The 2026 Draft Thread - 1st Round - 7th overall

[KDawg]

Everyone is a bust or candidate for some level of disappointment.

That's part of the job.

If you knew a top pick was going to make it each year then like the Cardinals and Jets you wouldn't be picking there each year. A horrible front office can still screw things up at #2 or #3 overall.

Downs has some knee issues. Tate lacks high end speed. Bain has measurables not favorable for an edge, etc.

Of course Love plays a position where injury, high attrition rates can make you cry about being out on a pick way before he gets to that fifth year option at age 27.

But a lot of this chatter is about things that can limit these players in the FUTURE.

They can also come into the NFL and be quite successful and never face the adversities people put on them.

Emmitt Smith came in running a 4.6 at 5'11 and 190.

Jerry Rice was passed over by a number of other teams because he wasn't a track star.

But production matters. At each level.

It's Peters job to determine whose skills and productivity translate to the next level.

That's why we really won't know who the pick is before the first round is called.

There are so many scenarios - from staying at #7 to moving down and changing our pick by pick strategy.

And we still don't know all the players that will be released in the next 6 weeks before the draft who may be able to help us at a couple of these spots.

Your first few paragraphs was my point.

There is no such thing as a guarantee.

I was replying to someone saying he didn’t want Tate or Bain because our pick at 7 needs to be more of a lock.

Point being - there is no such thing.

Have to trust evals and scouting and the interview process and roll.

 

[BayouBrave86]

I'm still surprised Delane is getting this much Top 10 Buzz let alone Top 5 there.

Undersized without ideal athleticism. He's a good corner prospect for a lot of reasons. But an elite corner prospect? No way.

Yeah the more I think about it, I think Mansoor is worthy of a first round pick but not a top 10 pick. I don’t think he will ever be that elite shutdown corner but he will be a really good CB2 and has a high floor. And I’m still a big believer Amos will be that shutdown guy for us. Had been a while since we had an “elite” college CB at LSU so think I had the rose colored glasses on a little too long with him. Him and Haulcy were much needed and welcome additions to the Tiger secondary. DJ Pickett is going to be our best CB since Stingley though.

 

[BayouBrave86]

Your first few paragraphs was my point.

There is no such thing as a guarantee.

I was replying to someone saying he didn’t want Tate or Bain because our pick at 7 needs to be more of a lock.

Point being - there is no such thing.

Have to trust evals and scouting and the interview process and roll.

Less risk then. Love and Downs have the production AND measurables.

 

[Skinfanjon]

I have this terrible feeling Love, Tate, Bailey, and Reese (along with Mendoza and a Tackle to Arizona) will all be gone. Here’s my order of preference if that occurs:

-trade down and take Lemon or Tyson (awesome)
-draft Lemon or Tyson at 7 (yes really)
-draft Styles at 7 (cool will be happy)
-draft Delane at 7 (cool will be happy)
-draft Downs at 7 (disappointed)
-draft Bain at 7 (absolutely hate it)

I’m very sure most won’t like WRs this high. I strongly disagree. It’s code red and there are two more really good prospects other than Tate. Hope we get one.

Could also still see myself moving Delane above Styles too. He may not be a Champ Bailey level athlete but he has some really sticky coverage. He’s going to be pretty damn good and that’s super valuable in contact values. Drafting him though is AP waiving the white flag on Sainristil to some degree. He’d be pushed inside to contend with Robertson or would have to give safety a go. Wonder where AP’s head on that question would be?

 

[Always Commander Never Captain]

PFF far from a perfect guide to grade games, but lol its the only thing I got. So just looked at grades per game. And was curious about their version of consistency. So grades of 60s-50s are just OK to bad. So 70s plus are good.

Tate -- out of 11 games, one game with below a 70 score

Tyson -- 9 games, 4 games under 70. Another note about him he didn't have the stiffest competiton in general.

Lemon -- 12 games, 4 games under 70

Cooper -- 16 games, 6 games under 70

Concepcion -- 13 games, 8 games under 70

What do you think of Tyson's 2024 film? Cause it looks a bit better. I'm curious if the PFF grading corroborates that.

