The 2026 Draft Thread - 1st Round - 7th overall

[KDawg]

And the crucial additional detail is that the guys who don’t produce at a high level against high level competition, but still get drafted high ANYWAYS, have generally given teams ample reason to think they’re an exception, so those guys do still hit at a high clip. If the WR-desperate teams though pass on them in the premium pick zone, then the production is clearly perceived as a red flag that outweighs their talent, and that tends to stick and be true even if a competent playoff-level FO is the one who ends up taking them later in the first round.

Meaning, you have to be special for your talent to outweigh your lack of production, and overall as a league the NFL has gotten pretty good at identifying those guys overall and they don’t generally make it to the second half of the first round to begin with. So your late 1st round WR pick better have an elite production profile.

NFL teams individually miss on picks a LOT all over the draft, but the wisdom of the league as a whole over a large sample size still speaks to a general league-wide competence over time. It’s easy to lose sight of because we care a lot about busts, for good reason. And individual organizations can be awful and make terrible picks all the time. But hit rates still follow draft slot as a trend. Part of that is organizational buy-in and leash given to high picks, but the league is also just getting more efficient all the time. It’s harder to find an edge in roster building these days, and it’ll get harder.

I’d be interested in how reliable the thresholds are.

For instance, Tate doesn’t have the numbers, but that makes sense given who he has played next to and with. Including two outstanding running backs last year and Jeremiah Smith this year (among others).

There is a lot of nuance to this and I’m not sure any “system” can ever really capture it. But I’m glad people are trying.

 

[RWJ]

Tate and Downs looking like the front runners at #7.

 

[Conn]

I’d be interested in how reliable the thresholds are.

For instance, Tate doesn’t have the numbers, but that makes sense given who he has played next to and with. Including two outstanding running backs last year and Jeremiah Smith this year (among others).

There is a lot of nuance to this and I’m not sure any “system” can ever really capture it. But I’m glad people are trying.

For sure. The edges on this stuff have to get very fuzzy near the thresholds. Fascinating though.

 

[skinsinparadise]

I had thought months ago, if you asked me which WR from this class was most likely to be a top 20 NFL WR in 5 years, I'd say Tate.

If you asked which one was most likely to be top 10, it would NOT be Tate, it'd probably be Tyson, but the field is a bit more of a mess, and there's a reasonable chance none of them are.

Tate doesn't feel like he'll be the next Chase/Jefferson hyper elite guy. But in some senses, he kind of reminds me of Terry (not straight line speed). Just a hard worker you know will put in the hours.

Part of why it feels like a good story. One hard working Ohio WR teaching another younger hard working Ohio WR. We definitely need a plan for the post-Terry era, and you could do worse than Tate.

If Pierce is getting 30 million, Tate to me is a similar idea. They are different. But the result is the same - making big plays down the field. I think Tate is the better player. And I was one of the only ones who on the draft thread who liked Pierce.

I've been watching a lot of WR play this week because post FA it feels like that's what they are doing in the first or third. There were zero WRs, nada, zip, who can track the deep ball like Tate and make those hard catches look easy -- none.

As far as Terry goes, he also wasn't a loved prospect on the draft thread to say the least. The college version of Terry IMO wasn't as good as Tate as to ball tracking and making hard catches look easy -- Terry was and is still sometimes a bit of body catcher.

The current version of Terry IMO is more physical at the catch point than Tate and is better at YAC. Tate IMO has the better hands and is better at tracking the deep ball. Terry majored in the deep ball in college too but it was more about his speed IMO than hands.

I don't mind the Terry comps. They are a little different IMO, but its the right ballpark as to the comps




That's the PFF stat they swear by, a 3 score of above is elite. Hardly anyone in this class has a 3 or above, two of the only ones are Tate and Lemon.

Revisiting Yards Per Route Run

sumersports.com

On the surface, Yards Per Route Run (YPRR) is simple. It is the amount of receiving yards a receiver accumulates divided by the number of routes they have run.

YPRR folds multiple receiver skills into one metric; it accounts for targets being earned by the receiver and accounts for what the receiver does with each target.

 

[BayouBrave86]

I’d be interested in how reliable the thresholds are.

For instance, Tate doesn’t have the numbers, but that makes sense given who he has played next to and with. Including two outstanding running backs last year and Jeremiah Smith this year (among others).

There is a lot of nuance to this and I’m not sure any “system” can ever really capture it. But I’m glad people are trying.

To Tate’s credit he did miss a few games. But counter point is he really didn’t show up in the big game minus a TD vs Indiana in the Big 10 champ game in the first quarter. He was shut down after that and he was a complete no show in the playoffs this season and didn’t do anything to stand out last postseason either. Playmakers make plays in the big games! He looked like an absolute ghost vs Miami.

 

[KDawg]

To Tate’s credit he did miss a few games. But counter point is he really didn’t show up in the big game minus a TD vs Indiana in the Big 10 champ game in the first quarter. He was shut down after that and he was a complete no show in the playoffs this season and didn’t do anything to stand out last postseason either. Playmakers make plays in the big games! He looked like an absolute ghost vs Miami.

