The 2026 Draft Thread - 1st Round - 7th overall

I’d expect the same response from you if I posted a few times about Tate on one page (which I probably have), all good brother!
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Receiver is messy, but talented.

Tate: Consistent, good at everything, versatile, but not overwhelming in any category to make him truly stand out. Slightly concerned about how he'll do against press against high end corners

Tyson: Walking injury, physical freak, productive when healthy, rounds routes, higher drop rate than you'd want, but a beast of a route runner, high end contested catch guy

Lemon: Pure slot, good route runner, good hands, finds space, attacks leverage, potentially best hands in the group, potential character concerns, not explosive off the line and can get caught at the LoS

Boston: Big, strong, athletic, good catch radius, releases aren't fantastic, not fast despite good athleticism, less productive against higher end comp

C. Bell: Underrated due to ACL, big guy who runs a 4.4, YAC machine, limited route tree, not quick twitch, doesn't get off press well

Branch: More than half of his receptions were behind the LoS in '25, jumps to catch everything, attacks leverage, YAC is special, high end speed

Germie: Not huge on YAC all the time and not as fast as you'd want in a slot, but breaks tackles with size and power, polished route runner, damn good hands, excellent catch to run transition

Fields: Doesn't have great off the line burst, limited route tree, not great at scramble drill, great body language, can attack all zones, good catch radius, ridiculous contested catch guy, best run blocker of the bunch imo

Concepcion: Explosive, athletic, great hips, fast, return man, physical, 19 drops vs. 186 receptions, can get bullied on the LoS

Sarratt: Isn't a down field threat, and isn't going to get a ton of YAC, red zone monster, high football IQ, fantastic against zone, excellent body control, hands catcher, loves run blocking

There are more, too, that deserve some conversation.

All of these guys are flawed.

Tyson is probably the best of the group if you could guarantee health - but you can't.

Lemon is special, but if rumors are true he may be a guy that is a real risk.

Bell is very likely the sleeper of the class.

Sarratt is the mid round prize - I almost guarantee he will be a productive NFL receiver, but I don't think he's challenging to be the 1 anywhere.

Tate is the most consistent.

The class is kind of a crapshoot.
 
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Receiver is messy, but talented.

Tate: Consistent, good at everything, versatile, but not overwhelming in any category to make him truly stand out. Slightly concerned about how he'll do against press against high end corners

Tyson: Walking injury, physical freak, productive when healthy, rounds routes, higher drop rate than you'd want, but a beast of a route runner, high end contested catch guy

Lemon: Pure slot, good route runner, good hands, finds space, attacks leverage, potentially best hands in the group, potential character concerns, not explosive off the line and can get caught at the LoS

Boston: Big, strong, athletic, good catch radius, releases aren't fantastic, not fast despite good athleticism, less productive against higher end comp

C. Bell: Underrated due to ACL, big guy who runs a 4.4, YAC machine, limited route tree, not quick twitch, doesn't get off press well

Branch: More than half of his receptions were behind the LoS in '25, jumps to catch everything, attacks leverage, YAC is special, high end speed

Germie: Not huge on YAC all the time and not as fast as you'd want in a slot, but breaks tackles with size and power, polished route runner, damn good hands, excellent catch to run transition

Fields: Doesn't have great off the line burst, limited route tree, not great at scramble drill, great body language, can attack all zones, good catch radius, ridiculous contested catch guy, best run blocker of the bunch imo

Concepcion: Explosive, athletic, great hips, fast, return man, physical, 19 drops vs. 186 receptions, can get bullied on the LoS

Sarratt: Isn't a down field threat, and isn't going to get a ton of YAC, red zone monster, high football IQ, fantastic against zone, excellent body control, hands catcher, loves run blocking

There are more, too, that deserve some conversation.

All of these guys are flawed.

Tyson is probably the best of the group if you could guarantee health - but you can't.

Lemon is special, but if rumors are true he may be a guy that is a real risk.

Bell is very likely the sleeper of the class.

Sarratt is the mid round prize - I almost guarantee he will be a productive NFL receiver, but I don't think he's challenging to be the 1 anywhere.

