The 2026 Draft Thread - 1st Round - 7th overall

[philibusters]

I was listening to Vinny Cerrato on the Kevin Sheehan podcast describe Oweh. Said he is very explosive, but not bendy and so-so run defender. That made me think he is a probably a realistic comp for David Bailey--not a high end or low end, but like a realistic over/under type comp. Both are super explosive, neither has the ankle or hip flexibility to turn a tight corner so if they win the edge it is often on a slighter wider arc than the elite bendy pass rusher, both can convert speed to power, neither is a good run defender, but are good enough at it to be three down players

 

[KDawg]

I was listening to Vinny Cerrato on the Kevin Sheehan podcast describe Oweh. Said he is very explosive, but not bendy and so-so run defender. That made me think he is a probably a realistic comp for David Bailey--not a high end or low end, but like a realistic over/under type comp. Both are super explosive, neither has the ankle or hip flexibility to turn a tight corner so if they win the edge it is often on a slighter wider arc than the elite bendy pass rusher, both can convert speed to power, neither is a good run defender, but are good enough at it to be three down players

I think Oweh is a much better run defender than Bailey. I also think Oweh has better hand usage.

 

[philibusters]

I think Oweh is a much better run defender than Bailey. I also think Oweh has better hand usage.

Sure, but I would counter that saying the over/under on Bailey's career is Oweh is not saying they will be equal in 2026. Oweh is in his prime, year 6 and Bailey will be in year 1. It could certainly be that Bailey never improves his run defense in any meaningful way, but it could also be that over time he improves his handusage and becomes a better run defender (even though it will never likely be a strength for him). For example in year 1, Oweh had 421 pass rush snaps against 168 run snaps so while he was not a true designated pass rusher they used him mostly in passing situations, probably some neutral situations.

 

[KDawg]

Sure, but I would counter that saying the over/under on Bailey's career is Oweh is not saying they will be equal in 2026. Oweh is in his prime, year 6 and Bailey will be in year 1. It could certainly be that Bailey never improves his run defense in any meaningful way, but it could also be that over time he improves his handusage and becomes a better run defender (even though it will never likely be a strength for him)

This is where I differ from many on Bailey.

I think his ceiling is really high. I don’t disagree with anyone there.

But I think his floor is very low.

 

[skinsinparadise]

Listening to Bruce Feldman on Sheehan who is plugged in the league and college football

A. Thinks Bailey is a stud, better prospect than Abdul Carter last year, thinks he goes top 3
B. Same about Reese, also thinks he goes top 3
C. Thinks almost no chance Bailey-Reese fall to 7
D. Seems to think Bain could be there at 7, likes him, tone setter
E. Loves Love. Likes Tate
F. He likes Reeses and Bailey's floor over Bain, but is intrigued by Bain's upside.

A general observation with more time post combine euphoria, Styles seems to be dropping in mocks. Likely means nothing but hard to miss including Yates latest one who has him dropping out of the top 10.

So my current guesses post early FA.

QB, one tackle or guard going top 6, so that leaves 4. And if teams are as enamored with Bailey and Reese as Feldman along with mocks indicate, they are gone. So that leaves 2 player before 7. The draft media seems to now think Love is one of those 2.

So that leaves 1 among Tate, Bain, Styles, Downs.

If so for me
1. Styles
2. Tate
3. Downs
4. Bain -- distant 4th, I'd try to trade back

 

[Bulldog]

I think listening to Vinny Cerrato in 2026 is an exercise in the bizarre.

This is a guy that thought Trung Canidate was going to be a 1,000 yard rusher in Washington.

Rams fans and media were laughing at that.

Remember his draft where we had 3 second round picks and we ended up with 3 receivers?

Malcolm Kelly had a failed medical grade by many teams and barely played in the NFL.

Devin Thomas couldn’t play wide receiver and ended up as a special teams return man in the NFL.

And Fred Davis’ time here ended with some weird off the field stuff regarding an ex girlfriend he allegedly slapped in a club where she was stripping and he had to go to court to face charges.

 

[RWJ]

Listening to Bruce Feldman on Sheehan who is plugged in the league and college football

A. Thinks Bailey is a stud, better prospect than Abdul Carter last year, thinks he goes top 3
B. Same about Reese, also thinks he goes top 3
C. Thinks almost no chance Bailey-Reese fall to 7
D. Seems to think Bain could be there at 7, likes him, tone setter
E. Loves Love. Likes Tate
F. He likes Reeses and Bailey's floor over Bain, but is intrigued by Bain's upside.

A general observation with more time post combine euphoria, Styles seems to be dropping in mocks. Likely means nothing but hard to miss including Yates latest one who has him dropping out of the top 10.

So my current guesses post early FA.

QB, one tackle or guard going top 6, so that leaves 4. And if teams are as enamored with Bailey and Reese as Feldman along with mocks indicate, they are gone. So that leaves 2 player before 7. The draft media seems to now think Love is one of those 2.

So that leaves 1 among Tate, Bain, Styles, Downs.

If so for me
1. Styles
2. Tate
3. Downs
4. Bain -- distant 4th, I'd try to trade back

For me, if we can:
Downs
Styles
or
Trade down and get WR Boston and next best S prospect in either Toledo's Warren or LSU's Haulcy with their next pick in the 2nd round.