But that also directly relates to why Tyson is not WR1 in the draft. Is him suffering from a nagging injury just going to be his new normal or not?

 

[Always Commander Never Captain]

I have this terrible feeling Love, Tate, Bailey, and Reese (along with Mendoza and a Tackle to Arizona) will all be gone. Here’s my order of preference if that occurs:

-trade down and take Lemon or Tyson (awesome)
-draft Lemon or Tyson at 7 (yes really)
-draft Styles at 7 (cool will be happy)
-draft Delane at 7 (cool will be happy)
-draft Downs at 7 (disappointed)
-draft Bain at 7 (absolutely hate it)

I’m very sure most won’t like WRs this high. I strongly disagree. It’s code red and there are two more really good prospects other than Tate. Hope we get one.

Could also still see myself moving Delane above Styles too. He may not be a Champ Bailey level athlete but he has some really sticky coverage. He’s going to be pretty damn good and that’s super valuable in contact values. Drafting him though is AP waiving the white flag on Sainristil to some degree. He’d be pushed inside to contend with Robertson or would have to give safety a go. Wonder where AP’s head on that question would be?

Woh that's some high praise for Delane. I'm also not seeing the sticky coverage you are, but I do like him.

Of the prospects I think are a little overrated he's less so than others. I've raised my initial grade of him a smidge.

 

[clskinsfan]

I agree. But Simmons was more polished.

Like I said, I don’t think Styles busts. But I don’t think he’s a lock.

I’d still draft him. Dude has crazy potential.

Styles next to Leo would be pretty incredible speed on one side of the field.

 

[RedWolf]

I was a middle linebacker a long time ago so I am very defensive minded from my football experience. I would love to add a killer linebacker to the squad but we spent most of our money in free agency on defense and I think right now our offense needs help

 

[Conn]

Idk man, I’m a fan of this kind of research but your YPRR stat was much more on the nose imo. I don’t see these groupings as all that dissimilar.

JSN- elite hit
Jefferson- elite hit
Lamb- elite hit
Buka- hit
Jeudy- bust
Hollywood- bust
Bateman- bust
Burks- mega bust

Versus

BTJ- hit or maybe elite hit
Moore- hit
Addison-hit
Ridley- hit
Aiyuk- hit
Flowers- hit
Pearsall- too soon but might be good
QJ - too soon but might be mid
Golden- too soon but might exist
Legette- too soon but might survive
Worthy- too soon but might suck
Toney- bust
Dotson- bust
Raegor- mega bust
Harry- super mega bust


So it’s 4 hits/4 busts vs 6 hits/5 maybes/4 busts. Granted there are three insanely elite hits in the first group and none in the second, but it’s also a small sample and not immune to some luck factor. We probably disagree on BTJ but I’m closer to buying his rookie year than selling his last season. Next season will weigh heavy but the rookie year was so good I gotta give him the benefit of the doubt.

I think the difference in elite hits is really the huge difference (and yes, we disagree broadly on BTJ but I won’t belabor it—I’d still love to trade for him lol) that I’m weighting heavier (and so is the original twitter guy)

Also your general grading here is arbitrary by nature (which is fair but makes the final takeaway more wishy-washy). I’d quibble, but it’s really only a name or two. Which on a short sample size, as you mentioned, skews a lot. But it’s not super important, because my main takeaway is really just identifying mistake patterns that these playoff teams seem too smart to make, but engage in anyways. Just something to have eyes on potentially avoiding in the future, but definitely not a solved science or anything.

 

[Renegade7]

I was a middle linebacker a long time ago so I am very defensive minded from my football experience. I would love to add a killer linebacker to the squad but we spent most of our money in free agency on defense and I think right now our offense needs help

When I saw how fast Styles was, my immediate thought was "this is the future"....

I'd rather have him then Tate, honestly...nearly every QB in the NFL is a mobile threat now....Styles would be the ultimate QB spy in this new era in that context.