Most of Ohio State did, though.

And keep in mind, too, that argument needs to go both ways. Bain was dominant. I don’t remember you being a Bain guy - but if Tate gets knocked, Bain gets credit.

But to some extent I do agree. I think Tate is weak for a top receiver. But I don’t think he’s weak as a receiver if that makes sense.

 

[BayouBrave86]

Also, I can’t believe Love is getting so much top 5 hype all of a sudden. But credit to him for being in that Bijan/Gibbs hype mold. Truly could help whatever offense he ends up on. But if WRs are more valuable than RB, I’m just hoping the Titans decide to go with Tate and give Cam that WR weapon he desperately needs.

 

[BayouBrave86]

Most of Ohio State did, though.

And keep in mind, too, that argument needs to go both ways. Bain was dominant. I don’t remember you being a Bain guy - but if Tate gets knocked, Bain gets credit.

But to some extent I do agree. I think Tate is weak for a top receiver. But I don’t think he’s weak as a receiver if that makes sense.

Miami went 07 Giants on that playoff run, it’s amazing what a dominant dline can do when the going gets tough. I LOVED Bain until those measurements came out. My dislike of him is just past history at this point. Maybe he breaks the mold. If we were in a much better situation talent wise currently on the roster, sure take a stab at him or Tate..but we really can’t afford to miss on this pick imo. That’s why a player like Love or Downs are so crucial. They’re can’t miss imo. Styles would be great too but even he’s not in that can’t miss realm, but I think the NFL will utilize his talents more at that level than in college. Sort of like AJ from BYU’s game is more suited for the NBA.

 

[DWinzit]

Tnhis


To this discussion -- yes things can change but lol as far as mocks and some of it via conversation with scouts according to some of the higher profile media draft guys -- as to what impacts Washington's pick -- right now it feels like NY.

QB #1 -- Reese and Bailey in some order 2 and 3. Titans: Love. Browns: the Georgia tackle. Yeah its possible a wildcard happens like the Cards going O line or the Browns going WR or the Giants going Downs.

But for argument's sake if there is something to the smoke its whomever the Giants don't take between Styles and Tate, could be this team's pick with Downs as the darkhorse.

Maybe its wishful thinking on my end but it feels like the buzz has died down a little for Styles post combine. Tough for me to see the Giants pass over Styles. But heck if they want to maximize Dart, taking Tate I can see in play for them.

To Forbes point, forget elite WRs, even 2nd tier ones go for big money. Personally I think Tate ends up sort of mid to lower tier #1 like an Olave, Drake type. But heck even if its a 2nd type like a Pittman, they command big money. LBs not so much. But I'd still pull the trigger on Styles.

Presently it does seem as though the Giants impact us at 7 the most. Funny thing about the Mick's and what the "experts" are saying is there is a world where Tate, Downs and Styles reach 7. That was also the case 3 months ago. Then Downs propaganda was abound and there was no way he reached 7. Then it was Tate and Styles after the combine blowing up and it didn't look like either would reach 7. the dust is settling and we are back to where we were months ago. The main difference now is Downs health question

I figure they must take Tate unless they make a big FA move on a WR2.

The one other thing I'd question with receiver is....do they love Tyson (or Lemon)? It is possible...or is it what Conn was saying about a team reaching due to need to WR

They cannot count on a WR at 71. That would be the 2025 WR group build

I still like Styles more than all of them

 

[Always Commander Never Captain]

I'm still surprised Delane is getting this much Top 10 Buzz let alone Top 5 there.

Undersized without ideal athleticism. He's a good corner prospect for a lot of reasons. But an elite corner prospect? No way.

 

[skinsinparadise]

PFF far from a perfect guide to grade games, but lol its the only thing I got. So just looked at grades per game. And was curious about their version of consistency. So grades of 60s-50s are just OK to bad. So 70s plus are good.

Tate -- out of 11 games, one game with below a 70 score

Tyson -- 9 games, 4 games under 70. Another note about him he didn't have the stiffest competiton in general.

Lemon -- 12 games, 4 games under 70

Cooper -- 16 games, 6 games under 70

Concepcion -- 13 games, 8 games under 70

 

[KDawg]

Miami went 07 Giants on that playoff run, it’s amazing what a dominant dline can do when the going gets tough. I LOVED Bain until those measurements came out. My dislike of him is just past history at this point. Maybe he breaks the mold. If we were in a much better situation talent wise currently on the roster, sure take a stab at him or Tate..but we really can’t afford to miss on this pick imo. That’s why a player like Love or Downs are so crucial. They’re can’t miss imo. Styles would be great too but even he’s not in that can’t miss realm, but I think the NFL will utilize his talents more at that level than in college. Sort of like AJ from BYU’s game is more suited for the NBA.

See, I think Downs and Styles are both bust candidates. I don’t think they will. But Downs with potential knee issues and Styles reminds me a ton of Isaiah Simmons who I LOVED.

I’m not saying I wouldn’t take them. But I am saying I’m not sure they are slam dunks.