Tate is the most consistent.

The class is kind of a crapshoot.
Excellent post. Seriously. :)
 
Receiver is messy, but talented.

Tate: Consistent, good at everything, versatile, but not overwhelming in any category to make him truly stand out. Slightly concerned about how he'll do against press against high end corners

Tyson: Walking injury, physical freak, productive when healthy, rounds routes, higher drop rate than you'd want, but a beast of a route runner, high end contested catch guy

Lemon: Pure slot, good route runner, good hands, finds space, attacks leverage, potentially best hands in the group, potential character concerns, not explosive off the line and can get caught at the LoS

Boston: Big, strong, athletic, good catch radius, releases aren't fantastic, not fast despite good athleticism, less productive against higher end comp

C. Bell: Underrated due to ACL, big guy who runs a 4.4, YAC machine, limited route tree, not quick twitch, doesn't get off press well

Branch: More than half of his receptions were behind the LoS in '25, humps to catch everything, attacks leverage, YAC is special, high end speed

Germie: Not huge on YAC all the time and not as fast as you'd want in a slot, but breaks tackles with size and power, polished route runner, damn good hands, excellent catch to run transition

Fields: Doesn't have great off the line burst, limited route tree, not great at scramble drill, great body language, can attack all zones, good catch radius, ridiculous contested catch guy, best run blocker of the bunch imo

Concepcion: Explosive, athletic, great hips, fast, return man, physical, 19 drops vs. 186 receptions, can get bullied on the LoS

Sarratt: Isn't a down field threat, and isn't going to get a ton of YAC, red zone monster, high football IQ, fantastic against zone, excellent body control, hands catcher, loves run blocking

There are more, too, that deserve some conversation.

All of these guys are flawed.

Tyson is probably the best of the group if you could guarantee health - but you can't.

Lemon is special, but if rumors are true he may be a guy that is a real risk.

Bell is very likely the sleeper of the class.

Sarratt is the mid round prize - I almost guarantee he will be a productive NFL receiver, but I don't think he's challenging to be the 1 anywhere.

Tate is the most consistent.

The class is kind of a crapshoot.

I'll hit the ones I've watched. I've watched Tate, Tyson and Lemon a ton. Like i did for Jayden, Maye 2 drafts ago I've watched every game of theirs twice so am the most confident on my takes on them. Agree on most of these takes, also disagree a little too but as some say that's what makes discussion fun.

Tate -- His body control with the ball in the air is poetry in motion and can adjust to poorly thrown balls. His glidiing style of running reminds me of AJ Green-Devonte Smith. Ball tracking ability 10 out of 10. Good contested catch player but more so as for highpointing the point or tracking it better than the defender versus wrestilng the ball. One of the better blockers in this class. Smooth and effortless. Kind of boring on that front its like watching college George Pickens -- its like yeah I get you are good at stemming routes, and being at the right place for 2nd-and 3rd level throws but where are the exciting one handed catches or watching you bulldoze a defender? I get the boredom watching him. But then the more I am watching him, the more I am sold at him at 7. Yes he's not an elite WR. But definitiely IMO slam dunk in the conversations with that tier of Drake London, Devonte Smith, Olave -- and coming from someone who liked all three of those WRs, Tate IMO is better than them as a college prospect IMO. Weaknesses -- not sure about him against physical press corners, and YAC is yawn and isn't exciting.

Tyson -- insanely quick feet, allows him to do some quick double moves in short spaces, very twichy, plays with a ton of energy. Not much of a YAC player, so so on contested catches -- he will wrestle the ball and is feisty on that front but if you watch all his reps to my eyes he's nothing special as far as ending up with the ball with a defender draped on him. He has the most highlight plays. If you only watch the highlights of these players, you would easily come away saying Tyson is the best WR in this group because his spectacular plays are the most memorable. Of the three top WRs he's the dude that you wonder if he hit his potential he can be really special because his special is very special. But lacks consistency. And what bugs me about him is if you want to major in first level catches than be special with YAC and he's not. For a dude that plays with so much energy, its weird to me how meh he is with YAC. With Tate who actually has slightly better YAC numbers than Tyson it doesn't bother me as much because he's not majoring in first level catches guy -- his YAC comes from the throw. It's like a less consistent Malik Nabers but imagine Nabers without being dangerous with the ball in his hands.