 

[DogofWar1]

I think my personal ranking for the big names at the moment would be:
Reese - #1
Styles - #2a
Bailey - #2b
Love - #4
Tate - #5
Downs - #6

Reese can do everything except man coverage on the outside and rushes the passer rather well. Little worse at MIKE/ILB compared to Styles.
Styles is better at MIKE/ILB but...saying he's "worse" at rushing the passer feels mean given he was given few opportunities to. But he certainly hasn't done it. Almost put him behind Bailey due to positional value but he's just so elite in so many categories, he might be tied with Downs for the "best football player" in the draft. Hangs on because I'm sure he can still blitz well.
Bailey is just sorta the ideal pass rusher. I don't buy that he's undersized, his combine measurements are 6'4" 251, he'll be fine. Just a wildly disruptive player at a super high value position. If he improves as a run defender (he's not bad, not great), he'll be a real problem at this level.
Love, as an RB, is better than Bailey is as a DE but positional value pushes him down a bit.
Tate is just a hard worker. He isn't perfect but he does some of the most important things well, like tracking the ball over the shoulder. Bring him here and let him be Terry's understudy for a year and we'll be happy campers.
Downs is likely to be an amazing safety in this league, but man, safety just is not valuable enough as a position to warrant top 10 picks much. He's one of four guys I'd consider "elite" (Reese, Style, Love, Downs) so he'd be a fine pick if the above 5 are gone, but he's still behind them.

 

[peanut0862]

I think my personal ranking for the big names at the moment would be:
Reese - #1
Styles - #2a
Bailey - #2b
Love - #4
Tate - #5
Downs - #6

Reese can do everything except man coverage on the outside and rushes the passer rather well. Little worse at MIKE/ILB compared to Styles.
Styles is better at MIKE/ILB but...saying he's "worse" at rushing the passer feels mean given he was given few opportunities to. But he certainly hasn't done it. Almost put him behind Bailey due to positional value but he's just so elite in so many categories, he might be tied with Downs for the "best football player" in the draft. Hangs on because I'm sure he can still blitz well.
Bailey is just sorta the ideal pass rusher. I don't buy that he's undersized, his combine measurements are 6'4" 251, he'll be fine. Just a wildly disruptive player at a super high value position. If he improves as a run defender (he's not bad, not great), he'll be a real problem at this level.
Love, as an RB, is better than Bailey is as a DE but positional value pushes him down a bit.
Tate is just a hard worker. He isn't perfect but he does some of the most important things well, like tracking the ball over the shoulder. Bring him here and let him be Terry's understudy for a year and we'll be happy campers.
Downs is likely to be an amazing safety in this league, but man, safety just is not valuable enough as a position to warrant top 10 picks much. He's one of four guys I'd consider "elite" (Reese, Style, Love, Downs) so he'd be a fine pick if the above 5 are gone, but he's still behind them.

Replace Bailey with Bain and I'm in love with this list

 

[SkinDeep]

I think my personal ranking for the big names at the moment would be:
Reese - #1
Styles - #2a
Bailey - #2b
Love - #4
Tate - #5
Downs - #6

Reese can do everything except man coverage on the outside and rushes the passer rather well. Little worse at MIKE/ILB compared to Styles.
Styles is better at MIKE/ILB but...saying he's "worse" at rushing the passer feels mean given he was given few opportunities to. But he certainly hasn't done it. Almost put him behind Bailey due to positional value but he's just so elite in so many categories, he might be tied with Downs for the "best football player" in the draft. Hangs on because I'm sure he can still blitz well.
Bailey is just sorta the ideal pass rusher. I don't buy that he's undersized, his combine measurements are 6'4" 251, he'll be fine. Just a wildly disruptive player at a super high value position. If he improves as a run defender (he's not bad, not great), he'll be a real problem at this level.
Love, as an RB, is better than Bailey is as a DE but positional value pushes him down a bit.
Tate is just a hard worker. He isn't perfect but he does some of the most important things well, like tracking the ball over the shoulder. Bring him here and let him be Terry's understudy for a year and we'll be happy campers.
Downs is likely to be an amazing safety in this league, but man, safety just is not valuable enough as a position to warrant top 10 picks much. He's one of four guys I'd consider "elite" (Reese, Style, Love, Downs) so he'd be a fine pick if the above 5 are gone, but he's still behind them.