 

[skinsinparadise]

Presently it does seem as though the Giants impact us at 7 the most. Funny thing about the Mick's and what the "experts" are saying is there is a world where Tate, Downs and Styles reach 7. That was also the case 3 months ago. Then Downs propaganda was abound and there was no way he reached 7. Then it was Tate and Styles after the combine blowing up and it didn't look like either would reach 7. the dust is settling and we are back to where we were months ago. The main difference now is Downs health question

I figure they must take Tate unless they make a big FA move on a WR2.

The one other thing I'd question with receiver is....do they love Tyson (or Lemon)? It is possible...or is it what Conn was saying about a team reaching due to need to WR

They cannot count on a WR at 71. That would be the 2025 WR group build

I still like Styles more than all of them

Me, too as to Styles. He's a freak and supposedly off the charts intangibles, too.

I'd be more stoked than most here if they take Tate. The more I digest him, the more I think he's going to be a good pro and its a premium position.

Downs would be interesting in that IMO I think he's the perfect addition to the defense. I saw the Logan tweet where he didn't see that nickle hybrid being that key to the Flores style defense. True. But its also a defense that does a large number of three safety sets. And the safety is often the QB on the field. All of that IMO speaks to Downs.

For me its Styles by a hair over Tate and Tate a half a peg over Downs. But would be cool with any of the three for different reasons.

 

[RedWolf]

I really think we need somebody to replace Terry eventually. I really like Tate because of his size. Lemon is also becoming attractive but I think he will be a very good slot, due to size. I hate to be pigeonholed into a position, but I really think this is our greatest weakness at this point

 

[skinsinparadise]

See, I think Downs and Styles are both bust candidates. I don’t think they will. But Downs with potential knee issues and Styles reminds me a ton of Isaiah Simmons who I LOVED.

I’m not saying I wouldn’t take them. But I am saying I’m not sure they are slam dunks.

I think Styles has much better read-react in him than Simmons did.

 

[Skinfanjon]

For those wanting to trade back and take a WR in the mid-late 1st: beware the production profile:

Idk man, I’m a fan of this kind of research but your YPRR stat was much more on the nose imo. I don’t see these groupings as all that dissimilar.

JSN- elite hit
Jefferson- elite hit
Lamb- elite hit
Buka- hit
Jeudy- bust
Hollywood- bust
Bateman- bust
Burks- mega bust

Versus

BTJ- hit or maybe elite hit
Moore- hit
Addison-hit
Ridley- hit
Aiyuk- hit
Flowers- hit
Pearsall- too soon but might be good
QJ - too soon but might be mid
Golden- too soon but might exist
Legette- too soon but might survive
Worthy- too soon but might suck
Toney- bust
Dotson- bust
Raegor- mega bust
Harry- super mega bust


So it’s 4 hits/4 busts vs 6 hits/5 maybes/4 busts. Granted there are three insanely elite hits in the first group and none in the second, but it’s also a small sample and not immune to some luck factor. We probably disagree on BTJ but I’m closer to buying his rookie year than selling his last season. Next season will weigh heavy but the rookie year was so good I gotta give him the benefit of the doubt.

 

[KDawg]

I think Styles has much better read-react in him than Simmons did.

I agree. But Simmons was more polished.

Like I said, I don’t think Styles busts. But I don’t think he’s a lock.

I’d still draft him. Dude has crazy potential.

 

[BayouBrave86]

Simmons is a good cautionary tale but he was also extremely lazy when he got to the next level. A little Chase Young to his game where he thought his natural talent could just carry him. Think I remember there being some reports on how pissed off the Cards were with his effort.

The knee stuff is eye opening for Downs but he’s never had any major knee injuries. Just don’t think there’s really a weakness to his game minus that one concern. Well maybe his propensity to gamble in coverage sometimes, but I’ll let it slide 😂

 

[Bulldog]

Everyone is a bust or candidate for some level of disappointment.

That's part of the job.

If you knew a top pick was going to make it each year then like the Cardinals and Jets you wouldn't be picking there each year. A horrible front office can still screw things up at #2 or #3 overall.

Downs has some knee issues. Tate lacks high end speed. Bain has measurables not favorable for an edge, etc.

Of course Love plays a position where injury, high attrition rates can make you cry about being out on a pick way before he gets to that fifth year option at age 27.

But a lot of this chatter is about things that can limit these players in the FUTURE.

They can also come into the NFL and be quite successful and never face the adversities people put on them.

Emmitt Smith came in running a 4.6 at 5'11 and 190.

Jerry Rice was passed over by a number of other teams because he wasn't a track star.

But production matters. At each level.

It's Peters job to determine whose skills and productivity translate to the next level.

That's why we really won't know who the pick is before the first round is called.

There are so many scenarios - from staying at #7 to moving down and changing our pick by pick strategy.

And we still don't know all the players that will be released in the next 6 weeks before the draft who may be able to help us at a couple of these spots.

 

[BayouBrave86]

The thought of Styles on this defense though is tantalizing. If he hits, QBs wouldn’t be able to sleep at night. Oweh, Chaisson, Styles, Armstrong, Chenal, Sainristil..where are they all coming from?!