 

[Conn]

F. He likes Reeses and Bailey's floor over Bain, but is intrigued by Bain's upside.

Feels like Bain and Bailey should be reversed here in this take from Feldman so that’s interesting

 

[HTTR]

With the Chaisson signing I think we can scratch Bain off the list now. My order of preference remains the same…

Love (looks like he won’t fall to us, but ‘tis better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all)
Downs
Styles
Tate

One of them will fall, and I’d still be happy with any of them. Tate will move up on the list if we don’t do anything exciting at receiver…

 

[method man]

Listening to Bruce Feldman on Sheehan who is plugged in the league and college football

A. Thinks Bailey is a stud, better prospect than Abdul Carter last year, thinks he goes top 3
B. Same about Reese, also thinks he goes top 3
C. Thinks almost no chance Bailey-Reese fall to 7
D. Seems to think Bain could be there at 7, likes him, tone setter
E. Loves Love. Likes Tate
F. He likes Reeses and Bailey's floor over Bain, but is intrigued by Bain's upside.

A general observation with more time post combine euphoria, Styles seems to be dropping in mocks. Likely means nothing but hard to miss including Yates latest one who has him dropping out of the top 10.

So my current guesses post early FA.

QB, one tackle or guard going top 6, so that leaves 4. And if teams are as enamored with Bailey and Reese as Feldman along with mocks indicate, they are gone. So that leaves 2 player before 7. The draft media seems to now think Love is one of those 2.

So that leaves 1 among Tate, Bain, Styles, Downs.

If so for me
1. Styles
2. Tate
3. Downs
4. Bain -- distant 4th, I'd try to trade back

I think them going 2 EDGEs in FA making 8 figure AAVs tells us they know Bailey and Reese are gone by #7. As I mentioned in the Day 3 pick thread, I think EDGE is still a real possibility at #71. Can we snag a Jacas or Derrick Moore, have them contribute as the second backup at rotational EDGE and have them potentially start in 2027?

 

[method man]

Sure, but I would counter that saying the over/under on Bailey's career is Oweh is not saying they will be equal in 2026. Oweh is in his prime, year 6 and Bailey will be in year 1. It could certainly be that Bailey never improves his run defense in any meaningful way, but it could also be that over time he improves his handusage and becomes a better run defender (even though it will never likely be a strength for him). For example in year 1, Oweh had 421 pass rush snaps against 168 run snaps so while he was not a true designated pass rusher they used him mostly in passing situations, probably some neutral situations.

Yep. I will add we should look at Oweh's walk year in college vs Bailey's. Oweh had 0 sacks his final year at PSU and Bailey had 14.5. Bailey was a much better college football player than Oweh was and that is why he is going top 5 and why Oweh barely slipped into the 1st round

 

[Riggo44]

Well, both guys are older and Diggs has off the field package but they both produced at a high level last year

I'd take Allen as a last resort on a 1-year deal. Diggs is a no go, guy is nuts

 

[SkinsNumberOne]

For me, if we can:
Downs
Styles
or
Trade down and get WR Boston and next best S prospect in either Toledo's Warren or LSU's Haulcy with their next pick in the 2nd round.

I am starting to wonder if trading down is getting higher in their cards.

Last year when they got Tunsil, I felt they set themselves up beautifully for BPA and was disappointed with their approach. I am still unclear on it, but I have heard all of the solid arguments and don't want to rehash it (it's definitely debatable at a minimum).

This year, it's kind of looking similar. Every team is going to have things they can improve. If you are picking at 7 and your needs generally have good value later in the draft thanks to your FA work, you are in a position to trade down. This looks like that script.

Do I think they trade down? Do I even think they should? Like many of us, I think the talent matters. So it's unclear. I like that they have put themselves into a position to have options.

 

[method man]

I'd take Allen as a last resort on a 1-year deal. Diggs is a no go, guy is nuts

I would too but I’m guessing he may just want to stay in LA or call it quits

 

[KDawg]

I think 7 is down to:

Love
Tate
Styles
Downs
Saadiq

I’m not saying we draft Saadiq there… or that we should. I’m just guessing he’s on our board.

 

[method man]

I think 7 is down to:

Love
Tate
Styles
Downs
Saadiq

I’m not saying we draft Saadiq there… or that we should. I’m just guessing he’s on our board.

Nah. AP is showing us in FA how he values the TE position. With Chenal signed, Styles doesn’t have a place.

I wouldn’t rule out an EDGE just yet

 

[KDawg]

Nah. AP is showing us in FA how he values the TE position. With Chenal signed, Styles doesn’t have a place.

I wouldn’t rule out an EDGE just yet

I think Styles still 100% has a place.

The only Edge I can see on the board is Bain and I don’t think we take him as he is opposite Peters wants.

I think AP is showing us any of the offensive skills could be addressed in the draft.

I think Luvu is going to be used as a heat seeking missile to destroy backs in pass pro and a rusher so a hybrid LB/Edge. I think Styles and Reese are both options but expect Reese to be gone.

 

[Anselmheifer]

I think 7 is down to:

Love
Tate
Styles
Downs
Saadiq

I’m not saying we draft Saadiq there… or that we should. I’m just guessing he’s on our board.

That’s a hot take. If I’m going to spend tha much on a TE, they need to be more of a guy that excels at route running. Sadie feels more like the Deebo Samuel of TE’s. A specimen of an athlete, and a YAC machine.

 

[KDawg]

That’s a hot take. If I’m going to spend tha much on a TE, they need to be more of a guy that excels at route running. Sadie feels more like the Deebo Samuel of TE’s. A specimen of an athlete, and a YAC machine.

It’s not really a take. I’m just willing to bet he’s on our board. I think we will have someone higher rated available and he won’t be taken. But I bet he’s there.

 

[skinsinparadise]