Pretty close with me. I'd probably only flip 2a and 2b.

 

[KDawg]

I think my personal ranking for the big names at the moment would be:
Reese - #1
Styles - #2a
Bailey - #2b
Love - #4
Tate - #5
Downs - #6

Reese can do everything except man coverage on the outside and rushes the passer rather well. Little worse at MIKE/ILB compared to Styles.
Styles is better at MIKE/ILB but...saying he's "worse" at rushing the passer feels mean given he was given few opportunities to. But he certainly hasn't done it. Almost put him behind Bailey due to positional value but he's just so elite in so many categories, he might be tied with Downs for the "best football player" in the draft. Hangs on because I'm sure he can still blitz well.
Bailey is just sorta the ideal pass rusher. I don't buy that he's undersized, his combine measurements are 6'4" 251, he'll be fine. Just a wildly disruptive player at a super high value position. If he improves as a run defender (he's not bad, not great), he'll be a real problem at this level.
Love, as an RB, is better than Bailey is as a DE but positional value pushes him down a bit.
Tate is just a hard worker. He isn't perfect but he does some of the most important things well, like tracking the ball over the shoulder. Bring him here and let him be Terry's understudy for a year and we'll be happy campers.
Downs is likely to be an amazing safety in this league, but man, safety just is not valuable enough as a position to warrant top 10 picks much. He's one of four guys I'd consider "elite" (Reese, Style, Love, Downs) so he'd be a fine pick if the above 5 are gone, but he's still behind them.

For me it’s:

#1 Love
Space
#3 Styles/Reese
#5 Tate
#6 Bain
#7 Downs

 

[actorguy1]

Utah pro day tomorrow. We need Spencer Fano to have a good day and get a better arm length measurement. If that happens, he will get pushed back into top 6 consideration.

 

[skinsinparadise]

What do you think of Tyson's 2024 film? Cause it looks a bit better. I'm curious if the PFF grading corroborates that.

But that also directly relates to why Tyson is not WR1 in the draft. Is him suffering from a nagging injury just going to be his new normal or not?

I have footage for every 2025 game and watched Tyson now twice, every game but alas i don't have the same access to 2024. I noticed his aggregate stats are better in 2024, PFF grade slightly worse.

Going game by game again purely on PFF scores, alas it does no favors for one of my guys Bernard, he has his share of bad games at least by PFF metrics, but it makes Tate look really good, especially with comps with other WRs, they have him with just one below good game all season -- fits the profile for me, consistency. I watched the whole Indiana game, he looked fine to me. Most people know Michigan is their big game every year, he played very well in it.

Also for whatever reason Ohio State doesn't always feature a dude every game, not even Jeremiah Smith, if you looked at games with the low 40s or below yards, Tate had 4 games like that so did Jeremiah Smith.

Back to Tyson he had more up and down games going purelly with PFF grades, but it doesn't to me negate anything, your skills are your skills, I am not a slave to simple raw stats.

 

[skinsinparadise]

For me it’s:

#1 Love
Space
#3 Styles/Reese
#5 Tate
#6 Bain
#7 Downs

Mine too except I'd swap Downs ahead of Bain.

 

[burgold]

Utah pro day tomorrow. We need Spencer Fano to have a good day and get a better arm length measurement. If that happens, he will get pushed back into top 6 consideration.

Get a better arm length measurement? How does that work? Have they put him on the rack and been stretching him? His length is what he is unless he had a growth spurt only in his arms.

 

[burgold]

In related news, Bain just got remeasured and the tape revealed 34 inch arms. The draft prospect swears it has nothing to do with the Lee Press On nails he's been sporting lately.

 

[DWinzit]