Lemon: The weirdness and hearing that he didn't interview well bothers me. He is a baller. He looks smaller than his declared size but plays bigger than the size. He's feisty and won't be denied if the ball is thrown in his area or with the ball in his hands. He's the smaller of the three top WRs but he plays the strongest and with the most verve. Makes some spectacular catches. He is great versus zone defenses -- he finds the soft spots-holes. Best YAC player of the top 3. Clutch. Of the three WRs, he's just as good in the red zone in spite of his size. What I don't like: the interviews from what I heard, looks like a pure slot, can he beat press? Of the three he'd be the one I'd trust the most with the game on the line in a key spot.

Denzel Boston -- I hate that he didn't run the 40 and he admitted he did so on the advice of his agent -- translation to me is its a red flag. But if he falls to the third for that reason, I am game at rolling the dice on him. He reminds me of Drake London, not as good. But he's so physical at the catch point, and also has good body control and can high point the ball well. Soft hands. Might be the best run blocker in this group. Good red zone target. He's long legged and even if he's not fast, if you give him space his long speed looks decent. They even have him return kicks where you can see it.

Bernard: High floor player. If I had to pick someone from here aside from Tate who will be in my guys list as the draft gets closer, he will be on it. He can do everything well, quick seperator in short space like a Tyson but isn't twitchy like Tyson so it doesn't come off as electric looking. Good YAC player, physical player. Soft hands, drops almost nothing. Good physical blocker. IMO he's sort of a cross between Tyson and Lemon stylistically. Not twitchy, not much of a deep threat. But I'd be surprised if he's not successful in the pros.

Omar Cooper: Fun watch, similar to Bernard, underneath guy, really good with YAC -- more physical of a runner than twitchy. A lot of quick outs with him but he makes something out of those plays. Good blocker. Has a nose for the end zone. High floor player. He has a little Luther Burden with the ball in his hands, albiet I haven't seen anyone make that comp.

KC Concepion: I hear he's a super good guy, so I like that and that means more to me when I think of players where consistency is a concern like I have for him. Fun to watch as a returner. So explosive. He can make an acroabtic catch one play and then a bad drop the next. Not a physical player including meh as a blocker. My favorite YAC player in this class. He accelerates so fast and has some moves in open field. I can see KC-Rams-SF turning him into something special. He has the tools but IMO wildly inconsistent. The more electric player in this group.

Antonio Willliams. Reminds me of a slot version of Bernard. Consistent. Good blocker. Great hands, Quick seperator. He might be there in the third, if so I'd love it. He's another dude I'd be surprised if he's not at least a decent NFL player. Immediate improvement in the slot for this team.

Eric Rivers: just watched him. He to me is sort of a deep threat version of college Jaylin Lane. Undersized and fast like Lane. A bit more of a refined route runner than Lane but not a ton in the route tree -- lots of hitches, shallow crosses, comeback. But he can track the deep ball. He accelerates fast. In the 5th-6th round am good with rolling the dice on him.

Elijah Sarratt: Reminds me in a sense of Tate in that his superpowers are boring to watch but to me it doesn't diminish them. Really high intangibles. Menace in the red zone-end zone. Good with contested catches. Probably the best red zone-end zone player in this group. Reliable on key downs. I don't like that he didn't run. I am not looking for burners as to posession WRs but also don't want to see a red flag time like 4.7, etc. Good hands, not great hands. But in short, it looks like he's very assignment sound -- he is where he is supposed to be. You can see that some while watching Omar Cooper where Cooper is adjusting to throws but I am assuming that's because Cooper is a tick off on spacing. You don't see it to that same degree with Sarratt.
 
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I don't know who this heath guy is and I am always skeptical of people who tout their own models for anything.

But what his model spit out is ... interesting? Maybe?

Maybe not.
 
I don't know who this heath guy is and I am always skeptical of people who tout their own models for anything.

But what his model spit out is ... interesting? Maybe?

