really over Jim Zorn. Very low bar.
4. Our infrastructure has grown and improved exponentially since Harris took over. This also seems to get lost in the narrative. Nothing prior to July 2023 applies, we agree on that.

We'll see, that's why they play the games. But I'm just so exhausted over the Giants "potential." They have the 4th worst record in the NFL since Eli's Magical Mystery Tour for a reason: their ownership sucks. And much like us under Snyder, I'll believe it when I see it.
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The Giants I think are a good lesson that ironically explains the 2024 Commanders. Do I think the Giants had the better roster that year? Yep. Was it great? Nope. But better than Washington? IMO, yes. But Jayden changes the equation. The QB is everything.

If you got a crap QB and a crap coach, it doesn't matter how dominant Dexter Lawernce and Brian Burns, etc are. When you are playing from behind it neturalizes the pass rush and you can just run at the undersized pass rushers and run out the clock.

They have somewhat the same narrative about their D line that Washington did under Rivera -- their D line better than Washington was. But heck as we learned, it doesn't matter. You aren't going to win games with that alone. Also their O line has been crappy until recently. Another Rivera staple. So unless Dart is the answer, seems like their local media and some in the national media believe he is, they can get out of that football hell hole, will see.

As for this season, the narrative seems to be they lost 7 games last season by one score or less, a bunch where they had the lead late and blew it. Their O line is arguably finally fixed. So better coaching fixes it? Dart being the goods fixes it? All unknowns but seems like the media is buying in. But also think (its part of my hatred of that team, too) its partly the national media really really wants them to be good. We like to say they feel that way about Dallas, they want them to be good. But IMO the Giants are the runners up.

And if the Giants start sniffing some success, that's the team IMO that traditionally is the most obnoxious in the division, their fans, and the media that covers them, too. My hope is Harbaugh is so arrogant that it puts a bullseye on their backs. And hopefully Dart doesn't work out. I watched almost every Dart game last season - he's a hard call for me, if I had to bet I'd bet he ends up a good QB, not a great one, but with some clutch ability -- but I can see it going the other way, too, especially as to durability.

But Vegas clearly not buying them, or Washington. And while I agree this team should bounce back. Because this team has been a perennial loser, and the Giants too but for a shorter time, there is definitely skepticism until it proves otherwise. With Washington if they went 8-9 I don't think the skepticism would be as high -- but considering they were miserably bad, feels like there is a we will believe it when we see it vibe.

I am surprised how few are buying Washington bouncing back among the national media, but lol i am trying to remember those who do buy into this team of late like Mel Kiper, Kay Adams among others -- Giants defintelly have leapfrogged Washington as the sexier team coming into the season with the national media. Be interesting to see the allocation of prime time games.
 
Anselmheifer said:


This morning Keim said on his podcast, “If Jeremiyah Love is there at 7, there is no way in hell they are passing on him, based on what they’ve done in free agency”

That’s about as strong a statement as I’ve ever heard Keim make.
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I listened to it. I took it as perhaps he asked someone connected to the team whether the FA signings puts Love off the table for them. And they told him it wouldn't.

If past is prologue, feels like this team doesn't lock into who they want until April. Keim's scoops about who the team likes tend to come closer to the end.

But yeah its a good sign. But I'd also say they'd have to be a bit nuts to feel that Jerome Ford and Rachaad White takes Love off the table.
 