Maybe not.
I mean it makes sense that later picks would have a higher bust rate. Really nothing new there at all imo.
 
I don't know who this heath guy is and I am always skeptical of people who tout their own models for anything.

But what his model spit out is ... interesting? Maybe?

Maybe not.

Basically this ⬆️

Anytime they talk about their "model".... I'm just waiting for the subscription sales pitch to start.
 


The combination of below 90th percentile production and post-15th pick is where his model really nails busts. Guys taken in the top-15 picks who don’t meet the criteria still hit at a higher rate because NFL teams are more confident overall in their skill sets and draft them in premium player range.

So it’ll be interesting to watch. If a guy like Tate falls out of the top-15 then NFL teams agree with you, and whoever does then draft him in the second half of the first round is ignoring the production profile and the fact that their WR-needy peers didn’t give the top-15 draft pedigree green flag that can overcome it.

Whereas if he goes in the top-15, especially the top-10, then it’s more likely over a larger sample size that the team ignoring the production profile red flag has good reason to do so. Obviously individual players can still miss, it’s a numbers game and every draft pick adds to the sample size.

Pretty fascinating though. Obviously it’s a bit arbitrary to cut it off and draw the line at pick 15, so it’ll never be perfect, but you have to pick apart the sample somewhere

The fact that these red flag production profiles in the 15-32 range go to more proven playoff teams with better rosters and support systems, likely better QB’s, more established cultures…and still fail at a much higher rate. It’s very compelling data.
 
Tnhis
I still find it hard to see both Tate and Styles reaching 7. One or the other, sure.

To this discussion -- yes things can change but lol as far as mocks and some of it via conversation with scouts according to some of the higher profile media draft guys -- as to what impacts Washington's pick -- right now it feels like NY.

QB #1 -- Reese and Bailey in some order 2 and 3. Titans: Love. Browns: the Georgia tackle. Yeah its possible a wildcard happens like the Cards going O line or the Browns going WR or the Giants going Downs.

But for argument's sake if there is something to the smoke its whomever the Giants don't take between Styles and Tate, could be this team's pick with Downs as the darkhorse.

Maybe its wishful thinking on my end but it feels like the buzz has died down a little for Styles post combine. Tough for me to see the Giants pass over Styles. But heck if they want to maximize Dart, taking Tate I can see in play for them.

To Forbes point, forget elite WRs, even 2nd tier ones go for big money. Personally I think Tate ends up sort of mid to lower tier #1 like an Olave, Drake type. But heck even if its a 2nd type like a Pittman, they command big money. LBs not so much. But I'd still pull the trigger on Styles.

 
I mean it makes sense that later picks would have a higher bust rate. Really nothing new there at all imo.

No, late first round WR’s with the red flag production profile he targeted have a high bust rate, not all late first round WR’s. It IS interesting because the teams taking these players are generally better situations who should hypothetically be able to develop the guys with the traits they’re prioritizing over the production. But it’s generally not happening.

Whereas guys without elite production profiles who go in the first half of the first round generally go SO high despite it because those teams have reason to value the skillset at a blue chip level. So the bust rate is lower despite similar red flags around college production

It’s more interesting than you’re making it out to be imo, it’s not as simple as “more talented guys go higher than less talented guys”, it’s that these playoff teams in the 15-32 range are reaching on flawed prospects that they think have traits that overcome their lack of elite skillset and production profile, and they’re generally wrong. A good example the guy pointed out is playoff teams who think they just need a speedster deep threat to “finish” their offensive skill group, and the dudes rarely hit. Smart teams are making this mistake over and over again

But then you get to the second round and the hit rate on WR’s in general is pretty high! Because you’re back to teams just evaluating talent/production in a vacuum and not trying to force something for their “we almost made the SB” roster. It is interesting imo. It’s a case of generally competent, smart organizations consistently making the same mistake and being punished for it. Making the early 2nd round a good place to sit and draft falling WR prospects who may be more well-rounded talents but didn’t have that “trump card” trait that made playoff teams the previous night take the risk on a less productive prospect for a specific role on the roster.
 