From McShay's emails-- mock

5. New York Giants: RB Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame​
For the reasons I just outlined with the Titans, I’m not fully convinced this is the pick. Pairing Sonny Styles with recently signed LB Tremaine Edmunds could be tempting for the Giants, and I like Caleb Downs here as well. But league intel suggests the Giants are one of the most likely teams to take Love in the top 10 (along with the Commanders and Chiefs, or possibly a team like the Rams in a trade up).​
If you’re drafting a back this high, he needs to be a weapon—and Love is. With excellent speed (4.36 40), natural hands, and a real route-running ability, he gives Jaxson Dart a true explosive outlet. This would signal a clear offensive vision: build around the run game and play-action, similar to how Baltimore developed around Lamar Jackson. Pairing Love with Cam Skattebo (pre-injury form) and Tyrone Tracy Jr. gives the Giants a deep, versatile backfield capable of carrying the offense and maximizing Dart’s strengths.​
​
6. Cleveland Browns: WR Carnell Tate, Ohio State​
The Browns appear to be punting on QB until 2027, which gives them a year to see what they have in Shedeur Sanders and possibly even Deshaun Watson. It’s a smart decision, given the state of their roster (it’s in no position to support another young QB in 2026) and the depth of next year’s quarterback class, which includes Manning, Moore, Sorsby, Sellers, Leavitt, Carr, and Sayin, among others.​
To me, it comes down to tackle or wide receiver here. The Browns’ tackle need is on the left side, so even if Francis Mauigoa is available, he’s likely not the best fit. And Spencer Fano is a career right tackle as well. Tate may not be as talented as past top-10 WR prospects (think Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, or Ja'Marr Chase), but he’s an ascending player with size, length, physicality, and contested-catch ability—traits that almost always translate to high-level NFL production. He would be an awesome complement to Jerry Jeudy.​
By going WR here, the Browns are betting on a quality tackle still being available at pick no. 24. They could also move up to target their guy if necessary.​
​
7. Washington Commanders: LB Sonny Styles, Ohio State​
Linebacker isn’t as big a need for the Commanders as guard, running back, or wide receiver, but Styles would pair beautifully with newly acquired LB Leo Chenal for a defense that ranked dead last in total yards allowed last season. At 6-foot-5 and 244 pounds with an 81-inch wingspan and 10-inch hands, Styles is a physical phenom. He was the biggest linebacker at this year’s combine, ran the fastest 10-yard split (1.56), tied Arvell Reese for the fastest 40 (4.46), and had the most explosive jumps (43.5-inch vertical and 11-foot-2-inch broad). On the field, Styles (a former safety) has elite cover skills, and while his pass rush production and efficiency often get overlooked, the 2024 tape is pretty damn good. He’s everything you look for in a versatile, dynamic chess piece at linebacker in today’s NFL.​
He’s also the type of focused, intelligent grinder who will be a culture fit wherever he lands. Styles could go as high as no. 2 to the Jets and I wouldn’t think it’s too early.​
 
If it’s not Love, Styles or Reese, in that order, I’ll be a touch disappointed.

From there I’d be more than happy with Tate.

From there I’d be fine with Downs.

After that I’d probably prefer a trade down to low to mid teens.
 
KDawg said:
If it’s not Love, Styles or Reese, in that order, I’ll be a touch disappointed.

From there I’d be more than happy with Tate.

From there I’d be fine with Downs.

After that I’d probably prefer a trade down to low to mid teens.
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This is where I’m at, too. Guess I am now a closet OSU fan. 🤷🏻‍♂️
 
KDawg said:
If it’s not Love, Styles or Reese, in that order, I’ll be a touch disappointed.

From there I’d be more than happy with Tate.

From there I’d be fine with Downs.

After that I’d probably prefer a trade down to low to mid teens.
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For me, assuming Bailey and Reese are gone as many expect but you never know.

Giddy if they took
1. Love
2. Styles

Excited if they took
1. Tate

I am good if they took
1. Downs
2. Delane

I'll go for the ride without complaints but will worry some
1. Bain
2. Tyson
 
skinsinparadise said:
For me, assuming Bailey and Reese are gone as many expect but you never know.

Giddy if they took
1. Love
2. Styles

Excited if they took
1. Tate

I am good if they took
1. Downs
2. Delane

I'll go for the ride without complaints but will worry some
1. Bain
2. Tyson
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I was all about Delane for awhile but I’m on the fence now with him. Just not sure. Need to really absorb him. I think I like him. But I need to digest.

Tyson is moving closer to no go for me with all the medicals. Rumor is the hamstring flared during training, too.

Reese I really like.

Wouldn’t draft Bain or Bailey. Bain because I don’t think he fits us and I need to see him go somewhere he can succeed so I can brag about how right I was 😆
 
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