Basically this ⬆️

Anytime they talk about their "model".... I'm just waiting for the subscription sales pitch to start.

Lots of analytics guys out there these days digging deep for the love of the game without any sort of subscription model. Not all the spaghetti sticks to the wall but at best these guys are usually trying to build a following so they get invited onto more established peers’ podcasts and maybe get hired someday to make money doing what they love in a currently VERY saturated FF/gambling content-maker market.
 
No, late first round WR’s with the red flag production profile he targeted have a high bust rate, not all late first round WR’s. It IS interesting because the teams taking these players are generally better situations who should hypothetically be able to develop the guys with the traits they’re prioritizing over the production. But it’s generally not happening.

Whereas guys without elite production profiles who go in the first half of the first round generally go SO high despite it because those teams have reason to value the skillset at a blue chip level. So the bust rate is lower despite similar red flags around college production

It’s more interesting than you’re making it out to be imo, it’s not as simple as “more talented guys go higher than less talented guys”, it’s that these playoff teams in the 15-32 range are reaching on flawed prospects that they think have traits that overcome their lack of elite skillset and production profile, and they’re generally wrong. A good example the guy pointed out is playoff teams who think they just need a speedster deep threat to “finish” their offensive skill group, and the dudes rarely hit. Smart teams are making this mistake over and over again

But then you get to the second round and the hit rate on WR’s in general is pretty high! Because you’re back to teams just evaluating talent/production in a vacuum and not trying to force something for their “we almost made the SB” roster. It is interesting imo. It’s a case of generally competent, smart organizations consistently making the same mistake and being punished for it. Making the early 2nd round a good place to sit and draft falling WR prospects who may be more well-rounded talents but didn’t have that “trump card” trait that made playoff teams the previous night take the risk on a less productive prospect for a specific role on the roster.
I actually think it makes a ton of sense. Ball production matters. Of course, so does context. But a guy who produces at a high level against high level competition will generally hit.

A guy who doesn’t produce against high level competition generally won’t.

The context comes in for a good player playing against sub par talent that racks up numbers. Have to understand that.
 
I had thought months ago, if you asked me which WR from this class was most likely to be a top 20 NFL WR in 5 years, I'd say Tate.

If you asked which one was most likely to be top 10, it would NOT be Tate, it'd probably be Tyson, but the field is a bit more of a mess, and there's a reasonable chance none of them are.

Tate doesn't feel like he'll be the next Chase/Jefferson hyper elite guy. But in some senses, he kind of reminds me of Terry (not straight line speed). Just a hard worker you know will put in the hours.

Part of why it feels like a good story. One hard working Ohio WR teaching another younger hard working Ohio WR. We definitely need a plan for the post-Terry era, and you could do worse than Tate.
 
I actually think it makes a ton of sense. Ball production matters. Of course, so does context. But a guy who produces at a high level against high level competition will generally hit.

A guy who doesn’t produce against high level competition generally won’t.

The context comes in for a good player playing against sub par talent that racks up numbers. Have to understand that.

And the crucial additional detail is that the guys who don’t produce at a high level against high level competition, but still get drafted high ANYWAYS, have generally given teams ample reason to think they’re an exception, so those guys do still hit at a high clip. If the WR-desperate teams though pass on them in the premium pick zone, then the production is clearly perceived as a red flag that outweighs their talent, and that tends to stick and be true even if a competent playoff-level FO is the one who ends up taking them later in the first round.

Meaning, you have to be special for your talent to outweigh your lack of production, and overall as a league the NFL has gotten pretty good at identifying those guys overall and they don’t generally make it to the second half of the first round to begin with. So your late 1st round WR pick better have an elite production profile.

NFL teams individually miss on picks a LOT all over the draft, but the wisdom of the league as a whole over a large sample size still speaks to a general league-wide competence over time. It’s easy to lose sight of because we care a lot about busts, for good reason. And individual organizations can be awful and make terrible picks all the time. But hit rates still follow draft slot as a trend. Part of that is organizational buy-in and leash given to high picks, but the league is also just getting more efficient all the time. It’s harder to find an edge in roster building these days, and it’ll get harder.
 

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